Four Futures and an Agenda for the Field
Expert InsightsPublished Oct 1, 2026
This work was independently initiated and made possible by RAND’s own resources, including income from operations, unrestricted gifts from RAND supporters, and distributions from its long-term investment fund.
In this paper, the authors argue that policy analysis is at a watershed moment: AI-driven change, eroding trust in expertise, and shifting configurations of political authority undermine the institutional arrangements that once anchored policy analysis in public life. The field must revisit first principles and use those principles to modernize and guide renewed institutional design, policy analysis training, and research governance.
This work was made possible by a generous gift from Frederick S. Pardee and conducted by the Frederick S. Pardee Center for Longer Range Global Policy and the Future Human Condition within RAND Global and Emerging Risks.
This publication is part of the RAND expert insights series. The expert insights series presents perspectives on timely policy issues.
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