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Delphi Method

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RAND developed the Delphi method in the 1950s, originally to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The method entails a group of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires and subsequently receive feedback in the form of a statistical representation of the "group response," after which the process repeats itself. The goal is to reduce the range of responses and arrive at something closer to expert consensus. The Delphi Method has been widely adopted and is still in use today.

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Giving Patients a Voice in Medical Guidelines

Dec 31, 2019

Clinical guidelines are the user manuals of modern medicine. They can dictate insurance coverage and help hospitals set quality standards. Yet they often lack the perspective of those who care the most about good treatment: patients and their caregivers. Researchers are working to change that.
Report

The Delphi Method Uses Informed, Intuitive Judgment to Analyze the Future

Nov 30, 1967

The Delphi method solicits the opinions of experts through a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersed with information and opinion feedback in order to establish a convergence of opinion.

Explore Delphi Method

Journal Article

Response Changes in Delphi Processes: Why Is It Important to Provide High-Quality Feedback to Delphi Participants?

Participants in Delphi studies change some of their responses after group feedback and discussion. The results support previous findings that suggest that even modest changes between Delphi rounds may affect the final study findings.

Sep 24, 2020
Blog

How Accurate Were Predictions for the Future?

Anticipating the risks and opportunities posed by all kinds of change is a RAND specialty. In 1964, using RAND's now-famous Delphi method, experts pondered topics like medical advancements, space, artificial intelligence, and controlling the weather.

Jul 14, 2020
Journal Article

Patient and Caregiver Perspectives on Guideline Adherence: The Case of Endocrine and Bone Health Recommendations for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

The purpose of this study is to explore factors that are likely to affect patient/caregiver adherence to endocrine and bone health recommendations for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD).

Feb 14, 2020
Journal Article

Journal Article

Eight Priorities for Improving Primary Care Access Management in Healthcare Organizations: Results of a Modified Delphi Stakeholder Panel

The panel achieved consensus on definitions of optimal access and access management, on eight urgent and important priorities for guiding access management improvement, and on 1–3 recommendations per priority. Each recommendation is supported by referenced, panel-approved suggestions for implementation.

Feb 12, 2020
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Effecting Change, Improving Health

The RAND Corporation is dedicated to transforming the wellbeing of all people by improving health care systems in the United States and abroad.

Feb 7, 2020
Journal Article

Participant Experiences with a New Online Modified-Delphi Approach for Engaging Patients and Caregivers in Developing Clinical Guidelines

Participants were satisfied with an online approach to participating in guideline development.

Nov 21, 2019
Journal Article

Practical Considerations in Using Online Modified-Delphi Approaches to Engage Patients and Other Stakeholders in Clinical Practice Guideline Development

This article's objective is to illustrate how to use an online modified-Delphi approach to engage patients and their representatives during different stages of clinical practice guidelines development.

Nov 21, 2019
Journal Article

The RAND/PPMD Patient-Centeredness Method: A Novel Online Approach to Engaging Patients and Their Representatives in Guideline Development

The RAND/PPMD Patient-Centeredness Method allows patients and their representatives to provide input in clinical practice guidelines.

Nov 21, 2019
Journal Article

Using an Online Modified-Delphi Approach to Engage Patients and Caregivers in Determining the Patient-Centeredness of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Care Considerations

Clinical guidelines that meet patient-centeredness criteria are likely to be consistent with the preferences, needs, and values of families dealing with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Nov 21, 2019
Report

What Could Help Law Enforcement Deal with Crime on the Dark Web?

Crime in traditional online forums often leaves a trail of data that can be followed. But on the dark web, the process of collecting those data and turning them into evidence can be difficult. A panel of law enforcement practitioners and researchers identified ways to address this challenge.

Oct 29, 2019
Report

Report

Leveraging Technology to Enhance Community Supervision: Identifying Needs to Address Current and Emerging Concerns

An expert workshop of correctional administrators and researchers explored how technology can be used to address key challenges faced by community corrections agencies.

Oct 28, 2019
Report

Recommendations for Improving Access to Primary Care

Access to primary care is critical for ensuring population health. Evidence-based priorities can help health care organizations improve access and access management.

Sep 5, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Citizen Science: Generating Ideas and Exploring Consensus

The final report in a three-part series on citizen science looks at the growing number of online tools for gathering and understanding opinions.

Aug 16, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Lack of Preregistered Analysis Plans Allows Unacceptable Data Mining for and Selective Reporting of Consensus in Delphi Studies

A lack of standards and norms for defining and publicly registering analysis plans in advance threatens the credibility of using consensus-oriented Delphi processes to inform health research practice, and policy.

Apr 17, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Involving Stakeholders in Programme Theory Specification: Discussion of a Systematic, Consensus-Based Approach

Non-academic developers of a complex intervention can arrive at consensus about programme theory after the programme has been developed and actively participate in the development of a logic model to be used as a framework for subsequent evaluation.

Mar 28, 2018
Journal Article

Practical Considerations for Using Online Methods to Engage Patients in Guideline Development

This study developed practical considerations for including large, diverse, and geographically dispersed groups of patients in clinical practice guideline development through online engagement methods.

Oct 31, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Standardization of Health Outcomes Assessment for Depression and Anxiety: Recommendations from the ICHOM Depression and Anxiety Working Group

Experts and patient advocates developed recommendations for an internationally standardized dataset to measure patient-reported outcomes for depression and anxiety disorders.

Sep 6, 2017
Journal Article

Engaging Patients and Caregivers Managing Rare Diseases to Improve the Methods of Clinical Guideline Development: A Research Protocol

A new, online method to engage more patients and caregivers in developing clinical guidelines will be created and then tested, using Duchenne muscular dystrophy as an example.

Jun 2, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Screening Tool of Older Person's Prescriptions: Screening Tools to Alert Doctors to Right Treatment Medication Criteria Modified for U.S. Nursing Home Setting

Experts have identified new criteria for assessing the quality of prescribing in nursing homes.

Mar 15, 2017

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RAND Topic:
Delphi Method

Topic Synonyms:
Delphi Technique

Research conducted by

RAND Project AIR FORCE