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Delphi Method

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RAND developed the Delphi method in the 1950s, originally to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The method entails a group of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires and subsequently receive feedback in the form of a statistical representation of the "group response," after which the process repeats itself. The goal is to reduce the range of responses and arrive at something closer to expert consensus. The Delphi Method has been widely adopted and is still in use today.

Essay

Giving Patients a Voice in Medical Guidelines

Dec 31, 2019

Clinical guidelines are the user manuals of modern medicine. They can dictate insurance coverage and help hospitals set quality standards. Yet they often lack the perspective of those who care the most about good treatment: patients and their caregivers. Researchers are working to change that.
Report

The Delphi Method Uses Informed, Intuitive Judgment to Analyze the Future

Nov 30, 1967

The Delphi method solicits the opinions of experts through a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersed with information and opinion feedback in order to establish a convergence of opinion.

Explore Delphi Method

Journal Article

Consensus-based Approach to Managing Opioids, Including Opioid Misuse and Opioid Use Disorder, in Patients with Serious Illness: Protocol for a Modified Delphi Process

Using a modified Delphi approach, we created seven patient cases that capture important management challenges in individuals with serious illness prescribed opioid therapy.

Sep 22, 2021
Journal Article

Informing the Development of a Standardized Clinical Definition of Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome: Protocol for a Modified-Delphi Expert Panel

The goal of this paper is to describe a protocol for a systematic expert panel process to inform the development of a clinical definition of neonatal abstinence syndrome.

Jul 23, 2021
Report

Online Dispute Resolution: Perspectives to Support Successful Implementation and Outcomes in Court Proceedings

Online dispute resolution provides a forum for the resolution of court matters that was especially important during the COVID-19 pandemic. A panel of experts identified strategies to improve access to justice using these platforms.

May 14, 2021
Report

Informing the Development of Standardized Clinical Definitions of Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome and Neonatal Opioid Withdrawal Syndrome: Results of Two Modified-Delphi Expert Panels

The authors describe the results of two modified-Delphi expert panels used to inform the work of a federal steering committee on the development of clinical definitions of neonatal abstinence syndrome and neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome.

May 3, 2021
Journal Article

Online Modified-Delphi: A Potential Method for Continuous Patient Engagement Across Stages of Clinical Practice Guideline Development

In this Perspective, we make the case for, and provide an approach to, using online Delphi approaches--particularly the online modified-Delphi--for engaging a panel of patients continuously throughout all stages of CPG development.

Mar 31, 2021
Journal Article

Priority-Setting to Address the Geriatric Pharmacoparadox for Pain Management: A Nursing Home Stakeholder Delphi Study

Our objective was to explore the extent of consensus among expert stakeholders regarding what analgesic issues should be prioritized for comparative-effectiveness studies of beneficial and adverse effects of analgesic regimens in nursing home residents.

Feb 25, 2021
Report

Measures and Methodology for International Comparisons of Health Care System Performance: Final Report

RAND researchers worked with 15 experts in quality measurement, clinical care, and health economics to generate potential measure constructs that could improve the U.S. ability to learn from international comparisons of health system performance.

Feb 24, 2021
Journal Article

ADAPT Study: Adaptation of Evidence-Informed Complex Population Health Interventions for Implementation And/Or Re-Evaluation in New Contexts: Protocol for a Delphi Consensus Exercise to Develop Guidance

A Delphi consensus exercise to gather expert opinion on the adaptation, implementation and re-evaluation of complex population health interventions in new contexts.

Jan 22, 2021
Journal Article

Nature and Predictors of Response Changes in Modified-Delphi Panels

This article describes the extent and direction of response changes between modified-Delphi rounds and identifies factors that affect participants' response changes.

Jan 7, 2021
Journal Article

Response Changes in Delphi Processes: Why Is It Important to Provide High-Quality Feedback to Delphi Participants?

Participants in Delphi studies change some of their responses after group feedback and discussion. The results support previous findings that suggest that even modest changes between Delphi rounds may affect the final study findings.

Sep 24, 2020
Blog

How Accurate Were Predictions for the Future?

Anticipating the risks and opportunities posed by all kinds of change is a RAND specialty. In 1964, using RAND's now-famous Delphi method, experts pondered topics like medical advancements, space, artificial intelligence, and controlling the weather.

Jul 14, 2020
Journal Article

Patient and Caregiver Perspectives on Guideline Adherence: The Case of Endocrine and Bone Health Recommendations for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

The purpose of this study is to explore factors that are likely to affect patient/caregiver adherence to endocrine and bone health recommendations for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD).

Feb 14, 2020
Journal Article

Eight Priorities for Improving Primary Care Access Management in Healthcare Organizations: Results of a Modified Delphi Stakeholder Panel

The panel achieved consensus on definitions of optimal access and access management, on eight urgent and important priorities for guiding access management improvement, and on 1–3 recommendations per priority. Each recommendation is supported by referenced, panel-approved suggestions for implementation.

Feb 12, 2020
Brochure

Effecting Change, Improving Health

The RAND Corporation is dedicated to transforming the wellbeing of all people by improving health care systems in the United States and abroad.

Feb 7, 2020
Journal Article

Participant Experiences with a New Online Modified-Delphi Approach for Engaging Patients and Caregivers in Developing Clinical Guidelines

Participants were satisfied with an online approach to participating in guideline development.

Nov 21, 2019
Journal Article

Practical Considerations in Using Online Modified-Delphi Approaches to Engage Patients and Other Stakeholders in Clinical Practice Guideline Development

This article's objective is to illustrate how to use an online modified-Delphi approach to engage patients and their representatives during different stages of clinical practice guidelines development.

Nov 21, 2019
Journal Article

The RAND/PPMD Patient-Centeredness Method: A Novel Online Approach to Engaging Patients and Their Representatives in Guideline Development

The RAND/PPMD Patient-Centeredness Method allows patients and their representatives to provide input in clinical practice guidelines.

Nov 21, 2019
Journal Article

Using an Online Modified-Delphi Approach to Engage Patients and Caregivers in Determining the Patient-Centeredness of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Care Considerations

Clinical guidelines that meet patient-centeredness criteria are likely to be consistent with the preferences, needs, and values of families dealing with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Nov 21, 2019
Report

What Could Help Law Enforcement Deal with Crime on the Dark Web?

Crime in traditional online forums often leaves a trail of data that can be followed. But on the dark web, the process of collecting those data and turning them into evidence can be difficult. A panel of law enforcement practitioners and researchers identified ways to address this challenge.

Oct 29, 2019

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RAND Topic:
Delphi Method

Topic Synonyms:
Delphi Technique

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