Molly Dunigan

Where Will All the Wagner Group Mercenaries Go Now That Russia Has Exiled Their Leader?

Russian oligarch turned warlord Yevgeny Prigozhin is in exile in Belarus, but what will become of the tens of thousands of fighters who signed up to risk their lives for a paycheck or a ticket out of jail? It seems likely they will continue fighting, mostly because they have few better options.

The Wagner Group Will Live to Fight Another Day

Yevgeny Prigozhin led Wagner Group fighters in what appeared to be a direct challenge to the Russian military establishment. But it's unlikely that the Kremlin will dissolve Wagner's paramilitary enterprise. It is too significant to Russia's greater geostrategic aims and economic strength.

Russian Mercenaries in Great-Power Competition: Strategic Supermen or Weak Link?

The weaknesses within Russian mercenary forces and within the Russian state in relation to press-ganged youths, conscripts, and casualties may offer opportunities for exploitation in great-power competition. These broader weaknesses in Russian national will to fight could be examined to identify more ways to prevent Russia from aggressively undermining Western democracy.

Privatizing the Military Unlikely to Be a Viable Solution in Afghanistan

Operational contractors are now an entrenched part of the Department of Defense’s total force and are here to stay. But replacing U.S. military personnel with contractors is not likely to be a militarily effective solution for the Afghanistan problem.

Military Security Contractors Get PTSD, Too

Largely absent from the conversation about the use of military security contractors are the parallel issues of mental health and the deployment-related stress contractors can face.

Out of the Shadows, Into the Light: Why Americans Should Care About the Health of Contractors Deploying to Conflict Environments

In contrast to the numerous mental health resources available to members of the U.S. military, very few (if any) resources are available to help private contractors struggling with mental health problems. It is in the best interest of all involved to ensure that contractors receive the support and treatment they need.

A Lesson from Iraq War: How to Outsource War to Private Contractors

Both to repeat the successes of private military contracting and to avoid the mistakes of contractors in the recent wars, the Department of Defense must consider several points specific to security contractors, writes Molly Dunigan.

High Hopes for Philippine Peace Plan

The government has successfully used a combination of counterinsurgency strategies against the Moro Islamic Liberation Front in recent years, raising expectations that the new peace deal will also succeed—and in a manner that favors the government's interests, writes Molly Dunigan.

U.S. Control of Contractors in Iraq Is Vital

With U.S. troops out of Iraq, the U.S. presence there will fall to 5,000 private security contractors....The experience with private security contractors during the war was fraught with challenges that pose risks now, writes Molly Dunigan.

Report

Anticipating Flashpoints with Russia: Patterns and Drivers

The authors combined quantitative and qualitative modes of analysis to better understand and anticipate flashpoints with Russia.

Report

Creating Readiness Metrics for the Army Civilian Workforce: A Way Ahead for Integrating Readiness into Civilian Workforce Planning

The authors develop a definition of and model for measuring civilian workforce readiness to inform Army policies and practices using qualitative methods, with which they identify potential data sources for readiness metrics.

Report

Will to Fight of Private Military Actors: Applying Cognitive Maneuver to Russian Private Forces

An adaptation of the RAND-developed military will-to-fight model highlights potential opportunities to use cognitive maneuver to counter Russian-hired private military actors' operational effectiveness around the globe.

Report

Gaining the Edge: Identifying and Leveraging Frameworks for Enabling Army Contributions to Competition

This report supports the U.S. Army's effort to rethink its roles and responsibilities to meet the demands of competition with near peers below the threshold of armed conflict.

Report

Improving Transition Assistance for Reserve Component Members

The authors identify unmet needs for transitioning reserve component members, assess the Transition Assistance Program (TAP), and recommend ways to improve TAP's effectiveness in addressing reserve component members' transition needs.

Commentary

Trauma in the U.S. Intelligence Community: Risks and Responses

If the U.S. Intelligence Community (IC) fails to address the needs of employees exposed to workplace trauma — whether deployed or at headquarters — consequences include negative effects on employees' well-being and on the IC's overall quality of work.

Report

Civilian Post-Deployment Reintegration: A Review and Analysis of Practices Across U.S. Federal Agencies

This report reviews and analyzes assessments of the practices that U.S. federal agencies use to reintegrate civilians following domestic or overseas deployments to high-threat environments.

Report

Army Expeditionary Civilian Demand: Forecasting Future Requirements for Civilian Deployments

As the largest provider of government civilians to support U.S. military operations, the Army stands to benefit to a great extent from a more robust process for forecasting future demand for its civilian workforce.

Report

Manpower Alternatives to Enhance Total Force Capabilities: Could New Forms of Reserve Service Help Alleviate Military Shortfalls?

Changes in employment stability, family structure, and economic pressures have created challenges for the U.S. military reserve component. Modifying assumptions about Reserve duty can improve recruitment, performance, development, and retention.

Report

Human Capital Needs for the Department of Defense Operational Contract Support Planning and Integration Workforce

This comprehensive review of the U.S. Department of Defense operational contract support (OCS) planning and integration workforce identifies gaps between doctrine and practice, recommending several options to address these shortfalls.

Report

Sustaining the Army's Reserve Components as an Operational Force

This report identifies emerging policy lessons regarding the use of, and reforms to, the U.S. Army's Reserve Components (RCs) as an operational reserve derived from analyses of their contributions to recent contingency operations.

Report

A Review of Alternative Methods to Inventory Contracted Services in the Department of Defense

Concerned about U.S. Department of Defense contracts for private-sector services, Congress mandated development of an inventory of contract activities. RAND conducted a review of the system, stakeholder needs, and alternative data sources.

Journal Article

Moving Beyond Population-Centric Vs. Enemy-Centric Counterinsurgency

Historically, insurgency is one of the most prevalent forms of armed conflict and it is likely to remain common in the foreseeable future.

Report

Expeditionary Civilians: Creating a Viable Practice of Civilian Deployment Within the U.S. Interagency Community and Among Foreign Defense Organizations

This report describes the requirements that generate the need for deployable civilians, the types of missions civilians support, and the methods that U.S. and foreign government organizations use to identify, select, track and deploy civilians.

Research Brief

Expeditionary Civilians: Informing Department of Defense Civilian Deployment Policy and Practice

RAND conducted an end-to-end review and analysis of Department of Defense civilian deployment to inform policy and practice for using deployable civilians to meet mission needs ten to 20 years into the future.

Report

Expeditionary Civilians: Creating a Viable Practice of Department of Defense Civilian Deployment

This research presents the results of a review and analysis of DoD civilian deployment, assesses the viability of DoD civilian deployment practice, and proposes a systematic approach to developing and maintaining DoD's civilian deployment capability.

Report

Authorities and Mechanisms for Purchased Care at the Department of Veterans Affairs

The Department of Veterans Affairs (VA) furnishes purchased care services through an array of programs, each with different requirements and processes. A strategy for purchased care is needed to design an effective purchased care program.

Infographic

Out of the Shadows: What We Know About the Well-Being and Experiences of Private Contractors Working in Conflict Environments

Private contractors deployed in conflict zones experience stressors known to have negative physical and mental health implications for military personnel. We examine how this

Report

Out of the Shadows: The Health and Well-Being of Private Contractors Working in Conflict Environments

Deployed contractors may be exposed to the same stressors as military personnel. A RAND survey examined the mental and physical health of contractors, their deployment experiences, and their access to and use of health care resources.

Report

Counterinsurgency Scorecard: Afghanistan in Early 2013 Relative to Insurgencies Since World War II

Previous RAND research on historical insurgencies found that a conflict's overall balance of good and bad factors and practices perfectly discriminated its outcome. A RAND study applied this scorecard approach to Afghanistan in early 2013.

Report

Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies

Building on a 2010 RAND study of the 30 insurgencies begun and completed between 1978 and 2008, this study added 41 new cases to the data set, allowing comparisons across all 71 insurgencies begun and completed worldwide since World War II.

Report

Paths to Victory: Detailed Insurgency Case Studies

This companion volume to Paths to Victory: Lessons from Modern Insurgencies offers in-depth case studies of 41 insurgencies since World War II. Each case breaks the conflict into phases and examines the trajectory that led to the outcome.

Research Brief

The Value and Limitations of Minimalist Stabilization Efforts

Assesses the utility and limitations of minimalist stabilization -- small-scale interventions designed to stabilize a partner government engaged in violent conflict -- and proposes policy recommendations to improve the outcomes of such operations.

Report

The Uses and Limits of Small-Scale Military Interventions

Assesses the utility and limitations of minimalist stabilization -- small-scale interventions designed to stabilize a partner government engaged in violent conflict -- and proposes policy recommendations to improve the outcomes of such operations.

Report

Characterizing and Exploring the Implications of Maritime Irregular Warfare

An assessment of the maritime component of a series of historical and ongoing operations reveals that current notions of irregular warfare would benefit from increased recognition of potential maritime contributions to such campaigns.

Report

Considerations for the Civilian Expeditionary Workforce: Preparing to Operate Amidst Private Security Contractors

The U.S. Department of Defense Civilian Expeditionary Workforce (CEW) is deployed to support theater operations. This paper builds on prior RAND research to examine how private security contractors may interact with and affect CEW operations.

Report

Developing a Defense Sector Assessment Rating Tool

The lack of a comprehensive tool to assess a country's defense sector and its ability to counter a range of internal security threats led to the development of the Defense Sector Assessment Rating Tool, which can be customized for a variety of goals.

Testimony

Considerations for the Use of Private Security Contractors in Future U.S. Military Deployments

Testimony submitted to the Commission on Wartime Contracting on June 18, 2010.

Report

Hired Guns: Views About Armed Contractors in Operation Iraqi Freedom

Reports the results of surveys of military and State Department personnel concerning their views on the use of armed private security contractors in the Iraq war.