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Decisionmaking

Report

Understanding the Ministry of Defence's Wider Contribution to UK Prosperity: Measuring Defence Output

The UK Ministry of Defence (MOD)'s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) commissioned RAND Europe to examine different approaches to assessing UK Defence's contribution to national prosperity.

Jul 14, 2021
Commentary

Will the United States Declare Freedom from COVID-19 Too Soon?

RAND analyzed what could happen with COVID-19 deaths in the United States if restrictions all go away on July 4. Fully reopening the economy before Biden's vaccination target was met doubled the average number of COVID-19 deaths between Independence Day and the end of the year.

May 21, 2021
Journal Article

Where to Next? PLA Considerations for Overseas Base Site Selection

There has been much speculation about where China's next overseas military base will be, but what does the Chinese military itself think about selecting the locations for its overseas military bases?

May 14, 2021
Report

Stress-Testing California's COVID-19 Reopening Strategy

States' reopening plans vary widely. With a revised RAND decision support tool, researchers tested alternative plans, using California as an example. The best strategies did not prematurely relax measures like indoor mask-wearing; began with a high level of caution; were tied to vaccination rates; and made changes gradually.

May 10, 2021
Commentary

Loose-Fit Infrastructure Can Better Account for Climate Change

As climate change accelerates there is a growing disconnect between what our infrastructure systems can do and what we need them to do. Policymakers should view infrastructure investments as not simply hardware fixes and upgrades, but as efforts to close this gap.

Apr 8, 2021
Journal Article

Forecasts and Decisions: A Commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

This article is a commentary on a paper by Lustick and Tetlock (2021), on forecasting, decisionmaking, and the intelligence community.

Apr 2, 2021
Journal Article

Rapid Prioritisation of Topics for Rapid Evaluation: The Case of Innovations in Adult Social Care and Social Work

This paper aims to describe and discuss a process of rapidly identifying and prioritising a shortlist of innovations for rapid evaluation applied in the field of adult social care and social work.

Mar 18, 2021
Research Brief

Chiropractors in the United States Rarely Perform Spinal Manipulation for Chronic Lower Back or Neck Pain When It Is Inappropriate

Across a sample of patients seen by chiropractors, spinal manipulation was rated by experts as appropriate for most patients with chronic lower back pain and as equivocal (uncertain) for most patients with chronic neck pain.

Mar 12, 2021
Journal Article

Effective Game-Based Training for Police Officer Decision-Making: Linking Missions, Skills, and Virtual Content

This paper reports the result of a two-year pilot study that developed a framework for implementing low-cost, game-based, virtual reality technology for training police officers to improve their decision-making under stress.

Mar 12, 2021
Journal Article

Steps Towards Value-Aligned Systems

This paper argues for a more structured systems-level approach for assessing value-alignment in sociotechnical systems. We highlight how adopting a system perspective improves our ability to explain and address misbehaving algorithms better.

Mar 10, 2021
Journal Article

Modeling Agent Behaviors for Policy Analysis Via Reinforcement Learning

This paper examines the value of reinforcement learning models as adaptive, high-performing, and behaviorally-valid models of agent decision-making in Agent-based Models.

Mar 9, 2021
Commentary

Use Wargaming to Sharpen the Tactical Edge

As a growing consensus embraces the utility of educational wargaming, a more daunting question remains: Can the Joint Force integrate and sustain educational wargaming in the operating forces? The challenges are substantial, but they are not insurmountable. The answer depends on bold leadership, sufficient tools, and eager partners.

Mar 8, 2021
Tool

Water Planning for the Uncertain Future: An Interactive Guide to the Use of Methods for Decisionmaking Under Deep Uncertainty (DMDU) for U.S. Bureau of Reclamation Water Resources Planning

Recent climatic shifts are likely to continue to affect water resources management in significant but uncertain ways. This tool provides information about decisionmaking under deep uncertainty methods—specifically, Robust Decision Making.

Mar 8, 2021
Journal Article

Constraints, Values, and Information: How Leaders in One District Justify Their Positions During Instructional Decision Making

We investigate how leaders support their interpretations of problems and proposed solutions during closed-door negotiations around three policy decisions, and how they invoke race, class, and language in the process.

Mar 2, 2021
Commentary

California Needs a More Flexible Approach to Sea Level Rise Planning

Rising seas create significant risk to the health, safety, and economic vitality of California's coast communities, and we must prepare. A contingency-planning approach would provide flexible action over time and would build capacity that California and the nation need to respond to the many other serious and growing climate-related risks.

Feb 18, 2021
Report

How to Avoid Aggression or Escalation in a Crisis

Anticipating how an opponent may be reasoning, and then seeking ways to alter that thinking can inform an effective influence strategy. Deterring adversaries by threat of punishment alone is often ineffective. A better approach might involve a mix of several measures, such as being able to thwart aggression, reassurances to reduce the adversary's fears, and relationship-building.

Feb 16, 2021
Journal Article

Planificación De Infraestructura Hídrica Para El Futuro Incierto En América Latina: Un Enfoque Eficiente En Costos Y Tiempo Para Tomar Decisiones Robustas De Infraestructura, Con Un Estudio De Caso En Mendoza, Argentina

El presente estudio demuestra la utilidad del enfoque de Toma de Decisiones Robustas para evaluar la vulnerabilidad y las oportunidades de adaptación de la gestión de los recursos hídricos en Mendoza, Argentina.

Feb 11, 2021
Commentary

Wargames as an Educational Tool

The benefits of games for military education are well documented. But harnessing the potential of games to foster innovation may require a commitment to sustain gaming over the years needed to explore a problem space and develop and stress-test new ideas.

Feb 8, 2021
Journal Article

Modeling the Uncertainty of Potential Impacts on Robust Stormwater Management from Neighborhood-Scale Impervious Cover Change: A Case Study of Population-Based Scenarios in Pittsburgh, Pennsylvania

This work presents a method for applying high-spatial resolution population-based scenarios to pre-existing stormwater models. We explore the impact of two long-term population growth scenarios for the Pittsburgh region.

Feb 4, 2021
Commentary

Who Gets Care When Hospitals Are Overwhelmed? Clear Policies Are Often Lacking

As COVID-19 cases and hospitalizations surge to new highs, states, health systems, and the public continue to need clarity on health care resource allocation policy. A RAND checklist provides clear and consistent criteria for structuring such difficult decisions.

Jan 21, 2021

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RAND Topic:
Decisionmaking

Topic Synonyms:
DA;
Decision Analysis;
Decision Making