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Decisionmaking

Brochure

RAND's Impact: Year in Review 2021

RAND President and CEO Michael Rich offers a year-end assessment of RAND's impact, highlighting ways in which the organization's findings and recommendations are helping to improve the health, security, and prosperity of individuals and communities throughout the world. This Year in Review reflects on RAND's achievements in 2021.

Jan 7, 2022
Tool

Identifying and Planning for Vulnerabilities in the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District’s Water Management Plans

This interactive tool presents the results of a study that evaluated the performance of the San Bernardino Valley Municipal Water District water plans under a range of future conditions, including climate change, drought occurrence, and water demand.

Jan 6, 2022
Commentary

At the Intersection of Leadership, Strategy, and Foresight

Police leaders spend considerable time developing strategic plans, but events and circumstances can evolve in unanticipated ways. To create survivable plans, leaders should assess capabilities and the environment within which they work. To do so, they should incorporate foresight to develop the adaptability necessary to thrive.

Dec 28, 2021
Journal Article

Adaptive Water Management in the Face of Uncertainty: Integrating Machine Learning, Groundwater Modeling and Robust Decision Making

This study examines climate change and water resources management challenges facing water suppliers in drought-prone regions.

Dec 21, 2021
Journal Article

Recalibrating the Belt and Road Initiative Amidst Deep Uncertainties

We describe the deep uncertainties affecting Belt and Road Initiative decision making, and identify drawbacks of existing BRI policy analysis in light of its future challenges.

Dec 9, 2021
Commentary

Analytical Gaming Could Help the U.S. Coast Guard Address Key Challenges

By gradually expanding its gaming efforts, the U.S. Coast Guard might improve both the quality of its decisions and the strength of its relationships, making the service ever more capable as it navigates the challenges of the 21st century.

Nov 8, 2021
Journal Article

Reopening California: Seeking Robust, Non-Dominated COVID-19 Exit Strategies

This paper uses simulation models and the Robust Decision Making (RDM) approach to stress-test California's reopening strategy and other alternatives over a wide range of futures.

Nov 5, 2021
Report

A Structured Elicitation Approach to Identify Technology-Based Challenges: With Application to Inform Force Planning for Technological Surprise

What do experts envision as the largest technology-based challenges the U.S. Joint Force may encounter by 2040? The authors develop and implement an approach to elicit and evaluate 20 challenges identified by experts.

Oct 14, 2021
Report

What Drives U.S. Adversaries to Use Military Forces Abroad?

Where, how, and how often have China, Russia, and Iran intervened militarily since 1946? A review of their behavior and that of other U.S. adversaries identifies why they initiated military interventions and why they might do so in the future.

Sep 27, 2021
Report

Iran's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

In this report, the authors assess when, where, why, and how Iran conducts military interventions and identify key signposts of Iranian military interventions that can be used as early warning indicators for U.S. military planners.

Sep 27, 2021
Report

Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

Despite Russia's relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other U.S. competitor since 1991. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia conducts military interventions.

Sep 27, 2021
Journal Article

Reforming the Teaching and Conducting of Policy Studies to Deal Better with Complex Systems

The teaching and conduct of policy analysis needs updating to account better for the special challenges of social problems occurring in complex adaptive systems.

Sep 17, 2021
Essay

Costa Rica Leads the Way in Cutting Carbon Emissions

Almost every country has pledged to slash carbon emissions to slow the gears of global warming. Costa Rica's plan provides a glimpse of what a carbon-neutral future will look like. It shows how nations can take action and make investments that hold up, regardless of what future comes to pass.

Aug 30, 2021
Report

Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume I

The United States should aim to minimize the element of complexity for itself while maximizing it for its adversary in great-power competition and warfare. But what does complexity mean in an Air Force context? And how can it be used as a method of attack?

Aug 26, 2021
Report

Leveraging Complexity in Great-Power Competition and Warfare: Volume II

The Air Force should apply a complexity lens through which to review ongoing and future efforts to best leverage complexity to U.S. decision advantage. The technical companion to an initial exploration includes a literature review and a user manual.

Aug 26, 2021
Report

A Clean Sheet Approach to Space Acquisition in Light of the New Space Force

The authors describe an unconstrained "clean sheet" approach to space acquisition for the U.S. Space Force designed around the unique mission and calling of the new service.

Aug 25, 2021
Report

Russian Grand Strategy: Rhetoric and Reality

What is Russia's declared grand strategy? How do its actions and resource decisions match its declarations? The authors of this report offer answers to these questions and suggest implications for U.S. policymakers.

Aug 16, 2021
Report

Understanding the Ministry of Defence's Wider Contribution to UK Prosperity: Measuring Defence Output

The UK Ministry of Defence (MOD)'s Defence Science and Technology Laboratory (Dstl) commissioned RAND Europe to examine different approaches to assessing UK Defence's contribution to national prosperity.

Jul 14, 2021
Commentary

Will the United States Declare Freedom from COVID-19 Too Soon?

RAND analyzed what could happen with COVID-19 deaths in the United States if restrictions all go away on July 4. Fully reopening the economy before Biden's vaccination target was met doubled the average number of COVID-19 deaths between Independence Day and the end of the year.

May 21, 2021
Journal Article

Where to Next? PLA Considerations for Overseas Base Site Selection

There has been much speculation about where China's next overseas military base will be, but what does the Chinese military itself think about selecting the locations for its overseas military bases?

May 14, 2021

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RAND Topic:
Decisionmaking

Topic Synonyms:
DA;
Decision Analysis;
Decision Making

Researcher Spotlight

John Bordeaux

Senior Management Scientist

John Bordeaux (he/him) is a senior management scientist at the RAND Corporation. For over 30 years, he has provided research and advisory services in strategy, knowledge management, information integration, and data governance for federal and private sector interests. Preferred methods derive…
Robert J. Lempert

Director, Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition

Robert Lempert is a principal researcher at the RAND Corporation and director of the Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition. His research focuses on risk management and decisionmaking under conditions of deep uncertainty. Lempert’s work aims to…

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