Uncertainty in Traffic Forecasts

Literature Review and New Results for the Netherlands

Published in: Transportation, Vol. 34, No. 4, July 2007, pages 375-395

by Gerard de Jong, Andrew Daly, Marits Pieters, Stephen Miller, Ronald Plasmeijer, Frank G. Hoffman

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Provides a review of transport model applications that not only provide a central traffic forecast (or forecasts for a few scenarios), but also quantify the uncertainty in the traffic forecasts in the form of a confidence interval or related measures. Both uncertainty that results from using uncertain inputs (e.g. on income) and uncertainty in the model itself are treated. The paper goes on to describe the methods used and the results obtained for a case study in quantifying uncertainty in traffic forecasts in The Netherlands.

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