Complex Systems Analysis

  • Melting icebergs by the coast of Greenland


    Deep Decarbonization as a Risk Management Challenge

    Deep decarbonization is the idea of reducing net human greenhouse gas emissions to zero in the 21st century. There are three concepts that help explain the full scope of deep decarbonization as a risk management challenge.

    Oct 22, 2018

  • Aerial view of Miami, Florida


    Adapting to a Changing Climate in Southeast Florida

    Florida's Miami-Dade and Broward counties are vulnerable to flooding and intrusion of saltwater into drinking water. These risks are driven by sea level rise, changes in precipitation, and urban development. How can the region adapt?

    Jun 6, 2018

  • Report

    Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

    Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.

    Apr 16, 2018

  • Social network concept, people connected via dotted lines


    A General Agent-Based Model of Social Learning

    This report describes a general agent-based model (ABM) for studying social learning, and uses that general ABM to explore the relationship between micro-influence and macro-dynamics for broad classes of problems.

    Mar 31, 2017

  • The mascots of the Democratic and Republican parties are seen on a video screen at U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's campaign rally in Cleveland, Ohio, March 8, 2016


    Domestic Political Discord Is Now the Greatest Threat to U.S. Global Leadership

    The United States needs a coherent international strategy for today's turbulent world. But this will be hard to pursue without more domestic political consensus on America's global role.

    Jan 18, 2017

  • Scientist in a clean room, with data overlay


    Improving Decision Support for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control: Aligning Models and Other Tools with Policymakers' Needs

    This report provides an overview of decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, for policymakers and modelers and provides recommendations for using the tools to inform real-world infectious disease-related policy questions.

    Jul 12, 2016

  • U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Antonio Diaz inspects munitions before they are mounted onto an F-16C Fighting Falcon during flightline operations Jan. 9, 2015, at Atlantic City Air National Guard Base, N.J.


    Robust Decision Making Could Help Defense Resource Planning

    Defense planning needs a new approach to identify strategies that perform well over a wide range of threat and funding futures. RDM is designed to inform decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity, and as shown in an application to the munitions mix challenge, could prove quite useful.

    Feb 1, 2016

  • Electric power plant


    Modeling Industry Transformation and the Political Sustainability of Emission Control Policies

    Limiting climate change will require transformation of energy and other systems. A new model that uses Robust Decision Making tools enables decisionmakers to compare the long-term sustainability of alternative carbon emission reduction policies.

    Sep 6, 2013

  • Report

    Competition and Innovation Under Complexity

    Explores how increased complexity affects competition and innovation in the context of defense acquisition.

    Mar 10, 2009

  • Report

    Controlling Cocaine: Supply Versus Demand Programs

    This report analyzes the relative cost-effectiveness of various available drug interventions.

    Jan 1, 1994

  • Report

    Models, Complexity, and Error

    Building and using a model entail a set of related activities. Input data must be collected; the model itself must be precisely specified and constructed; and a method of interpreting the results must be developed.

    Jan 1, 1979

  • Report

    Policy and the Study of the Future: Given Complexity, Trends or Processes?

    At this early stage in the scientific study of the future for policy purposes, a number of important methodological choices face social scientists.

    Jan 1, 1972

  • Report

    Military-Industrial Complexities

    Examination of the military-industrial complex (MIC) controversy. The MIC is more heterogeneous and divided than extremists suppose; the defense sector employs more budgetary controls than do other sectors spending enormous governmental resource allo...

    Jan 1, 1969

  • Content

    Timothy R. Gulden

    Policy Researcher; Affiliate Faculty, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education PhD in public policy, University of Maryland; BA in liberal arts, Sarah Lawrence College

  • Content

    Benjamin M. Miller

    Economist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education Ph.D. in economics, University of California, San Diego; B.S. in economics, Purdue University

  • Content

    Sarah A. Nowak

    Senior Physical Scientist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School; Co-Director, Center for Scalable Computing and Analysis
    Education Ph.D. and M.S. in biomathematics, University of California, Los Angeles; B.S. in physics, MIT

  • Content

    Steven W. Popper

    Senior Economist; Professor of Science and Technology Policy, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education Ph.D. in economics, University of California, Berkeley; B.S. in biochemistry, University of Minnesota