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Decisionmaking

Commentary

Evidence Synthesis—Behind the Scenes

The Royal Society and RAND Europe recently published an evidence synthesis on the impacts of ammonia emissions from agriculture on biodiversity. As well as aiming to provide a useful summary of the evidence to inform ongoing policy discussions, the study was intended to test the Royal Society's recently developed principles for good evidence synthesis for policy.

Nov 30, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Hidden-Model Processes for Adaptive Management Under Uncertain Climate Change

This paper proposes a set of optimization procedures based on the Markov decision process (MDP) framework to support decision making depending on the assumed learning rate.

Nov 27, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Preparing For Local Adaptation: A Study of Community Understanding and Support

We surveyed 1385 Pittsburghers on: (1) beliefs and knowledge about stormwater, (2) drivers of events, (3) support for green and gray infrastructure, and (4) the factors that explain their support.

Nov 27, 2018
Report

Deep Decarbonization as a Risk Management Challenge

Deep decarbonization is the idea of reducing net human greenhouse gas emissions to zero in the 21st century. There are three concepts that help explain the full scope of deep decarbonization as a risk management challenge.

Oct 22, 2018
Dissertation

Dissertation

Harmonizing Discretionary Policy Choice with Fiscal Rule Making: Mexico after Fiscal and Energy Sector Reforms

Studies the long-term effectiveness and vulnerability of a diverse set of fiscal policies, which propose lump-sum transfers and different consumption tax exemptions.

Sep 14, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Measuring Subjective Probabilities: The Effect of Response Mode on the Use of Focal Responses, Validity, and Respondents' Evaluations

Improved measurement of people's probability judgments should benefit probability elicitation efforts relevant to risk analysis, decision making, and risk communication.

Sep 5, 2018
Dissertation

Dissertation

Choose Wisely: A Study of College Major Choice and Major Switching Behavior

This dissertation explores the college major decision-making process, both for initial and subsequent major choices, and analyzes the associations between major choice behaviors and student outcomes such as time to degree and probability of graduation.

Aug 31, 2018
Content

A Brief History of RAND

RAND was incorporated as a nonprofit corporation in 1948. From its early years to the present, RAND research is characterized by its objectivity and nonpartisanship, its quality and scientific rigor, and its dedication to improving policymaking on the most pressing issues of the day.

Aug 3, 2018
Commentary

Suggestions to Help EPA Successfully Implement Retrospective Reviews

The EPA's interest in including a systematic retrospective review element in new regulation has the potential to provide a transparent and well-structured method for assessing which decisions worked well and which didn't. If successful, it could serve as a role model for other regulatory agencies.

Jul 19, 2018
Dissertation

Dissertation

Value of Information for Policy Analysis

This dissertation considers the viability of applying Value of Information methods in complex systems for policy analysis, concluding that these methods can be applied, but that different methods are appropriate in different cases.

May 15, 2018
Brochure

RAND's Most Influential Research from 70 Years Working in the Public Interest

Over its 70-year history, RAND has continuously demonstrated that rigorous research and analysis can help address some of the world's most challenging problems.

May 14, 2018
Brochure

RAND Year in Review 2017

RAND President and CEO Michael Rich offers a year-end assessment of RAND's impact, highlighting ways in which the organization's findings and recommendations are helping to improve the health, security, and prosperity of individuals and communities throughout the world.

May 8, 2018
Brochure

Security 2040: Perils and Promise Over the Near Horizon

The Security 2040 initiative explores how new trends and technologies could impact the future of global security. The goal: Alert policymakers to potential future risks and recommend solutions.

Apr 24, 2018
Report

Report

Factoring Security Cooperation into Core U.S. Air Force Decisionmaking Processes: Incorporating Impact in Planning, Programming, and Capability Development

This report reviews two core U.S. Air Force decisionmaking processes to determine the extent to which decisionmakers consider security cooperation impact and to recommend ways to make such considerations systematic and explicit.

Apr 19, 2018
Report

Report

Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.

Apr 16, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Understanding Scientists' Computational Modeling Decisions About Climate Risk Management Strategies Using Values-Informed Mental Models

This study used values-informed mental models (ViMM) to capture how a set of scientists thinks about modeling CRM strategy tradeoffs and how their values influence this thinking.

Mar 7, 2018
Journal Article

Building a Values-Informed Mental Model for New Orleans Climate Risk Management

ViMM helps identify gaps between the values used by the public and experts to understand risk factors and strategies. This study suggests a framework to construct a more explicit model of the public's and CRM experts' and climate scientists' values.

Mar 7, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Scenario Techniques for Energy and Environmental Research: An Overview of Recent Developments to Broaden the Capacity to Deal with Complexity and Uncertainty

This TI gathers recent methodological innovations in quantitative techniques to push the frontiers of scenarios capabilities and demonstrates how they can address the dual challenge posed by the context of (deep) uncertainty and complexity.

Mar 6, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Distinguishing the Ratio Bias from Unsystematic Error: Situation and Individual-difference Effects

Research that tries to distinguish ratio bias, implying greater perceived likelihood with gambles involving larger versus smaller numbers, from unsystematic error, which results from not seeing the equivalence of the presentations more generally.

Feb 9, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Taking the Biggest First: Age Differences in Preferences for Monetary and Hedonic Sequences

We built from the literature to conduct an exploratory study of age differences in sequence preferences. Our findings show that older adults preferred to take the biggest event first.

Jan 30, 2018

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RAND Topic:
Decisionmaking

Topic Synonyms:
DA;
Decision Analysis;
Decision Making

Researcher Spotlight

Melissa L. Finucane

Senior Social and Behavioral Scientist

Melissa Finucane is a senior social and behavioral scientist at the RAND Corporation. Also a senior fellow at the East-West Center in Honolulu, Hawai'i, her interdisciplinary and policy-oriented research focuses on understanding the human dimensions of environmental health risks.
Craig A. Bond

QA Manager, Forces and Resources Policy Center (FRP), National Security Research Division (NSRD)

Craig Bond is an applied microeconomist at the RAND Corporation who specializes in natural resource and environmental economics, including stochastic dynamic modeling, resource valuation, consumer and producer choice, and applied welfare economics. He is also a professor at Pardee RAND Graduate…

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