The Islamic State's Disposable Army
To leaders of the Islamic State group, murder of its own and collective suicide are keys to its defense strategy. The group targets malcontents and the most suggestible, knowing they are desperate to belong to something and willing to die for it.
Jun 20, 2017 U.S. News & World Report
Can We Predict Where Terrorists Will Strike Next?
Terrorism has escalated horizontally, not vertically. Instead of weapons of mass destruction, there has been a proliferation of low-level attacks. The trick will be to predict and prevent new plots.
Jun 19, 2017 Newsweek
When the Caliphate Falls, What Then for U.S. Policy?
The eventual fall of ISIS-controlled Raqqa will necessitate a review of U.S. policy in Syria. Policymakers can start thinking about the questions it will raise now.
Jun 16, 2017 Defense One
Why Aren't There More Terrorist Attacks Like the One in London?
The number of attacks like the one on London Bridge are low because jihadist ideologies have failed to gain traction in most Muslim countries, and it's difficult to recruit people remotely. Supporting violence and participating in it are two different things.
Jun 7, 2017 Fortune
London Bridge Attack: The Latest Example of 'Pure Terror'
Terrorists can attack anything, anywhere, any time. Preventing all pure terrorism is impossible, but seeking ways to divert vulnerable people from the terror path as Prime Minister May has discussed is a worthy step in that direction.
Jun 5, 2017 The Hill
Why Would Assad Use Chemical Weapons?
The use of chemical weapons today provokes international condemnation, if not always action. Those who order their deployment risk being charged with war crimes. So why would Syria's President Bashar Assad use them?
Apr 14, 2017 U.S. News & World Report
Taking the 'Terror' Out of Terrorism Requires Outsmarting Fear
Terrorism aims to create terror. Building an effective counterterror strategy could help society understand how terrorism works, then work together toward a psychologically more resilient and less vulnerable mindset.
Mar 16, 2017 United Press International
For U.S., Many Options but No Clear Path in Middle East
The struggle against jihadist terrorism has a long way to go. All courses of action come with risks, but are not mutually exclusive. The U.S. could escalate the fight, work with state partners in the Middle East, or withdraw from the region.
Mar 6, 2017 The Hill
Why a Travel Restriction Won't Stop Terrorism at Home
It's not unreasonable to seek a review of immigration, and refugee-vetting procedures make sense. But America's jihadist terrorists are not imported from abroad. They are mostly homegrown.
Feb 10, 2017 The Hill
Dealing with a Revanchist Russia
The deployment of additional U.S. forces and other NATO units to Poland, Norway, the Baltics, and other states symbolically reinforces the West's commitment to the alliance. But countering Russia's influence will require a fundamental reformulation of EU and U.S. political strategy.
Feb 8, 2017 The National Interest
When Is a Terrorist Really a Terrorist?
Countering mass violence demands a distinction between attackers who are truly inspired by jihadism and those with lesser links. The latter includes people whose mental states and violent tendencies preexist their exposure to the ideology.
Jan 27, 2017 The Hill
What ISIS Leaves Behind in Mosul Will Reveal a Lot
The capture of Mosul, Iraq, may produce a potential trove of information about how ISIS organized itself to run a large city. Collecting, analyzing, and disseminating this material will be a major effort, one of the most important as the city is liberated.
Nov 18, 2016 The Hill
What the Battles of Mosul and Aleppo Tell Us About Their Countries' Futures
The battle of Mosul is not just about defeating ISIS. It is about restoring Mosul to the multi-ethnic city it once was. The Syrian government's style of warfare in Aleppo, however, accepts that Syria will remain a divided country.
Nov 14, 2016 The Hill
U.S. More Able Than Ever to Combat Terrorism
Acts of pure terrorism are truly arbitrary and extremely difficult to protect against, but they are rare. Improved domestic counterterrorist efforts have uncovered and interrupted close to 90 percent of jihadist terrorist plots in the U.S. since 9/11.
Sep 26, 2016 Boston Herald
Fifteen Years on, Where Are We in the 'War on Terror'?
Much has changed since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Counterterrorism efforts have made progress, and Americans are safer. But it's unclear how much further the fight against terrorism has to go.
Sep 7, 2016 CTC Sentinel
President Obama's Controversial Legacy as Counterterrorism-in-Chief
There were no attacks like 9/11 during Obama's eight years in office. But there were plenty of terrorist adversaries. While he will be judged in part for his domestic achievements, Obama's counterterrorism choices are a major part of his legacy.
Aug 22, 2016 The Mark News
A Persistent and Resilient Adversary: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula
The history of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula catalogues every dimension of frustration in combatting terrorism. But is it possible that the United States and its Gulf allies are finally getting the measure of AQAP?
Aug 22, 2016 The Cipher Brief
What's in a Name? The Rebranding of the Nusra Front
Jabhat al-Nusra, which recently announced that it was severing its affiliation with al Qaeda, is now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. This means less than meets the eye, but it does say something about the local atmosphere in Syria.
Aug 8, 2016 The Hill
Is the Surge in Terrorist Attacks Coincidence or Coordinated Campaign?
Whatever the investigations of recent terrorist attacks reveal, the facts may be portrayed (or ignored) to fit narratives written even before the blood has dried.
Jul 11, 2016 The Hill
The Response to Every Terrorist Attack Cannot Be Another Checkpoint
The Istanbul attack will renew calls to extend existing security screening at the front doors of terminals. But checkpoints create bottlenecks and queues of people waiting to get through them, which then become an easy target.
Jul 1, 2016 The Hill
Cyberterrorism and the Role of Silicon Valley
As national security and war are being redefined for the digital age, Silicon Valley will need to be on the front line of counterterrorism. Its inventors and entrepreneurs are driving the information revolution, and they must figure out how to protect vital systems against malevolent intrusions.
Jun 13, 2016 TechCrunch
Terrorism Shouldn't Affect Travel Plans
Evidence suggests that the threat of terrorism need not affect individuals' behavior and travel decisions, not even in the wake of attacks such as those in Brussels and Paris.
May 21, 2016 USA Today
Anti-Muslim Demonstrations Don't Make Us Safer
Anti-Muslim demonstrations complicate efforts to combat terrorism. They also exaggerate the threat, perpetuate overblown fears, and punish innocents who may be on America's side.
May 12, 2016 Dallas Morning News
In the Event of the Islamic State's Untimely Demise...
If they haven't already, the Islamic State's leaders will soon formulate a contingency strategy, a Plan B that the West will then be forced to contend with.
May 11, 2016 Foreign Policy
Five Years After the Death of Osama bin Laden, Is the World Safer?
What effect did killing bin Laden have on al Qaeda's ability to pursue its jihadist goals? Does high-value targeting contribute to counterterrorist strategy more broadly? Does killing terrorist leaders work?
May 2, 2016 The Cipher Brief
Europe's Terror Fight Far from Over
Salah Abdeslam is suspected of being the logistics man for the November terrorist attacks in Paris. His capture may provide authorities with a window into the ISIS network in Europe.
Mar 22, 2016 CNN
How Real Is the ISIS Threat?
In less than two years, ISIS's black flag has flown in a dozen countries outside of Syria and Iraq. And terrorist attacks have been carried out in its name in the West, including in America. But how serious is the threat that ISIS's brand of jihad will spread on a global scale?
Mar 18, 2016 The Cipher Brief
Could ISIS and Al Qaeda, Two Giants of Jihad, Unite?
It could take a change in leadership in both Al Qaeda and ISIS and perhaps some compromises on mission and strategy, but there are enough points of confluence to make a united jihadist front a realistic and frightening possibility.
Mar 14, 2016 Fox News Channel
A Symbolic Purging of the NYPD Radicalization Report
The NYPD's purging of its 2007 report on radicalization may give some satisfaction by symbolically breaking the connection between the current mayoral administration and the NYPD's previous intelligence and investigative efforts. But its significance seems questionable.
Jan 26, 2016 The Hill
Oregon Standoff Shouldn't Have an Anti-Terrorism Twist
Dwight and Steven Hammond were charged under a law enacted to fight terrorism, not rein in wayward ranchers. Anti-terrorist laws should not be used to strengthen prosecutors' hands in nonterrorist prosecutions—it makes national security needs look like an instrument of oppression.
Jan 13, 2016 Slate
How Terrorist Threats Against LA and New York Schools Exposed Weaknesses
The handling of terrorist threats on Los Angeles and New York City schools calls into question the ability of national and local government to coordinate a terrorist crisis involving two or more cities.
Dec 23, 2015 The Hill
How Terrorists Get Here
Of 134 jihadist-inspired terrorists who have carried out or plotted attacks in the United States since 9/11, 96 were U.S. citizens and 19 others were legal permanent residents. While some level of comfort may be drawn from the fact that terrorists are not pouring into the country, there is no basis for complacency.
Dec 18, 2015 The Hill
If Terrorism Is Homegrown, a Visa Overhaul Won't Keep Americans Safe
Despite being the focus of renewed scrutiny, only three people involved in terrorist incidents have entered the United States via the visa waiver program in the past quarter-century.
Dec 7, 2015 The Guardian
Why the Paris Terrorists Couldn't Be Stopped
Terrorists almost always have the advantage. Theoretically, they can attack anything, anywhere, anytime. And governments cannot protect everything, everywhere, all the time.
Nov 16, 2015 Slate
Big Questions Facing France
In Paris, the heavily armed terrorists reportedly struck at six locations, including restaurants, a football stadium, and a theater during a rock concert. It seems clear the killers must have had some confederates. That would mean some terrorists are still at large.
Nov 14, 2015 CNN
Passing Judgment on Russian Plane Crash Before the Facts Are In
A bright flash and catastrophic event suggest an explosion, but do not necessarily exclude the possibility of a mechanical failure. This would not, in fact, be the first time evidence pointed to a terrorist attack when none existed.
Nov 12, 2015 The Hill
Five Options for the U.S. in Syria
How should the United States respond to Russia's intervention in Syria's civil war? Here are five options intended to encourage rational thinking based upon realistic presumptions, not media or campaign-driven hype.
Oct 21, 2015 The Hill
Will Today's Refugees Become the 'New Palestinians'?
The conflicts in Syria and Iraq have generated the greatest volume of refugees since World War II. If the international community is to avoid seeing the emergence of a population of new Palestinians lasting decades into the future, it will have to craft a more coherent approach.
Oct 9, 2015 The Hill
Any Review of Syria and Iraq Strategy Needs Realistic Reappraisal
Since the American-led coalition bombing campaign began a year ago, ISIS has suffered some military setbacks and lost territory, but it also has been able to capture several more key cities in Iraq and Syria, and, despite the bombing, continues to attract a large number of foreign fighters.
Sep 28, 2015 The Hill
The Strategic Value of Terrorism
While terrorists and criminals joining forces is certainly a scary thought, it's nothing new and not something that works as simply in practice as it does on a white board. Still, it's a threat worth watching.
Aug 31, 2015 The Cipher Brief
The 1970s and the Birth of Contemporary Terrorism
While terrorism worldwide has increased over the past four decades — and the threat of terrorism continues to dominate Americans' fears — the 14 years since 9/11 have been tranquil on the home front compared to the violent 1970s.
Jul 30, 2015 The Hill
After Attacks in France, Tunisia, and Kuwait, West Must Do More to Fight Surge of Terrorist Attacks
The terrorist attacks in France, Tunisia, and Kuwait are just the latest warnings that ISIS is turning its campaign into a global enterprise.
Jun 29, 2015 New York Daily News
TSA Flunked Its Security Test Big Time — Now What?
We have to accept that humans, no matter how well-trained they are or how dedicated they are to their mission, are just not very good at maintaining laser-like focus while performing repetitive tasks. That does not mean airport security can ever be completely given over to machines.
Jun 15, 2015 The Hill
Should There Be a Hostage Czar?
In light of recent kidnappings ending in the deaths of American hostages, appointing a 'hostage czar' may seem like a sound idea. But the creation of a high-profile position for hostage issues raises policy questions and comes with operational risks.
Jun 1, 2015 The Hill
The Death of Hostages and High-Flying Illusions
Risk is unavoidable in fighting war or terrorism. Soldiers are sometimes felled by friendly fire, and civilians ostensibly on the sidelines become accidental targets. It is unrealistic to believe that such tragedies can always be prevented. Risks can be reduced but never entirely eliminated.
May 4, 2015 The Hill
Inside the Terrorist Factory
As the civil wars in Syria and Iraq continue, they sharpen the sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shias, threatening the stability of the region and attracting a steady flow of foreign volunteers, effectively turning Syria and Iraq into a terrorist factory.
Mar 30, 2015 The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
The Allure of ISIS for Young Recruits
Poverty and oppression may explain why people in some countries embrace violent extremism, but it does not account for the flow of Western volunteers or the dreamy allure of fighting for a faraway cause. Biographies of those who have reached out to participate in jihad suggest a variety of motives, including alienation, personal crises, dissatisfaction with empty spiritual lives, and adolescent rebellion.
Mar 20, 2015 The Hill
Different Countries, Different Ways of Countering Terrorism
France and the United States follow different approaches in dealing with terrorist suspects. This divergence reflects differences in the threat, historical experience, law, available resources, and public attitudes. France faces a more serious terrorist threat than the U.S. does.
Mar 2, 2015 The Hill
Predicting the 'Dangerousness' of Potential Terrorists
Predicting 'dangerousness' of potential terrorists is a hit-and-miss endeavor. Unless someone is waving a gun, it is extremely difficult. Even with direct access to the subject, parole boards, suicide prevention units and even trained clinicians get it wrong.
Mar 2, 2015 The Hill
Attempting to Understand the Paris Attacks
The investigation will eventually fill in some of the gaps in our knowledge of the events leading up to the attacks in Paris, but some questions will remain unanswered. Embedded in the unknowns are some of the chronic dilemmas faced by counterterrorist authorities everywhere.
Feb 26, 2015 The Hill
ISIS's Calculated Barbarity
ISIS's decision to murder its Jordanian hostage by burning him alive may turn out to be a strategic miscalculation, but it is not madness. Through self-selection, continued fighting, and the exaltation of unlimited violence, ISIS has created a cult whose members command and revel in displays of ever-increasing cruelty.
Feb 10, 2015 The Hill
Experts React to ISIS's Gruesome Execution of Jordanian Pilot
A grisly video released yesterday by ISIS appears to show Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasaesbeh burned alive in a cage. Why the shift away from beheadings? What does the execution mean for Jordan? What implications will it have for ISIS?
Feb 4, 2015 The RAND Blog
Improving Domestic Security to Combat Today's Terrorist Threats
Today, the U.S. confronts a multilayered terrorist threat and the recent spate of attacks in Europe underscores the necessity for ensuring that intelligence keeps up with it. Intelligence services must continue to prevent terrorist assaults dispatched from abroad, head off new shoe and underwear bombers, intercept individuals returning from jihadist fronts with terrorist intentions, while at the same time uncovering and thwarting homegrown plots.
Jan 30, 2015 The Hill
Eight Lessons from the Charlie Hebdo Attack
Among the lessons to be learned from the attacks in Paris are that terrorism has many audiences, Al-Qaida remains a threat, would-be warriors are unconcerned with the schisms among jihadist camps, Europe has a more serious problem, such an attack could happen in the U.S., and intelligence is crucial.
Jan 23, 2015 Slate
A Grim Choice: The Attempted Rescue of Hostages
Many described the attempt to rescue Luke Somers from al Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen as 'botched,' suggesting it was badly or carelessly planned or executed. 'Desperate' may be more apt. Such measures aren't undertaken without a grim calculus weighing the chances of success against a range of other outcomes, most of which involve the hostages' doom.
Dec 19, 2014 The Hill
When Jihadis Come Marching Home
The existing pool of determined jihadists in America is very small and lacks training and experience, which fighting in Syria and Iraq would provide. Returning jihadi veterans would be more formidable adversaries. Still, the threat appears manageable using current U.S. laws and existing resources.
Nov 19, 2014 The Hill
Is Obama a Modern-Day Quintus Fabius Maximus?
Critics say President Obama dragged his feet on sending more troops to Afghanistan, on addressing the dangers in Libya, on providing support to Syria's rebels and, most recently, on initiating military action against Islamic State. But is that necessarily such a bad thing?
Oct 22, 2014 Los Angeles Times
Air Campaign Against ISIS Is Just Getting Off the Ground
More than 60 countries have joined the coalition against ISIS, with at least 12 participating in the air campaign. Eventually, this will be an impressive armada, but the campaign is still in its first stage, and most of the coalition participants joined the effort only recently.
Oct 17, 2014 The Hill
What Could U.S. Boots on the Ground Do in Iraq and Syria?
Before embracing American boots on the ground as a strategy to fight ISIS, it's essential to be clear about what they're going to do, what they may require, and what risks may be entailed.
Oct 15, 2014 Defense One
What Are ISIS's Options Now?
In domestic debates about what the United States should do to blunt the threat posed by ISIS, Americans often forget the adversary also has options. A determined force, ISIS will counter the bombing campaign.
Oct 10, 2014 The Hill
An Inconvenient War
Congress has not addressed President Obama's plans to take other military steps against ISIS. Some members of Congress do not want to vote on the use of military force until after the upcoming elections. Among these are some who fear their vote could cost them votes.
Sep 25, 2014 The Hill
Why the U.S. Swaps Prisoners but Doesn't Pay Ransom
Reports that the United States refused to pay ransom for journalist James Foley, only weeks before it released Taliban prisoners in exchange for Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, have caused confusion about U.S. policy. On the surface, it may seem inconsistent. Why release prisoners but not pay ransom?
Sep 2, 2014 The Hill
Disrupting Terrorist Safe Havens
Disrupting the terrorist safe havens in Syria and Iraq would require a balanced approach that makes the business of terrorist planning and training difficult without entangling U.S. forces in new conflicts and angering the very populations the United States seeks to assist.
Aug 18, 2014 The Hill
An Evil Wind
The threat of global terrorist enterprises has been enhanced by Western fighters joining al Qaeda offshoots like the Islamic State. With the terrorist threat evolving, the United States has little choice but to evolve with it.
Jul 31, 2014 Slate
TSA's Cellphone Rule Part of Deadly Race
While placing explosives inside a cellphone is plausible, it is almost impossible to do so with iPhones without rendering them non-functional, which is why the TSA is now checking cell phones are actually working.
Jul 29, 2014 CNN
Iraq Makes Strange Bedfellows
In seeking to quell the unrest in Iraq, the United States must balance its own interests with those of a diverse cast of players that includes Iraq, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, an unpredictable and violent jihadist front and others.
Jul 15, 2014 U.S. News & World Report
Further Observations on the Situation in Iraq
It is difficult to see how the United States can favorably affect the situation in Iraq without making a costly and risky investment. But that does not mean doing nothing. An immediate objective is to contain the conflict.
Jul 14, 2014 The Hill
Iraq Observations
Will the Obama administration be blamed for losing Iraq if it does not order military intervention? Or will history judge the president wise for keeping U.S. forces out of war? As Americans debate assisting Iraq, including the possibility of military intervention, here are 10 things to keep in mind.
Jun 19, 2014 The Hill
The Risks of Rescue
As appealing as a successful mission to rescue the 200 school girls held hostage by Boko Haram in Nigeria might appear, the use of U.S. military assets to mount a rescue attempt would be a mistake.
Jun 13, 2014 The Ripon Forum
Nigeria's Inescapable Burden
The historical record suggests that when many hostages are involved, rescues are bloody affairs. Early RAND research on hostage situations showed that of all the ways hostages may be killed—during the initial abduction, trying to escape, murdered by their captors or during the rescue—79 percent died during the rescue.
May 19, 2014 U.S. News & World Report
The Breach of Security at San Jose's Airport Raises Broader Issues
Those charged with security must think in terms of 360-degree security—not only screening passengers coming through the terminal, but also preventing unauthorized access to the aircraft from the air operations side of airport.
May 13, 2014 Mineta Transportation Institute
When Terrorists Kill Terrorists
Battles between rival rebel groups and within terrorist organizations are not uncommon. Terrorists may compete with each other, sometimes in deadly battles, for the control of sources of financing. Some of the internal struggles are about who will lead.
May 5, 2014 The Hill
A Bigger, but Less Unified, al Qaeda
In the long run, al Qaeda might be able to reel in its more unreliable offspring, assert more control, demand their obedience, and call upon their resources to assist in global operations. But without a stronger center, that possibility seems remote.
Apr 25, 2014 The Hill
After Boston, Beware DIY Attacks: Front & Center
Orlando Sentinel editorial writer Darryl E. Owens interviewed Brian Michael Jenkins, senior adviser to the president of RAND. They discussed last year's Boston Marathon bombing and the current threat of terrorist acts in the United States.
Apr 16, 2014 Orlando Sentinel
Discord Among Terrorists
Overall, divisions in Al Qaeda's ranks are good news for the United States. While the split will not end the jihadists' terrorist campaigns, it will preoccupy Al Qaeda's leaders and create uncertainty in its ranks.
Feb 25, 2014 The Mark News
What Might Terrorists Do Next?
No one can predict with any certainty what terrorists might do next. If there is one lesson America learned about counterterrorism on 9/11, it's that the coming attack may look nothing like those that preceded it.
Feb 24, 2014 Insurance Journal
Experts Are Working to Develop Evidence-Based Ways to Measure Anti-Terrorism Efforts
The effects of security measures ought not to be measured solely in terms of prevention. Different types of countermeasures produce different effects, such as deterrence, making it easier for security to intervene during an attempted attack, and providing visible security that reassures the public.
Feb 7, 2014 Inside Science
Fight Today's Terrorist Threat, Not Yesterday's
Counterterrorism is not just about daring raids and drone strikes. It is about the hard work of collecting and sifting through vast amounts of information and managing relationships among organizations that often regard sharing information as an unnatural act.
Feb 7, 2014 U.S. News & World Report
The Secretive Battle for Sochi
Russia seems to be taking prudent steps to make the games the safe and secure display of athleticism and international good fellowship they once were. The outcome hinges on a pair of unknowns: the secret counterterrorism strategies Russian authorities have undertaken and the terrorists’ capacity for creativity and surprise.
Feb 5, 2014 CNN
The Real Homeland Security Issues for 2014
Americans should be able to discuss the terrorist threat and how best to meet it, how much of the country’s precious resources should be devoted to homeland security, and the impact intelligence efforts can have on personal privacy and freedom.
Feb 5, 2014 Slate
The Terrorist Threat to the Sochi Olympics
From the Black September attacks on Israeli athletes in 1972, to the post 9/11 games in Salt Lake City, to the 2012 games in London, security has been a concern at all modern Olympics. Recent terrorist attacks in Russia, though, present particular concern as the world's athletes descend on Sochi.
Jan 31, 2014 The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
Syria's Bloody Stalemate
With little chance of a negotiated end to the fighting, the war in Syria is likely to drag on. And even if somehow the bloodshed were to end relatively soon, the war will leave a legacy of odium and thousands of fighters that will threaten the region and beyond far into the future.
Jan 17, 2014 U.S. News & World Report
Why Did Terrorists Attack Volgograd?
The Volgograd attacks have brought renewed world attention to the unresolved conflict in the turbulent Caucasus. The bombings no doubt have rattled Russian nerves. While Umarov's reputation among extremists will rise, President Putin's reputation as defender of Russia is at stake.
Dec 31, 2013 U.S. News & World Report
Should the United States End Assistance to Syria's Rebels?
The American investment in Syria thus far can be accurately described as timid and minimal. The United States can do more to assist the rebels without directly using American military power or sliding into a strategy of escalation.
Dec 23, 2013 The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
Whither al Qaeda: A 'Tri-alogue' with Brian Michael Jenkins, Seth Jones, and Andrew Liepman
Recent comments by key U.S. lawmakers have again raised the issue of where the United States is in its campaign against al Qaeda. This has left some to wonder if the terrorism threat is increasing and if Americans are not as safe as they were a year or two ago. Three senior RAND analysts offer their take.
Dec 10, 2013 The RAND Blog
Want to Create Problems? Arm the TSA
With its current 47,000 screeners, an armed TSA would become the federal government's largest armed entity outside of the military. In the eyes of many, arming TSA screeners would change the image of the organization from a service aimed at guaranteeing safe air travel to an unwanted imposition of federal authority.
Nov 7, 2013 Los Angeles Times
Airport Violence—Not a New Phenomenon
Shootings at airports are nothing new, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. In fact, they have regularly occurred worldwide in recent years. The motives have included terrorism, crime, and mental illness.
Nov 2, 2013 The RAND Blog
How War on Terrorism Has Evolved
Special operations to capture terrorists are more dangerous than drone strikes, and nimble terrorist adversaries will develop countermeasures to make them even more difficult. But they are politically more acceptable and offer opportunities for intelligence and the visible delivery of justice.
Oct 24, 2013 USA Today
Syria As We Know It Is Gone
Other than as a geographic expression, Syria has ceased to exist, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. With Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah support, Bashar Assad's forces, at the moment, appear to have gained the initiative over a fragmented rebel movement.
Oct 16, 2013 U.S. News & World Report
10 Reasons U.S. Influence Has Fallen in the Middle East
By most assessments, U.S. influence in the Middle East has dramatically declined since the Arab uprisings began in January 2011. Critics have blamed this on inept diplomacy by the current administration, but this is only a partial explanation for America's loss of authority in the region.
Sep 16, 2013 Slate
Limited U.S. Military Strikes Do Not Unseat Dug-in Dictators
Like the measured attacks that may soon strike Syrian targets, America's first military attacks on Serbia, Libya, Iraq, Sudan, and Afghanistan were not aimed at regime change. Their purpose was to retaliate for attacks or coerce changes in policy.
Sep 9, 2013 The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
What's Next for the Muslim Brotherhood?
Some believe the Muslim Brotherhood should stay in the political game, adopting the role of loyal opposition. The Brotherhood would remain a minority party, but it could continue to hold offices, provide social assistance that the government does not, and demonstrate its continuing strength at the polls.
Aug 26, 2013 U.S. News & World Report
What Would al Qaeda's PowerPoints Say?
Over the last 12 years, the campaign against al Qaeda has dominated U.S. policy. From this perspective, al Qaeda has been a beneficiary of the Arab uprisings in general and of recent events in Egypt and Syria in particular. The longer the turmoil continues, the greater al Qaeda's possible gains, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Aug 23, 2013 The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
Could Terrorists Pull Off a Mumbai-Style Attack in the U.S.?
There is, at present, no known terrorist group in the United States that has the organization and human resources to assemble an operation of the complexity and scale of the Mumbai attack, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Jul 10, 2013 U.S. News & World Report
Crowd-sourcing Our Security
Involvement can transform members of the public from helpless bystanders into active participants in their own defense, thereby reducing fear and alarm, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
May 13, 2013 The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
The Syrian Chemical Weapons Conundrum
Dealing with chemical weapons in Syria is a complicated and dangerous task, but nowhere near the challenge of securing a nuclear arsenal in a country consumed by crisis, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
May 1, 2013 U.S. News & World Report
The Day After
The risk of overreaching in the name of homeland security is great. But the best and most likely outcome of this latest attack would be a measured security response built around Americans engaging anew in their own security, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Apr 19, 2013 Slate
When Armies Divide: Securing Nuclear Arsenals During Internal Upheavals
With an army divided, any type of foreign intervention would be complex and fraught with extraordinary risk—success would be a long shot. But the loss of a nuclear weapon or fissile material would change the world.
Apr 12, 2013 The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
The Invasion of Iraq: A Balance Sheet
The costly removal of Saddam Hussein won no applause, earned no gratitude, established no reliable ally, and produced no lasting strategic benefit, says Brian Michael Jenkins.
Mar 22, 2013 The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
Drug Cartels an X-Factor for Obama, Peña Nieto
Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto and President Obama both face daunting domestic challenges and have ambitious domestic agendas, but both presidents are savvy politicians who realize that each will benefit from the other's success, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Feb 20, 2013 The Orange County Register
What Does the Amenas Attack Mean for U.S. Policy in Africa?
Coinciding with continuing, contentious hearings on the U.S. response to last September's terrorist attack in Benghazi, the attack on the Amenas natural gas facility in Algeria has elevated a more general debate about the war on terrorism and U.S. policy in Africa, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Jan 31, 2013 The RAND Blog
The Dynamics of the Hostage Situation at Amenas
Looking at the turmoil in Libya following Qaddafi's removal; the overthrow of governments in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen; and Syria's ongoing civil war, it is easy to see why the Algerian government would view any manifestation of an Islamist resurgence as a threat that had to be promptly crushed, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Jan 30, 2013 The RAND Blog
The Motivations Behind the Amenas Terrorist Attack
An attack of this complexity would have required months of reconnaissance, planning, recruiting of inside confederates, and training of participants. France's intervention in Mali was used to “justify” an attack that would likely have taken place anyway, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Jan 29, 2013 The RAND Blog
The al Qaeda Threat in North Africa
Last week's terrorist attack at the In Amenas gas complex in Algeria, along with the recent success of the militant groups fighting government forces in Mali, indicate al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are gaining influence in North Africa. RAND experts weigh in on the latest developments.
Jan 24, 2013
Generations of Terrorism
Whatever its eventual outcome, Syria's civil war has already produced thousands of experienced jihadists who will continue to threaten the region for years to come, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Dec 13, 2012 The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org
Latest Alleged Homegrown 'Terrorists' Fit the Mold
For many U.S.-born terror recruits, the prospect of blowing things up is a solution to an unsatisfactory life. Terrorism does not attract the well-adjusted, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Nov 20, 2012 The RAND Blog
Will Mexico's New President Continue the War on the Cartels?
During his campaign, Enrique Peña Nieto, the victorious PRI candidate, promised frightened and war-weary Mexicans a reduction in the violence, but since his election victory in July, he has sounded more and more bellicose, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Nov 16, 2012 The RAND Blog
TSA Procedures Need to Be Remade from Scratch
It is time for a new approach to meeting America's next-generation aviation security needs, one that dodges the influence of politics and bureaucracies and relies instead on the resources and objectivity of independent researchers operating from a clean slate, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Sep 28, 2012 U.S. News & World Report
Syrian Scenarios
The most likely outcome, in my opinion, may be no outcome at all, but instead a civil war lasting years. The conflict has become an existential struggle for its participants—their survival is at stake, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Aug 8, 2012 RAND.org and GlobalSecurity.org
An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat: A Resurgence of Iranian-Sponsored Terrorism
An excerpt from Brian Michael Jenkins' testimony to the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on July 11, 2012 titled
Jul 23, 2012
Getting the Threat Right
Would-be jihadist warriors are angry, eager for adventure, out to assuage personal humiliation and demonstrate their manhood. Many appear to be motivated by personal crises—terrorism does not attract the well adjusted, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Jun 15, 2012 CATO Unbound
A Final Word on the NDAA
While I have no doubt of Levin's determination to protect the constitutional rights of American citizens, incremental adjustments and seemingly small compromises, each sensible under the circumstances, can have a cumulative effect that erodes the very liberty we are trying to protect, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
May 7, 2012 Foreign Affairs
Is the War on Terror Over? Not Yet.
Over time, al Qaeda could just fade away. Always resilient, it may morph to survive. Developments on any of several fronts might even enable it to rise again. In a long contest, surprises must be expected, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
May 2, 2012 National Journal
The NDAA Makes It Harder to Fight Terrorism
Much of the debate over this bill has focused on the political issue of executive authority versus rule of law. In doing so it has overlooked the indirect and insidious effects the new law may have on the United States' largely successful counterterrorist campaign, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Feb 1, 2012 Foreign Affairs
Five Myths about 9/11
Fear has made al-Qaeda the world's top terrorist nuclear power, yet it possesses not a single nuke. This is a lesson in how terrorism works, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Sep 2, 2011 The Washington Post
Is it Time to Consider a New Approach to Airline Security?
It may be possible that the development and deployment of improved security technologies and reconfigurations of security checkpoints will keep security one step ahead of terrorist adversaries, but it also may be an appropriate time to explore fundamentally new approaches, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Sep 1, 2011 The Ripon Forum
Osama a Wizard of Illusion and Rhetoric
Bin Laden was chairman of the board, not CEO, using his moral authority to urge his tiny army forward, pointing out new ways to kill Americans, encouraging followers to think outside the typical terrorist playbook, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Jun 1, 2011 The Providence Journal
Al-Qaeda after bin Laden
Wary of communicating with each other and with al Qaeda's field commands, al Qaeda central could become more isolated, more dependent on its affiliates, allied groups, and individual acolytes, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
May 12, 2011 National Journal
What Al Qaeda Is Thinking Now: Defanged, but Desperate to Show They're Still in the Fight
There may be some spontaneous acts by individuals enraged by Bin Laden's death who are inspired to follow him into martyrdom. But these are the spasms of reaction, not planned retaliatory operations, and will not demonstrate that Al Qaeda can survive Bin Laden, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
May 4, 2011 New York Daily News
Why Terrorists Attack Airports
Attacks on airports give terrorists the symbolic value they seek and guarantee the attention of the international news media, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Jan 25, 2011 CNN
Book Review: 'Fallout' by Catherine Collins and Douglas Frantz
Anyone concerned about nuclear proliferation or interested in the world of espionage will want to read Catherine Collins and Douglas Frantz's provocative new book, "Fallout: The True Story of the CIA's Secret War on Nuclear Trafficking," which tells a fascinating story whose characters come straight out of a spy novel, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Jan 9, 2011 Los Angeles Times
Our Foes Cannot Destroy This Nation
We have come through wars, depressions, natural and man-made disasters, indeed higher levels of domestic terrorist violence than that we face today, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.
Sep 27, 2010 NationalJournal.com