Delphi Method

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RAND developed the Delphi method in the 1950s, originally to forecast the impact of technology on warfare. The method entails a group of experts who anonymously reply to questionnaires and subsequently receive feedback in the form of a statistical representation of the "group response," after which the process repeats itself. The goal is to reduce the range of responses and arrive at something closer to expert consensus. The Delphi Method has been widely adopted and is still in use today.

  • One doctor walking into a room to meet another doctor, illustration by Malte Müller

    Essay

    Giving Patients a Voice in Medical Guidelines

    Dec 31, 2019

    Clinical guidelines are the user manuals of modern medicine. They can dictate insurance coverage and help hospitals set quality standards. Yet they often lack the perspective of those who care the most about good treatment: patients and their caregivers. Researchers are working to change that.

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    Report

    The Delphi Method Uses Informed, Intuitive Judgment to Analyze the Future

    Nov 30, 1967

    The Delphi method solicits the opinions of experts through a series of carefully designed questionnaires interspersed with information and opinion feedback in order to establish a convergence of opinion.

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