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Decisionmaking

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A Brief History of RAND

RAND was incorporated as a nonprofit corporation in 1948. From its early years to the present, RAND research is characterized by its objectivity and nonpartisanship, its quality and scientific rigor, and its dedication to improving policymaking on the most pressing issues of the day.

Aug 3, 2018
Commentary

Suggestions to Help EPA Successfully Implement Retrospective Reviews

The EPA's interest in including a systematic retrospective review element in new regulation has the potential to provide a transparent and well-structured method for assessing which decisions worked well and which didn't. If successful, it could serve as a role model for other regulatory agencies.

Jul 19, 2018
Dissertation

Dissertation

Value of Information for Policy Analysis

This dissertation considers the viability of applying Value of Information methods in complex systems for policy analysis, concluding that these methods can be applied, but that different methods are appropriate in different cases.

May 15, 2018
Brochure

RAND's Most Influential Research from 70 Years Working in the Public Interest

Over its 70-year history, RAND has continuously demonstrated that rigorous research and analysis can help address some of the world's most challenging problems.

May 14, 2018
Brochure

RAND Year in Review 2017

RAND President and CEO Michael Rich offers a year-end assessment of RAND's impact, highlighting ways in which the organization's findings and recommendations are helping to improve the health, security, and prosperity of individuals and communities throughout the world.

May 8, 2018
Brochure

Security 2040: Perils and Promise Over the Near Horizon

The Security 2040 initiative explores how new trends and technologies could impact the future of global security. The goal: Alert policymakers to potential future risks and recommend solutions.

Apr 24, 2018
Report

Report

Factoring Security Cooperation into Core U.S. Air Force Decisionmaking Processes: Incorporating Impact in Planning, Programming, and Capability Development

This report reviews two core U.S. Air Force decisionmaking processes to determine the extent to which decisionmakers consider security cooperation impact and to recommend ways to make such considerations systematic and explicit.

Apr 19, 2018
Report

Report

Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.

Apr 16, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Understanding Scientists' Computational Modeling Decisions About Climate Risk Management Strategies Using Values-Informed Mental Models

This study used values-informed mental models (ViMM) to capture how a set of scientists thinks about modeling CRM strategy tradeoffs and how their values influence this thinking.

Mar 7, 2018
Journal Article

Building a Values-Informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management

ViMM helps identify gaps between the values used by the public and experts to understand risk factors and strategies. This study suggests a framework to construct a more explicit model of the public's and CRM experts' and climate scientists' values.

Mar 7, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Scenario Techniques for Energy and Environmental Research: An Overview of Recent Developments to Broaden the Capacity to Deal with Complexity and Uncertainty

This TI gathers recent methodological innovations in quantitative techniques to push the frontiers of scenarios capabilities and demonstrates how they can address the dual challenge posed by the context of (deep) uncertainty and complexity.

Mar 6, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Distinguishing the Ratio Bias from Unsystematic Error: Situation and Individual-difference Effects

Research that tries to distinguish ratio bias, implying greater perceived likelihood with gambles involving larger versus smaller numbers, from unsystematic error, which results from not seeing the equivalence of the presentations more generally.

Feb 9, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Taking the Biggest First: Age Differences in Preferences for Monetary and Hedonic Sequences

We built from the literature to conduct an exploratory study of age differences in sequence preferences. Our findings show that older adults preferred to take the biggest event first.

Jan 30, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Robustness of Decision-Making Competence: Evidence from Two Measures and an 11-Year Longitudinal Study

Behavioral decision research has traditionally examined how experimental manipulations evoke general cognitive processes; however, it is both feasible and valuable to study individual differences and their relationships to real-world antecedents, concomitants, and consequences.

Jan 12, 2018
Commentary

The American Intellectual Property

In a continued search for competitive advantage, the United States may be asking the wrong question. Perhaps the question should be how to most effectively cultivate what is inherent in Americans.

Dec 19, 2017
Report

The Risks of AI to Security and the Future of Work

As artificial intelligence (AI) becomes more prevalent in the domains of security and employment, what are the policy implications? What effects might AI have on cybersecurity, criminal and civil justice, and labor market patterns?

Dec 6, 2017
Blog

Exploring Trust, Leadership, and 'Analytic Courage'

Leaders in business, government, academia, and philanthropy gathered at RAND's headquarters in Santa Monica to pay tribute to the seven-decade relationship between RAND and the U.S. Air Force. Panelists discussed the importance of trusted advice to inform national security descisonmaking.

Nov 15, 2017
Commentary

AI's Promise and Risks

Artificial intelligence seems to be advancing faster than efforts to understand its potential consequences, good and bad. And discussions about AI often veer toward extremes. More balanced, rigorous analysis is needed to help shape policies that mitigate AI's risks and maximize its benefits.

Oct 24, 2017
Commentary

Adding Shots on Target: Wargaming Beyond the Game

Figuring out what the future may look like—and what concepts and technology we should invest in now to prepare—is hard. How can the wargaming community build a cycle of research to help understand what these paths might be?

Oct 9, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Demonstrating the Applicability of a Robust Decision Making (RDM) to Conservation Decision-Making Under Uncertain Future Climate: Pilot Study Using the Northern Pygmy Salamander (Desmognathus Organi)

This study suggests initial ideas for managing climate uncertainty in conservation planning. Differences with previous RDM applications include focus on finer scale geography and significantly more uncertainty in the system (species response) model.

Oct 3, 2017

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RAND Topic:
Decisionmaking

Topic Synonyms:
DA;
Decision Analysis;
Decision Making