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Decisionmaking

Journal Article

Journal Article

Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand

Good policy analysis needs routinely to address not only uncertainty about model inputs, but uncertainty and disagreements about the model itself—especially for complex systems. In the future, analysis that fails to do so may be regarded as fatally flawed.

Feb 11, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Could AI Drive Transformative Social Progress? What Would This Require?

This paper explores various strategies and business models for developing and deploying artificial intelligence-enabled products.

Feb 4, 2020
Brochure

Brochure

RAND's Impact: 2019 Year in Review

The RAND Corporation's mission is to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis; this Year in Review reflects on RAND's achievements in 2019.

Jan 20, 2020
Commentary

How the 'Ostrich Europe' Scenario Could Help Guide EU Education Policy

A future scenarios approach can help identify different ways in which the future may plausibly unfold. Seeing how policies implemented now play out in the different scenarios can show us what the possible implications of policy decisions could be. This in turn can contribute to evidence-based policy making.

Jan 13, 2020
Report

Implementing a New Mobility Vision for Rancho Higuera in a Deeply Uncertain, Fast-Changing World: Results from RAND Corporation Participatory Local Planning Workshops

Culver City seeks to reimagine mobility, shifting from cars to other transit modes. A RAND team helped the city develop an implementation plan using decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methods embedded in a participatory "shadow" process.

Jan 3, 2020
Commentary

A Climate Scientist's Brush with Wildfire

RAND researcher Robert Lempert was evacuated from the path of a wildfire. This experience emphasized for him the challenges of adapting to climate change, not merely because it is hard, but because it makes the familiar become unfamiliar in unexpected ways.

Dec 18, 2019
Journal Article

Journal Article

Culture and Cognition: Understanding Public Perceptions of Risk and (In)Action

This model demonstrates how cognitive structure, cultural schema, and environment awareness could be combined to improve risk communication. Case studies: one on decision makers facing extreme heat, and another on homeowners facing flood events.

Dec 12, 2019
Report

Air Force Capability Development Planning: Analytical Methods to Support Investment Decisions

RAND Project AIR FORCE examines analytical methods for Air Force capability development planning under conditions of deep uncertainty.

Dec 11, 2019
Journal Article

Understanding U.S. Health Systems: Using Mixed Methods to Unpack Organizational Complexity

Researchers need qualitative data to understand how health systems actually work and influence clinical practice.

Nov 26, 2019
Commentary

Did No One Audit the Apple Card Algorithm?

Complex, opaque technologies like artificial intelligence provide significant benefits to society. But those benefits don't eliminate the need for accountability and transparency.

Nov 21, 2019
Commentary

How Voters Can Assess New Climate Plans

While the U.S. government has announced its intention to withdraw from the Paris Climate Agreement, most presidential candidates and many states have proposed climate plans of their own. How might voters determine if any of these plans can seriously address climate change?

Nov 14, 2019
Journal Article

Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty: Climate Change and Infrastructure Management

This chapter very briefly addresses issues and approaches to decision making on adaptation to climate change.

Nov 12, 2019
Report

Understanding Russia's Intervention in Syria

Russia's military intervention in the Syrian civil war began in 2015. This decision was the result of an extraordinary set of political and military circumstances. What might cause Moscow to take similar actions in other conflicts beyond its immediate neighborhood?

Oct 31, 2019
Report

Assessing Force Sufficiency and Risk Using RAND's Multi-Period Assessment of Force Flow (MPAFF) Tool

This report describes RAND's Multi-Purpose Assessment of Force Flow tool for conducting time-phased analysis of Army force sufficiency under a variety of assumptions on force generation policies, readiness policies, and force employment policies.

Oct 28, 2019
Commentary

Economic Experiments for Global Impact

Implementing effective solutions for global socioeconomic development and poverty alleviation is a daunting challenge. However, RAND has seen over its decades of work in this area that data-based decisions can improve the welfare of the world's most vulnerable populations.

Oct 23, 2019
Journal Article

Sacramento Area Council of Governments Peer Review

This is a peer review of Robust Decision Making, an exploratory modeling approach for informing decisions under deep uncertainty, and the Exploratory Analysis and Modeling Tool, focusing applications for the Sacramento Area Council of Governments.

Sep 25, 2019
Report

How Willing Are NATO Members to Defend Their Baltic Allies?

What factors would make NATO allies more or less likely to respond to a Russian attack? And what can be done to reduce their vulnerability to Russian influence and to increase alliance cohesion?

Aug 29, 2019
Tool

Developing a Robust Water Strategy for Monterrey, Mexico: Diversification and Adaptation for Coping with Climate, Economic, and Technological Uncertainties — Planning Support Tool

This interactive tool allows users to explore data and analysis developed by the RAND Corporation and Tecnológico de Monterrey in support of Fondo de Agua Metropolitano de Monterrey's Monterrey Water Plan for 2050.

Aug 9, 2019
Report

Developing a Robust Water Strategy for Monterrey, Mexico: Diversification and Adaptation for Coping with Climate, Economic, and Technological Uncertainties

Tecnológico de Monterrey and RAND Corporation researchers help develop an adaptive water management strategy for Mexico's third-largest metropolitan area, Monterrey, using RAND's Robust Decision Making (RDM) methods.

Aug 9, 2019
Journal Article

Embedding a Children's Rights Perspective in Policy and Decision-Making

An overview of the extent to which children's rights are promoted and taken into account in policies and practice, considering policy frameworks at national level as well as those at EU level.

Aug 8, 2019

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RAND Topic:
Decisionmaking

Topic Synonyms:
DA;
Decision Analysis;
Decision Making