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Decisionmaking

Commentary

What Strategic Decisions on the Horizon for the Department of Defense Can Best Be Shaped Through Wargaming?

The U.S. Marine Corps is not alone in its avid use of wargaming to shape its decisions of the future. The other services are conducting similar efforts with equal rigor and zeal. And as the national deficit grows and budgetary constraints mount, the Department of Defense will most likely increasingly leverage all its analytical tools, including wargaming.

Aug 3, 2020
Commentary

Wargaming the Department of Defense for Strategic Advantage

Defense acquisition, personnel, and management systems have long been seen as areas in need of reform, as costs and man-hours continue to increase over the years. Gaming new policies that govern these areas can offer early insights into potential stumbling blocks and provide leaders valuable feedback on decisions before major costs are incurred.

Aug 3, 2020
Multimedia

RAND 20/20: Governing by Artificial Intelligence

In this remote video conversation, RAND's Osonde A. Osoba discusses the use of AI systems in governance processes—from facial recognition technologies in state surveillance applications to risk-predictive tools applied in the criminal justice system. Brandon Baker hosts.

Jul 30, 2020
Commentary

Patients Should Have a Role in Deciding the Value of Medicines

Patients, their family members, and the general public have historically been excluded from contributing to health care value assessment models. But methods for including patient voices in research are far less complicated or demanding than some researchers believe they will be.

Jul 10, 2020
Commentary

Learning to Live in a Riskier World

Even as the public discussion about COVID-19 risk becomes increasingly polarized, many Americans are slowly and quietly balancing the threat of infection against valued daily activities, and learning to live in a riskier world.

Jul 2, 2020
Commentary

What Elinor Ostrom Teaches Us About Avoiding the 'Tragedy of the Commons' in Delivering the Public Interest in the Post COVID-19 World

The public interest can be an elusive concept, especially when trying to distinguish between shared and individual interests, a problem brought into sharper focus as we try to find the right path to a post COVID-19 world. Governments are seeking to do the best for their societies with limited information. As more data is being acquired, how can public policy achieve common interest?

Jun 22, 2020
Report

Health Care Resource Allocation Decisionmaking During a Pandemic

The Core Guidance Checklist can help health systems and policymakers make choices about how to allocate scarce but lifesaving resources—for patients and for health care workers—during the COVID-19 crisis.

Jun 18, 2020
Commentary

How Can Wargaming Improve Government Response to Catastrophic Events?

Wargames are abstracted models of national security challenges, where players' decisions and their consequences are adjudicated within a rules-based environment. Due to its inherent flexibility as a tool, wargaming can be applied to a wide range of issues. Yet, it is important to understand what wargaming can and cannot do.

May 29, 2020
Q&A

Modeling the Future of COVID-19: Q&A with RAND Experts

The phrase “flatten the curve” familiarized Americans with epidemiological models used to estimate virus transmission, cases, and potential deaths from COVID-19. But new models are needed as the country enters a different stage of the crisis.

May 26, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Meeting Climate, Mobility, and Equity Goals in Transportation Planning Under Wide-Ranging Scenarios: A Demonstration of Robust Decision Making

Robust Decision Making offers a promising complement and possibly future alternative to current prediction-based and scenario approaches that could help planners better manage in today's conditions of fast-paced change.

May 21, 2020
Report

Report

Enhancing Assessments of Space Mission Assurance

The authors describe decisionmaker needs for assessments of space mission assurance (SMA), challenges for conducting SMA assessments, the shortfalls that may result from the challenges, and options for addressing the shortfalls.

May 20, 2020
Commentary

Relaxing COVID-19 Restrictions Presents Stark Choices

RAND's new COVID-19 interventions impact tool uses epidemiological and economic models and continually refreshed data to estimate what could happen as restrictions are eased. The tool won't make the choices confronting state leaders less painful. But it can provide clear, evidence-based estimates of the health and economic trade-offs.

May 18, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Decision-making Competence in Older Adults: A Rosy View from a Longitudinal Investigation

Our study depicts a generally positive picture of age-related changes in three important aspects of decision-making competence and it shows that starting levels of decision-making competence are predictive of decision-making performance over time.

May 12, 2020
Commentary

Don't Make the Pandemic Worse with Poor Data Analysis

The need for immediate answers in the face of severe public health and economic distress may create a temptation to relax statistical standards. But urgency should not preclude expert analysis and honest assessments of uncertainty. Mistaken assumptions could lead to counterproductive actions.

May 6, 2020
Commentary

Leading with the Proper Use of Scientific Evidence Is Better Than Hiding Behind It

Evidence only has scientific meaning when it is part of a body of disciplinary knowledge produced by a community of scientists. Leading with scientific evidence, coupled with a wider values framework, may result in better outcomes for all.

May 5, 2020
Journal Article

Short-Term Solutions to a Long-Term Challenge: Rethinking Disaster Recovery Planning to Reduce Vulnerabilities and Inequities

We review case examples to illustrate how post-disaster policies may influence the nature, pace, and inclusiveness of community recovery.

Apr 30, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Drivers of Continued Implementation of Cultural Competence in Substance Use Disorder Treatment

This study examines whether the key characteristics of organizational decision makers predicted continued implementation of five different practices that represent organizational cultural competence in one of the most diverse substance use disorder treatment systems in the United States.

Apr 29, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Robust Decision Making and Scenario Discovery in the Absence of Formal Models

Robust decisionmaking (RDM) is a method for aiding decision making under deep uncertainty that uses models not as predictors but as generators of cases exploring assumptions and outcomes.

Apr 21, 2020
Report

Meeting U.S. Coast Guard Airpower Needs: Assessing the Options

Researchers assessed what airpower fleet mixes could best posture the U.S. Coast Guard to execute its various missions globally to meet future operational requirements. This report provides their findings and recommendations.

Apr 21, 2020
Commentary

The Great Reset: Policing in 2030

Scenarios of possible futures can help planners envision what the future could be, and plan ways to optimize opportunities or mitigate damage. Trends regarding retail operations, hotels, tax revenues, fines and forfeitures, and autonomous vehicles are all happening today. We've imagined how they might extend into the future.

Apr 20, 2020

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RAND Topic:
Decisionmaking

Topic Synonyms:
DA;
Decision Analysis;
Decision Making