Daniel M. Gerstein

The End of the U.S. COVID-19 Public Health Emergency: Q&A with RAND Experts

We asked RAND experts to reflect on the past three years: What were the effects on the United States and around the world, what has changed, what are the most important takeaways, what was done right, and what was done wrong? At the same time, they looked ahead to what might be done to mitigate the health and geopolitical impacts of future pandemics.

Healthy Nation, Safe Nation: Build Health Security into National Security

The COVID-19 pandemic revealed a need for a more-robust health security paradigm within the broader national security context. But addressing preparedness and response shortfalls for national-level challenges might not be fully possible without first addressing the glaring seams and gaps between the various stakeholder communities.

Biotechnology and Today's Warfighter

Biotechnology has a broad and often misunderstood scope, one with significant implications for today's warfighter, and it may be reaching a critical junction. As it continues to mature, proactive policy becomes necessary for the federal government to leverage emerging capabilities effectively and remain competitive.

Learning, Relearning, and Not Learning the Lessons of COVID-19

Recent announcements have demonstrated how little has been learned from the response to the COVID-19 pandemic, and the potential need for a national reckoning to assess shortfalls and develop recommendations for preparing for and responding to future pandemics and other biological risks. The United States could create a national commission to develop a way forward.

Time for a U.N. Peace Enforcement Operation in Northern Ukraine?

Now that the Russian military in Ukraine has retreated north, a de facto cease-fire is in place in Kyiv and central Ukraine. This could present an opportunity for the United Nations to call for a formal cease-fire in reclaimed territory and issue a recommendation to willing states to move into Ukraine with a peacekeeping force.

Charting a Strategic Path Forward for DHS in an Evolved Threat Landscape

In the 20 years since 9/11 and the establishment of DHS, there have been profound changes in the threats facing the United States. It may make sense to consider a new operational and organizational path forward.

Difficult Choices in the Race to Innovate and Compete

Senate passage of the U.S. Innovation and Competition Act recognizes the fierce competition across the globe for leadership in key technology areas. The potential for such a momentous national investment in resources and attention brings with it options and choices for policymakers to consider.

Origin Story: How Did the Coronavirus Emerge?

President Joe Biden has called for the U.S. intelligence community to redouble efforts to determine the origins of the COVID-19 pandemic. In conducting this investigation, it might be useful to avoid only focusing on a binary choice. That is, either the virus escaped from the laboratory or from a spillover from an infected animal to a human.

Could the Bioweapons Treaty Be Another Tool for Addressing Pandemics?

What might governments do to reduce the risk of future large-scale biological attacks or naturally occurring pandemics? Perhaps now is the right time to revisit the 46-year-old Biological Weapons Convention treaty and make it a better tool against future biological threats.

The Essential Role of DHS in the Economic Recovery from COVID-19

The name Department of Homeland Security belies an important set of roles, missions, and functions of the department related to the economic security of the United States. Wielding these powers to their full extent during the COVID-19 pandemic could set the conditions for a more rapid recovery.

Biosecurity Is the Lesson We Need to Learn from the Coronavirus Pandemic

Biological outbreaks have been a fear among experts for decades and human activities present windows of vulnerability. To address this, America needs to have a new approach to biosafety and biosecurity that addresses the full range of biological threats that humankind and the global environment will face in the future.

Inventions Birthed by Necessity of Coronavirus

If necessity is the mother of invention, the new coronavirus is quickly birthing a lot of innovations. Parts of U.S. society may be forever changed by this pandemic. The national emergency will eventually end, but the longer it lasts, the less likely that the pre-pandemic business-as-usual ways will return.

On the Horns of the COVID-19 Dilemma

COVID-19 poses two dire threats to the United States: the potential deaths of many thousands of Americans, and the devastation of the $22 trillion annual economy. Protecting the health of as many people as possible by shutting down ordinary life seems completely justifiable, but that necessarily inflicts damage to the economy. This is truly a dilemma.

Three 'New Rules' Worth Considering for the Internet

Facebook's Mark Zuckerberg has called for new internet regulation starting in four areas: harmful content, election integrity, privacy, and data portability. But why stop there? His proposal could be expanded to include much more: security-by-design, net worthiness, and updated internet business models.

Who Should Fund U.S. Research and Development?

The United States is in a global technology competition with important economic and national security implications. Government leadership and funding for shaping national research and development priorities will be essential.

Ethics of Germline Editing Must Keep Up with Technology

Mainstream interest in genome editing is now surging. If this research is to go forward, the science should be well understood by those conducting the research. Best practices and the highest scientific standards should be employed to limit risks and prevent unintended consequences.

Achieving the Trump Administration's National Biodefense Strategy

The Trump administration recently published its National Biodefense Strategy, which says that managing the risk of biological threats is in the “vital interest” of the United States, however they might present. The document provides a solid foundation, but more may be required to fully realize its goals and objectives.

The Military's Search for Innovation

Militaries have historically sought ways to incorporate new weapons, armaments and methods of fighting into their operations. As the United States military continues to vigorously pursue innovation, history has provided important lessons which can help guide future innovation efforts.

FEMA's Transformation

The Federal Emergency Management Agency's strategic plan shows several shifts in U.S. disaster relief policy. Redirecting longer-term recovery operations to state and local authorities would allow FEMA to concentrate its assets on the catastrophic disasters it is uniquely designed to handle.

What Does Mission Accomplished in Syria Really Mean?

The use of chemicals cannot be allowed to become an acceptable form of warfare either in Syria or anywhere else. Mission accomplishment in Syria, just like in chemical weapon nonproliferation, will require far more than missile strikes alone.

Russian Nerve Agent from Skripal Attack a Deadly Game-Changer

The use of Novichok in last week's attack against Russian ex-spy Sergei Skripal and his daughter Yulia demands global condemnation and an insistence that Russia account for how the nerve agent came to be used at all, much less on foreign soil.

Could Putin's Speech Signal the Erosion of Nuclear Nonproliferation?

Russian President Vladimir Putin has linked the development of new nuclear weapons capabilities to the United States' refusal to collaborate on arms control. Perhaps before Russia goes down this path, another attempt at dialogue would be beneficial as both nations have expressed a shared interest in limiting nuclear proliferation.

Can the U.S. Afford to Reduce Global Public Health Funding?

The United States may be preparing to downsize funding for global epidemic prevention. Without renewed funding, the long-term outlook could include an increased likelihood of global disease outbreaks.

Return of Tactical Nuclear Weapons Would Send a Dangerous Signal

A change in the U.S. nuclear posture to include low-yield nuclear weapons could make nonproliferation goals harder to achieve. But it could also signal a new willingness to consider these weapons as part of a spectrum of warfighting capabilities, rather than as a necessary component of the U.S. deterrence posture.

Reauthorizing DHS: Contemplating Major DHS Organizational Realignments

As Congress considers DHS reauthorization, having clear organizational realignment principles could help assess the degree to which expectations will be met. Those principles could examine whether mission effectiveness would improve and whether implemented changes would introduce new issues.

Reauthorizing DHS: Aligning Requirements, Research, Development and Acquisition

As part of the discussion about reauthorizing the Department of Homeland Security, Congress might want to consider how to improve acquisitions. Rather than focusing only on the steps in the acquisition process, that discussion could also include consideration of pre and post-acquisition activities.

Reauthorizing DHS: Improving Operational Control

One area of focus in the debate on reauthorizing the Department of Homeland Security should be its role in directing homeland security operations. The debate should include a comprehensive discussion of the future role for the department headquarters.

Reauthorizing DHS: The Case for Reauthorization

Reauthorization of the Department of Homeland Security is vital to clarifying responsibilities and setting expectations for the continued evolution of the department. Policymakers might also wish to conduct an external review, which could help inform a broader future reform bill.

Rethinking Disaster Evacuation

Before a storm hits, officials must decide whether to evacuate the public or advise them to shelter in place. Other, more targeted choices — such as sheltering in safer locations within a city — could be available if an analytic basis for making such judgments were fully developed.

How Did North Korea Get Its Nuclear Capabilities So Far So Fast?

The recent North Korean missile tests and other provocations have sent shock waves through the global national security community and heightened tensions throughout the region. How has North Korea increased its missile capabilities so dramatically in such a short period of time?

A Countering Bioterrorism Facility Worth a Second Look

President Trump's proposed budget would close a laboratory dedicated to countering bioterrorism and providing the science behind bioterrorism response and recovery. Policymakers should assess whether the lab's capabilities are worth the price when weighed against the potential cost of a bioterror attack.

WannaCry Virus: A Lesson in Global Unpreparedness

The WannaCry ransomware attack provides important lessons about how to secure cyber networks. History indicates that other attacks will follow. Preparedness is crucial.

Regional Action Needed to Prevent Syrian Chemical Attacks

Action must be taken to deter future use of chemical weapons. Regional leaders could call for the International Criminal Court to indict Assad for war crimes. Also, borders with Syria could be sealed to prevent any of the remaining stocks from leaving the country.

China's Role in Dissuading North Korea from a Chemical Weapons Attack

North Korea's brash pursuit of weapons of mass destruction and disregard for chemical weapons norms are enormously troubling. China's engagement will be essential in convincing Kim Jong Un that the use of chemical weapons is a red line that cannot be crossed.

Why the Syria Chemical Attack Is a Big Problem for Putin

The growing use of chemicals and toxins as tools of assassination and terrorism are troubling trends. Global expressions of outrage over the latest attack in Syria could weaken Assad’s international support. Russia should listen and abandon its support for the regime while joining the international chorus of denunciation.

Two Very Different Views of Terrorism and What to Do About Them

Does the public want fewer government initiatives aimed at fighting terrorism, or more? The answer could lie in the type of attack involved as well as in individual perceptions of risk and how much inconvenience people are willing to accept in the name of public safety.

A More Public National Security Strategy Discussion

President Trump has proposed an increase of $54 billion in defense spending, about 10 percent more than the current budget. But what is the national security strategy that supports this reallocation of resources? A comprehensive discussion of threats to U.S. interests and strategies to address them is in order.

The Mission to Counter WMD: Avoiding Missteps While Transitioning Responsibility

U.S. Special Operations Command will soon lead the Pentagon's anti-WMD efforts. SOCOM is well positioned to contain and reduce threats, but will need new expertise to prevent the acquisition of related material and respond to crises.

Kelly as DHS Chief Should Focus on Improving Employee Morale

Building the morale of the Department of Homeland Security workforce should be a priority of the incoming leadership team. Strong communication with career employees, team building, and demonstrating respect for work that has already been done is needed.

Presidential Policy Directive 1: Forming the National Security Council

If precedent holds, the National Security Council will be defined in the first policy directive that President Trump signs in the early weeks of his administration. Several important questions should be considered.

America's Shifting Labor Market in a Technology-Driven World

Making America competitive in a transitioning market will require examining future labor market requirements. Workforce development programs that target building labor capacity for a new economy will be essential.

Protect Nuclear Nonproliferation Norms

Strong and viable global nuclear nonproliferation norms should remain a cornerstone of U.S. security now and into the future. Friends and allies must continue to have confidence in the U.S. strategic nuclear guarantees.

Can the Bioweapons Convention Survive Crispr?

Crispr is a biotechnology that's making genetic editing easier, cheaper, and far more accessible, but it has also been called a major security threat. Do such advances in biotechnology make the bioweapons convention obsolete?

How to Handle the Infectious Diseases Threat

The reactive approach to emerging infectious disease should be augmented with an anticipatory model that accounts for the dramatic changes occurring through globalization, greater interactions between human and zoonotic populations, and changes to the environment and climate patterns.

Understanding and Addressing the Unaccompanied Minor Immigration Issue

The number of unaccompanied child immigrants apprehended at the U.S. southwest border is on the rise again, the majority of them coming not from Mexico, but from Central America. Research could provide valuable information to policymakers as they try to find ways to help young immigrants.

Walls Won't Keep Us Safe

Experience along the U.S. southern border demonstrates that even with fortifications, a wall provides only modest capacity to stop illegal crossings. More emphasis should be placed on expanding border security beyond the physical dimension.

The False Choice at the Core of the Apple-FBI Standoff

The Apple-FBI case should spark a broader debate among technology companies concerning their role in maintaining the privacy and security balance. A starting point should be to recognize that the majority of cyberattacks are related to phishing—and a user's action—not to whether a device can be secured.

Russia on the Horns of a Nuclear Dilemma

While the murder of Alexander Litvinenko is a human tragedy, broader concerns about the lowering of WMD norms and violations of international law should be addressed. The use of radioactive matter to kill him represents a serious breach of international agreements.

Troubling Truth Beneath Litvinenko Headlines

Slipping radioactive material into a spy's tea in the middle of London may not sound like a CBRN attack, but it is, as the Owen report has confirmed. Hopefully, the report's release will help focus global attention on the growing threat posed by these devastating weapons.

Countering Bioterror

While advances in biotechnology have brought a wide range of benefits, biological weapons are now within the reach of many rogue nations and possibly some terrorist groups. Reports show that the U.S. is ill prepared to address this threat.

Solving the Geometrical Problem of Terrorism

Think of terror organizations as being composed of four elements, organized in concentric circles with the leaders at the center bull's eye, operational elements in the second ring, supporters in the third, and sympathizers in the fourth. Neutralizing each group will require different strategies.

The U.S. Needs to Exercise Leadership at the Biological Weapons Convention

The world is one rogue microbiologist away from a potentially devastating biological attack. In this new, evolving environment, the United States should establish its goals and objectives and build coalitions to help meet them.

Anonymous vs. ISIS: Wishing the Vigilante Hackers Luck Against the Murderous Jihadists

While ISIL uses the Internet to recruit fighters and incite violence, the Anonymous counter initiative could lower the volume of the online echo chamber, and yield support for the war against ISIL and its extremist ilk.

Time to Prepare for the Unthinkable

Given ISIS's strategy, it seems only a matter of time before these extremists might attempt an attack in the United States. The irony is that the very rights that Americans hold so dear (liberty, privacy, freedom) place it at greater risk. So what should America do to prepare?

The Two Sides of Cybersecurity

Securing government networks is certainly necessary, but authorities should not lose sight of the need to couple their defense of America's networks with appropriate resources dedicated to combatting criminal, terrorist, and other threats in cyberspace.

Define Acceptable Cyberspace Behavior

While a U.S.-China cyberspace agreement is a welcome step, it also underscores the greater issues facing the United States and the international community in this largely ungoverned space. A precondition for securing U.S. networks should be the development of an overarching cyber doctrine that defines acceptable behavior and allows the U.S. to defend its networks against threats.

20 Years Later, the Lessons of Bosnia-Herzegovina

U.S. intervention in Bosnia ended the fighting, bought time for a political solution to be reached, and halted the humanitarian crisis. But 20 years later, the prospects for lasting peace and a true multiethnic society to emerge in Bosnia are not encouraging.

Ebola and Syria's Chemical Weapons Show U.S. Can Leave Nothing to Chance

There are key takeaways from the Ebola outbreak, Syria's chemical weapons, and the Fukushima nuclear disaster. The U.S. and its international partners should view these events as learning opportunities that could help improve preparedness and response capabilities before the next crisis strikes.

The Forgotten Cornerstone in the Immigration Reform Debate

The Executive Office for Immigration Review manages the U.S. immigration court system and thereby plays a pivotal role in assuring the timely processing of foreign nationals and the security of the nation and its borders. It should not be left out of discussions of immigration reform.

The Clash of Internet Civilizations: Why Neither Side Should Prevail

The debate over net neutrality pits two opposing philosophies against each other — one pushing for the continued evolution of the Internet as an open information superhighway, the other asserting that the Internet's evolution needs to take more account of the many ways it is and will be used.

To Know the Future of Biological Weapons, Look to the Past

A panel chaired by former Sen. Joe Lieberman and former Gov. Tom Ridge will review U.S. policy on biodefense. Looking back to the end of the U.S. offensive biological warfare program would provide valuable lessons.

Managing Technology in an Unmanageable World

The need for purposeful and focused R&D in the U.S. has never been greater, but technology is advancing so quickly that the structures available to manage it have not kept pace. A comprehensive examination of the technological landscape is needed to help the government take a more holistic approach to investing in and regulating technologies.

Go Back to Basics to Reform Homeland Security

The Goldwater-Nichols Act in 1986 made the broadest and most sweeping changes to the Pentagon since its establishment in 1947. With the Department of Homeland Security in a similar state just over a decade after its hurried creation, it's time for DHS to have a Goldwater-Nichols of its own.

What Have We Learned from the Ebola Outbreak?

For much of 2014, the world has confronted the most deadly Ebola outbreak since the discovery of the disease in 1976. What lessons have emerged? What should the world do to better prepare for transnational outbreaks?

Report

Examining New Approaches for Implementing Vaccine Mandates Within the Department of Defense: How Lessons Learned from COVID-19 Vaccine Mandates Could Improve Future Vaccination Campaigns

The authors examine how the Department of Defense (DoD) COVID-19 vaccination program was implemented, determine how previous DoD vaccination programs influenced those decisions, and identify opportunities to strengthen DoD's vaccination program.

Commentary

Economic Security and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security: Addressing a Changed World and Evolved Threat Landscape

This Perspective describes the evolving strategic environment for and the U.S. Department of Homeland Security's critical role in economic security.

Commentary

Lessons Learned from the COVID-19 Outbreak: Preventing and Managing Future Pandemics

This collection of essays describes missteps made and lessons of critical importance learned during the global and U.S. response to the coronavirus disease 2019 pandemic, with the goal of improving preparedness and preventing future pandemics.

Commercial Book

Tech Wars: Transforming U.S. Technology Development

This book explores the evolution of the U.S. research and development enterprise, asks whether this organization remains appropriate for current the challenges, and proposes strategies for better preparing for the global technology race.

Commentary

Harnessing the Power of Science and Technology Communities for Crisis Response

In this Perspective, RAND researchers describe how the U.S. Department of Homeland Security could leverage science and technology communities to support the use of science, technology, innovation, and analytical capabilities during crisis response.

Report

An Overview of the Effectiveness of U.S. Counternarcotics Efforts in Colombia, 2000–Present, and Recommendations for the Future

The authors of this report examine the period in Colombia from 2000 to 2020 to assess the effectiveness of U.S. counternarcotics and security efforts: eradication of coca, interdiction of cocaine, security and rule of law, and development.

Testimony

The Strategic National Stockpile and COVID-19: Rethinking the Stockpile: Addendum

Document submitted August 21, 2020, as an addendum to testimony before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs on June 24, 2020.

Testimony

The Strategic National Stockpile and COVID-19: Rethinking the Stockpile

Testimony presented before the Senate Committee on Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs on June 24, 2020.

Testimony

The Federal Research Enterprise and COVID-19: A Lesson in Unpreparedness

Remarks presented to the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee at a virtual roundtable on May 5, 2020.

Report

Homeland Security National Risk Characterization: Risk Assessment Methodology

Presents a risk assessment methodology that can be used to identify the greatest risks to homeland security and support prioritization of U.S. Department of Homeland Security mission elements as part of DHS planning processes.

Report

Looking to the Future of the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP): Assessment of the Consolidation of the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service (ACBPS) and the DIBP (2016–2017)

This report summarizes the results of a follow-on evaluation of the Department of Immigration and Border Protection and informs the upcoming transition to an Australian Department of Home Affairs.

Report

Assessment of the Proliferation of Certain Remotely Piloted Aircraft Systems: Response to Section 1276 of the National Defense Authorization Act for Fiscal Year 2017

RAND Corporation researchers assessed the impact that certain remotely piloted aircraft (RPA) governed by the Missile Technology Control Regime (MTCR) have on U.S. national security interests. In this report, they document their findings.

Commentary

Managing International Borders: Balancing Security with the Licit Flow of People and Goods

This Perspective builds on global best practices and lessons learned from other established border management solutions and proposes opportunities to strengthen security while improving the flow of travelers and goods.

Testimony

Federal Research and Development for Agricultural Biodefense: Addendum

Document submitted December 5, 2017, as an addendum to testimony presented before the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, Subcommittee on Research and Technology on November 2, 2017.

Testimony

Federal Research and Development for Agricultural Biodefense

Testimony presented before the House Science, Space, and Technology Committee, Subcommittee on Research and Technology on November 2, 2017.

Report

Assessment of the Consolidation of the Australian Customs and Border Protection Service (ACBPS) with the Department of Immigration and Border Protection (DIBP)

RAND conducted an analysis of the effectiveness and efficiency of Australia's newly integrated Department of Immigration and Border Protection.

Report

Developing a Risk Assessment Methodology for the National Aeronautics and Space Administration

This report provides a risk assessment methodology that integrates risk factors and risk management approaches tailored to the National Aeronautics and Space Administration's management, operations, and acquisition structures.

Testimony

Making DHS More Efficient: Industry Recommendations to Improve Homeland Security

Testimony submitted to the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight and Management Efficiency on September 18, 2015.

Testimony

Strategies for Defending U.S. Government Networks in Cyberspace: Addendum

Document submitted on July 31, 2015 as an addendum to testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection, and Security Technologies on June 24, 2015.

Testimony

Strategies for Defending U.S. Government Networks in Cyberspace

Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Cybersecurity, Infrastructure Protection, and Security Technologies on June 24, 2015.

Testimony

Assessing DHS's Performance: Watchdog Recommendations to Improve Homeland Security

Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Oversight and Management Efficiency on February 26, 2015.