When Congress considers a new law or spending package, analysts calculate its likely impact on the federal budget. When it comes to climate change legislation, those numbers don't capture the whole picture. Potential savings and other benefits get significantly underestimated.
The Delphi method, developed at RAND in the 1950s, is a group-based process for eliciting and aggregating opinion on a topic with a goal of exploring the existence of consensus among a diverse group of experts. It's become best practice for quantifying the results of group elicitation processes.
As artificial intelligence algorithms become incorporated into more decision processes that affect individuals' welfare and well-being, public perceptions of the technology will have many implications, including for jury judgments about algorithmic liability and support for AI regulation.
Researchers considered a future in which corporate cryptocurrency (crypto) is in widespread use and asked experts to identify strategic approaches to evolving technological and economic trends underpinning this potential future.
The authors apply the concept of selective overmatch to reevaluate current U.S. cyber operations in light of competition and possible conflict with China and show how this framework can provide a roadmap for U.S. Cyber Command’s future operations.
To help mainstream MORDM applications in GI planning, we developed an open-source Python library: Rhodium-SWMM. Rhodium-SWMM connects the USEPA's Stormwater Management Model (SWMM) to Rhodium, a Python library for MORDM.
Influence efforts should seek legitimate military outcomes, be necessary, employ means that are not harmful, have high likelihood of success, and should not generate effects beyond what is intended. Those that do not satisfy all criteria might still be justified if the expected benefit outweighs the harm.
Transportation agencies must pursue ambitious goals in the face of intense, large-scale, and increasingly fast-paced change. Through the decision making under conditions of deep uncertainty (DMDU) approach, researchers offer a guide for Metropolitan Planning Organizations to account for and manage future uncertainties as part of their regular transportation planning process.
The MWD of SoCal addresses the challenges of hard-to-predict changes in future demand, climate, supply options, budgetary constraints, etc. Plans should be flexible and robust, designed to meet agency goals over a wide range of future conditions.
Meeting the Pentagon's goals to invest efficiently in military capabilities calls for a methodological process hinging on five key elements: aligning strategies with tasks, understanding what drives military innovation, embracing specificity in problem-solving, preparing for an unknown future, and assessing technology investments for prioritization.
Expert elicitation can supplement information from climate models to support adaptation planning. This report describes how the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission used elicitation to identify climate impacts on the city's water supply.
Researchers identified factors inhibiting the provision of information to the Defense Counterintelligence and Security Agency from law enforcement agencies and developed a framework to help assess which areas might benefit from federal assistance.
This study aimed to understand differences between climate risk approaches and identify possible improvements, to help climate risk practitioners determine appropriate approaches, and to support society in assessing its management of climate risk.
Using electricity system decarbonization as a focus area to highlight the different types of technological solutions, different risks that may be associated with them, and the approaches situated in a decision-making under deep uncertainty paradigm.