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Decisionmaking

Report

A Structured Elicitation Approach to Identify Technology-Based Challenges: With Application to Inform Force Planning for Technological Surprise

What do experts envision as the largest technology-based challenges the U.S. Joint Force may encounter by 2040? The authors develop and implement an approach to elicit and evaluate 20 challenges identified by experts.

Oct 14, 2021
Report

What Drives U.S. Adversaries to Use Military Forces Abroad?

Where, how, and how often have China, Russia, and Iran intervened militarily since 1946? A review of their behavior and that of other U.S. adversaries identifies why they initiated military interventions and why they might do so in the future.

Sep 27, 2021
Report

Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

Despite Russia's relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other U.S. competitor since 1991. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia conducts military interventions.

Sep 27, 2021
Report

China's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

China has undertaken two broad types of military interventions in its post-1949 history. The authors assess which one of two patterns is likely to predominate in China's future and on what factors the answer to this question is likely to depend.

Sep 27, 2021
Report

Iran's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

In this report, the authors assess when, where, why, and how Iran conducts military interventions and identify key signposts of Iranian military interventions that can be used as early warning indicators for U.S. military planners.

Sep 27, 2021
Journal Article

Reforming the Teaching and Conducting of Policy Studies to Deal Better with Complex Systems

The teaching and conduct of policy analysis needs updating to account better for the special challenges of social problems occurring in complex adaptive systems.

Sep 17, 2021
Essay

Costa Rica Leads the Way in Cutting Carbon Emissions

Almost every country has pledged to slash carbon emissions to slow the gears of global warming. Costa Rica's plan provides a glimpse of what a carbon-neutral future will look like. It shows how nations can take action and make investments that hold up, regardless of what future comes to pass.

Aug 30, 2021
Report

Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume I

The United States should aim to minimize the element of complexity for itself while maximizing it for its adversary in great-power competition and warfare. But what does complexity mean in an Air Force context? And how can it be used as a method of attack?

Aug 26, 2021
Report

Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume II

The Air Force should apply a complexity lens through which to review ongoing and future efforts to best leverage complexity to U.S. decision advantage. The technical companion to an initial exploration includes a literature review and a user manual.

Aug 26, 2021
Report

A Clean Sheet Approach to Space Acquisition in Light of the New Space Force

The authors describe an unconstrained "clean sheet" approach to space acquisition for the U.S. Space Force designed around the unique mission and calling of the new service.

Aug 25, 2021
Report

Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality

What is Russia's declared grand strategy? How do its actions and resource decisions match its declarations? The authors of this report offer answers to these questions and suggest implications for U.S. policymakers.

Aug 16, 2021
Report

Understanding the Ministry of Defence's Wider Contribution to UK Prosperity: Measuring Defence Output

The UK Ministry of Defence (MOD)'s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) commissioned RAND Europe to examine different approaches to assessing UK Defence's contribution to national prosperity.

Jul 14, 2021
Commentary

Will the United States Declare Freedom from COVID-19 Too Soon?

RAND analyzed what could happen with COVID-19 deaths in the United States if restrictions all go away on July 4. Fully reopening the economy before Biden's vaccination target was met doubled the average number of COVID-19 deaths between Independence Day and the end of the year.

May 21, 2021
Journal Article

Where to Next? PLA Considerations for Overseas Base Site Selection

There has been much speculation about where China's next overseas military base will be, but what does the Chinese military itself think about selecting the locations for its overseas military bases?

May 14, 2021
Report

Stress-Testing California's COVID-19 Reopening Strategy

States' reopening plans vary widely. With a revised RAND decision support tool, researchers tested alternative plans, using California as an example. The best strategies did not prematurely relax measures like indoor mask-wearing; began with a high level of caution; were tied to vaccination rates; and made changes gradually.

May 10, 2021
Commentary

Loose-Fit Infrastructure Can Better Account for Climate Change

As climate change accelerates there is a growing disconnect between what our infrastructure systems can do and what we need them to do. Policymakers should view infrastructure investments as not simply hardware fixes and upgrades, but as efforts to close this gap.

Apr 8, 2021
Journal Article

Forecasts and Decisions: A Commentary on Lustick and Tetlock 2021

This article is a commentary on a paper by Lustick and Tetlock (2021), on forecasting, decisionmaking, and the intelligence community.

Apr 2, 2021
Journal Article

Rapid Prioritisation of Topics for Rapid Evaluation: The Case of Innovations in Adult Social Care and Social Work

This paper aims to describe and discuss a process of rapidly identifying and prioritising a shortlist of innovations for rapid evaluation applied in the field of adult social care and social work.

Mar 18, 2021
Research Brief

Chiropractors in the United States Rarely Perform Spinal Manipulation for Chronic Lower Back or Neck Pain When It Is Inappropriate

Across a sample of patients seen by chiropractors, spinal manipulation was rated by experts as appropriate for most patients with chronic lower back pain and as equivocal (uncertain) for most patients with chronic neck pain.

Mar 12, 2021
Journal Article

Effective Game-Based Training for Police Officer Decision-Making: Linking Missions, Skills, and Virtual Content

This paper reports the result of a two-year pilot study that developed a framework for implementing low-cost, game-based, virtual reality technology for training police officers to improve their decision-making under stress.

Mar 12, 2021

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RAND Topic:
Decisionmaking

Topic Synonyms:
DA;
Decision Analysis;
Decision Making