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Delphi Method

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RAND developed the Delphi method in the 1950s, originally to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The method entails a group of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires and subsequently receive feedback in the form of a statistical representation of the "group response," after which the process repeats itself. The goal is to reduce the range of responses and arrive at something closer to expert consensus. The Delphi Method has been widely adopted and is still in use today.

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The Delphi Method Uses Informed, Intuitive Judgment to Analyze the Future

Nov 30, 1967

The Delphi method solicits the opinions of experts through a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersed with information and opinion feedback in order to establish a convergence of opinion.

Explore Delphi Method

Report

Recommendations for Improving Access to Primary Care

Access to primary care is critical for ensuring population health. Evidence-based priorities can help health care organizations improve access and access management.

Sep 5, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Citizen Science: Generating Ideas and Exploring Consensus

The final report in a three-part series on citizen science looks at the growing number of online tools for gathering and understanding opinions.

Aug 16, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Lack of Preregistered Analysis Plans Allows Unacceptable Data Mining for and Selective Reporting of Consensus in Delphi Studies

A lack of standards and norms for defining and publicly registering analysis plans in advance threatens the credibility of using consensus-oriented Delphi processes to inform health research practice, and policy.

Apr 17, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Involving Stakeholders in Programme Theory Specification: Discussion of a Systematic, Consensus-Based Approach

Non-academic developers of a complex intervention can arrive at consensus about programme theory after the programme has been developed and actively participate in the development of a logic model to be used as a framework for subsequent evaluation.

Mar 28, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Practical Considerations for Using Online Methods to Engage Patients in Guideline Development

This study developed practical considerations for including large, diverse, and geographically dispersed groups of patients in clinical practice guideline development through online engagement methods.

Oct 31, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Standardization of Health Outcomes Assessment for Depression and Anxiety: Recommendations from the ICHOM Depression and Anxiety Working Group

Experts and patient advocates developed recommendations for an internationally standardized dataset to measure patient-reported outcomes for depression and anxiety disorders.

Sep 6, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Engaging Patients and Caregivers Managing Rare Diseases to Improve the Methods of Clinical Guideline Development: A Research Protocol

A new, online method to engage more patients and caregivers in developing clinical guidelines will be created and then tested, using Duchenne muscular dystrophy as an example.

Jun 2, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Screening Tool of Older Person's Prescriptions: Screening Tools to Alert Doctors to Right Treatment Medication Criteria Modified for U.S. Nursing Home Setting

Experts have identified new criteria for assessing the quality of prescribing in nursing homes.

Mar 15, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Comparative Analysis of Stakeholder Experience with an Online Approach to Prioritizing Patient-Centered Research Topics

Engaging diverse groups of stakeholders through online collaborative platforms is a promising and scalable approach to prioritizing patient-centered research topics.

Mar 14, 2017
Journal Article

Journal Article

Acceptability of an Online Modified Delphi Panel Approach for Developing Health Services Performance Measures: Results from 3 Panels on Arthritis Research

An online Delphi-based process to select criteria for defining health care quality was rated as acceptable by three groups of participants, indicating it could be used to engage stakeholders in developing performance measures.

Sep 29, 2016
Journal Article

Journal Article

SEaRCH™ Expert Panel Process: Streamlining the Link Between Evidence and Practice

In this paper we describe expert panels and ways to adapt those models to form part of Samueli Institute's Scientific Evaluation and Research of Claims in Health Care (SEaRCH™) program.

Jan 21, 2016
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Report

The Potential of Blind Collaborative Justice: Testing the Impact of Expert Blinding and Consensus Building on the Validity of Forensic Testimony

RAND researchers investigated two potential contributors to biased testimony within adversarial litigation involving forensic evidence: experts' knowledge of which side they were testifying for, and lack of input from relevant scientific communities.

Aug 7, 2015
Journal Article

A Conceptual Framework and Protocol for Defining Clinical Decision Support Objectives Applicable to Medical Specialties

This article describes a conceptual framework and protocol that combines evidence review with expert opinion, using a modified Delphi expert panel process, to elicit clinically meaningful objectives for clinical decision support directly from specialists.

Sep 1, 2012
News Release

News Release

New RAND Research System Gathers, Analyzes Expert Opinions

Researchers have developed a new method of eliciting and analyzing opinions from a large group of experts and laypeople to aid complex decisionmaking, adapting online and social media technologies to lower the cost of such activities while expanding the types of people who can be queried.

Jun 14, 2011
Journal Article

Journal Article

New RAND Research System Gathers, Analyzes Expert Opinions

Researchers have developed a new method of eliciting and analyzing opinions from a large group of experts and laypeople to aid complex decisionmaking, adapting online and social media technologies to lower the cost of such activities while expanding the types of people who can be queried.

Dec 31, 2010
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A Delicate Balance: Portfolio Analysis and Management for Intelligence Information Dissemination Programs

An application of RAND's PortMan portfolio analysis and Delphi methods for the National Security Agency (NSA) that enables allocation of research and development (R&D) and operations and maintenance (O&M) resources according to value, risk, and cost.

Dec 15, 2009
Journal Article

Journal Article

Identifying Urban Flashpoints: A Delphi-Derived Model for Scoring Cities' Vulnerability to Large-Scale Unrest

This article presents a method for the assessment of cities' vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest. Results include a tool that will allow users to rank cities on their vulnerability to large-scale urban unrest.

Dec 31, 2007
Journal Article

Innovative Approaches to Obtaining Community Feedback in the Witness for Wellness Experience

Awareness of the need for innovative approaches to obtaining feedback in community-based participatory research (CBPR) is increasing.

Dec 31, 2005
Journal Article

Selecting Performance Measures by Consensus

A description of an innovative method for choosing performance measures for early psychosis treatment services via a Delphi group consensus method.

Dec 31, 2004
Journal Article

The Appropriateness of Treatment of Benign Prostatic Hyperplasia

Can guidelines to increase appropriate health care, usually done at the national level, be developed at an international level? Two panels of experienced urologists used a modified Delphi process to rate 1152 indications for the most common treatments for BPH on a nine-point scale.

Dec 31, 2000

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RAND Topic:
Delphi Method

Topic Synonyms:
Delphi Technique

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RAND Project AIR FORCE