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Delphi Method

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The Delphi method was developed by RAND in the 1950s to forecast the effect of technology on warfare. It has since been applied to health care, education, management, and environmental science. Today, groups of experts or stakeholders use online tools such as ExpertLens to anonymously answer questionnaires, receive feedback that represents the “group response,” discuss, and revise their answers to see whether they can approach expert consensus.

Tool

ExpertLens: An Online Modified-Delphi Approach to Stakeholder Engagement and Expert Elicitation

Oct 25, 2021

When making complex decisions, researchers and policymakers often seek the input of many stakeholders and individuals with varied perspectives. ExpertLens is an online, modified-Delphi application developed by research and programming experts at the RAND Corporation to help achieve these goals easily and cost effectively.
Essay

Giving Patients a Voice in Medical Guidelines

Dec 31, 2019

Clinical guidelines are the user manuals of modern medicine. They can dictate insurance coverage and help hospitals set quality standards. Yet they often lack the perspective of those who care the most about good treatment: patients and their caregivers. Researchers are working to change that.

Explore Delphi Method

Journal Article

Improving Mental Health Guardianship: From Prevention to Treatment

The authors sought to identify the most promising strategies for improving the mental health guardianship process in Los Angeles County for adults with mental illness who are gravely disabled.

Dec 7, 2021
Commentary

Engaging Different Types of Practitioners in the Complex Social Policy Area of Adverse Childhood Experiences

Understanding how stakeholders make sense of and prioritize available evidence can help improve the policies and practices that affect people's lives. A modified Delphi approach could engage with stakeholders with different, overlapping expertise and help open a way to this understanding.

Oct 21, 2021
Report

Engaging multi-disciplinary practitioners in a complex field of social policy: A methodological discussion paper

This paper shares lessons learnt from engaging multi-disciplinary practitioners in a complex field of social policy in a consensus building exercise using an adapted Delphi-method. It is written for other organisations or researchers considering a similar approach.

Oct 21, 2021
Journal Article

Consensus-based Approach to Managing Opioids, Including Opioid Misuse and Opioid Use Disorder, in Patients with Serious Illness: Protocol for a Modified Delphi Process

Using a modified Delphi approach, we created seven patient cases that capture important management challenges in individuals with serious illness prescribed opioid therapy.

Sep 22, 2021
Journal Article

Informing the Development of a Standardized Clinical Definition of Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome: Protocol for a Modified-Delphi Expert Panel

The goal of this paper is to describe a protocol for a systematic expert panel process to inform the development of a clinical definition of neonatal abstinence syndrome.

Jul 23, 2021
Report

Online Dispute Resolution: Perspectives to Support Successful Implementation and Outcomes in Court Proceedings

Online dispute resolution provides a forum for the resolution of court matters that was especially important during the COVID-19 pandemic. A panel of experts identified strategies to improve access to justice using these platforms.

May 14, 2021
Report

Informing the Development of Standardized Clinical Definitions of Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome and Neonatal Opioid Withdrawal Syndrome: Results of Two Modified-Delphi Expert Panels

The authors describe the results of two modified-Delphi expert panels used to inform the work of a federal steering committee on the development of clinical definitions of neonatal abstinence syndrome and neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome.

May 3, 2021
Journal Article

Online Modified-Delphi: A Potential Method for Continuous Patient Engagement Across Stages of Clinical Practice Guideline Development

In this Perspective, we make the case for, and provide an approach to, using online Delphi approaches--particularly the online modified-Delphi--for engaging a panel of patients continuously throughout all stages of CPG development.

Mar 31, 2021
Journal Article

Priority-Setting to Address the Geriatric Pharmacoparadox for Pain Management: A Nursing Home Stakeholder Delphi Study

Our objective was to explore the extent of consensus among expert stakeholders regarding what analgesic issues should be prioritized for comparative-effectiveness studies of beneficial and adverse effects of analgesic regimens in nursing home residents.

Feb 25, 2021
Report

Measures and Methodology for International Comparisons of Health Care System Performance: Final Report

RAND researchers worked with 15 experts in quality measurement, clinical care, and health economics to generate potential measure constructs that could improve the U.S. ability to learn from international comparisons of health system performance.

Feb 24, 2021
Journal Article

ADAPT Study: Adaptation of Evidence-Informed Complex Population Health Interventions for Implementation And/Or Re-Evaluation in New Contexts: Protocol for a Delphi Consensus Exercise to Develop Guidance

A Delphi consensus exercise to gather expert opinion on the adaptation, implementation and re-evaluation of complex population health interventions in new contexts.

Jan 22, 2021
Journal Article

Nature and Predictors of Response Changes in Modified-Delphi Panels

This article describes the extent and direction of response changes between modified-Delphi rounds and identifies factors that affect participants' response changes.

Jan 7, 2021
Journal Article

Response Changes in Delphi Processes: Why Is It Important to Provide High-Quality Feedback to Delphi Participants?

Participants in Delphi studies change some of their responses after group feedback and discussion. The results support previous findings that suggest that even modest changes between Delphi rounds may affect the final study findings.

Sep 24, 2020
Blog

How Accurate Were Predictions for the Future?

Anticipating the risks and opportunities posed by all kinds of change is a RAND specialty. In 1964, using RAND's now-famous Delphi method, experts pondered topics like medical advancements, space, artificial intelligence, and controlling the weather.

Jul 14, 2020
Journal Article

Patient and Caregiver Perspectives on Guideline Adherence: The Case of Endocrine and Bone Health Recommendations for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy

The purpose of this study is to explore factors that are likely to affect patient/caregiver adherence to endocrine and bone health recommendations for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD).

Feb 14, 2020
Journal Article

Eight Priorities for Improving Primary Care Access Management in Healthcare Organizations: Results of a Modified Delphi Stakeholder Panel

The panel achieved consensus on definitions of optimal access and access management, on eight urgent and important priorities for guiding access management improvement, and on 1–3 recommendations per priority. Each recommendation is supported by referenced, panel-approved suggestions for implementation.

Feb 12, 2020
Brochure

Effecting Change, Improving Health

The RAND Corporation is dedicated to transforming the wellbeing of all people by improving health care systems in the United States and abroad.

Feb 7, 2020
Journal Article

Using an Online Modified-Delphi Approach to Engage Patients and Caregivers in Determining the Patient-Centeredness of Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy Care Considerations

Clinical guidelines that meet patient-centeredness criteria are likely to be consistent with the preferences, needs, and values of families dealing with Duchenne muscular dystrophy.

Nov 21, 2019
Journal Article

Participant Experiences with a New Online Modified-Delphi Approach for Engaging Patients and Caregivers in Developing Clinical Guidelines

Participants were satisfied with an online approach to participating in guideline development.

Nov 21, 2019

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RAND Topic:
Delphi Method

Topic Synonyms:
Delphi Technique

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