A Framework for Complex Climate Change Risk Assessment

Nicholas P. Simpson, Katharine J. Mach, Andrew Constable, Jeremy Hess, Ryan Hogarth, Mark Howden, Judy Lawrence, Robert J. Lempert, Veruska Muccione, Brendan Mackey, et al.

ResearchPosted on rand.org Apr 28, 2021Published in: One Earth, Volume 4, Issue 4, pages 489–501 (April 2021). doi: 10.1016/j.oneear.2021.03.005

Real-world experience underscores the complexity of interactions among multiple drivers of climate change risk and of how multiple risks compound or cascade. However, a holistic framework for assessing such complex climate change risks has not yet been achieved. Clarity is needed regarding the interactions that generate risk, including the role of adaptation and mitigation responses. In this perspective, we present a framework for three categories of increasingly complex climate change risk that focus on interactions among the multiple drivers of risk, as well as among multiple risks. A significant innovation is recognizing that risks can arise both from potential impacts due to climate change and from responses to climate change. This approach encourages thinking that traverses sectoral and regional boundaries and links physical and socio-economic drivers of risk. Advancing climate change risk assessment in these ways is essential for more informed decision making that reduces negative climate change impacts.

Read More

Topics

Document Details

  • Copyright: Nicholas P. Simpson, Katharine J. Mach, Andrew Constable, Jeremy Hess, Ryan Hogarth, Mark Howden, Judy Lawrence, Robert J. Lempert, Veruska Muccione, Brendan Mackey, Mark G. New, Brian O'Neill, Friederike Otto, Hans-O. Pörtner, Andy Reisinger, Debra Roberts, Daniela N. Schmidt, Sonia Seneviratne, Steven Strongin, Maarten van Aalst, Edmond Totin, Christopher H. Trisos
  • Publisher: Science Direct
  • Availability: Non-RAND
  • Year: 2021
  • Pages: 13
  • Document Number: EP-68612

Research conducted by

This publication is part of the RAND external publication series. Many RAND studies are published in peer-reviewed scholarly journals, as chapters in commercial books, or as documents published by other organizations.

RAND is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.