Michael D. Hurd

Director, RAND Center for the Study of Aging; Senior Principal Researcher

Santa Monica Office

Education

Ph.D. in economics, University of California, Berkeley; M.S. in statistics, University of California, Berkeley; B.S. in electrical engineering, University of Utah

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Michael Hurd is a senior principal researcher at the RAND Corporation, where he directs the RAND Center for the Study of Aging. His research interests cover a wide range of topics in the economics of aging including: the structure of private pensions and Social Security and their effects on retirement decisions; the economic status of the elderly; the determinants of consumption and saving; the use of health care services; methods of assessing uncertainty in a population; bracketing and anchoring effects in the elicitation of economic information; and the relationship between socioeconomic status and mortality. His most recent research focuses on the monetary costs of dementia, and the costs of long-term care. Hurd has an M.S. in statistics and a Ph.D. in economics from the University of California, Berkeley.

Research Focus

Recent Projects

RAND Center for the Study of Aging
Health and Economic Status in Older Populations
Health and Retirement Study
Dementia Prevalence over Time: Proximate Causes and Consequences
The Value of Long Term Care Insurance to Married and Single Persons

Selected Publications

Hurd, M. D., P. Martorell and K. Langa, "Future Monetary Costs of Dementia in the United States Under Alternative Dementia Prevalence Scenarios.," Journal of Population Ageing, 1(12), 2015

Hurd, Michael; Rohwedder, Susann, "Heterogeneity in Spending Change at Retirement," Journal of the Economics of Aging, (1-2), 2013

Hurd, M., P. Martorell, A. Delavande, K. J. Mullen and K. M. Langa, "Monetary Costs of Dementia in the United States," New England Journal of Medicine, 368(14), 2013

Hurd, M., P. C. Michaud and S. Rohwedder, "The Displacement Effect of Public Pensions on the Accumulation of Financial Assets," Fiscal Studies, 33(1), 2012

Hurd, Michael, "Inter-vivos Giving by Older People in the United States: Who Received Financial Gifts from the Childless," Ageing and Society, 29, 2009

Hurd, Michael; Rohwedder, Susann, "Methodological Innovations in Collecting Spending Data: The HRS Consumption and Activities Mail Survey," Fiscal Studies, 30(3/4), 2009

Hurd, Michael, "Subjective Probabilities in Household Surveys," Annual Review of Economics, 1, 2009

Hurd, M., Hudomiet, P. & Rohwedder, S. , "The Relationship Between Lifetime Out-of-Pocket Medical Expenditures, Dementia, and Socioeconomic Status in the U.S.," The Journal of the Economics of Aging (forthcoming)

Honors & Awards

Fulvio Guerrini Lecture, University of Turin
The Johann Heinrich Jung-Stilling Lecture, NAR Colloquium, University of Heidelberg

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: WAMU, The Diane Rehm Show

Commentary

Living Longer, Working Longer
When people live longer, the costs of Social Security and Medicare increase and threaten the sustainability of these programs. Households also worry about how to finance more retirement years. But people are working longer, and if they continue to do so, they will reduce some of the problems.
Aug 25, 2016 The RAND Blog
The Cost of Dementia: Who Will Pay?
It is time for the government in partnership with industry to return to the drawing board to craft a plan that will provide protection for the more than 9 million people who will need care for dementia by 2040, writes Michael D. Hurd.
May 1, 2013 The Health Care Blog

Publications

Draft
The Age Profile of Life-Satisfaction After Age 65 in the U.S.
Examines the age profile of life satisfaction of the U.S. population age 65 and older in the Health and Retirement Study to corroborate the view of increasing life satisfaction at older ages based on cross-sectional data.
Nov 11, 2020
Journal Article
The Effects of Job Characteristics on Retirement
We present results from a survey fielded in the RAND American Life Panel. The survey queried older workers about their current,desired, and expected job characteristics, and about how certain characteristics would affect their retirement decisions.
Sep 29, 2020
Journal Article
The Effect of Housing Wealth Losses on Spending in the Great Recession
This article represents the first U.S. study employing exclusively household-level longitudinal data spanning the Great Recession to estimate the response of household spending to negative wealth shocks induced by the sharp declines in house prices.
Sep 20, 2019
Journal Article
The Relationship Between Lifetime Out-of-Pocket Medical Expenditures, Dementia, and Socioeconomic Status in the U.S.
This paper estimates cumulative lifetime medical expenditures that can be attributed to the onset of dementia using a nationally representative longitudinal survey from the U.S., the Health and Retirement Study.
Dec 18, 2018
Draft
Measuring Probability Numeracy
Explores different batteries of questions to measure levels of probability numeracy, the ability of individuals to think in probabilistic terms and use probabilities effectively in everyday life.
Sep 25, 2018
Journal Article
Dementia Prevalence in the United States in 2000 and 2012: Estimates Based on a Nationally Representative Study
The prevalence of dementia in the U.S. among those 65 or older decreased between 2000 and 2012, although less rapidly than reported in other studies.
Apr 27, 2018
Journal Article
Does Home Production Replace Consumption Spending? Evidence from Shocks in Housing Wealth in the Great Recession
This paper sheds new light on the importance of home production in welfare analyses by focusing on the elasticity of substitution estimated over the retired population, thus holding constant non-work time, but also on the share of spending that is potentially substitutable.
2018
Journal Article
High-frequency Internet Survey of a Probability Sample of Older Singaporeans: The Singapore Life Panel®
We detail the methodology by which the Singapore Life Panel was constructed using a population-representative sampling frame from the Singapore Department of Statistics.
2018
Journal Article
Distribution of Lifetime Nursing Home Use and of Out-of-Pocket Spending
By following individuals over many years as they progress to advanced old age, we estimated how many days individuals will spend in nursing homes and how much they will spend out-of-pocket.
Aug 29, 2017
Journal Article
Personality and Employment Transitions at Older Ages: Direct and Indirect Effects Through Non-Monetary Job Characteristics
We assess the extent to which personality traits are directly associated with labor force transitions at older ages and moderate the effect of non-monetary job characteristics on retirement decisions.
Aug 18, 2017
Journal Article
Individual Survival Curves Comparing Subjective and Observed Mortality Risks
Data on Health and Retirement study respondents' expected life span and actual mortality shows that some demographic groups tend to be overly pessimistic about how long they'll live, which could lead to under-saving for retirement.
2017
Draft
Improved Wealth Measures in the Health and Retirement Study: Asset Reconciliation and Cross-Wave Imputation
Presents improved wealth measures for the Health and Retirement Study (HRS), which aim to reduce the effect of observation error on wealth levels and changes in wealth.
Apr 27, 2016
Journal Article
The Effect of Job Loss on Health: Evidence from Biomarkers
Our results suggest that layoffs and business closure have truly distinct effects on health.
2016
Draft
The Impact of Employment Transitions on Subjective Well-Being: Evidence from the Great Recession and Its Aftermath
Using data from the Financial Crisis Surveys collected in the American Life Panel, this study estimates the causal effect of work transitions, in particular unemployment and reemployment, on subjective well-being between November 2009 and April 2013 in the US.
Nov 17, 2015
Journal Article
US Prevalence and Predictors of Informal Caregiving for Dementia
This study looks at the prevalence and predicators in informal care for cognitive impairment or probable dementia in the U.S.
Oct 20, 2015
Draft
The Effect of Housing and Stock Wealth Losses on Spending in the Great Recession
Uses panel data at the household level on a complete inventory of household spending and assets to estimate the spending response to the sharp and largely unexpected declines in house and stock market prices that occurred in the Great Recession.
Jun 15, 2015
Journal Article
Disease Incidence and Mortality Among Older Americans and Europeans
Overall, the origin of the higher prevalence of health conditions in the United States results from a higher incidence of diseases and prevalence earlier in the life course.
2015
Journal Article
Future Monetary Costs of Dementia in the United States Under Alternative Dementia Prevalence Scenarios
In the present paper we modified the age-specific prevalence rates according to two scenarios.
2015
Journal Article
Subjective Mortality Risk and Bequests
The results of this paper show a strong empirical relevance of subjective survival curves, indicating the importance to take into consideration of this dimension of individual heterogeneity in life cycle models.
2015
Research Brief
More Americans May Be Adequately Prepared for Retirement Than Previously Thought
Because spending in retirement tends to decline with age, a new study finds that 71 percent of Americans are adequately prepared for retirement: 81 percent of married persons and 57 percent of single persons. Women are less prepared than men.
Jul 31, 2014
Infographic
Dementia's Mounting Toll on the U.S. Economy
Dementia costs Americans hundreds of billions of dollars per year, and the annual cost could top half a trillion by 2040 due to the 'graying' of the U.S. population.
May 27, 2014
Testimony
The Monetary Costs of Dementia in the United States
Testimony presented before the Senate Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Labor, Health and Human Services, Education, and Related Agencies on February 26, 2014.
Feb 26, 2014
Draft
How Do Management Fees Affect Retirement Wealth Under Mexico’s Personal Retirement Accounts System?
Examines changes in retirement wealth resulting from Mexico's transformation from its pay-as-you-go social-security system to a fully funded system with personal retirement accounts, including management fees.
Jan 29, 2014
Journal Article
How Do Management Fees Affect Retirement Wealth Under Mexico's Personal Retirement Accounts System?
In 1997, Mexico transformed its pay-as-you-go social security system to a fully funded system with personal retirement accounts, including management fees. This article examines changes in retirement wealth resulting from this new system.
2014
Journal Article
Heterogeneity in Spending Change at Retirement
The simple one-good model of life-cycle consumption requires that consumption be continuous over retirement; yet prior research based on partial measures of consumption or on synthetic panels indicates that spending drops at retirement, a result that has been called the retirement-consumption puzzle.
Nov 1, 2013
Testimony
The Monetary Costs of Dementia in the United States: Addendum
Document submitted on July 12, 2013 as an addendum to testimony presented before the Senate Special Committee on Aging on April 24, 2013.
Jul 12, 2013
Testimony
The Monetary Costs of Dementia in the United States
Testimony presented before the Senate Special Committee on Aging on April 24, 2013.
Apr 24, 2013
Journal Article
Monetary Costs of Dementia in the United States
Dementia represents a substantial financial burden on society, one that is similar to the financial burden of heart disease and cancer.
Apr 1, 2013
Draft
Measuring Total Household Spending in a Monthly Internet Survey: Evidence from the American Life Panel
Reports on the outcomes of a monthly Internet survey designed to measure total household spending as the aggregate of about 40 spending components.
Jul 20, 2012
Draft
Stock Price Expectations and Stock Trading
Analyzes the relationships between actual stock market price changes and the subjective probability of price changes, and between the subjective probability of price changes and the likelihood of engaging in stock trading.
Jul 20, 2012
Journal Article
Economic Preparation for Retirement
The overall goal of this chapter is to assess economic preparation for retirement in a way that addresses many of the deficiencies of the income replacement rate concept.
2012
Draft
Intervivos Giving Over the Lifecycle
Describes financial transfers made by parents to children and their correlation with donor characteristics such as age, and looks at how transfers reflect changes in marital status, economic status, and health.
Oct 11, 2011
Draft
Economic Preparation for Retirement
Defines and estimates measures of economic preparation for retirement based on an inventory of economic resources while taking into account the risk of living to advanced old age and the risk of high out-of-pocket spending for health care services.
Sep 27, 2011
Draft
Effects of the Financial Crisis and Great Recession on American Households
Presents evidence from high-frequency data collections dedicated to tracking the effects of the financial crisis and great recession on American households.
Nov 23, 2010
Journal Article
Inter-vivos Giving By Older People in the United States: Who Received Financial Gifts from the Childless?
Using data for 1996 to 2004 from the United States Health and Retirement Study, this article examines the differences between parents and childless older people in financial transfers to people other than their children.
2009
Draft
Methodological Innovations in Collecting Spending Data: The HRS Consumption and Activities Mail Survey
Examines issues that arise designing a survey module to collect spending data with strict time constraints.
Dec 17, 2008
Draft
Using International Micro Data to Learn about Individuals' Responses to Changes in Social Insurance
Examines the scope of cross-country variation in institutions related to social insurance.
Nov 24, 2008
Draft
The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Actual Spending Change in Panel Data
Examines panel data on total spending, nondurable spending, and food spending to explain patterns of decline in consumption for U.S. and British households after their members retire.
Apr 24, 2008
Research Brief
Modeling the Health and Medical Care Spending of the Future Elderly
This research brief summarizes studies showing that medical innovations will improve health and extend life but will likely increase Medicare spending; eliminating obesity and better prevention could save Medicare money and improve health.
Mar 9, 2008
Journal Article
Prevalence of Cognitive Impairment Without Dementia in the United States
Presents data to support implementation of Functional Family Therapy, an evidence-based family prevention and intervention program for adolescents with conduct disorder or oppositional defiant disorder, in family and child mental health services.
2008
Journal Article
A Test for Anchoring and Yea-Saying in Experimental Consumption Data
Analyzes experimental survey data, with a random split into respondents who get an open-ended question and those immediately directed to unfolding brackets. Once yea-saying is taken into account, no evidence of anchoring at the entry point is found.
2008
Research Brief
Obesity and Disability: The Shape of Things to Come
This research brief summarizes studies that found that individuals who are obese face greater challenges in terms of disability and chronic disease than do their non-obese counterparts.
Apr 8, 2007
Draft
Time-Use in the Older Population: Variation by Socio-economic Status and Health
Presents data from the Health and Retirement Study, representative of the U.S. population age 51 and over, on time-use: paid work, housework, leisure, personal care, sleep, exercise, managing finances, time at computer, socializing, and volunteering.
Mar 21, 2007
Draft
Economic Well-Being at Older Ages: Income- and Consumption-Based Poverty Measures in the HRS
Finds that the poverty rate based on consumption is lower than the income-based poverty rate, particularly for older single persons such as widows. The explanation for the difference is the ability to consume out of wealth.
Jan 11, 2007
Journal Article
Prevalence of Dementia in the United States: The Aging,demographics, and Memory Study
The authors estimate the prevalence of Alzheimer's disease (AD) and other dementias in the USA using a nationally representative sample.
2007
Draft
Some Answers to The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle
Examines models of economic behavior to explain patterns of decline in consumption for U.S. and British households after their members retire.
Feb 6, 2006
Research Brief
Future Health and Medical Care Spending of the Elderly: Implications for Medicare
A team of economists and physicians explored how changes in medical technology, disease, and disability would affect health care spending for the population age 65 and older.
Oct 10, 2005
Draft
The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Anticipated and Actual Declines in Spending at Retirement
Apr 4, 2005
Journal Article
Consequences of Health Trends and Medical Innovation for the Future Elderly
Recent innovations in biomedicine seem poised to revolutionize medical practice.
2005
Draft
Models for Anchoring and Acquiescence Bias in Consumption Data
In this paper, several models for anchoring and acquiescence are estimated using experimental data on household consumption from the AHEAD 1995 survey.
Dec 21, 2004
Draft
A Test for Anchoring and Yea-Saying in Experimental Consumption Data
In this paper, some existing models for anchoring are considered and their implications are analyzed for differences between the true distribution of the variable of interest and the distribution obtained if anchoring according to a given model is present.
Dec 21, 2004
Report
Health Status and Medical Treatment of the Future Elderly: Final Report
This report describes the Future Elderly Model, a demographic-economic model of health spending projections developed by RAND Health to help the Centers for Medicare and Medicaid Services' more accurately predict future health care costs.
Dec 12, 2004
Draft
Increases in Wealth among the Elderly in the Early 1990s: How Much is Due to Survey Design?
Nov 23, 2004
Journal Article
Disability Forecasts and Future Medicare Costs
The traditional focus of disability research has been on the elderly, with good reason.
2004
Draft
The Effects of Subjective Survival on Retirements and Social Security Claiming
Mortality risk influences retirement and the desire to annuitize wealth. RAND finds that those with very low subjective probabilities of survival retire and claim earlier than those with higher probabilities, but that the effects are not large.
2003
Report
Enhancing the Quality of Data on Income: Recent Innovations from the HRS
This paper evaluates two survey innovations introduced in the HRS that aimed to improve income measurement.
2003
Draft
Expected Bequests and Their Distribution
Based on a population-representative sample of actual bequests, this report estimates that households in the 70-74 age band will bequeath just 39 percent of their wealth, consuming the rest before they die.
2003
Journal Article
Forecasting the Nursing Home Population
In recent years, the rate of institutionalization among the elderly has been falling.
2003
Draft
Health, Wealth, and the Role of Institutions
This report develops a theoretical model to relate changes in health status to income, and changes in income to health status. The authors show that income or wealth inequality is closely connected to health inequality.
2003
Draft
Real Wealth Changes from 1982 to 1991 Among the Newly Retired
This paper studies rates of saving and consumption among the recently retired during the 1980s. It also documents outlays associated with the death of a spouse to find the causes of wealth loss at widowhood.
2003
Draft
The Retirement-Consumption Puzzle: Anticipated and Actual Declines in Spending at Retirement
The authors find that data on anticipated consumption changes at retirement and on realized consumption changes following retirement show that reductions in consumption at retirement are fully anticipated.
2003
Report
Anticipated and Actual Bequests
The authors studied the role of inheritances and bequests in shaping household decisions of wealth accumulation using new methods of measuring bequests.
2002
Draft
Are Bequests Accidental or Desired?
After discussing the important for public policy of the magnitude of any bequest motive, the author attempts to specify how a bequest motive should affect actual bequest outcomes.
2002
Draft
The Effects of Large Capital Gains on Work and Consumption: Evidence from Four Waves of the HRS
The authors examine how the large increase in wealth in the mid- to late 1990s affected retirement and consumption behavior. Specifically, the authors investigate how gains from stock holdings were spent.
2001
Draft
Anchoring and Acquiescence Bias in Measuring Assets in Household Surveys
This report presents evidence of anchoring and acquiescence bias in the Health and Retirement Study. These biases are prevalent and significant enough that they should be taken into account when estimating population distribution of assets.
1999
Draft
Mortality Risk and Consumption by Couples
This report analyzes how variations in mortality risk, economic wealth, and taste parameters explain asset consumption by couples.
1999
Draft
An Analysis of the Choice to Cash Out Pension Rights at Job Change or Retirement
If private pension plan funds are consumed before or immediately after retirement, old-age income may decline, and public policy may require adjustment. Using new data, RAND finds that the issue is far less severe than suggested by prior research.
1998