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Decisionmaking

Commentary

How Can Wargaming Improve Government Response to Catastrophic Events?

Wargames are abstracted models of national security challenges, where players' decisions and their consequences are adjudicated within a rules-based environment. Due to its inherent flexibility as a tool, wargaming can be applied to a wide range of issues. Yet, it is important to understand what wargaming can and cannot do.

May 29, 2020
Q&A

Modeling the Future of COVID-19: Q&A with RAND Experts

The phrase “flatten the curve” familiarized Americans with epidemiological models used to estimate virus transmission, cases, and potential deaths from COVID-19. But new models are needed as the country enters a different stage of the crisis.

May 26, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios: A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making

Robust Decision Making offers a promising complement and possibly future alternative to current prediction-based and scenario approaches that could help planners better manage in today's conditions of fast-paced change.

May 21, 2020
Report

Report

Enhancing Assessments of Space Mission Assurance

The authors describe decisionmaker needs for assessments of space mission assurance (SMA), challenges for conducting SMA assessments, the shortfalls that may result from the challenges, and options for addressing the shortfalls.

May 20, 2020
Commentary

Relaxing COVID-19 Restrictions Presents Stark Choices

RAND's new COVID-19 interventions impact tool uses epidemiological and economic models and continually refreshed data to estimate what could happen as restrictions are eased. The tool won't make the choices confronting state leaders less painful. But it can provide clear, evidence-based estimates of the health and economic trade-offs.

May 18, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Decision-making Competence in Older Adults: A Rosy View from a Longitudinal Investigation

Our study depicts a generally positive picture of age-related changes in three important aspects of decision-making competence and it shows that starting levels of decision-making competence are predictive of decision-making performance over time.

May 12, 2020
Commentary

Don't Make the Pandemic Worse with Poor Data Analysis

The need for immediate answers in the face of severe public health and economic distress may create a temptation to relax statistical standards. But urgency should not preclude expert analysis and honest assessments of uncertainty. Mistaken assumptions could lead to counterproductive actions.

May 6, 2020
Commentary

Leading with the Proper Use of Scientific Evidence Is Better Than Hiding Behind It

Evidence only has scientific meaning when it is part of a body of disciplinary knowledge produced by a community of scientists. Leading with scientific evidence, coupled with a wider values framework, may result in better outcomes for all.

May 5, 2020
Journal Article

Short-Term Solutions to a Long-Term Challenge: Rethinking Disaster Recovery Planning to Reduce Vulnerabilities and Inequities

We review case examples to illustrate how post-disaster policies may influence the nature, pace, and inclusiveness of community recovery.

Apr 30, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Drivers of Continued Implementation of Cultural Competence in Substance Use Disorder Treatment

This study examines whether the key characteristics of organizational decision makers predicted continued implementation of five different practices that represent organizational cultural competence in one of the most diverse substance use disorder treatment systems in the United States.

Apr 29, 2020
Report

Meeting U.S. Coast Guard Airpower Needs: Assessing the Options

Researchers assessed what airpower fleet mixes could best posture the U.S. Coast Guard to execute its various missions globally to meet future operational requirements. This report provides their findings and recommendations.

Apr 21, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Robust Decision Making and Scenario Discovery in the Absence of Formal Models

Robust decisionmaking (RDM) is a method for aiding decision making under deep uncertainty that uses models not as predictors but as generators of cases exploring assumptions and outcomes.

Apr 21, 2020
Commentary

The Great Reset: Policing in 2030

Scenarios of possible futures can help planners envision what the future could be, and plan ways to optimize opportunities or mitigate damage. Trends regarding retail operations, hotels, tax revenues, fines and forfeitures, and autonomous vehicles are all happening today. We've imagined how they might extend into the future.

Apr 20, 2020
Commentary

COVID-19: The Questions Ahead for Future Travel and Transport

COVID-19 could have lasting effects on future travel patterns. Future scenarios, a method for visualizing different possible futures, can help inform decisions in deeply uncertain situations and can be used to think about policies that are important for people's quality of life regardless of how the future unfolds.

Apr 15, 2020
Journal Article

Defining the Solution Space to Accelerate Climate Change Adaptation

Better understanding of the solution space for climate change adaptation, and identifying ways to influence this space, is critical for informing policy making globally to accelerate adaptation action.

Mar 24, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Does Shared Decision Making Actually Occur in the Emergency Department? Looking at It from the Patients' Perspective

Utilizing a cross-sectional, multisite approach, we administered an instrument, consisting of two validated shared decisionmaking assessment tools and one newly developed tool to a sample of emergency department patients.

Mar 19, 2020
Report

How Is the Global Competition of Ideas Changing?

The United States is engaged in a new era of great-power competition in the realms of information, ideas, and ideology. An analysis of the policy and actions of China, Russia, and nonstate actors suggests what this competition might look like in the future and how U.S. policy should be adapted accordingly.

Mar 12, 2020
Brochure

A focus on gaming for research

Serious games can be used to explore a variety of policy issues, from defence and national security, to disaster response and health policy. A focus on gaming highlights RAND Europe's expertise in applying this method to different policy questions.

Feb 26, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand

Good policy analysis needs routinely to address not only uncertainty about model inputs, but uncertainty and disagreements about the model itself—especially for complex systems. In the future, analysis that fails to do so may be regarded as fatally flawed.

Feb 11, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Could AI Drive Transformative Social Progress? What Would This Require?

This paper explores various strategies and business models for developing and deploying artificial intelligence-enabled products.

Feb 4, 2020

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RAND Topic:
Decisionmaking

Topic Synonyms:
DA;
Decision Analysis;
Decision Making