William Courtney

@courtneywmh on Twitter

Adjunct Senior Fellow

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in economics, Brown University; BA in economics, West Virginia University

One Page Bio

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

William Courtney is an adjunct senior fellow at the nonprofit, nonpartisan RAND Corporation, and was executive director of the RAND Business Leaders Forum. He cochairs the international advisory council of the America250 Foundation, the nonprofit executive arm of the U.S. Semiquincentennial Commission. Its purpose is to inspire and facilitate commemorations of the 250th anniversary of the founding of the United States in 1776 and to oversee national signature commemorations.

In 2014, Ambassador Courtney retired from Computer Sciences Corporation as senior principal for federal policy strategy. From 1972 through 1999 he was a foreign service officer in the Department of State. He served as ambassador to Kazakhstan, Georgia, and the U.S.-Soviet Bilateral Consultative Commission to implement the Threshold Test Ban Treaty. He was special assistant to the president for Russia, Ukraine, and Eurasia; deputy negotiator in the U.S.-Soviet Defense and Space Talks; deputy executive secretary of the NSC staff; and special assistant to the Under Secretary of State for Political Affairs. He served abroad in Brasilia, Moscow, Geneva, Almaty, and Tbilisi.

Ambassador Courtney is chair-emeritus of the board of trustees of Eurasia Foundation. It carries out programs abroad to improve governance and strengthen civil society. He is a member of the American Academy of Diplomacy and was a member of its board of directors. He was a member of the board of directors of the former World Affairs Council of Washington D.C. He belongs to the Council on Foreign Relations, where in 1977–78 he was an international affairs fellow. He holds a Ph.D. in economics from Brown University and a B.A. in economics from West Virginia University.

Research Focus

Concurrent Non-RAND Positions

Co-Chair of the international advisory council of the America250 Foundation, and chair emeritus of the board of trustees of Eurasia Foundation

Languages

Russian

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: Al-Arabiya; Al Jazeera - English; Angry Planet podcast; APA; Arirang News, Korea; Asharq Al Awsat; BBC; Bloomberg Radio; Brussels Morning; CGTN, China Global Television Network; CNBC Cable Network; CNN International Online; CTV News, Canada; D.C. Debrief, CBN News; Deutsche Welle - English; Formula News, Georgia; Fox News; i24news, Israel; KCRW Press Play; KNX-AM; KPCC-FM AirTalk - Southern California Public; KPCC-FM Online; Meduza, Latvia; MSNBC; NewsNation; News Net; Newsy; NPR News; PRI, Public Radio International; Radio Free Europe; Scripps News; Sky News Australia; Times Radio, UK; TRT World; UnHerd; Voice of America, Georgian Service; Voice of America Radio Network Online; Voice of America Russian; WhoWhatWhy; WION News; WUSA-DC (CBS) - Washington, DC; Yonhap News Agency Online; ZEIT ONLINE

Commentary: The Cipher Brief; Foreign Policy Concepts; Fox News Channel; The Hill; Inkstick; Los Angeles Times; The Moscow Times; The National Interest; Newsweek; Politico; RealClearDefense; RealClearWorld; Reuters; USA Today; U.S. News & World Report; War on the Rocks; The Woodrow Wilson Center

Commentary

Russia

Human Rights Issues in Russia May Offer U.S. Leverage
The 75th anniversary of the Universal Declaration of Human Rights reminds us of how much human rights diplomacy has reshaped and enriched international relations. Inspired by this, Washington might pursue more proactive human rights diplomacy with Moscow. If the United States takes this path, how might it proceed?
Nov 20, 2023
The Hill
Military Strategy

The Black Sea and the Changing Face of Naval Warfare
Uncrewed surface vessel and uncrewed underwater vessel technologies will continue to mature and be employed for an ever-wider range of missions. Today's struggles in the Black Sea may herald a changing face of naval warfare, in which large warships are increasingly vulnerable even to nations that lack substantial navies.
Oct 31, 2023
Defense News
North Atlantic Treaty Organization

Poland and Ukraine: Defending Europe's Future
In the Cold War, West Germany, with robust NATO support, stood guard at the center of the Iron Curtain. Looking ahead, Poland and Ukraine along with NATO will defend Europe's center at the front line. Insights from the West German experience might help them.
Sep 25, 2023
RealClearDefense
Warfare and Military Operations

Why Improve Ukraine's Deep-Strike Capability?
Coordinated deep-strike capabilities—air-launched and ground-launched—will be most effective in degrading Russian forces and operations. Using air and ground launchers would force Russian commanders to devote substantial intelligence, surveillance, and reconnaissance capabilities to attempt to find these systems.
Sep 19, 2023
Defense News
Arms Proliferation and Control

Hard Times for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control
New START is slated to expire in February 2026 and cannot be extended. The next chapter in U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control, if there is to be one, may not be written until rulers in Moscow ease repression at home, pull troops out of Ukraine, and recognize the mutual benefits of reducing, rather than stoking, nuclear tensions.
Aug 28, 2023
Defense News
Russia

An Emboldened West Confronts a Weakened Russia
Russian President Vladimir Putin may remain in office for now, but his power—and Russia's—are ebbing. The West might take advantage of new opportunities.
Jun 27, 2023
The Hill
Ukraine

How Might Ukraine's Counteroffensive End, and What Comes After?
Ukraine may soon launch a counteroffensive against Russian forces entrenched in eastern and southern Ukraine. We consider three ways this counteroffensive might end and their implications for the future.
Jun 14, 2023
RealClearDefense
Security Cooperation

What Is the Long-Term Strategy for Ukraine's Air Force?
It is encouraging that Ukraine might receive F-16s to improve its combat capabilities. Western policymakers might begin thinking now about what the Ukrainian Air Force may require in the future, especially if the Russian threat remains acute.
Jun 6, 2023
Defense News
Fighter Aircraft

F-16s Will Bolster Ukraine's Fighting Force
F-16s going to Ukraine could help it defend against Russian aerial assaults. But their greatest value may be to augment future Ukrainian counteroffensives aimed at retaking occupied land. This will require training and exercising, but Ukrainian forces are fully capable of mastering it.
May 25, 2023
RealClearDefense
Russia

Putin Is Following Brezhnev to a Dead End
Four decades ago, Leonid Brezhnev led the USSR into what many Soviets called the “era of stagnation.” Vladimir Putin is taking Russia down a similar path. The USSR tried to recover by turning to reform-minded leader, Mikhail Gorbachev, but too late. The USSR collapsed. Could Russia?
May 23, 2023
The Hill
Fighter Aircraft

Why Does Ukraine Want Western Jets?
Ever since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, Ukraine has requested Western fighter jets. Why does it want them? Of what use could they be? And what are some of their limitations?
May 3, 2023
RealClearDefense
Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Countering Russia's Nuclear Threat in Europe
President Vladimir Putin's announced plan to put nuclear arms in Belarus may pose risks to NATO's nuclear posture. Three decades after the Soviet collapse, some allies might be uneasy about reenergizing NATO's nuclear mission. But others might argue that not responding to Russia's plans could cause the Kremlin to doubt NATO's nuclear credibility.
Apr 20, 2023
The Hill
Ukraine

Europe: Ukraine's Essential Ally
While the United States is Ukraine's primary military backer, Europe is sharing the war's overall burden, sanctioning Russia, arming Ukraine, and helping prepare it to join the European Union, as well as absorbing huge economic costs. Europe's partnership with the United States on Ukraine may be Western diplomacy's finest hour since the Berlin Wall fell.
Apr 10, 2023
The Hill
Ukraine

Why Blockading Rather Than Retaking Crimea Might Be Kyiv's Best Option
Ukraine may lack the military capability to retake Crimea from Russia. But Kyiv might still achieve some of its key objectives by blockading the peninsula. New technology may ease this task.
Apr 10, 2023
The Moscow Times
Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Putin Could Escalate with Nuclear Testing
Russian President Vladimir Putin has put the world on notice that Russia might resume nuclear explosive testing. He may see this as bolstering his scare tactics over Ukraine by signaling a possible willingness to use nuclear weapons. While testing could also help Russia improve its nuclear arms, politics rather than technology are likely to drive any decision to test.
Mar 6, 2023
The Hill
Russia

To Heal Russia, Exorcise Fear
In ordering the invasion of Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin and his ex-KGB cohort in the Kremlin have invited disaster on Russia. For centuries, Russia's secret police have caused the country harm and terrorized its people. Only by easing its deadly grip might Russians gain freedom.
Mar 2, 2023
The Moscow Times
Russia

What Does Russia's War on Ukraine Mean for the International Order?
Russia's war on Ukraine has shown the danger of Russian revanchism and the risk of living next door to a power that embraces war as a coercive tool. It has also highlighted the West's role as a major protector of the democratic world.
Mar 2, 2023
Discourse
Ukraine

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React
We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.
Feb 20, 2023
Russia

Russia's Appetite May Extend Beyond Ukraine
Unless Russian forces are defeated in Ukraine or withdrawn by new Kremlin rulers, Moscow might assault other post-Soviet neighbors. The West may face limits on the extent to which it could help them thwart such attacks.
Feb 17, 2023
The Hill
Ukraine

How the War in Ukraine Could End Sooner Than Expected
There are predictions aplenty that Russia's war on Ukraine will persist. But it could also end soon. Kremlin regime change, a Russian army collapse, or a Ukrainian win are possible. None of these contingencies should be ruled out.
Jan 17, 2023
The Hill
Nation Building

Politics of Ukrainian Reconstruction
When fighting subsides, Ukraine may undergo reconstruction on the scale of the post–World War II Marshall Plan. Debate is ramping up about core issues, such as the scope of reconstruction, sources of funding, and reforms needed for success. Ukraine and the West might begin now to forge consensus on these issues.
Nov 30, 2022
The Hill
Ukraine

Ukraine's Crimea Conundrum
Ukraine could be prudent to manage expectations about potential Crimea outcomes. Kyiv and its Western partners might benefit from a careful analysis of choices.
Nov 4, 2022
The Hill
Russia

The West and Russia the Day After
In the 1990s, after the breakup of the USSR, the West adapted to and helpfully influenced the birth of 15 new republics. If liberalizing change comes anew, the West may seek to help Russia heal itself for the long term.
Oct 19, 2022
The Hill
Security Cooperation

Protecting Ukraine's Future Security
Western support for Ukraine's future security could depend in part on how the war ends and the extent to which Moscow remains threatening. Ukraine can better protect its security through robust, tangible security ties with the West.
Oct 10, 2022
The Hill
International Economic Relations

Sanctioning Business Leaders in Russia
Western sanctions are ensnaring more Russian business leaders, some of whom say they are unjustly targeted. Can those in the private sector reduce their risks of being designated? Perhaps, if they make difficult choices.
Sep 12, 2022
The Hill
Ukraine

What if Russia's Army Fails in Ukraine?
Fighting in Ukraine will likely continue. But battlefield advantages could continue to ebb and flow, too. The West should prudently prepare for Ukrainian success as well as a less favorable outcome.
Jun 20, 2022
The Hill
Trade Barriers

Unblocking the Black Sea for Ukrainian Grain
As Russia has been blockading ports around Odesa, Ukrainian grain exports in May were more than 60 percent lower than a year ago. Global hunger has hit a new high while 22 million tons of grain in Ukraine could rot if not exported soon.
Jun 15, 2022
The Hill
Ukraine

Geostrategic Consequences of Russia's War Against Ukraine
After two months of fighting in Ukraine, some longer-term geostrategic consequences are coming into focus. Russia may emerge as a massive loser. Perhaps not since the collapse of the USSR has European security been so challenged. But Ukraine and its Western partners are showing that aggression in Europe may not pay.
Apr 26, 2022
The Hill
Ukraine

Rebuilding Ukraine
By leveraging better investment conditions and reforms and broad international support, Ukraine could carry out a well-executed reconstruction program once the fighting ends. It might repair much of the war damage and help Ukraine move into the ranks of faster-growing European economies.
Apr 18, 2022
United Press International
Russia

Russia and Ukraine: The Economic Consequences of Peace
Amid some hopeful signs in Russian-Ukrainian ceasefire talks, it may be useful to keep in mind that the West could gain substantial economic leverage to influence outcomes during and after Russia's war against Ukraine. How it uses this leverage could have far-reaching consequences.
Apr 8, 2022
The Hill
Military Strategy

Russia Destroyed Grozny and Aleppo—Is Kyiv Next?
Russia used a brutal approach in Grozny and Aleppo, and may use a similar approach against Ukraine's cities. But it could be less effective or riskier in Ukraine. Ukraine's determination to resist is strong, and the West is supplying an impressive array of advanced weaponry and intelligence support.
Mar 28, 2022
The Hill
Russia

If Regime Change Were to Come to Moscow
Strains in Russia over the war in Ukraine and punishing economic sanctions could spark regime change in Moscow. Although prospects for this are uncertain, the West might be prudent to begin considering how to deal with any new government.
Mar 18, 2022
The Moscow Times
Russia

Where Is Business in Russia?
Businesses in Russia have little hope of making a full recovery and operating normally in the global economy unless the West lifts its extraordinary sanctions. Political and civic engagement may be essential to protect their value and the interests of shareholders and employees.
Mar 16, 2022
The Hill
Ukraine

Continuity of Government in Ukraine
On February 23 Russia launched a war on Ukraine. Ukraine's president Volodymyr Zelensky and its parliament might accelerate steps to ensure the continuity of government, a need made more urgent because of the risk that Kyiv could soon fall.
Feb 25, 2022
The Hill
Ukraine

Two Choices in Ukraine
Facing existential risk, Ukraine may consider unprecedented steps. Urgent measures might help it protect against a Russian invasion. And if the immediate threat were to ebb, Ukraine might use the time gained to prepare for potential future threats.
Jan 31, 2022
The Hill
Russia

Russia May Underestimate Ukraine and NATO
Moscow has unveiled outlandish security demands that sound aggressive and suggest that it may underestimate both NATO and Ukraine. Kremlin leaders might consider instead seeking a stable European security architecture that protects Russia's interests while also allowing for a vibrant and sovereign Ukraine.
Dec 27, 2021
Moscow Times
Ukraine

If Russia Invaded Ukraine
The United States and NATO worry that Russia may be planning an invasion of Ukraine. A renewed crisis could spur the United States and its NATO allies to go beyond, perhaps well beyond, their responses to Russia's 2014 assault.
Dec 8, 2021
The Hill
Ukraine

Is Russia About to Make a 'Serious Mistake' in Ukraine?
Russian military shifts and stinging Kremlin criticisms of Ukraine are raising questions about Moscow's aims. Russia's seizure and annexation of Crimea and invasion of eastern Ukraine in 2014 led to a strong Western response. What could be in store now?
Nov 15, 2021
The Hill
Russia

Russia's Neighbors Have More Leverage Than They Think
While Ukraine, Belarus, and Georgia may be top priorities for Russia, Moscow has less room for maneuver than its power might suggest. Some of Moscow's difficulties with neighbors could leave openings for the West.
Oct 25, 2021
The National Interest
International Diplomacy

Summit Gives Biden Chance to Nudge Post-Soviet States Toward Democracy
President Biden may invite Armenia, Georgia, Moldova, and Ukraine to his “summit for democracy” in December. By both praising and nudging these imperfect democracies to do more to achieve their democratic potential, Biden could give his agenda more meaning.
Sep 20, 2021
The Hill
Belarus

Moscow Hesitated in Poland—Will It in Belarus?
Forty years ago, Russia used a major military exercise in part to scare Poland's communist leaders into cracking down on protesters. A similar Russian exercise now could be aimed in part at pressuring Belarus. If so, the West could respond in several ways.
Sep 13, 2021
The Hill
Russia

After Afghanistan, Could Russia Misjudge America?
Over the years, the United States has been humbled abroad more than once but bounced back. Now, as it withdraws from Afghanistan, might Russia see the United States as defeated and vulnerable to pressure? This could be an error.
Aug 26, 2021
The Hill
Russia

Which Kremlin Can Investors Expect?
A Kremlin that backs sound macroeconomic policy and a strong private sector could hearten investors. A Kremlin that pursues statist economics and security at all costs could discourage them. Which Kremlin should investors expect?
Aug 12, 2021
The Hill
Russia

Disrespecting Europe Could Cost Russia
Western unity is critical to addressing authoritarian challenges. Brexit, immigration, leadership transition in Germany, and COVID-19 provide grist for Russian propaganda claims of European weakness. But unified EU action on Ukraine, Navalny, and Belarus shows that Europe is a force with which to be reckoned.
Jul 26, 2021
The National Interest
Natural Gas

Depoliticizing Russian Gas in Europe
At their June 16 Summit in Geneva, Presidents Biden and Putin might consider how to reduce the sharp tensions over the Nord Stream 2 gas pipeline project. Cooperation among governments and companies may offer potential.
Jun 11, 2021
The Moscow Times
Russia

Summit a Chance to Clarify U.S.-Russia Relations: RAND Call With Experts
RAND experts discuss possible topics of conversation and potential takeaways from the upcoming summit between the United States and Russia. The summit will be a chance to rebuild and review the countries' fraught relationship.
Jun 10, 2021
Politics and Government

How America Can Help Re-Shape the Post-Soviet Countries
For the post-Soviet states, development could bring better living standards and social conditions and promote more stable politics and inclusive governance. The West would make the most difference by focusing on mid-ranked states, especially those undertaking reforms.
May 17, 2021
The National Interest
Russia

Will Russia's Risk-Aversion Keep It Away from Ukraine?
Russia could blunder in Ukraine as Soviet rulers did in Afghanistan. Unlike then, however, a new Russian thrust into Ukraine could lead to early, heavy casualties. This could quickly bring home to the Kremlin the political costs of any incursion.
Apr 28, 2021
RealClearWorld
Russia

The Biden-Putin Summit: Do the Risks Outweigh the Potential Rewards?
President Biden has proposed that the United States and Russia hold a summit in the coming months. If that happens, major gains may be out of reach at first. Some progress might be possible, but the risks may be greater than at most previous summits.
Apr 27, 2021
The Hill
Russia

Alexei Navalny Has Become a Profile in Courage. This Puts the Kremlin in a Quandary
Prolonging Alexei Navalny's imprisonment, attempting to murder him—or actually succeeding—would only galvanize his supporters. And releasing him could be viewed as a victory for the opposition, making the Kremlin look weak.
Feb 2, 2021
Los Angeles Times
Russia

Russia's Great Wall
China built a wall to protect against foreign invaders, but Russia is erecting a barrier that could weaken its position. Moscow's pressure on neighbors has spurred NATO to bolster its presence in Russia's immediate vicinity.
Jan 25, 2021
The Hill
Arms Proliferation and Control

Arms Control Held Hostage
President-elect Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have wisely promised to extend the 2010 New START Treaty, which cuts long-range nuclear arms. The two leaders may also pursue a broader follow-on accord, but frigid U.S.-Russian relations could put this out of reach. Progress on arms control often comes when political winds are warmer.
Dec 28, 2020
The Hill
Satellites

How to Avoid a Space Arms Race
Some 70 countries and multinational organizations own or operate satellites and there are plans for many more. Multilateral cooperative efforts could help set a foundation for the adoption of transparency and confidence measures that offer realistic hope of reducing risks and protecting freedom of access to space for all nations.
Oct 26, 2020
The Hill
Russia

Belarusian Mortgage on Russia's Future
In September, President Vladimir Putin signaled that Russia was throwing its weight behind embattled Belarusian President Alexander Lukashenko. But any move to enforce Putin's will in Belarus could invite tougher Western sanctions and scare investors. This would exacerbate problems facing Russia's flagging economy.
Oct 5, 2020
The Moscow Times
Georgia (country)

Georgia: From COVID-19 to a Critical Test of Democracy
Georgia has successfully dealt with the COVID-19 outbreak but now must meet the task of conducting free, fair, and transparent parliamentary elections on October 31 and dealing with the economic impacts of the pandemic.
Sep 23, 2020
The National Interest
Belarus

The West's Role in Belarus
Belarus may be on the verge of political change. If allowed to help, how could the West support free and fair elections and the formation of a legitimate government?
Aug 18, 2020
RealClearWorld
Russia

Has Congress Captured Russia Policy?
A Washington axiom is that the president writes foreign policy and Congress only edits it. But in recent years Congress has shown more initiative, as in expanding sanctions, shifting U.S. forces closer to Russia and promoting human rights. Under the next president, is Congress likely to retain this lead?
Aug 17, 2020
The Hill
Nuclear Deterrence

Negotiating with Great Powers on Nuclear Arms
New START, the U.S.-Russia arms control treaty, expires in February 2021. Washington insists that any follow-on accord must include China. But overcoming Beijing's reticence to engage in nuclear talks will likely take deft diplomacy, time, and patience.
Aug 3, 2020
RealClearDefense
Security Cooperation

Can America Weaken the Russia-Iran Axis?
America's slow-motion retreat in Syria could embolden Iran and Russia and perhaps lead them to underestimate U.S. resolve to protect its interests in the Middle East. Clearer U.S. priorities and more deliberate engagement could reduce risk and help avoid miscalculation.
Jul 31, 2020
Newsweek
Russia

Russia Is Eyeing the Mediterranean. The U.S. and NATO Must Be Prepared
Russia is seeking more access and freedom of movement in the Mediterranean region, and is bolstering its military footprint to achieve this objective. The United States and NATO could respond by developing a more robust southern strategy, with a reinforced air and naval presence, respectively.
Jun 30, 2020
Newsweek
Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Nuclear Testing Not Needed Now
Trump administration officials are reported to have recently discussed conducting a nuclear test, breaking a moratorium the United States has observed since 1992. Such a move is not necessary to ensure the reliability of the U.S. arsenal and could increase threats to U.S. and allied security by giving a green light to others to conduct nuclear tests.
Jun 11, 2020
Newsweek
Russia

Russia's Challenge and Syria's Chance
With much of Syria lying in ruins, Russia can back a revived United Nations–led peacemaking process, or see the West rebuff its appeals for large-scale aid. If Russia chooses wisely, the West, wealthy Gulf countries, and China could help. If Moscow procrastinates, the West may withhold assistance and continue cooperation with regional partners.
May 20, 2020
Newsweek
Russia

Why Russia Struggles to Feed Its Great-Power Addiction
Russia has become less cooperative and pursued more autarky in recent years. If Moscow continues this path of resisting globalization, it could be left behind.
May 11, 2020
The National Interest
Political Reform Movements

COVID-19 Crisis Could Spur Post-Soviet Fixes
Much of the post-Soviet space remains afflicted with authoritarian rule, inefficient economies, corruption, and regional tensions. The COVID-19 crisis could prod countries to address key issues, but they will need help. Targeted Western aid could help willing countries make progress.
May 8, 2020
The Moscow Times
Nuclear Disarmament

New START Is Not NAFTA
The 2010 New START Treaty with Russia reduces long-range nuclear arms. President Trump may seek a different deal, however, as he did in renegotiating NAFTA. But NAFTA talks succeeded because America had predominant leverage and because Canada and Mexico are friends. Neither holds true with Russia.
Apr 8, 2020
The Hill
Russia

Russia's Ties with the West Rhyme
With Vladimir Putin seeking constitutional changes that could allow him to stay as president until the 2030s, Russia's strained relations with the West may persist. But if it chooses, Russia can chart a more dynamic future with closer Western ties.
Mar 23, 2020
The Hill
Russia

Wake-Up Call for Russia
Deteriorating living standards have put Russians on edge, and fears of economic stagnation have risen. Russia has the capacity to do better. So why is the economy stagnating?
Mar 9, 2020
The Hill
Nuclear Deterrence

Stabilizing the Nuclear Cold War
Russia and the United States are still locked in a nuclear cold war. Thousands of nuclear weapons are deployed, some on high alert. Although the United States prudently withdrew from several past arms control treaties with Russia, it could be in America's interest to extend New START.
Feb 13, 2020
Inkstick
Nuclear Deterrence

Return of Nuclear Doomsday
Elder statesmen are again warning of nuclear dangers. But have they risen? Maybe, but they remain only faint echoes of Cold War era risks, creating an opportunity to deliberately and carefully take steps to avoid future risks.
Dec 12, 2019
The Hill
Georgia (country)

Whither Georgia?
Georgia's status as a post-Soviet democratic leader is under challenge. A flawed presidential election, use of force against protesters, and political manipulations have strained public confidence and brought mounting public protests. Domestic calm may hinge on improving political dialogue and conducting free and fair parliamentary elections next year.
Dec 9, 2019
The National Interest
Syria

Russia's Risky Game Plan for Syria
It will take time to assess the extent to which Russia has “won“ in Syria. Absent a peaceful end to the conflict and an infusion of large-scale Western aid, downside risks for Russia could take some of the bloom off of its rose in Syria.
Oct 29, 2019
The National Interest
How Can the United States Support Democracies in the Former USSR?
The West has only modest capacity to influence circumstances in most post-Soviet countries. In Ukraine, Georgia, Armenia and Moldova, however, the West has the potential to make a real difference by supporting civil society and improved governance.
Sep 16, 2019
The National Interest
International Diplomacy

Reagan's Cold War Lessons for Handling Russia
Rising public protests in Russia may be putting the Kremlin on the defensive at home. But Moscow is playing offense abroad, challenging the West more than at any time since Ronald Reagan's presidency. Reagan's strategy to counter the Kremlin back then offers insights that could help guide U.S. policy today.
Aug 9, 2019
RealClearWorld
A Democratic Spring Could Be Stirring in Eurasia. The West's Quiet Support Can Help
An incipient Eurasian “democratic spring” may not yet be on the horizon, but political awareness and civil society are gaining ground. The West could contribute by continuing to help to fill information vacuums, and by offering training and support for nurturing civil society, conducting free and fair elections, and developing competitive politics.
Jun 13, 2019
Newsweek
Russia

Mueller Report May Result in Russian Sanctions but Not Better Behavior
The Mueller report could help mobilize political pressure in the United States for a stronger posture toward Russian activities that harm American and allied interests. But the Kremlin will likely still see propaganda, disinformation, and subterfuge as useful tools to undermine America's values and cohesion.
Apr 26, 2019
The Hill
Russia

Russia Chooses Paupers as Partners, with Questionable Benefit
By leveraging the efficiencies of globalization and cultivating ties with prosperous partners, Russia could increase its economic potential and improve living standards for its people. And by engaging more positively with the world, it could gain influence in the forums that matter, such as the G20 and multilateral institutions.
Feb 14, 2019
Newsweek
Democratic Bright Spots in the South Caucasus
Democratic bright spots are emerging in Armenia and Georgia despite their being wedged between less-than-democratic regional powers. Both countries seek to consolidate democratic gains and overcome poverty while managing daunting challenges from Russia and separatist conflicts. While pursuing these priorities, the countries deserve continued, strong Western support.
Jan 23, 2019
The National Interest
Peacekeeping and Stability Operations

America's Absence Could Be Syria's New Nightmare
President Trump's decision to withdraw U.S. troops from Syria reverses his administration's recent policy of retaining them as long as Iranian troops stay. U.S. withdrawal would give Bashar al-Assad, Iran, and Russia freer rein to subdue opposition forces. And Assad could feel emboldened to act with greater impunity and brutality.
Jan 10, 2019
The National Interest
Russia

In Venezuela, a Potential U.S.-Russian Crisis?
In December, two supersonic nuclear-capable Russian bombers visited Venezuela, the third such excursion for the warplanes since 2008. Might Moscow intend to pose a threat, perhaps even nuclear, to the Western Hemisphere? If so, how could Washington respond?
Jan 8, 2019
The Hill
Russia

No Russian Let-Up on Ukraine
Moscow's seizure of Crimea and war in eastern Ukraine have led the West to sanction Russians and expand aid to Ukraine, and NATO to shift land and air forces eastward. Expanded Russian coercion may draw more NATO naval power closer to Russia’s shores and lead to tougher sanctions.
Dec 7, 2018
Fox News Channel
Arms Proliferation and Control

Congress Can Save Arms Control
The Trump administration is seeking agreements with North Korea and Iran to eliminate their nuclear arms potential. Success may hinge on cooperation between the White House and Congress.
Nov 27, 2018
The Hill
International Diplomacy

Effective Responses to Russian Misbehavior
Sanctions on Russians can be a powerful and effective tool, but in some cases there is a risk of spillover damage to other United States interests. It is worth considering whether America's interests may be best served by ensuring that penalties applied to Russia for misbehavior hit home against those responsible for it.
Nov 20, 2018
The Moscow Times
Russia

Russia's Neighbors Want Alternatives
The longer Russia delays in improving relations with its neighbors, the more likely they will pursue alternative options. It is also likely that tensions will persist between those neighbors and Russia—and in Russia's relationship with the West. Efforts to ease that tension should be high on the list of Western priorities with Russia.
Oct 4, 2018
The National Interest
Russia

Walking a Fine Line on Russian Sanctions
The United States and its allies are increasingly frustrated over malign activities by Russia. This week the U.S. unveiled new sanctions, and is expected to impose even more in the future. But choosing sanctions requires care. Their purpose should be to penalize Russia for misbehavior, but not to isolate Russians.
Aug 22, 2018
Reuters
Information Operations

Here's How Russia Will Try to Interfere in the 2018 Elections
Russia will threaten U.S. midterm elections in November, although by how much is unclear. Moscow might be more restrained this year, but it could be wilier.
Aug 14, 2018
Fox News Channel
Russia

Russia's Wars and Trump
At the July 16 summit in Helsinki, President Trump might stress that the West will persist in imposing costs on Russia for current and any future malign interventions. At the same time, he could offer to work with Putin in the search for peace in Syria and Ukraine if Moscow were to decide to withdraw its forces.
Jul 11, 2018
The Hill
Russia

Western Unity Is Best for Russian Summitry
In preparing for his summit with Russian President Vladimir Putin, President Donald Trump could benefit from a coordinated Western approach toward Moscow as a prelude. Absent this, his hand will be seriously weakened.
Jul 5, 2018
The American Interest
International Diplomacy

Trump and Putin Should Start Small at Helsinki Summit
Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will hold their first formal summit on July 16. Their agenda will likely include the main sources of strain in relations, but they might find it easier to make concrete progress if they start with lower-profile issues as Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan did at their first summit.
Jul 2, 2018
Reuters
International Diplomacy

Six Lessons for Today from Past Summits
To prepare for possible meetings with his North Korean and Russian counterparts, President Trump can learn lessons from decades of high-profile summits between U.S. presidents and Kremlin leaders.
Jun 5, 2018
Fox News Channel
Georgia (country)

Where Is Georgia Headed?
Since its renewed independence from the Soviet Union in 1991, Georgia has made steady progress toward full European and Euro-Atlantic integration, and stabilized relations with Russia. Continuing on this path is a key test of whether it is still possible for reforming former Soviet countries to integrate into the Euro-Atlantic community.
May 23, 2018
The National Interest
Security Cooperation

How Russia's Blunders Abroad Have Galvanized Europe
Russia overrates the efficacy of the military and underrates political and economic assets. Through this outdated prism the Kremlin sees Europe as America's weak sister. This miscalculation has led Russia repeatedly to err, as shown by decades of frustrated efforts to divide Europeans and split them from the U.S.
May 10, 2018
The Moscow Times
Russia

Russia Chooses Autarchy—and Isolation—Over Cooperation
Russia says it is ending a centuries-long quest to join the West and preparing for “100 years of geopolitical solitude.” If Russia goes this way it will be because of its own unwise policies, not a Western cold shoulder.
May 7, 2018
The Cipher Brief
Chemical Terrorism

Arms Control Hostage to Skripal and Syria Attacks
Two prominent poisoning assassination attempts and Kremlin denials of gas attacks by Syrian President Bashar al-Assad raise doubts about Moscow's commitment to the purposes of the Chemical Weapons Convention. Never has the future of negotiated arms control involving Russia been at greater risk.
Apr 19, 2018
RealClearDefense
Russia

Moscow Is Going Too Far
Russia has become more daring with the West with its retaliatory expulsions and may face a high price. An angered West could turn from expulsions to economic countermeasures.
Apr 3, 2018
The Hill
Russia

Putin Can Learn from Gorbachev on How to Gain from Future U.S. Talks
Vladimir Putin has won a flawed election to a fourth term as Russia's president, and Donald Trump has suggested the two will likely meet soon. For the Kremlin leader, however, a summit may draw shortcomings into sharper relief. If the two presidents meet, several key issues will await them.
Mar 22, 2018
The Hill
Russia

Putin's Boasting About Nuclear Weapons Won't Help Him in the Russian Election
In a March 1 address to the nation, Russian President Vladimir Putin evoked Soviet-era exaggeration, proclaiming barely feasible economic and social goals and boasting of nuclear arms that are unlikely to change the strategic balance. Continued exaggeration could sap public confidence in the legitimacy of Russia's ruling system and leaders.
Mar 15, 2018
Newsweek
Information Operations

Free Lunches for Adversaries
When leaders take actions that are unpopular with wide audiences, propagandists have it easy. While Western leaders should not make propaganda potential the primary factor when weighing policy decisions, neither should they wholly disregard the opportunities that unpopular policies will offer adversaries.
Feb 13, 2018
U.S. News & World Report
Iran's Efforts to Create Instability Abroad Have Led to Protests at Home
Iran has spent billions of dollars in its quest to be a regional leader, but its main achievement has been to spark instability across a wide swath of the Middle East. Ordinary Iranians are struggling and protesters are urging a retreat from costly foreign fights and more aid at home.
Jan 12, 2018
The National Interest
Not All Russian Oligarchs Are Alike
The U.S. Secretary of the Treasury must report to Congress the main “oligarchs” in Russia, judged by their closeness to the “regime” and net worth. This broad approach, not aimed at specific wrongdoers, poses several risks.
Jan 8, 2018
The Hill
International Trade Law

Why Political Risks May Dampen World Economies in 2018
The world economy has reached its strongest point since the global financial crisis a decade ago. But rising political risks may cloud prospects in 2018 and perhaps beyond.
Jan 7, 2018
Fox News Channel
Peacekeeping and Stability Operations

Russia Trapped in Syria
Russia alone can neither guarantee the future security of Syria nor mobilize the resources to enable it to recover and rebuild. Only by linking arms with the international community to edge out Iran, forge broader-based governance and spur economic growth can Russia hope to achieve lasting success in Syria.
Dec 20, 2017
The Cipher Brief
International Diplomacy

Kremlin Untruths Boomerang
The main sources of strain in Moscow's ties with the West are actions, such as Russia's aggression in Ukraine. But untruths add fuel to the fire and can provoke stronger Western reactions and impede the search for solutions.
Dec 4, 2017
RealClearWorld
International Diplomacy

Europe's Hour Is Here
Since World War II, the United States and the United Kingdom have played disproportionate roles in dealing with Russia. Now continental Europe must assume more of the burden in advancing Western values and interests with an unpredictable and at times unruly Moscow.
Sep 16, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Georgia (country)

Georgia Wants Reassurance That America Will Help Deter Russia
Georgia is an emerging democracy in a difficult region with mainly authoritarian regimes nearby. To overcome severe challenges from Russian military occupation and economic weakness, it deserves sustained Western support.
May 25, 2017
The National Interest
International Diplomacy

How the West Can Press Putin to Keep Assad in Order
Moscow has achieved tactical successes in Syria, but without Western and regional help, its long-term strategic interests could be at risk. Denying strong evidence that the regime of Bashar al-Assad attacked civilians with sarin gas makes it harder for Moscow to obtain the Western and regional help it needs to secure its interests there.
Apr 24, 2017
Newsweek
Belarus: Between Russia and the West
Public demonstrations in Minsk and across Russia hint that winds of political change and disillusionment with stagnation and corruption may be reaching both countries. Their leaders will blame the West, try to ride out the protests and, despite differences, will likely stick together.
Mar 29, 2017
The National Interest
International Diplomacy

How Putin Ensnares
President Vladimir Putin is Russia's charmer-in-chief, with years of experience in high-level diplomacy. As part of Russia's influence operations, Putin may seek to entice or suborn Western leaders. How might he try to win them over?
Mar 18, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
International Diplomacy

How to Partner with Putin
Improving relations with Russia is a worthy goal. President Donald Trump could seek to partner with Moscow on some issues, like North Korea, while keeping up heat on others, such as aggression in Ukraine.
Mar 4, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
Security Cooperation

No Quick Fix with Russia
A series of small steps is more likely to improve Western and Russian security than an attempt at a total reset. At the same time, sanctions against Russia over its actions in Ukraine, and NATO actions to reassure and protect allies, must continue.
Jan 3, 2017
U.S. News & World Report
International Diplomacy

Can Trump Make a Deal with Putin?
If executed properly, President-elect Trump's diplomacy could help reverse a destabilizing downward spiral in U.S.-Russian relations and create a vision of what normal relations might entail.
Dec 5, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
International Diplomacy

Can Trump Really Do Deals with Vladimir Putin?
Russia is a declining economic power whose foreign policy has led to isolation and criticism. But Putin may have an inflated sense of Russia's importance and expect one-sided U.S. concessions. If so, diplomacy could run into headwinds early in the Trump administration.
Nov 21, 2016
Newsweek
International Diplomacy

Righting Relations With Russia
Russia's current anti-Western stridency coincides with rising internal repression. That may limit what the next U.S. president can do to improve relations.
Oct 31, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
Syria

Only the U.S. Can Save Syrians
Washington must act soon to raise the costs of Syrian and Russian killing in Aleppo. Otherwise, the quarter-million people who live there could be in danger, and the Kremlin might think that it can mount further challenges to the West.
Oct 6, 2016
USA Today
Russia

Russian Propaganda Is Pervasive, and America Is Behind the Power Curve in Countering It
Even as Washington pursues cooperation with Moscow on Syria and other issues, America should expose Russia's obsession with propaganda and disinformation.
Sep 13, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
Russia

The West Must Do Far More to Keep Putin at Bay
Russia is more willing than the West to use military power, even though it has less of it. The West should reconsider whether its efforts to deter Russian military interference are enough.
Aug 27, 2016
Newsweek
Russia

How to Counter Putin's Subversive War on the West
Russian cybercrime, Olympics doping, and other active measures have one thing in common: Moscow admits no wrongdoing. These scandals exacerbate the frigid relations between Moscow and the West. Diplomacy sometimes works slowly, but it helps.
Aug 1, 2016
Newsweek
Russia

Putin Is Trying to Bully Europe into Dropping Sanctions
Seeking relief from Western sanctions, the Kremlin is waging a campaign of public distortion and intimidation to split Europe from America, and Europeans from each other. But many of its tactics are clumsy and self-defeating.
Jun 11, 2016
Newsweek
Russia

Russia's Great Power Choice
The Donbas occupation is straining Russia's economy, world power status, and relationship with the West. Only by pulling out of eastern Ukraine and reforming its economy can Russia gain broader acceptance and reach its potential as a great power.
Jun 1, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
Georgia (country)

Georgia's Delicate Foreign Policy Dance
Given the dangerous environment and the small size and relative military weakness of Georgia, it wisely pursues a good neighbor policy in all directions. Still, the country must improve its defense posture and for Georgia, the main security balancer is the United States.
May 25, 2016
The National Interest
Russia

How Russia Undermines Nuclear Security
Russian aggression in Ukraine and nuclear saber rattling are jeopardizing the very global nonproliferation efforts that this week's Nuclear Security Summit in Washington seeks to further. Moscow's actions deserve a stronger response than they have received.
Apr 1, 2016
The National Interest
Russia

Russia's Great Power Future
A penchant for zero-sum statecraft and coercing neighbors lessens Russia's stature. By cooperating more in the international arena, Russia could become a greater power.
Mar 21, 2016
Newsweek
Syria

The West Should Accommodate Russia to Secure Peace with Assad in Syria
Effective and enduring political settlements result from quid pro quos, not irrational pursuit of one-sided advantage. Recognizing that contending parties have legitimate interests in the complex Syria conflict could help bring an end to a destructive war in a volatile but vital region.
Mar 18, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
Security Cooperation

Is a Syria Truce in Putin's Best Interest?
Moscow remains ambivalent but the West and its Arab partners could improve cease-fire prospects in Syria. They will have to drive the peace process to maintain pressure for political accommodation and also do more to help the rebels they back avert a military imbalance.
Feb 18, 2016
Newsweek
Russia

The Tide Is Going Out on Putin
Russia is losing ground in domestic politics, economics, and foreign policy. It could take steps to strengthen its position, such as withdrawing from Ukraine, privatizing inefficient state enterprises, and improving the investment climate.
Jan 25, 2016
Newsweek
Nation Building

Georgia Needs Support from the U.S. and the West
Georgia is poised to make big changes to reinvigorate its democracy and economy, but it needs support to deter risks and advance progress. With one-fifth of its territory occupied by Russia and facing risks every day, Georgia needs more Western aid, including military training, technology, and defensive arms.
Jan 5, 2016
U.S. News & World Report
Syria

Bosnia Was Hard, Syria Is Harder
To find peace in Syria, cooperation among outside powers will be an essential first step. But before going forward, the great powers should soberly assess prospects for an enduring peace accord, as well as the resources required.
Nov 16, 2015
Foreign Policy Concepts
Russia

Could the Russian Jet Crash in Egypt Prompt a Change of Direction for Putin and Russia?
If ISIS was responsible for the downing of Metrojet Flight 9268, a Russian passenger jet, this may alter the strategic equation for Moscow.
Nov 9, 2015
Fox News Channel
Russia

The West Needs to Take a Tougher Line with Putin
By responding more robustly to Russia's interventions, the West could reduce military asymmetries in Ukraine and Syria and improve prospects for negotiated outcomes.
Nov 1, 2015
Newsweek
Russia

What Is Putin Really Up to in Syria?
Russia wants to be sure that it's not ignored if and when the West succeeds in implementing a broader, more effective solution to the Syria-Iraq-ISIL problem. This is a task far beyond Russia's capabilities, but one that America, the West, and regional powers may be able to accomplish.
Oct 2, 2015
Politico
Eurasia Facing Tough Choices for the Future
There is much to be said for Eurasia's rich ethnic, national, religious, and cultural diversity. In the economic sphere, however, Eurasians should reassess bad habits, such as weak property rights, centralized state control, and associated corruption.
Aug 13, 2015
The Moscow Times
International Diplomacy

It's Time to Reboot Our Relationship with Russia and Iran's Neighbors
In implementing the prospective Iran nuclear agreement, the West cannot forget its engagement in the vulnerable South Caucasus. The Iran deal changes the equation for all three countries and perhaps opens new opportunities.
Jul 28, 2015
Newsweek
Iran

Iran Deal or No Deal
A U.S. rejection of the Iran nuclear agreement would send the wrong message, not only to Iran but also to America's closest allies, and it would not serve American interests in the region.
Jul 22, 2015
War on the Rocks
Russia

Will Putin Gamble All on a Broader Ukraine Invasion?
If the Kremlin is contemplating further action in Ukraine, it faces a tough choice. The decision could have an enduring impact on Russia's fortunes.
May 26, 2015
Newsweek
International Diplomacy

How Durable Is the China-Russia 'Friendship?'
Though China and Russia share key economic interests and oppose what they claim to be a U.S.-dominated world order, their relationship over time promises to be uneven and tense.
May 13, 2015
Reuters, The Great Debate blog
Ukraine Crisis Is a Geopolitical Game Changer
Russia's aggression abroad and repression at home have altered the basic assumptions of earlier Western policy. By misjudging the tolerance for aggression in Europe, Moscow is bringing on the encirclement it fears. The West is now better prepared to deal with any further aggression and more confident that Ukraine's future will be as part of an enlarged Europe.
Apr 17, 2015
U.S. News & World Report
Russia

The Next European Flashpoints
The West's most pressing task is to help Ukraine defend itself and survive economic catastrophe. But the West also needs a broader strategy to discourage future Russian coercion of neighbors, help them protect themselves, and counter President Vladimir Putin's false narrative about Western intentions and lack of political will.
Feb 17, 2015
The National Interest
International Diplomacy

RAND Experts Discuss the Options for Ukraine
A cease-fire agreement could stop the fighting in Ukraine by Sunday. RAND experts William Courtney and Olga Oliker discuss what was accomplished during the summit in Minsk, whether the U.S. should arm Ukraine, and what other options exist for supporting Ukraine.
Feb 12, 2015
Energy

Can Eurasian Energy Compete?
Cheaper oil, government interference, and market dynamics jeopardize the future of Russian and Caspian energy. To be globally competitive, Azerbaijan, Kazakhstan, Russia, and Turkmenistan should let the private sector play a greater role and make more decisions on commercial, rather than political grounds.
Jan 16, 2015
The National Interest
Russia

How Russia Can Recover from Its Economic and Strategic Decline
Few expect that Moscow will cede Crimea or end its opposition to NATO expansion anytime soon. But Russia can still begin to reverse its strategic decline. Expanding opportunities for Russia's people, reforming the economy, and improving relations with neighbors are the way forward.
Dec 24, 2014
U.S. News & World Report
Security Cooperation

The Greatest Challenge to U.S.-European Security Cooperation Today: The Ukraine Crisis
Germany and America are leading Western policy in addressing the Russia-Ukraine crisis. The basic strategy is to support Ukraine and pressure Moscow to halt aggression, while leaving the door open to diplomacy. Sustaining Western unity is essential, but may not be easy to achieve.
Dec 8, 2014
The National Interest
Georgia (country)

Rough and Tumble of Building Democracy in Georgia
Leadership squabbles and instincts for retribution are testing Georgia's democracy. If leaders do not come together to strengthen the political system and governance, Georgia's future could hang in the balance.
Nov 26, 2014
The Woodrow Wilson Center
Nuclear Deterrence

Celebrating the Success of Project Sapphire
Twenty years ago this week, the United States transported over 600 kilograms of at-risk, weapons-usable highly enriched uranium (HEU) from Kazakhstan to Oak Ridge, Tennessee, for safekeeping. Kazakhstan had the courage to trust its new relationship with the U.S. to help prevent the proliferation of dangerous material to countries that might seek to build nuclear weapons.
Nov 21, 2014
The National Interest
Ukraine

Hitting the Pause Button: The 'Frozen Conflict' Dilemma in Ukraine
Frozen conflicts describe places where fighting took place and has come to an end, yet no overall political solution, such as a peace treaty, has been reached. Ukraine is likely to host such conflicts for some time, in Crimea and the Donbas region. Georgia's experience offers lessons for Ukraine.
Nov 7, 2014
The National Interest
Russia

One Day in the Life of Russia
Russia faces major challenges, some self-inflicted. Freedoms vital to the creation of a modern civil society are declining. Dominant, state-controlled energy and aerospace companies are losing ground, weakening a strained economy. Russia's relationship with Europe, its most important economic partner and a cultural beacon, is fracturing.
Sep 23, 2014
The National Interest
Ukraine

A Diplomatic Solution for Ukraine
Despite uncertainty about Russian military plans and the outcome of Ukrainian operations against pro-Russian separatists, it's not too soon to consider how to lay the foundations for a negotiated solution. If Moscow were unwilling to reach a fair settlement, the West would have options to increase its leverage.
Aug 27, 2014
The National Interest