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Delphi Method

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The Delphi method was developed by RAND in the 1950s to forecast the effect of technology on warfare. It has since been applied to health care, education, management, and environmental science. Today, groups of experts or stakeholders use online tools such as ExpertLens to anonymously answer questionnaires, receive feedback that represents the “group response,” discuss, and revise their answers to see whether they can approach expert consensus.

Tool
ExpertLens: An Online Modified-Delphi Approach to Stakeholder Engagement and Expert Elicitation
When making complex decisions, researchers and policymakers often seek the input of many stakeholders and individuals with varied perspectives. ExpertLens is an online, modified-Delphi application developed by research and programming experts at the RAND Corporation to help achieve these goals easily and cost effectively.
Oct 25, 2021
Commentary
Engaging Different Types of Practitioners in the Complex Social Policy Area of Adverse Childhood Experiences
Understanding how stakeholders make sense of and prioritize available evidence can help improve the policies and practices that affect people's lives. A modified Delphi approach could engage with stakeholders with different, overlapping expertise and help open a way to this understanding.
Oct 21, 2021

Explore Delphi Method

Report
Elicitation of Climate Information to Support Water Agency Planning: Report of a Workshop with the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission
Expert elicitation can supplement information from climate models to support adaptation planning. This report describes how the San Francisco Public Utilities Commission used elicitation to identify climate impacts on the city's water supply.
May 8, 2023
Journal Article
The Impact of Panel Composition and Topic on Stakeholder Perspectives: Generating Hypotheses from Online Maternal and Child Health Modified-Delphi Panels
This study develops hypotheses about the impact of panel composition and topic on the propensity and meaningfulness of response changes in multistakeholder modified-Delphi panels.
Sep 21, 2022
Report
Securing U.S. Elections
Election systems across U.S. states and jurisdictions are diverse in terms of governance and technology. How can state and local officials effectively assess and prioritize cybersecurity risk in the systems they oversee?
Aug 16, 2022
Journal Article
Improving Mental Health Guardianship: From Prevention to Treatment
The authors sought to identify the most promising strategies for improving the mental health guardianship process in Los Angeles County for adults with mental illness who are gravely disabled.
Dec 7, 2021
Report
Engaging multi-disciplinary practitioners in a complex field of social policy: A methodological discussion paper
This paper shares lessons learnt from engaging multi-disciplinary practitioners in a complex field of social policy in a consensus building exercise using an adapted Delphi-method. It is written for other organisations or researchers considering a similar approach.
Oct 21, 2021
Journal Article
Consensus-based Approach to Managing Opioids, Including Opioid Misuse and Opioid Use Disorder, in Patients with Serious Illness: Protocol for a Modified Delphi Process
Using a modified Delphi approach, we created seven patient cases that capture important management challenges in individuals with serious illness prescribed opioid therapy.
Sep 22, 2021
Journal Article
Informing the Development of a Standardized Clinical Definition of Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome: Protocol for a Modified-Delphi Expert Panel
The goal of this paper is to describe a protocol for a systematic expert panel process to inform the development of a clinical definition of neonatal abstinence syndrome.
Jul 23, 2021
Report
Online Dispute Resolution: Perspectives to Support Successful Implementation and Outcomes in Court Proceedings
Online dispute resolution provides a forum for the resolution of court matters that was especially important during the COVID-19 pandemic. A panel of experts identified strategies to improve access to justice using these platforms.
May 14, 2021
Report
Informing the Development of Standardized Clinical Definitions of Neonatal Abstinence Syndrome and Neonatal Opioid Withdrawal Syndrome: Results of Two Modified-Delphi Expert Panels
The authors describe the results of two modified-Delphi expert panels used to inform the work of a federal steering committee on the development of clinical definitions of neonatal abstinence syndrome and neonatal opioid withdrawal syndrome.
May 3, 2021
Journal Article
Online Modified-Delphi: A Potential Method for Continuous Patient Engagement Across Stages of Clinical Practice Guideline Development
In this Perspective, we make the case for, and provide an approach to, using online Delphi approaches--particularly the online modified-Delphi--for engaging a panel of patients continuously throughout all stages of CPG development.
Mar 31, 2021
Journal Article
Priority-Setting to Address the Geriatric Pharmacoparadox for Pain Management: A Nursing Home Stakeholder Delphi Study
Our objective was to explore the extent of consensus among expert stakeholders regarding what analgesic issues should be prioritized for comparative-effectiveness studies of beneficial and adverse effects of analgesic regimens in nursing home residents.
Feb 25, 2021
Report
Measures and Methodology for International Comparisons of Health Care System Performance: Final Report
RAND researchers worked with 15 experts in quality measurement, clinical care, and health economics to generate potential measure constructs that could improve the U.S. ability to learn from international comparisons of health system performance.
Feb 24, 2021
Journal Article
ADAPT Study: Adaptation of Evidence-Informed Complex Population Health Interventions for Implementation And/Or Re-Evaluation in New Contexts: Protocol for a Delphi Consensus Exercise to Develop Guidance
A Delphi consensus exercise to gather expert opinion on the adaptation, implementation and re-evaluation of complex population health interventions in new contexts.
Jan 22, 2021
Journal Article
Nature and Predictors of Response Changes in Modified-Delphi Panels
This article describes the extent and direction of response changes between modified-Delphi rounds and identifies factors that affect participants' response changes.
Jan 7, 2021
Journal Article
Response Changes in Delphi Processes: Why Is It Important to Provide High-Quality Feedback to Delphi Participants?
Participants in Delphi studies change some of their responses after group feedback and discussion. The results support previous findings that suggest that even modest changes between Delphi rounds may affect the final study findings.
Sep 24, 2020
Blog
How Accurate Were Predictions for the Future?
Anticipating the risks and opportunities posed by all kinds of change is a RAND specialty. In 1964, using RAND's now-famous Delphi method, experts pondered topics like medical advancements, space, artificial intelligence, and controlling the weather.
Jul 14, 2020
Journal Article
Patient and Caregiver Perspectives on Guideline Adherence: The Case of Endocrine and Bone Health Recommendations for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy
The purpose of this study is to explore factors that are likely to affect patient/caregiver adherence to endocrine and bone health recommendations for Duchenne Muscular Dystrophy (DMD).
Feb 14, 2020
Journal Article
Eight Priorities for Improving Primary Care Access Management in Healthcare Organizations: Results of a Modified Delphi Stakeholder Panel
The panel achieved consensus on definitions of optimal access and access management, on eight urgent and important priorities for guiding access management improvement, and on 1–3 recommendations per priority. Each recommendation is supported by referenced, panel-approved suggestions for implementation.
Feb 12, 2020
Brochure
Effecting Change, Improving Health
The RAND Corporation is dedicated to transforming the wellbeing of all people by improving health care systems in the United States and abroad.
Feb 7, 2020

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RAND Topic:
Delphi Method

Topic Synonyms:
Delphi Technique

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Dmitry Khodyakov

Codirector, Center for Qualitative and Mixed Methods

Dmitry Khodyakov is a senior sociologist at the RAND Corporation, a codirector of the RAND Center for Qualitative and Mixed Methods, and a professor at the RAND Pardee Graduate School. His research focuses on methods of expert elicitation and stakeholder engagement, Medicare Advantage,…
Dulani Woods

Codirector, Center for Scalable Computing and Analysis

Dulani Woods is a data scientist at the RAND Corporation and codirector of the RAND Center for Scalable Computing and Analysis. He is adept at data acquisition, transformation, visualization, modeling, simulation, optimization, and other methods.

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