Complex Systems Analysis

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Can Measures Change the World?

    The purpose of this article is to start a dialogue about how one can better use measurement to promote large-scale system change.

    Aug 21, 2020

  • Journal Article

    Journal Article

    Confronting Model Uncertainty in Policy Analysis for Complex Systems: What Policymakers Should Demand

    Good policy analysis needs routinely to address not only uncertainty about model inputs, but uncertainty and disagreements about the model itself—especially for complex systems. In the future, analysis that fails to do so may be regarded as fatally flawed.

    Feb 11, 2020

  • Culver City sign with lights at night, photo by albertc111/AdobeStock

    Report

    Implementing a New Mobility Vision for Rancho Higuera in a Deeply Uncertain, Fast-Changing World: Results from RAND Corporation Participatory Local Planning Workshops

    Culver City seeks to reimagine mobility, shifting from cars to other transit modes. A RAND team helped the city develop an implementation plan using decision making under deep uncertainty (DMDU) methods embedded in a participatory "shadow" process.

    Jan 3, 2020

  • Melting icebergs by the coast of Greenland

    Report

    Deep Decarbonization as a Risk Management Challenge

    Deep decarbonization is the idea of reducing net human greenhouse gas emissions to zero in the 21st century. There are three concepts that help explain the full scope of deep decarbonization as a risk management challenge.

    Oct 22, 2018

  • Aerial view of Miami, Florida

    Report

    Adapting to a Changing Climate in Southeast Florida

    Florida's Miami-Dade and Broward counties are vulnerable to flooding and intrusion of saltwater into drinking water. These risks are driven by sea level rise, changes in precipitation, and urban development. How can the region adapt?

    Jun 6, 2018

  • Report

    Report

    Priority Challenges for Social and Behavioral Research and Its Modeling

    Social-behavioral modeling is famously hard. This report examines shortcomings and obstacles -- some inherent to complex adaptive systems broadly and some due to current methods and practices -- then discusses steps that deserve priority attention.

    Apr 16, 2018

  • Social network concept, people connected via dotted lines

    Report

    A General Agent-Based Model of Social Learning

    This report describes a general agent-based model (ABM) for studying social learning, and uses that general ABM to explore the relationship between micro-influence and macro-dynamics for broad classes of problems.

    Mar 31, 2017

  • The mascots of the Democratic and Republican parties are seen on a video screen at U.S. presidential candidate Hillary Clinton's campaign rally in Cleveland, Ohio, March 8, 2016

    Report

    Domestic Political Discord Is Now the Greatest Threat to U.S. Global Leadership

    The United States needs a coherent international strategy for today's turbulent world. But this will be hard to pursue without more domestic political consensus on America's global role.

    Jan 18, 2017

  • Scientist in a clean room, with data overlay

    Report

    Improving Decision Support for Infectious Disease Prevention and Control: Aligning Models and Other Tools with Policymakers' Needs

    This report provides an overview of decision-support tools, including models and nonmodeling approaches, for policymakers and modelers and provides recommendations for using the tools to inform real-world infectious disease-related policy questions.

    Jul 12, 2016

  • U.S. Air Force Staff Sgt. Antonio Diaz inspects munitions before they are mounted onto an F-16C Fighting Falcon during flightline operations Jan. 9, 2015, at Atlantic City Air National Guard Base, N.J.

    Report

    Robust Decision Making Could Help Defense Resource Planning

    Defense planning needs a new approach to identify strategies that perform well over a wide range of threat and funding futures. RDM is designed to inform decisions under conditions of deep uncertainty and complexity, and as shown in an application to the munitions mix challenge, could prove quite useful.

    Feb 1, 2016

  • Electric power plant

    Report

    Modeling Industry Transformation and the Political Sustainability of Emission Control Policies

    Limiting climate change will require transformation of energy and other systems. A new model that uses Robust Decision Making tools enables decisionmakers to compare the long-term sustainability of alternative carbon emission reduction policies.

    Sep 6, 2013

  • Report

    Report

    Competition and Innovation Under Complexity

    Explores how increased complexity affects competition and innovation in the context of defense acquisition.

    Mar 10, 2009

  • Report

    Report

    Controlling Cocaine: Supply Versus Demand Programs

    This report analyzes the relative cost-effectiveness of various available drug interventions.

    Jan 1, 1994

  • Report

    Report

    Models, Complexity, and Error

    Building and using a model entail a set of related activities. Input data must be collected; the model itself must be precisely specified and constructed; and a method of interpreting the results must be developed.

    Jan 1, 1979

  • Report

    Report

    Policy and the Study of the Future: Given Complexity, Trends or Processes?

    At this early stage in the scientific study of the future for policy purposes, a number of important methodological choices face social scientists.

    Jan 1, 1972

  • Report

    Report

    Military-Industrial Complexities

    Examination of the military-industrial complex (MIC) controversy. The MIC is more heterogeneous and divided than extremists suppose; the defense sector employs more budgetary controls than do other sectors spending enormous governmental resource allo...

    Jan 1, 1969

  • Content

    Content

    Swaptik Chowdhury

    Assistant Policy Researcher, RAND; Ph.D. Student, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education M.S. in structural engineering (research), Arizona State University; B.Tech. in civil engineering, VIT University, India

  • Content

    Content

    Michele Abbott

    Assistant Policy Researcher; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education M.Phil. in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; B.S. in international business, University of Maryland

  • Content

    Content

    Samer Atshan

    Assistant Policy Researcher; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education M.P.A., The University of Texas at Austin; M.S. in energy and earth resources, The University of Texas at Austin; B.Eng. in mechanical engineering, American University of Beirut

  • Content

    Content

    Lauren Davis

    Assistant Policy Researcher; Ph.D. Candidate, Pardee RAND Graduate School
    Education M.Phil in policy analysis, Pardee RAND Graduate School; M.A. in economics, Vanderbilt University; B.S. in economics, Samford University; B.A. in public administration, Samford University