Brian Michael Jenkins

The Israel-Hamas War Has Upended the Terrorist Threat Matrix

Today's terrorist threat matrix seems more like an abstract expressionist painting. To those accustomed to traditional landscapes, it is difficult to discern what it depicts. The fighting in Gaza may well provoke terrorist repercussions beyond the region, the magnitude and shape of which will depend on the course of the conflict.

The History of Hostage Negotiations Tells Us Empathy Isn't Enough

History offers no prescriptions on how to bargain for human life. The circumstances of each case differ, but lessons can be learned.

U.S. and Israel on Parallel Paths

From the political roles of religious fundamentalism, to the inability of either side to find compromise with the other, to leaders facing legal struggles, the United States and Israel have a lot in common.

Pandemics Don't Really End—They Echo

Pandemics have always frayed the social fabric, disrupted economies, deepened social divides, and intensified prejudices, leaving behind psychological scars—all of which have lasting political repercussions. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic will be felt long after the last rapid test comes back positive.

The War in Ukraine—Whose Quagmire?

Ukraine faces new perils. Not because of anything happening on the battlefield, but because Western impatience could force Ukraine into the spot it least wants to be in: at the negotiating table with Russia. Or, worse, not at the table where its future may be decided.

The End of the U.S. COVID-19 Public Health Emergency: Q&A with RAND Experts

We asked RAND experts to reflect on the past three years: What were the effects on the United States and around the world, what has changed, what are the most important takeaways, what was done right, and what was done wrong? At the same time, they looked ahead to what might be done to mitigate the health and geopolitical impacts of future pandemics.

Stalled in Ukraine, Kremlin Increasingly Turns to Political Theater

Stymied in Ukraine, Russian President Vladimir Putin has amped up the political theater to achieve his objectives. How do we interpret Putin's statements? While no nuclear threat should be ignored, Putin's pronouncements remain in the realm of propaganda.

Should Mexico's Drug Cartels Be Designated Foreign Terrorist Organizations?

While the outcry over the kidnapping and murder of U.S. citizens by members of the Gulf Cartel in Mexico is understandable, stridency should not preclude strategic assessment. America's problem with drug trafficking is not the lack of statutes, but the magnitude of the problem.

What Will Putin Do Next?

Vladimir Putin faces no elections, no party or state institutions that threaten his rule, no domestic political opposition. He is not moved by humanitarian crises or overly concerned about international condemnation. The longer the war drags on, the more risks Putin might be willing to take to meet his objectives. What might he do next?

Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The End and Beyond

We don't know yet know how the war in Ukraine may end. Despite heavy casualties, neither side is visibly falling apart or appears ready to back down. While no scenario can be excluded, the unequal strategic situation pushes future war scenarios toward variations of a stalemate.

Consequences of the War in Ukraine: The Economic Fallout

Before Russia invaded Ukraine, projections estimated global economic growth in 2022 would be around 5 percent. But the war in Ukraine contributed to slowed economic growth in 2022 and a slowed recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic. What are the broader consequences for the global economy?

Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Two Areas of Contention—Turkey and the Balkans

Turkey is navigating a narrow path between its NATO commitments and its relationship with Russia. The Western Balkans remain an arena of competition between pro-Russian and pro-Western elements. It's not clear how events might play out, but there are indications and track records.

Consequences of the War in Ukraine: NATO's Future

Security issues have again become paramount among NATO members, making the alliance far more relevant. But NATO's southeastern flank is soft and the war in Ukraine has exposed its fault lines.

Consequences of the War in Ukraine: A Bleak Outlook for Russia

Whatever may happen in Ukraine or in Russia, things will never be the same. A Russian failure in Ukraine could lead to escalation and a world-changing wider war, or it could lead to dramatic changes within Russia. Either outcome would make for a very different world.

Consequences of the War in Ukraine: Escalation

If Russian forces remain unable to defeat Ukraine, and Putin remains unwilling to back down, what escalation options does Russia have left?

Consequences of the War in Ukraine

One year ago, Russian ground forces, following a lengthy military buildup, invaded Ukraine. Today, the war continues, with no clear end in sight. How does this end?

The Three Vladimir Putins

What happens next in the war in Ukraine depends almost exclusively on the mindset, will, and decisions of Vladimir Putin. The various descriptions of Putin suggest three different characters: strongman Putin, messianic Putin, and rational Putin. We may take more comfort in the last. We probably shouldn't.

How COVID-19 Transformed the Jobs Market

The COVID-19 pandemic initially devastated the U.S. economy. It also exposed and exacerbated existing inequities in society. But in as yet unpredictable ways, it may have accelerated profound changes in how labor works today.

COVID-19's Biggest Casualty May Be Governability

Pandemics fuel pre-existing prejudices, deepen social divisions, and increase political tensions. As the United States heads into the midterm elections, the parties should be prepared to face headwinds whichever side emerges with control of Congress. COVID-19's biggest political casualty might be governability.

Is Our Response to the Pandemic a Preview of How We May Deal with Climate Change?

Do Americans have the stomach for tough times, hard work, and sacrifice? Or will many of the same problems experienced in responding to COVID-19 arise as Americans confront the challenge of climate change?

Societal Long COVID Here to Stay, Says Book: 'Normality Will Not Return'

Brian Michael Jenkins takes a look at past plagues—like the Black Death and the 1918 pandemic—to try to understand the future. In this adaptation from his book, Jenkins discusses how post-pandemic life will be marked by more than just long-lasting health concerns.

The Will to Fight, Lessons from Ukraine

In Ukraine, ferocious defense has stalled the invaders. Even if Kyiv falls, continued resistance seems likely. Ukraine has reminded the world that national unity in the face of existential threats, self-reliance strengthened by collective defense, and courage coupled with compassion can help underdog populations resist the mightiest military forces.

Complex Calculations Shape Pakistan-TTP Negotiations

Pakistan sees the Taliban as a facilitator of discussions with the TTP, as an ally in persuading the TTP to negotiate, and as a guarantor of whatever agreement is reached. And given the Taliban's diplomatic isolation and desperate economic situation, Pakistan can in return assist Afghanistan's new rulers in gaining acceptance and aid.

Politicians Face Violence and Threats from Voters—and Each Other. Are We Nearing a Civil War?

Does America's increasingly uncivil behavior mean we are heading toward civil war? The historical record seems to indicate that the country has a high tolerance for violence without breaking apart. But the threat of civil wars cannot be dismissed.

Negotiating with TTP—A Different Perspective

America's withdrawal and the Taliban's swift return to power in Afghanistan could be a primary force in shaping the trajectory of the continuing armed struggle with Pakistan's Taliban. It may be time for Islamabad to consider whether to renew efforts aimed at reaching a political settlement.

Countering Domestic Terrorism May Require Rethinking U.S. Intelligence Strategy

The United States is deeply divided, its political system polarized. Getting counterterrorism wrong could make the situation worse. The challenge is to isolate and contain violent extremists without turning them into political martyrs or half the country into enemies of the state.

Capitol Rioters Face FBI Arrests and Prosecution. How Not to Make Them Martyrs in the Process

The righteous wrath of those who view January 6 as an insurrection and believe we need uncompromising prosecution is understandable. But is it strategic thinking? History has shown that prosecutions based on less severe and politically-fraught charges have a greater chance of resulting in the convictions needed to stop this behavior.

Don't Muddy the Objectives on Fighting Domestic Extremism

The U.S. Capitol attack on January 6 has fueled momentum for new approaches and laws to counter attacks by domestic violent extremists. It will be crucial for policymakers to reckon with what new laws and law enforcement can achieve, and what they can get wrong.

Getting Out of Forever Wars: What Are Biden's Options in Afghanistan?

U.S. counterterrorism strategy has long been driven by the assumption that security at home depends on fighting terrorists abroad. How will that square with the president's pledge to end forever wars? Is it possible to get out of warfighting without shutting down vital counterterrorist operations?

Five Reasons to Be Wary of a New Domestic Terrorism Law

Momentum is building in Congress for legislation to deal with domestic terrorism. Here are five purely pragmatic reasons to be wary of addressing domestic terrorism with a new law.

Domestic Violent Extremists Will Be Harder to Combat Than Homegrown Jihadists

The beliefs driving today's domestic extremists are deeply rooted in American history and society. For this and several other reasons, shutting them down will prove far more difficult than combating homegrown jihadists.

How Threats Against Lawmakers Could Distort the Political Landscape for Years

The political environment is changing in a way that goes beyond immediate security concerns. The prevalence of threats and violence as a feature of American politics will ripple throughout the political system. Our politics could be distorted by the vicious atmosphere for years.

Why We Need a January 6 Commission to Investigate the Attack on the Capitol

The history of politically charged violence in and against the United States can be read in the reports of its national commissions. The takeover of the U.S. Capitol on January 6 demands such an inquiry.

The Battle of Capitol Hill

The deadly mob assault on the U.S. Capitol Building was a predictable possibility. Democracy held, but security failed, spectacularly. We need to be better prepared for future acts of political violence.

Domestic Terrorism and the U.S. Elections

The COVID-19 pandemic has roiled the elections. The United States is deeply divided and the political system is polarized. Under these fraught circumstances, even a minor event can have far-reaching repercussions. What are the prospects for domestic terrorism in the context of U.S. elections?

The American Jihad Was a Failure. For Those Who Joined, It Was a Path to Destruction

To keep the jihad going after 9/11, al Qaeda exhorted homegrown terrorists to take up arms in the United States. ISIS later made similar appeals. These calls to arms yielded some plots and a few attacks, but overall, the American jihad was a failure.

Could 2020 Spawn '70s-Style Radicals and Violence?

The U.S. response to the COVID-19 pandemic has further cleaved an already deeply divided society. The conditions facing the United States today are reminiscent of those that gave rise to the radicalism of the 1970s and could once again lead to political violence, including terrorism.

Deadly Terrorist Threats Abound in U.S. and Abroad. Here Are Key Dangers

Today's self-selecting solo terrorists answer only to their god, whether seeking to destroy all government, pursuing racial separation or genocidal goals, expressing sexual dissatisfaction, or simply wanting to leave their mark. Military operations are irrelevant. This is a deeper societal problem.

Exposing Russian Information Operations Does Not Violate the First Amendment

Russia's hostile information operations are continuous and extend to a broad range of domestic issues. First Amendment concerns are important, but they do not protect hostile information campaigns by foreign actors, nor are they a legal excuse for inaction by the United States.

All-Out U.S.-Iran War Is Unlikely. But Low-Level War Expected to Continue

Iranian retaliation for Soleimani's killing and counter-retaliation by the United States seem likely. But Tehran and Washington have good reasons to inflict limited pain without engaging in a full-scale war.

A 50-Year-Old Terrorist Innovation Is Still Creating Life-and-Death Dramas

Fifty years ago, urban guerrillas in Rio de Janeiro kidnapped the American ambassador to Brazil, setting off a worldwide wave of terrorist kidnappings that continues today. Although few of the terrorist groups that engaged in kidnapping over the past half century have survived, seizing hostages funded their operations and earned them notoriety. And for that reason, it will likely remain a mainstay of the terrorist tool kit.

Hadrian's Wall Was a Policy Statement; So Is Donald Trump's

It's not clear if Hadrian's Wall was necessary to prevent Scottish fighters from invading the Roman Empire. Neither is it clear how effective Trump's wall would be at repelling undocumented immigration and smugglers. Hadrian's Wall may have been of symbolic value to those on both sides of it. Trump's could be, too.

Leaving ISIS Detainees in the Desert Doesn't Serve U.S. Interests

Leaving ISIS detainees in the desert may sound like an apt punishment, but it's dangerous. Repatriation and prosecution could help ensure ISIS volunteers don't scatter to other jihadist fronts.

Terrorists on the Border and Government Secrecy

Detailed information on how many would-be terrorists may have sought to cross the southern border is being withheld on the grounds that it is sensitive. The refusal of officials to offer a fuller explanation of the numbers illustrates how the continued expansion of secrecy in government is damaging the ability of the public to assess the risk and evaluate the response.

Navigating the Latest Terrorism Trend

Terrorists are increasingly using vehicles as attack weapons, killing more than 150 people in the last 18 months. If this trend continues, the urban landscape will change as bollards, barricades and barriers, chicanes and checkpoints surround and subdivide public spaces. But do they make us safer?

The Origins of America's Jihadists

American jihadists are made in the United States, not imported. Homegrown terrorists have accounted for most of the jihadist activity in the U.S. since 9/11, with most of those who carried out or plotted terrorist attacks either born in the U.S. or arriving as children.

Vehicular Terrorism: Weighing the Benefits, and Worth, of Prevention

The terrorist attack in Barcelona has added urgency to discussions of what can be done to prevent terrorists from using vehicles as weapons. Many potential security measures would be disruptive, costly, and could easily be circumvented by a determined terrorist.

The Islamic State's Disposable Army

To leaders of the Islamic State group, murder of its own and collective suicide are keys to its defense strategy. The group targets malcontents and the most suggestible, knowing they are desperate to belong to something and willing to die for it.

Can We Predict Where Terrorists Will Strike Next?

Terrorism has escalated horizontally, not vertically. Instead of weapons of mass destruction, there has been a proliferation of low-level attacks. The trick will be to predict and prevent new plots.

When the Caliphate Falls, What Then for U.S. Policy?

The eventual fall of ISIS-controlled Raqqa will necessitate a review of U.S. policy in Syria. Policymakers can start thinking about the questions it will raise now.

Why Aren't There More Terrorist Attacks Like the One in London?

The number of attacks like the one on London Bridge are low because jihadist ideologies have failed to gain traction in most Muslim countries, and it's difficult to recruit people remotely. Supporting violence and participating in it are two different things.

London Bridge Attack: The Latest Example of 'Pure Terror'

Terrorists can attack anything, anywhere, any time. Preventing all pure terrorism is impossible, but seeking ways to divert vulnerable people from the terror path as Prime Minister May has discussed is a worthy step in that direction.

Why Would Assad Use Chemical Weapons?

The use of chemical weapons today provokes international condemnation, if not always action. Those who order their deployment risk being charged with war crimes. So why would Syria's President Bashar Assad use them?

Taking the 'Terror' Out of Terrorism Requires Outsmarting Fear

Terrorism aims to create terror. Building an effective counterterror strategy could help society understand how terrorism works, then work together toward a psychologically more resilient and less vulnerable mindset.

For U.S., Many Options but No Clear Path in Middle East

The struggle against jihadist terrorism has a long way to go. All courses of action come with risks, but are not mutually exclusive. The U.S. could escalate the fight, work with state partners in the Middle East, or withdraw from the region.

Why a Travel Restriction Won't Stop Terrorism at Home

It's not unreasonable to seek a review of immigration, and refugee-vetting procedures make sense. But America's jihadist terrorists are not imported from abroad. They are mostly homegrown.

Dealing with a Revanchist Russia

The deployment of additional U.S. forces and other NATO units to Poland, Norway, the Baltics, and other states symbolically reinforces the West's commitment to the alliance. But countering Russia's influence will require a fundamental reformulation of EU and U.S. political strategy.

When Is a Terrorist Really a Terrorist?

Countering mass violence demands a distinction between attackers who are truly inspired by jihadism and those with lesser links. The latter includes people whose mental states and violent tendencies preexist their exposure to the ideology.

What ISIS Leaves Behind in Mosul Will Reveal a Lot

The capture of Mosul, Iraq, may produce a potential trove of information about how ISIS organized itself to run a large city. Collecting, analyzing, and disseminating this material will be a major effort, one of the most important as the city is liberated.

What the Battles of Mosul and Aleppo Tell Us About Their Countries' Futures

The battle of Mosul is not just about defeating ISIS. It is about restoring Mosul to the multi-ethnic city it once was. The Syrian government's style of warfare in Aleppo, however, accepts that Syria will remain a divided country.

U.S. More Able Than Ever to Combat Terrorism

Acts of pure terrorism are truly arbitrary and extremely difficult to protect against, but they are rare. Improved domestic counterterrorist efforts have uncovered and interrupted close to 90 percent of jihadist terrorist plots in the U.S. since 9/11.

Fifteen Years on, Where Are We in the 'War on Terror'?

Much has changed since the 9/11 terrorist attacks. Counterterrorism efforts have made progress, and Americans are safer. But it's unclear how much further the fight against terrorism has to go.

President Obama's Controversial Legacy as Counterterrorism-in-Chief

There were no attacks like 9/11 during Obama's eight years in office. But there were plenty of terrorist adversaries. While he will be judged in part for his domestic achievements, Obama's counterterrorism choices are a major part of his legacy.

A Persistent and Resilient Adversary: Al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula

The history of al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula catalogues every dimension of frustration in combatting terrorism. But is it possible that the United States and its Gulf allies are finally getting the measure of AQAP?

What's in a Name? The Rebranding of the Nusra Front

Jabhat al-Nusra, which recently announced that it was severing its affiliation with al Qaeda, is now Jabhat Fateh al-Sham. This means less than meets the eye, but it does say something about the local atmosphere in Syria.

Is the Surge in Terrorist Attacks Coincidence or Coordinated Campaign?

Whatever the investigations of recent terrorist attacks reveal, the facts may be portrayed (or ignored) to fit narratives written even before the blood has dried.

The Response to Every Terrorist Attack Cannot Be Another Checkpoint

The Istanbul attack will renew calls to extend existing security screening at the front doors of terminals. But checkpoints create bottlenecks and queues of people waiting to get through them, which then become an easy target.

Cyberterrorism and the Role of Silicon Valley

As national security and war are being redefined for the digital age, Silicon Valley will need to be on the front line of counterterrorism. Its inventors and entrepreneurs are driving the information revolution, and they must figure out how to protect vital systems against malevolent intrusions.

Terrorism Shouldn't Affect Travel Plans

Evidence suggests that the threat of terrorism need not affect individuals' behavior and travel decisions, not even in the wake of attacks such as those in Brussels and Paris.

In the Event of the Islamic State's Untimely Demise...

If they haven't already, the Islamic State's leaders will soon formulate a contingency strategy, a Plan B that the West will then be forced to contend with.

Five Years After the Death of Osama bin Laden, Is the World Safer?

What effect did killing bin Laden have on al Qaeda's ability to pursue its jihadist goals? Does high-value targeting contribute to counterterrorist strategy more broadly? Does killing terrorist leaders work?

Europe's Terror Fight Far from Over

Salah Abdeslam is suspected of being the logistics man for the November terrorist attacks in Paris. His capture may provide authorities with a window into the ISIS network in Europe.

How Real Is the ISIS Threat?

In less than two years, ISIS's black flag has flown in a dozen countries outside of Syria and Iraq. And terrorist attacks have been carried out in its name in the West, including in America. But how serious is the threat that ISIS's brand of jihad will spread on a global scale?

Could ISIS and Al Qaeda, Two Giants of Jihad, Unite?

It could take a change in leadership in both Al Qaeda and ISIS and perhaps some compromises on mission and strategy, but there are enough points of confluence to make a united jihadist front a realistic and frightening possibility.

A Symbolic Purging of the NYPD Radicalization Report

The NYPD's purging of its 2007 report on radicalization may give some satisfaction by symbolically breaking the connection between the current mayoral administration and the NYPD's previous intelligence and investigative efforts. But its significance seems questionable.

Oregon Standoff Shouldn't Have an Anti-Terrorism Twist

Dwight and Steven Hammond were charged under a law enacted to fight terrorism, not rein in wayward ranchers. Anti-terrorist laws should not be used to strengthen prosecutors' hands in nonterrorist prosecutions—it makes national security needs look like an instrument of oppression.

How Terrorist Threats Against LA and New York Schools Exposed Weaknesses

The handling of terrorist threats on Los Angeles and New York City schools calls into question the ability of national and local government to coordinate a terrorist crisis involving two or more cities.

How Terrorists Get Here

Of 134 jihadist-inspired terrorists who have carried out or plotted attacks in the United States since 9/11, 96 were U.S. citizens and 19 others were legal permanent residents. While some level of comfort may be drawn from the fact that terrorists are not pouring into the country, there is no basis for complacency.

If Terrorism Is Homegrown, a Visa Overhaul Won't Keep Americans Safe

Despite being the focus of renewed scrutiny, only three people involved in terrorist incidents have entered the United States via the visa waiver program in the past quarter-century.

Why the Paris Terrorists Couldn't Be Stopped

Terrorists almost always have the advantage. Theoretically, they can attack anything, anywhere, anytime. And governments cannot protect everything, everywhere, all the time.

Big Questions Facing France

In Paris, the heavily armed terrorists reportedly struck at six locations, including restaurants, a football stadium, and a theater during a rock concert. It seems clear the killers must have had some confederates. That would mean some terrorists are still at large.

Passing Judgment on Russian Plane Crash Before the Facts Are In

A bright flash and catastrophic event suggest an explosion, but do not necessarily exclude the possibility of a mechanical failure. This would not, in fact, be the first time evidence pointed to a terrorist attack when none existed.

Five Options for the U.S. in Syria

How should the United States respond to Russia's intervention in Syria's civil war? Here are five options intended to encourage rational thinking based upon realistic presumptions, not media or campaign-driven hype.

Will Today's Refugees Become the 'New Palestinians'?

The conflicts in Syria and Iraq have generated the greatest volume of refugees since World War II. If the international community is to avoid seeing the emergence of a population of new Palestinians lasting decades into the future, it will have to craft a more coherent approach.

Any Review of Syria and Iraq Strategy Needs Realistic Reappraisal

Since the American-led coalition bombing campaign began a year ago, ISIS has suffered some military setbacks and lost territory, but it also has been able to capture several more key cities in Iraq and Syria, and, despite the bombing, continues to attract a large number of foreign fighters.

The Strategic Value of Terrorism

While terrorists and criminals joining forces is certainly a scary thought, it's nothing new and not something that works as simply in practice as it does on a white board. Still, it's a threat worth watching.

The 1970s and the Birth of Contemporary Terrorism

While terrorism worldwide has increased over the past four decades — and the threat of terrorism continues to dominate Americans' fears — the 14 years since 9/11 have been tranquil on the home front compared to the violent 1970s.

After Attacks in France, Tunisia, and Kuwait, West Must Do More to Fight Surge of Terrorist Attacks

The terrorist attacks in France, Tunisia, and Kuwait are just the latest warnings that ISIS is turning its campaign into a global enterprise.

TSA Flunked Its Security Test Big Time — Now What?

We have to accept that humans, no matter how well-trained they are or how dedicated they are to their mission, are just not very good at maintaining laser-like focus while performing repetitive tasks. That does not mean airport security can ever be completely given over to machines.

Should There Be a Hostage Czar?

In light of recent kidnappings ending in the deaths of American hostages, appointing a 'hostage czar' may seem like a sound idea. But the creation of a high-profile position for hostage issues raises policy questions and comes with operational risks.

The Death of Hostages and High-Flying Illusions

Risk is unavoidable in fighting war or terrorism. Soldiers are sometimes felled by friendly fire, and civilians ostensibly on the sidelines become accidental targets. It is unrealistic to believe that such tragedies can always be prevented. Risks can be reduced but never entirely eliminated.

Inside the Terrorist Factory

As the civil wars in Syria and Iraq continue, they sharpen the sectarian divide between Sunnis and Shias, threatening the stability of the region and attracting a steady flow of foreign volunteers, effectively turning Syria and Iraq into a terrorist factory.

The Allure of ISIS for Young Recruits

Poverty and oppression may explain why people in some countries embrace violent extremism, but it does not account for the flow of Western volunteers or the dreamy allure of fighting for a faraway cause. Biographies of those who have reached out to participate in jihad suggest a variety of motives, including alienation, personal crises, dissatisfaction with empty spiritual lives, and adolescent rebellion.

Different Countries, Different Ways of Countering Terrorism

France and the United States follow different approaches in dealing with terrorist suspects. This divergence reflects differences in the threat, historical experience, law, available resources, and public attitudes. France faces a more serious terrorist threat than the U.S. does.

Predicting the 'Dangerousness' of Potential Terrorists

Predicting 'dangerousness' of potential terrorists is a hit-and-miss endeavor. Unless someone is waving a gun, it is extremely difficult. Even with direct access to the subject, parole boards, suicide prevention units and even trained clinicians get it wrong.

Attempting to Understand the Paris Attacks

The investigation will eventually fill in some of the gaps in our knowledge of the events leading up to the attacks in Paris, but some questions will remain unanswered. Embedded in the unknowns are some of the chronic dilemmas faced by counterterrorist authorities everywhere.

ISIS's Calculated Barbarity

ISIS's decision to murder its Jordanian hostage by burning him alive may turn out to be a strategic miscalculation, but it is not madness. Through self-selection, continued fighting, and the exaltation of unlimited violence, ISIS has created a cult whose members command and revel in displays of ever-increasing cruelty.

Experts React to ISIS's Gruesome Execution of Jordanian Pilot

A grisly video released yesterday by ISIS appears to show Jordanian pilot Muath al-Kasaesbeh burned alive in a cage. Why the shift away from beheadings? What does the execution mean for Jordan? What implications will it have for ISIS?

Improving Domestic Security to Combat Today's Terrorist Threats

Today, the U.S. confronts a multilayered terrorist threat and the recent spate of attacks in Europe underscores the necessity for ensuring that intelligence keeps up with it. Intelligence services must continue to prevent terrorist assaults dispatched from abroad, head off new shoe and underwear bombers, intercept individuals returning from jihadist fronts with terrorist intentions, while at the same time uncovering and thwarting homegrown plots.

Eight Lessons from the Charlie Hebdo Attack

Among the lessons to be learned from the attacks in Paris are that terrorism has many audiences, Al-Qaida remains a threat, would-be warriors are unconcerned with the schisms among jihadist camps, Europe has a more serious problem, such an attack could happen in the U.S., and intelligence is crucial.

Terror in Paris, Answers from RAND Experts

The attack that claimed the lives of 12 people in the offices of a Paris-based satirical magazine sent waves of terror and disbelief across France today. RAND experts discuss what the terrorists stand to gain from the attack, what it could mean for Muslims around the world, and more.

A Grim Choice: The Attempted Rescue of Hostages

Many described the attempt to rescue Luke Somers from al Qaeda's affiliate in Yemen as 'botched,' suggesting it was badly or carelessly planned or executed. 'Desperate' may be more apt. Such measures aren't undertaken without a grim calculus weighing the chances of success against a range of other outcomes, most of which involve the hostages' doom.

When Jihadis Come Marching Home

The existing pool of determined jihadists in America is very small and lacks training and experience, which fighting in Syria and Iraq would provide. Returning jihadi veterans would be more formidable adversaries. Still, the threat appears manageable using current U.S. laws and existing resources.

Is Obama a Modern-Day Quintus Fabius Maximus?

Critics say President Obama dragged his feet on sending more troops to Afghanistan, on addressing the dangers in Libya, on providing support to Syria's rebels and, most recently, on initiating military action against Islamic State. But is that necessarily such a bad thing?

Air Campaign Against ISIS Is Just Getting Off the Ground

More than 60 countries have joined the coalition against ISIS, with at least 12 participating in the air campaign. Eventually, this will be an impressive armada, but the campaign is still in its first stage, and most of the coalition participants joined the effort only recently.

What Could U.S. Boots on the Ground Do in Iraq and Syria?

Before embracing American boots on the ground as a strategy to fight ISIS, it's essential to be clear about what they're going to do, what they may require, and what risks may be entailed.

What Are ISIS's Options Now?

In domestic debates about what the United States should do to blunt the threat posed by ISIS, Americans often forget the adversary also has options. A determined force, ISIS will counter the bombing campaign.

An Inconvenient War

Congress has not addressed President Obama's plans to take other military steps against ISIS. Some members of Congress do not want to vote on the use of military force until after the upcoming elections. Among these are some who fear their vote could cost them votes.

Why the U.S. Swaps Prisoners but Doesn't Pay Ransom

Reports that the United States refused to pay ransom for journalist James Foley, only weeks before it released Taliban prisoners in exchange for Army Sergeant Bowe Bergdahl, have caused confusion about U.S. policy. On the surface, it may seem inconsistent. Why release prisoners but not pay ransom?

Disrupting Terrorist Safe Havens

Disrupting the terrorist safe havens in Syria and Iraq would require a balanced approach that makes the business of terrorist planning and training difficult without entangling U.S. forces in new conflicts and angering the very populations the United States seeks to assist.

An Evil Wind

The threat of global terrorist enterprises has been enhanced by Western fighters joining al Qaeda offshoots like the Islamic State. With the terrorist threat evolving, the United States has little choice but to evolve with it.

TSA's Cellphone Rule Part of Deadly Race

While placing explosives inside a cellphone is plausible, it is almost impossible to do so with iPhones without rendering them non-functional, which is why the TSA is now checking cell phones are actually working.

Iraq Makes Strange Bedfellows

In seeking to quell the unrest in Iraq, the United States must balance its own interests with those of a diverse cast of players that includes Iraq, Iran, Russia, Saudi Arabia, an unpredictable and violent jihadist front and others.

Further Observations on the Situation in Iraq

It is difficult to see how the United States can favorably affect the situation in Iraq without making a costly and risky investment. But that does not mean doing nothing. An immediate objective is to contain the conflict.

Iraq Observations

Will the Obama administration be blamed for losing Iraq if it does not order military intervention? Or will history judge the president wise for keeping U.S. forces out of war? As Americans debate assisting Iraq, including the possibility of military intervention, here are 10 things to keep in mind.

The Risks of Rescue

As appealing as a successful mission to rescue the 200 school girls held hostage by Boko Haram in Nigeria might appear, the use of U.S. military assets to mount a rescue attempt would be a mistake.

Nigeria's Inescapable Burden

The historical record suggests that when many hostages are involved, rescues are bloody affairs. Early RAND research on hostage situations showed that of all the ways hostages may be killed—during the initial abduction, trying to escape, murdered by their captors or during the rescue—79 percent died during the rescue.

The Breach of Security at San Jose's Airport Raises Broader Issues

Those charged with security must think in terms of 360-degree security—not only screening passengers coming through the terminal, but also preventing unauthorized access to the aircraft from the air operations side of airport.

When Terrorists Kill Terrorists

Battles between rival rebel groups and within terrorist organizations are not uncommon. Terrorists may compete with each other, sometimes in deadly battles, for the control of sources of financing. Some of the internal struggles are about who will lead.

A Bigger, but Less Unified, al Qaeda

In the long run, al Qaeda might be able to reel in its more unreliable offspring, assert more control, demand their obedience, and call upon their resources to assist in global operations. But without a stronger center, that possibility seems remote.

After Boston, Beware DIY Attacks: Front & Center

Orlando Sentinel editorial writer Darryl E. Owens interviewed Brian Michael Jenkins, senior adviser to the president of RAND. They discussed last year's Boston Marathon bombing and the current threat of terrorist acts in the United States.

Discord Among Terrorists

Overall, divisions in Al Qaeda's ranks are good news for the United States. While the split will not end the jihadists' terrorist campaigns, it will preoccupy Al Qaeda's leaders and create uncertainty in its ranks.

What Might Terrorists Do Next?

No one can predict with any certainty what terrorists might do next. If there is one lesson America learned about counterterrorism on 9/11, it's that the coming attack may look nothing like those that preceded it.

Experts Are Working to Develop Evidence-Based Ways to Measure Anti-Terrorism Efforts

The effects of security measures ought not to be measured solely in terms of prevention. Different types of countermeasures produce different effects, such as deterrence, making it easier for security to intervene during an attempted attack, and providing visible security that reassures the public.

Fight Today's Terrorist Threat, Not Yesterday's

Counterterrorism is not just about daring raids and drone strikes. It is about the hard work of collecting and sifting through vast amounts of information and managing relationships among organizations that often regard sharing information as an unnatural act.

The Secretive Battle for Sochi

Russia seems to be taking prudent steps to make the games the safe and secure display of athleticism and international good fellowship they once were. The outcome hinges on a pair of unknowns: the secret counterterrorism strategies Russian authorities have undertaken and the terrorists’ capacity for creativity and surprise.

The Real Homeland Security Issues for 2014

Americans should be able to discuss the terrorist threat and how best to meet it, how much of the country’s precious resources should be devoted to homeland security, and the impact intelligence efforts can have on personal privacy and freedom.

The Terrorist Threat to the Sochi Olympics

From the Black September attacks on Israeli athletes in 1972, to the post 9/11 games in Salt Lake City, to the 2012 games in London, security has been a concern at all modern Olympics. Recent terrorist attacks in Russia, though, present particular concern as the world's athletes descend on Sochi.

Syria's Bloody Stalemate

With little chance of a negotiated end to the fighting, the war in Syria is likely to drag on. And even if somehow the bloodshed were to end relatively soon, the war will leave a legacy of odium and thousands of fighters that will threaten the region and beyond far into the future.

Why Did Terrorists Attack Volgograd?

The Volgograd attacks have brought renewed world attention to the unresolved conflict in the turbulent Caucasus. The bombings no doubt have rattled Russian nerves. While Umarov's reputation among extremists will rise, President Putin's reputation as defender of Russia is at stake.

Should the United States End Assistance to Syria's Rebels?

The American investment in Syria thus far can be accurately described as timid and minimal. The United States can do more to assist the rebels without directly using American military power or sliding into a strategy of escalation.

Whither al Qaeda: A 'Tri-alogue' with Brian Michael Jenkins, Seth Jones, and Andrew Liepman

Recent comments by key U.S. lawmakers have again raised the issue of where the United States is in its campaign against al Qaeda. This has left some to wonder if the terrorism threat is increasing and if Americans are not as safe as they were a year or two ago. Three senior RAND analysts offer their take.

Want to Create Problems? Arm the TSA

With its current 47,000 screeners, an armed TSA would become the federal government's largest armed entity outside of the military. In the eyes of many, arming TSA screeners would change the image of the organization from a service aimed at guaranteeing safe air travel to an unwanted imposition of federal authority.

Airport Violence—Not a New Phenomenon

Shootings at airports are nothing new, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. In fact, they have regularly occurred worldwide in recent years. The motives have included terrorism, crime, and mental illness.

How War on Terrorism Has Evolved

Special operations to capture terrorists are more dangerous than drone strikes, and nimble terrorist adversaries will develop countermeasures to make them even more difficult. But they are politically more acceptable and offer opportunities for intelligence and the visible delivery of justice.

Syria As We Know It Is Gone

Other than as a geographic expression, Syria has ceased to exist, writes Brian Michael Jenkins. With Russian, Iranian, and Hezbollah support, Bashar Assad's forces, at the moment, appear to have gained the initiative over a fragmented rebel movement.

10 Reasons U.S. Influence Has Fallen in the Middle East

By most assessments, U.S. influence in the Middle East has dramatically declined since the Arab uprisings began in January 2011. Critics have blamed this on inept diplomacy by the current administration, but this is only a partial explanation for America's loss of authority in the region.

Limited U.S. Military Strikes Do Not Unseat Dug-in Dictators

Like the measured attacks that may soon strike Syrian targets, America's first military attacks on Serbia, Libya, Iraq, Sudan, and Afghanistan were not aimed at regime change. Their purpose was to retaliate for attacks or coerce changes in policy.

What's Next for the Muslim Brotherhood?

Some believe the Muslim Brotherhood should stay in the political game, adopting the role of loyal opposition. The Brotherhood would remain a minority party, but it could continue to hold offices, provide social assistance that the government does not, and demonstrate its continuing strength at the polls.

What Would al Qaeda's PowerPoints Say?

Over the last 12 years, the campaign against al Qaeda has dominated U.S. policy. From this perspective, al Qaeda has been a beneficiary of the Arab uprisings in general and of recent events in Egypt and Syria in particular. The longer the turmoil continues, the greater al Qaeda's possible gains, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Could Terrorists Pull Off a Mumbai-Style Attack in the U.S.?

There is, at present, no known terrorist group in the United States that has the organization and human resources to assemble an operation of the complexity and scale of the Mumbai attack, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Crowd-sourcing Our Security

Involvement can transform members of the public from helpless bystanders into active participants in their own defense, thereby reducing fear and alarm, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

The Syrian Chemical Weapons Conundrum

Dealing with chemical weapons in Syria is a complicated and dangerous task, but nowhere near the challenge of securing a nuclear arsenal in a country consumed by crisis, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

The Day After

The risk of overreaching in the name of homeland security is great. But the best and most likely outcome of this latest attack would be a measured security response built around Americans engaging anew in their own security, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

When Armies Divide: Securing Nuclear Arsenals During Internal Upheavals

With an army divided, any type of foreign intervention would be complex and fraught with extraordinary risk—success would be a long shot. But the loss of a nuclear weapon or fissile material would change the world.

The Invasion of Iraq: A Balance Sheet

The costly removal of Saddam Hussein won no applause, earned no gratitude, established no reliable ally, and produced no lasting strategic benefit, says Brian Michael Jenkins.

Drug Cartels an X-Factor for Obama, Peña Nieto

Mexican president Enrique Peña Nieto and President Obama both face daunting domestic challenges and have ambitious domestic agendas, but both presidents are savvy politicians who realize that each will benefit from the other's success, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

What Does the Amenas Attack Mean for U.S. Policy in Africa?

Coinciding with continuing, contentious hearings on the U.S. response to last September's terrorist attack in Benghazi, the attack on the Amenas natural gas facility in Algeria has elevated a more general debate about the war on terrorism and U.S. policy in Africa, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

The Dynamics of the Hostage Situation at Amenas

Looking at the turmoil in Libya following Qaddafi's removal; the overthrow of governments in Tunisia, Egypt, and Yemen; and Syria's ongoing civil war, it is easy to see why the Algerian government would view any manifestation of an Islamist resurgence as a threat that had to be promptly crushed, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

The Motivations Behind the Amenas Terrorist Attack

An attack of this complexity would have required months of reconnaissance, planning, recruiting of inside confederates, and training of participants. France's intervention in Mali was used to “justify” an attack that would likely have taken place anyway, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

The al Qaeda Threat in North Africa

Last week's terrorist attack at the In Amenas gas complex in Algeria, along with the recent success of the militant groups fighting government forces in Mali, indicate al Qaeda and other terrorist groups are gaining influence in North Africa. RAND experts weigh in on the latest developments.

Generations of Terrorism

Whatever its eventual outcome, Syria's civil war has already produced thousands of experienced jihadists who will continue to threaten the region for years to come, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Latest Alleged Homegrown 'Terrorists' Fit the Mold

For many U.S.-born terror recruits, the prospect of blowing things up is a solution to an unsatisfactory life. Terrorism does not attract the well-adjusted, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Will Mexico's New President Continue the War on the Cartels?

During his campaign, Enrique Peña Nieto, the victorious PRI candidate, promised frightened and war-weary Mexicans a reduction in the violence, but since his election victory in July, he has sounded more and more bellicose, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

TSA Procedures Need to Be Remade from Scratch

It is time for a new approach to meeting America's next-generation aviation security needs, one that dodges the influence of politics and bureaucracies and relies instead on the resources and objectivity of independent researchers operating from a clean slate, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Syrian Scenarios

The most likely outcome, in my opinion, may be no outcome at all, but instead a civil war lasting years. The conflict has become an existential struggle for its participants—their survival is at stake, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Getting the Threat Right

Would-be jihadist warriors are angry, eager for adventure, out to assuage personal humiliation and demonstrate their manhood. Many appear to be motivated by personal crises—terrorism does not attract the well adjusted, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

A Final Word on the NDAA

While I have no doubt of Levin's determination to protect the constitutional rights of American citizens, incremental adjustments and seemingly small compromises, each sensible under the circumstances, can have a cumulative effect that erodes the very liberty we are trying to protect, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Is the War on Terror Over? Not Yet.

Over time, al Qaeda could just fade away. Always resilient, it may morph to survive. Developments on any of several fronts might even enable it to rise again. In a long contest, surprises must be expected, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

The NDAA Makes It Harder to Fight Terrorism

Much of the debate over this bill has focused on the political issue of executive authority versus rule of law. In doing so it has overlooked the indirect and insidious effects the new law may have on the United States' largely successful counterterrorist campaign, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Five Myths about 9/11

Fear has made al-Qaeda the world's top terrorist nuclear power, yet it possesses not a single nuke. This is a lesson in how terrorism works, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Is it Time to Consider a New Approach to Airline Security?

It may be possible that the development and deployment of improved security technologies and reconfigurations of security checkpoints will keep security one step ahead of terrorist adversaries, but it also may be an appropriate time to explore fundamentally new approaches, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Osama a Wizard of Illusion and Rhetoric

Bin Laden was chairman of the board, not CEO, using his moral authority to urge his tiny army forward, pointing out new ways to kill Americans, encouraging followers to think outside the typical terrorist playbook, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Al-Qaeda after bin Laden

Wary of communicating with each other and with al Qaeda's field commands, al Qaeda central could become more isolated, more dependent on its affiliates, allied groups, and individual acolytes, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

What Al Qaeda Is Thinking Now: Defanged, but Desperate to Show They're Still in the Fight

There may be some spontaneous acts by individuals enraged by Bin Laden's death who are inspired to follow him into martyrdom. But these are the spasms of reaction, not planned retaliatory operations, and will not demonstrate that Al Qaeda can survive Bin Laden, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Why Terrorists Attack Airports

Attacks on airports give terrorists the symbolic value they seek and guarantee the attention of the international news media, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Book Review: 'Fallout' by Catherine Collins and Douglas Frantz

Anyone concerned about nuclear proliferation or interested in the world of espionage will want to read Catherine Collins and Douglas Frantz's provocative new book, "Fallout: The True Story of the CIA's Secret War on Nuclear Trafficking," which tells a fascinating story whose characters come straight out of a spy novel, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Our Foes Cannot Destroy This Nation

We have come through wars, depressions, natural and man-made disasters, indeed higher levels of domestic terrorist violence than that we face today, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Denying Homegrown Terrorists the Glory

How should the United States counter homegrown jihadist terrorism? With al Qaeda and its jihadist allies extolling recent terrorist exploits in the United States, we must anticipate further attacks by terrorists who have been recruited and radicalized here in this country, writes Brian Jenkins.

5 Reasons We're Safer From Terrorists

Why aren't there more Times Square bombers? It is not a complaint, but a question that intrigues terrorism analysts. Why haven't more jihadist terrorist attacks been attempted in the United States since 9/11?, asks Brian Michael Jenkins.

Jihadist Threat Keeps Evolving

The lesson of the Times Square attack is that the terrorist threat posed by the jihadist movement continues to evolve. It is today more decentralized, more dependent upon al Qaeda's affiliates, allies and individual acolytes to continue its global terrorist campaign, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Al Qaeda Tipping Point? Still a Long Way to Go

Although al Qaeda appears to be coming under pressure in some dimensions, I remain wary of calling a tipping point, and I am even more skeptical about the prospect of a knockout punch, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

What We Can Learn from the Christmas Day Bombing Attempt

President Obama's nominee to lead the Transportation Security Administration said he would like U.S. airport screening to more closely resemble Israel's. Perhaps attention is turning to what really matters about the attempted bombing of Northwest Flight 253: what it can teach us about aviation security, write

Jihad Jane and the Risk of Domestic Terrorism

The revelation of the arrest in October of Colleen Renee LaRose, who had adopted the pathetically predictable nom de guerre Jihad Jane, once again focuses national attention on homegrown terrorism. But while worrisome, this threat needs to be kept in perspective, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

How Can We Keep Los Angeles Secure?

High-ranking officials in Washington tell Americans that the threat from terrorists—principally self-radicalized homegrown terrorists—is high. Do terrorists pose a threat to Los Angeles? asks Brian Michael Jenkins.

How a Decade of Terror Changed America

Two foiled airliner bombings bracket a decade that changed the world's understanding of terrorism as a new form of global warfare and has had profound ramifications we are still coming to grips with in the U.S., writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Afghanistan: A Marathon, Not a Prize Fight

President Obama's decision to send 30,000 additional troops to Afghanistan reflects a nation deeply divided on the war. There are compelling arguments on both sides, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

How Russia Can and Can't Help Obama

In hindsight, KGB analysts and Soviet officials were extraordinarily prescient about the perils of Islamist terrorism and the fallout from the Afghan jihad. But could Russia, for all its faults and foibles, be a more valuable counterterrorism partner today, asks Brian Michael Jenkins.

Who Has the Will to Fight Piracy?

The recent French and American rescues of hostages held by pirates off the coast of Somalia were necessary and proper. No one believes these actions will end piracy. But unless we impose risks on the pirates--which means taking some risks ourselves--piracy will certainly flourish, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

The Torture Debate, Redux

Former Vice President Cheney has been insisting again that the coercive interrogation techniques used against terrorism detainees after 9/11 prevented attacks on the United States.... His assertions merit more careful examination, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Could Mexico Fail?

The lawlessness along the mexicanborder has gone way beyond alocal crime wave: there has beena dramatic increase in armed robberies, not by lone gunmen but by heavily armed gangs. Kidnappings and homicides are way up—and not just murders but beheadings.... It is starting to look like a terrorist campaign, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

The Obama Withdrawal From Iraq: How Fast?

The debate over withdrawal of American forces from Iraq has effectively ended: Troops will begin withdrawing in early 2009.... What is not yet entirely clear is what type of residual American force may remain in Iraq, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Mumbai's Terrifying Logic

We tend to describe terrorism as senseless violence, but it seldom is. If we look at the attacks from the attackers' perspective, we can discern a certain strategic logic, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

How Will Obama First Be Tested?

Vice President-elect Biden was on solid historical ground. He was not implying that there is a band of bad guys hiding in some cellar conjuring up a crisis specifically to take on Obama. It is simply that, many new American presidents have confronted major foreign policy crises within their first year in office, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Obama's First International Crisis

When Sen. Joe Biden observed during the presidential campaign that a new President Barack Obama

Georgia Dispute Derails Bid to Stop Nuke Terrorism

Given American concerns about nuclear proliferation and the possibility of nuclear terrorism, tying U.S.-Russian cooperation in the nuclear domain with the current Russia-Georgia quarrel may amount to shooting ourselves in the foot in a misguided attempt to punish Russia, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

America is uniquely susceptible to nuclear terror. Beneath our characteristic national optimism lie seams of anxiety, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

A Nuclear 9/11?

Will terrorists go nuclear? It is a question that worried public officials and frightened citizens have been asking for decades. It is no less of a worry today, as we ponder the seventh anniversary of 9/11, writes Brian Michael Jenkins.

A New Tact on Iraq

American troops are likely to be needed in Iraq for years to come. Few insurgencies end in less than 10 years, and the conflict in Iraq is an especially complex mixture of guerrilla warfare, sectarian violence and virulent organized crime, writes Brian Michael Jenkins in a commentary appearing in Washingtonpost.com.

Combating Radicalization

Nothing is more important in the global war on terrorism than reducing the production of new terrorists, writes Brian Michael Jenkins in a commentary appearing in United Press International.

Nuclear Terror: How Real?

Nuclear Terror: How Real? in Washington Times

Not Every Tragedy Has a Solution

Published commentary by RAND staff: Not Every Tragedy Has a Solution, in Washingtonpost.com.

Old Front Against Terrorism

Published commentary by RAND staff: Old Front Against Terrorism, in the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Terror War Uncertainties

Published commentary by RAND staff: Terror War Uncertainties, in United Press International.

State of Terrorism Address: What Would Osama Bin Laden Say to Jihadists Five Years Later?

Published commentary by RAND staff: State of Terrorism Address: What Would Osama Bin Laden Say to Jihadists Five Years Later?, in the Los Angeles Times.

Safer, But Not Safe

Published commentary by RAND staff: Safer, But Not Safe, in the San Diego Union-Tribune.

The Threat of Oil Jihad

Published commentary by RAND staff: The Threat of Oil Jihad, in United Press International.

Lessons for Intelligence in the Campaign Against al Qaeda

Published commentary by RAND staff: Lessons for Intelligence in the Campaign Against al Qaeda, in Vanguard magazine.

Just Starting: The War Against Terror

Published commentary by RAND staff: Just Starting: The War Against Terror, in Newsday.

Misjudging The Jihad: Briefing Osama on All the War's Wins and Losses

Published commentary by RAND staff: Misjudging The Jihad: Briefing Osama on All the War's Wins and Losses in the San Francisco Chronicle.

Terror in Historical Context

Published commentary by RAND staff: Prepare for Disaster in the United Press International.

Let Sgt. Friday Fight Terror

Published commentary by RAND staff: Let Sgt. Friday Fight Terror in the Los Angeles Times.

Democracy's Defense: Values and Justice

Published commentary by RAND staff: Democracy's Defense: Values and Justice in the Baltimore Sun.

Four Years After 9/11, War on Terror Slogs On

Published commentary by RAND staff: Four Years After 9/11, War on Terror Slogs On in the San Diego Union-Tribune.

Selecting for Security

The recent decision to conduct random searches of backpacks and packages carried by passengers on New York and Boston subways, commuter trains, and buses has provoked controversy. Americans want better security, but remain wary about how it is provided.

The Lessons of London

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Strategy: Political Warfare Neglected

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Can the Iraq Beast Be Tamed?

Published commentary by RAND staff.

The Men Who Pursued Paradise in Destruction

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Kidnappings in Iraq Strategically Effective

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Bin Laden and His Special Effects

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Iraq: Not Terrorist Central

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Semantics are Strategic in the War on Terror

Published commentary by RAND staff.

The Four Defensive Measures Against Terrorism

Today's terrorists kill in quantity and kill indiscriminately. Preparedness requires improving intelligence, increasing security, developing effective response capabilities, and community involvement.

The View from Ground Zero: Is America Safer?

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Looking for 'High Noon' in a Hundred Years' War

Published commentary by RAND staff.

World Becomes the Hostage of Media-Savvy Terrorists

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Don't Move Too Fast on Intelligence Reform

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Trains, Buses and Terror

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Bin Laden May Be Fishing for Allies on Europe's Secular Left

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Does Terrorism Work?

Published commentary by RAND staff.

'Axis of Evil' Versus 'Chain of Evil'

Published commentary by RAND staff.

From 'White' Christmas to 'Orange' Christmas

From 'white' Christmas to 'orange' Christmas

Killing bin Laden, et al, Is No Help

Today's emblem of terror is Osama bin Laden. If bin Laden were a fictional villain created by Hollywood, his death or capture would end the reign of terror he has visited upon the world. Al-Qaida would fold its tent. The violent jihad that bin Laden has endeavored to inspire and direct would fade away. And, as a result, the world would return to quieter and less threatening times.

Breach of Airline Security Is Nothing to Panic About

The arrest of Nathaniel T. Heatwole on charges of smuggling box cutters, bleach and matches aboard two commercial airliners reminds us that, despite significant improvements since Sept. 11, our security systems are not perfect. They never will be.

Connect the Cops to Connect the Dots

commentaries by RAND Staff: insightful commentaries on current events, published in newspapers, magazines and journals worldwide.

All Citizens Now First Responders

Published commentary by RAND staff.

What If We Don't Attack Iraq?

So-called allies have denounced U.S. plans to fight Saddam Hussein. Brian Michael Jenkins says they might not like the consequences of our inaction, either.

Countering al-Qaeda: The Next Phase in the War

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Fliers Have Reason to Jettison Jitters

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Put Brains Behind Airway Safety

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Get Used to It: Our Airports Are Vulnerable to Terrorism

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Face Terror with Better Spying, Not Moats of Fear

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Safeguarding the Skies

Published commentary by RAND staff.

This Time It Is Different

Published commentary by RAND staff.

A Confounding, Complex Tragedy

Without external assistance, Colombia cannot defeat the guerrilla-gangster Minotaur that consumes it. It is in our national interest to help. At the same time, it is necessary that we fully comprehend the harsh realities we and our Colombian allies face.

Disloyalty Feeds on Cash, Flesh and Thrills

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Terrorist Trials Serve U.S. Strategy

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Commercial Book

Plagues and Their Aftermath: How Societies Recover from Pandemics

In a concise, authoritative, and gripping telling, Brian Michael Jenkins provides an account of what kind of future the planet might be facing by looking at the world's long history of epidemics and discerning what was common about their aftermath.

Commentary

The Origin and Evolution of the RAND Corporation's Terrorism Databases: Defining and Building a New Field of Knowledge

Two pioneers in terrorism research recount their experiences, challenges, achievements, and lessons learned, exploring the evolution of databases about terrorist incidents, groups, individual attributes, and mindsets, with eyes on what might be next.

Journal Article

Commentary: Securing the Least Bad Outcome: The Options Facing Biden on Afghanistan

President Biden must decide whether to withdraw the remaining 2,500 U.S. troops from Afghanistan to meet a May 1 deadline. The consequences of the decision will decide the fate of Afghanistan and signal the U.S.' broader strategic intentions.

Testimony

The Collapse of Comity: Perilous Times in the Third Turbulent Century of Our Political Experiment

Testimony presented before the House Committee on Homeland Security on February 4, 2021.

Journal Article

The Atomization of Political Violence

The conclusion that terrorism is likely to persist at low levels does not preclude large-scale attacks. The present tumultuous state of the world and growing domestic extremism could produce dramatic changes in the future trajectory of political violence.

Journal Article

The Future Role of the U.S. Armed Forces in Counterterrorism

This essay provides observations on the future role of the armed forces in counterterrorism and the future role of counterterrorism forces in great power competition.

Report

Paths to Destruction: A Group Portrait of America's Jihadists — Comparing Jihadist Travelers with Domestic Plotters

In this report, the author examines hundreds of U.S. residents who have traveled or attempted to travel abroad to join or otherwise support terrorist organizations. The focus of the analysis is on the individuals' collective demographic profile.

Journal Article

Options for Dealing with Islamic State Foreign Fighters Currently Detained in Syria

This essay, which reflects the author's personal views, examines eight options and is intended to move the discussion beyond political bickering and wishful thinking.

Brochure

Waging War Beyond the Battlefield: Remarks at the Celebration of 50 Years at RAND

At an event commemorating his 50 years of service at RAND, Brian Michael Jenkins spoke about terrorism and the United States' response to it over the past several decades.

Commentary

Does the U.S. No-Concessions Policy Deter Kidnappings of Americans?

Based on research initiated in the 1970s, this paper questions whether a no-ransom policy can be shown to be an effective deterrent. It reviews recent research, some of which supports the earlier findings, but one study reaches a contrary conclusion.

Commentary

The Origins of America's Jihadists

Facing the threat of terrorism, the United States has devoted significant resources to preventing terrorist attacks. This Perspective identifies 86 plots and 22 actual attacks since 9/11 involving 178 planners and perpetrators.

Journal Article

Bush, Obama, And Trump: The Evolution Of U.S. Counterterrorist Policy Since 9/11

9/11 and the U.S response that followed profoundly affected America's political landscape and its culture, perhaps permanently.

Testimony

Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions: Addendum

Document submitted on July7, 2017, as an addendum to testimony before the House Committee on Armed Services on February 14, 2017.

Testimony

Middle East Turmoil and the Continuing Terrorist Threat — Still No Easy Solutions

Testimony presented before the House Committee on Armed Services on February 14, 2017.

Testimony

Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet: Addendum

Document submitted on January 11, 2017 as an addendum to testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee on September 21, 2016.

Journal Article

Think Mass Shootings Are Terrorism? Careful What You Wish For

Those arguing America needs a new domestic terrorism law haven't thought things through.

Journal Article

Nuclear Terrorism, the Last 40 Years: What Has and Has Not Happened

After the Cold War and nearly 70 years of waging war against communism, the United States and its key allies have adopted the war against terror as their new organizing principal.

Testimony

Fifteen Years After 9/11: A Preliminary Balance Sheet

Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee on September 21, 2016.

Commentary

A Saudi-Led Military Alliance to Fight Terrorism: Welcome Muscle in the Fight Against Terrorism, Desert Mirage, or Bad Idea?

Discusses Saudi Arabia's December 2015 announcement that it was creating a military alliance of Muslim-majority nations to fight terrorism, with a focus on how the United States should respond to the initiative.

Commentary

Do Significant Terrorist Attacks Increase the Risk of Further Attacks? Initial Observations from a Statistical Analysis of Terrorist Attacks in the United States and Europe from 1970 to 2013

RAND researchers examine whether a significant terrorist attack somehow inspires other terrorist attacks and whether analysis of historical attacks suggests that increases in terrorism can be anticipated in the shadow of a large attack.

Journal Article

A Revanchist Russia Versus an Uncertain West: An Appreciation of the Situation Since the 2014 Ukrainian Crisis

More than a generation has passed since the BerlinWall came down, the Soviet Union ceased to exist, and the contest between East and West that had lasted more than 40 years ended.

Testimony

Inspiration, Not Infiltration: Jihadist Conspirators in the United States

Testimony presented before the House Oversight and Governmental Reform Committee and Governmental Reform, Subcommittee on National Security and Subcommittee on Health Care, Benefits, and Administrative Rules on December 10, 2015.

Testimony

The Implications of the Paris Terrorist Attack for American Strategy in Syria and Homeland Security

Testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on November 19, 2015.

Testimony

The Dynamics of the Conflicts in Syria and Iraq and the Threat Posed by Homegrown Terrorists and Returning Western Fighters

Testimony submitted before the House Foreign Affairs Committee and House Homeland Security Committee on November 18, 2015.

Commentary

How the Current Conflicts Are Shaping the Future of Syria and Iraq

This essay examines how the dynamics of continuing conflicts will shape the future of Syria, Iraq, and the broader region. The conclusions point to a substantial gap between American national objectives and a realistic appreciation of the situation.

Report

War by What Means, According to Whose Rules? The Challenge for Democracies Facing Asymmetric Conflicts: Proceedings of a RAND–Israel Democracy Institute Workshop, December 3–4, 2014

Proceedings of a workshop aimed at developing new strategies to cope with asymmetric conflict in all its dimensions, including military operations, human rights, media, public opinion, political warfare, international diplomacy, and civil liberties.

Testimony

There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq: Addendum

Document submitted on April 17, 2015 as an addendum to testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on March 12, 2015.

Testimony

The Continuing Lure of Violent Jihad

Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee on March 24, 2015.

Testimony

Containing Middle East Terror: Measures to Reduce the Threat Posed By Foreign Fighters Returning from Syria and Iraq

Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Border and Maritime Security on March 17, 2015.

Testimony

There Will Be Battles in the Heart of Your Abode: The Threat Posed by Foreign Fighters Returning From Syria and Iraq

Testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on March 12, 2015.

Commentary

When Jihadis Come Marching Home: The Terrorist Threat Posed by Westerners Returning from Syria and Iraq

This Perspective seeks to examine the scope of the threat posed by Westerners who return to their homes after fighting in Syria and Iraq; what can be done to reduce the threat, and whether military action is necessary in combating it.

Report

The Future of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act

Recounts the proceedings of a conference to discuss recent RAND research on issues related to the potential reauthorization of the Terrorism Risk Insurance Act, as well as the varying implications of TRIA's expiration, modification, and extension.

Commentary

Brothers Killing Brothers: The Current Infighting Will Test al Qaeda's Brand

An attack by the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL) that killed the leader of a rival group led to the unprecedented expulsion of ISIL from al Qaeda, a break that could create intelligence and propaganda opportunities for the United States.

Commentary

The Dynamics of Syria's Civil War

This essay explores the dynamics of the Syrian conflict, including the characteristics and interests of the belligerents and foreign powers and the implications that the present course of events has for the future of Syria and the wider region.

Report

Identifying Enemies Among Us: Evolving Terrorist Threats and the Continuing Challenges of Domestic Intelligence Collection and Information Sharing

A summary of discussions by participants at a seminar on domestic intelligence and information sharing as these relate to terrorist threats.

Testimony

The Role of Terrorism and Terror in Syria's Civil War

Testimony presented before the House Foreign Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Terrorism, Nonproliferation, and Trade on November 20, 2013.

Testimony

The Threat of a Mumbai-Style Terrorist Attack in the United States

Testimony submitted before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence on June 12, 2013.

Commercial Book

When Armies Divide: The Security of Nuclear Arsenals During Revolts, Coups, and Civil Wars

This book examines the security of nuclear arsenals during revolts, coups, and civil wars.

Journal Article

An Incremental Tyranny

The author examines the way in which society adapted to terrorism over the years. What previous generations saw as extraordinary, the current generation accepts as normal.

Report

Aviation Security: After Four Decades, It's Time for a Fundamental Review

Budgetary constraints, heavy passenger loads, and popular hostility toward screening procedures are all challenges to securing commercial aviation. After 40 years of focus on tactical measures, it is time for a sweeping review of aviation security.

Testimony

New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat: Addendum

Document submitted on August 24, 2012 as an addendum to testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on July 11, 2012.

Testimony

New Challenges to U.S. Counterterrorism Efforts: An Assessment of the Current Terrorist Threat

Testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on July 11, 2012.

Report

Al Qaeda in Its Third Decade: Irreversible Decline or Imminent Victory?

A personal assessment of the status of al Qaeda now in its third decade.

Testimony

Is Al Qaeda's Internet Strategy Working?

Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Counterterrorism and Intelligence on December 6, 2011.

Testimony

Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy: Addendum

Document submitted on November 1, 2011 as an addendum to testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities, on June 22, 2011.

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 35, No. 2, Summer 2011

Stories discuss America after 9/11, Afghan-based solutions, Al Qaeda's narrative, air passenger security, victim compensation, military families, health insurance, entrepreneurship, unemployment, sex, Katrina families, Arab Spring, and a new RAND.

Report

Stray Dogs and Virtual Armies: Radicalization and Recruitment to Jihadist Terrorism in the United States Since 9/11

An examination of ''homegrown terrorism'' from 9/11 through 2010, highlighting lessons learned from terrorist events that suggest actions for the future, and a chronology of cases in the United States during that period.

Report

The Long Shadow of 9/11: America's Response to Terrorism

In a series of essays, this book addresses the question of how America has responded in the ten years since the 9/11 terrorist attacks and suggests options for more effectively dealing with the terrorist threat in the future.

Testimony

Al Qaeda After Bin Laden: Implications for American Strategy

Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Committee, Subcommittee on Emerging Threats and Capabilities on June 22, 2011.

Brochure

The Tenth Year: A Briefing on Terrorism Issues to New Members of the 112th Congress

On January 8, 2011, Brian Michael Jenkins briefed newly elected members of Congress on foreign policy, national security, and domestic issues, with a particular focus on domestic terrorism prevention and transportation security in the post-9/11 era.

Testimony

The al Qaeda-Inspired Terrorist Threat: An Appreciation of the Current Situation

Testimony presented before the Canadian Senate Special Committee on Anti-terrorism on December 6, 2010.

Testimony

No Path to Glory: Deterring Homegrown Terrorism

Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment on May 26, 2010.

Report

Would-Be Warriors: Incidents of Jihadist Terrorist Radicalization in the United States Since September 11, 2001

Intelligence collection by law enforcement and lack of community support have limited radicalization and recruitment to jihadist terrorism in the United States to 46 cases since 9/11, although 2009 saw a sharp increase in the number of cases.

Testimony

Going Jihad: The Fort Hood Slayings and Home-Grown Terrorism

Testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on November 19, 2009.

Report

Could Mexico Fail?

Suggests ways the U.S. could address concerns about the growing lawlessness in northern Mexico and its consequences for U.S. national security.

Testimony

Terrorists Can Think Strategically: Lessons Learned From the Mumbai Attacks

Testimony presented before the Senate Homeland Security and Governmental Affairs Committee on January 28, 2009.

Report

The Lessons of Mumbai

Analyzes the November 2008 terrorist attack in Mumbai, India, and derives lessons learned from the attack and from the Indian response.

Journal Article

Savage Struggle on the Border: Can Mexico Fail?

Discusses the possibilities and options for America if neighboring country Mexico should become a failed state.

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 32, No. 3, Fall 2008

The cover story offers 12 suggestions for the new U.S. president; other pieces discuss education and health in China and India, health policy models, the U.S. Postal Service mailbox monopoly, a green U.S. Army, and political reform in the Arab world.

Commercial Book

Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

Offering insights into vital questions of national security, presidential decisionmaking, and terrorist motives, world-renowned terrorism expert Brian Michael Jenkins examines how terrorists think about nuclear weapons and nuclear terror.

Testimony

Defining the Role of a National Commission on the Prevention of Violent Radicalization and Homegrown Terrorism

Testimony presented before the House Committee on Homeland Security, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing, and Terrorism Risk Assessment on June 14, 2007.

Testimony

Building an Army of Believers: Jihadist Radicalization and Recruitment

Testimony presented before the House Homeland Security Committee, Subcommittee on Intelligence, Information Sharing and Terrorism Risk Assessment on April 5, 2007.

Testimony

Basic Principles for Homeland Security

Testimony presented before the House Appropriations Committee, Subcommittee on Homeland Security on January 30, 2007.

Research Brief

Fear Cannot Counter Terror

This research brief summarizes an assessment of U.S. counterterrorism efforts, proposes strategic principles for defeating the enemy and for strengthening America, and emphasizes the need to maintain American values in the war on terror.

Report

Unconquerable Nation: Knowing Our Enemy, Strengthening Ourselves

The author presents an overview of U.S. progress in the war on terrorism, reviews the jihadists' operational code, offers strategic principles for defeating terrorists, and discusses what America must do to prevail in this struggle.

Report

The New Age of Terrorism

Offers a perspective on significant trends in terrorism over the past fourdecades.

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 30, No. 2, Summer 2006

The cover story warns that Americans have succumbed too much to fear, forsaking the things for which they are fighting; related essays discuss suicide attacks, lessons from Algeria, protection for emergency responders, and public health preparedness.

Report

Three Years After: Next Steps in the War on Terror

Three years after 9/11, the RAND Corporation held a conference to share results from recent terrorism studies with government officials, military officers, congressional staff, foundations and NGOs, foreign embassy representatives, and the public.

Testimony

Terrorism and the Security of Public Surface Transportation

Testimony presented to the Senate Committee on Judiciary on April 8, 2004.

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 28, No. 1, Spring 2004

Argues that new threats to national security represent fundamental changes in the ecology of conflict and that America's approach must evolve to meet the challenges; education, obesity, and wind tunnels in aeronautical research are also discussed.

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 27, No. 1, Spring 2003

Examines the debate regarding the safety and efficacy of ephedra; also covers contrasting lessons from different educational interventions, a "systems approach" to counterterrorism, domestic abuse, public health, and genetic manipulation.

Testimony

Remarks Before the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States

Testimony presented to the National Commission on Terrorist Attacks Upon the United States on March 31, 2003.

Report

Countering al Qaeda: An Appreciation of the Situation and Suggestions for Strategy

Next steps in the U.S. campaign to defeat al Qaeda and combat terrorism

Report

Deterrence and Influence in Counterterrorism: A Component in the War on al Qaeda

The U.S. counterterrorism strategy should include political warfare, placing at risk things the terrorists hold dear, a credible threat of force against states or groups that support acquisition of weapons of mass destruction, and maintaining cooperation with other nations engaged in the war on terror.

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 26, No. 2, Summer 2002

Surveys RAND research conducted since Sept. 11, 2001, that examines the dimensions of the terrorist threat and potential responses to it, and issues such as global priorities, oversees deployments, homeland security, and state and local initiatives.

Periodical

RAND Review: Vol. 25, No. 3, Fall 2001

Presents eight commentaries outlining complementary strategies for the long-term war against terrorism; also discusses how American arts organizations can adapt to shifting audiences and how improvements in depression care pay for themselves.

Testimony

Terrorism: Current and Long Term Threats

Testimony presented to the Senate Armed Services Subcommittee on Emerging Threats on November 15, 2001.

Report

Countering the New Terrorism

Traces the recent evolution of international terrorism against civilian and U.S. military targets, looks ahead to where terrorism is going, and assesses how it might be contained.

Report

Getting the Hostages Out: Who Turns the Key?

Examines the information current at the time about the seven American hostages held in Lebanon. The author discusses the identity and nature of the captors, and then focuses on the degree to which Iran can influence or control them.

Report

The Nicaraguan Resistance and U.S. Policy: Report on a May 1987 Conference

Presents the results of a 1987 RAND conference on the Nicaraguan Resistance and U.S. Policy Implications.

Report

The Possibility of Soviet-American Cooperation Against Terrorism

Reviews an unofficial meeting held in Moscow, January 23-27, 1989, at which scholars and journalists from the Soviet Union and the United States met to discuss cooperative action against terrorism.

Report

Terrorism: Policy Issues for the Bush Administration

This Note touches upon these questions as it addresses the policy issues that are likely to confront the Bush Administration.

Report

The Terrorist Threat to Commercial Aviation

Reviews the statistics on terrorist attacks — hijackings and sabotage — on commercial airliners since the first such hijacking involving an El Al plane in 1968.

Report

Nicaraguan Security Policy: Trends and Projections

Considers the security challenges that Nicaragua might pose to U.S. interests in Central America in the years ahead.

Report

Potential Threats to Offshore Platforms

Increasingly spectacular acts of terrorism have led to growing concern that terrorists will move beyond the symbols of society and directly attack its technological and industrial targets, including offshore oil platforms.

Report

The Threat of Nuclear Terrorism: A Reexamination

This study's primary concern is terrorist attacks against U.S. nuclear weapons systems in the United States or abroad. It first analyzes the motivations that might inspire various acts of nuclear terrorism.

Report

Should Our Arsenal Against Terrorism Include Assassination?

In a time of growing terrorist violence, assassination is sometimes mentioned as a countermeasure. This paper examines arguments for and against assassination as a means of combating terrorism.

Report

The Aftermath of the Achille Lauro

Discusses mistakes in diplomacy made by the U.S. government following the capture of the four hijackers of the Italian cruise ship, the Achille Lauro, and the subsequent demands for their extradition.

Report

Colombia's Bold Gamble for Peace

Colombia's recent rash of kidnappings and terrorism has given rise to government efforts to put an end to the guerrilla warfare and political violence that have plagued the country for twenty years.

Report

A Conceptual Framework for Analyzing Terrorist Groups

This report describes an analytical framework developed at RAND for studying the characteristics of terrorist groups and illustrates how that framework can be used to address broad questions about terrorists and their actions.

Report

The Future Course of International Terrorism

This paper considers the forms terrorism is likely to take in the near future, the levels of violence terrorists are likely to use, possible changes in terrorist tactics and their choice of targets, the future role of terrorism in armed conflict, and prob

Report

Future Trends in International Terrorism

This paper surveys likely future trends in international terrorism.

Report

International Terrorism: The Other World War

This report is intended to serve as a primer for Air Force officers who must gain a basic understanding of the phenomenon of terrorism.

Report

The Likelihood of Nuclear Terrorism

Discusses the likelihood that terrorists will detonate or threaten to detonate a nuclear device.

Report

Military Force May Not Be Ruled Out

This paper discusses options open to the United States in responding to two kinds of terrorism: "Ordinary" terrorism, committed by diverse terrorist groups, is the responsibility of the local government, and the U.S. response has been, and should rem...

Report

Combatting Terrorism Becomes a War

This paper discusses the implementation of the new National Security Directive signed by President Ronald Reagan on April 3, 1984.

Report

Improving the Means for Intergovernmental Communications in Crisis

Summarizes assessments of potential bilateral and multilateral measures for enhancing superpower stability in times of nuclear crisis.

Report

The Lessons of Beirut: Testimony Before the Long Commission

The volume of terrorist activity has increased in the last 15 years, terrorism has grown bloodier, and there is increasing use of terrorism by governments.

Report

Testimony Before the Committee on the Judiciary

This testimony reviews recent trends in terrorism worldwide, examines the terrorist threat in the United States, and briefly discusses some of the problems of intelligence and physical security against terrorist attacks.

Report

Trends in International Terrorism, 1982 and 1983

This report analyzes incidents recorded in The RAND Corporation's chronology of international terrorism for 1982 and 1983.

Report

U.S. Policy for Central America: A Briefing

This report looks at Central America in the light of U.S. foreign policy interests.

Report

A Chronology of Terrorist Attacks and Other Criminal Actions Against Maritime Targets

A list of terrorist incidents involving harbors, offshore platforms, and ships at sea.

Report

Let's Not Punish Ourselves for Beirut

Originally published in the Los Angeles Times, November 3, 1983.

Report

New Modes of Conflict

Building on past studies of terrorism and low-level conflict, this report attempts to describe how contemporary international terrorism fits into the broader scheme of armed conflict in general.

Report

A Review of Recent Trends in International Terrorism and Nuclear Incidents Abroad

Reviews trends in international terrorism and nuclear incidents abroad during 1980-1981.

Report

Some Reflections on Recent Trends in Terrorism

Presents a review of recent trends in terrorism and discusses possible future developments.

Report

Subnational Conflict in the Mediterranean Region

This paper reviews the patterns of conflict in the Mediterranean since World War II.

Report

Terrorism: Between Prudence and Paranoia

In an atmosphere of fear and alarm, extraordinary security precautions are being taken in the United States as a matter of prudence. That is what terrorism is really all about.

Report

The Appeal of Nuclear Crimes to the Spectrum of Potential Adversaries

This report presents the findings of the third phase of a RAND project on the potential threat to U.S. nuclear programs and facilities.

Report

Diplomats on the Front Line

A review of trends, tactics, and targets of terrorist attacks against diplomats since 1968, and some suggestions for areas in which international cooperation could help solve the problem.

Report

Intelligence Constraints of the 1970s and Domestic Terrorism: Volume I, Effects on the Incidence, Investigation, and Prosecution of Terrorist Activity

This Note addresses the question: To what extent did the post-Watergate intelligence "rules" affect law enforcement's ability to investigate and prosecute cases of domestic terrorism?

Report

Intelligence Constraints of the 1970s and Domestic Terrorism: Executive Summary

This report summarizes the conclusions of a study of constraints on intelligence activities in the investigation of terrorist or terrorist-related crimes in the United States.

Report

Talking to Terrorists

A discussion of the processes and problems of communicating with terrorists during diplomatic kidnapping incidents.

Report

Terrorism and Beyond : An International Conference on Terrorism and Low-Level Conflict

Terrorism and beyond : an International Conference on Terrorism and Low-Level Conflict

Report

Combatting Terrorism: Some Policy Implications

In this paper a strategy for combatting terrorism is outlined.

Report

Embassies Under Siege : A Review of 48 Embassy Takeovers, 1971-1980

A review of the 48 assaults made on embassies by terrorists and other militants between 1971 and 1980.

Report

Fighting Terrorism: An Enduring Task

Presents questions and answers from an interview with ADN-Kronos, an Italian news service, published in Il Messagero and later in the Washington Post.

Report

International Terrorism: Choosing the Right Target

The author addresses the question of "What really is the Soviet role in international terrorism?"

Report

Options for U.S. Policy on Terrorism

Summarizes the most policy-relevant findings and conclusions from nine years of RAND research on terrorism. The government faces complex issues in developing effective anti-terrorist policies and capabilities.

Report

The Psychological Implications of Media-Covered Terrorism

An expanded version of the author's presentation before an international seminar on Terrorism and the Mass Media held in Sicily, April 1981.

Report

A Strategy for Combatting Terrorism

A discussion of measures required to do something effective about terrorism. For the United States, the problem lies mainly outside its borders and there it is a very serious problem.

Report

Testimony Before the Senate Governmental Affairs Committee Regarding Senate Bill Against Terrorism, January 27, 1978

The author believes that terrorist tactics will persist as a mode of political expression, of gaining international attention, and of achieving limited political goals.

Report

Motivations and Possible Actions of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs

A report intended to help officials responsible for nuclear security to establish more effective systems for protecting against nuclear crimes, by drawing plausible inferences about actions and targets that adversaries are likely to prefer.

Report

Motivations and Possible Actions of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs: Executive Summary

A report intended to help officials responsible for nuclear security to establish more effective systems for protecting against nuclear crimes, by drawing plausible inferences about actions and targets that adversaries are likely to prefer.

Report

The Potential Criminal Adversaries of Nuclear Programs: A Portrait

Text of a speech describing perpetrators of potential criminal acts against nuclear programs in terms of their possible motivations, actions, methods, resources, and capabilities.

Report

The Study of Terrorism: Definitional Problems

The paper defines terrorism and cites examples of international terrorist events.

Report

Terrorism in the 1980s

Reviews terrorism in the 1970s and foresees its persistence in the 1980s.

Report

Terrorism in the United States

Surveys levels of terrorism in the United States and concludes that there does not appear to be a major terrorist threat in the United States at the present time.

Report

The Terrorist Mindset and Terrorist Decisionmaking: Two Areas of Ignorance

This paper identifies two areas of ignorance in the current study of the phenomenon of terrorism: how terrorists think and how terrorist groups make their decisions.

Report

Terrorists Seize Hostages in Arcadia, Laconia Commandos on Alert: A Scenario for Simulation in Negotiations with Terrorists Holding Hostages

Presents a scenario for simulation in negotiations with terrorists holding hostages.

Report

Traditions and Patterns of Vietnamese History

This essay, written in 1968, views U.S. involvement in terms of Vietnamese history.

Report

Attributes of Potential Criminal Adversaries of U.S. Nuclear Programs

Identifies and describes some of the critical attributes of groups or individuals who might carry out criminal actions against U.S. nuclear programs.

Report

The Fall of South Vietnam: Statements by Vietnamese Military and Civilian Leaders

A summary of extensive oral and written statements by twenty-seven former high-ranking South Vietnamese military officers and civilians on their perceptions of the causes of the collapse of South Vietnam in 1975.

Report

International Terrorism: Trends and Potentialities

Reviews recent trends in international terrorism. Terrorist tactics will persist as a mode of political expression even though no terrorist group has yet achieved its stated long-range goals. Bombing will probably remain the most common tactic.

Report

RAND's Research on Terrorism

Describes the origin, topics, and important findings on terrorism.

Report

Combatting International Terrorism: The Role of Congress

Coping with terrorism is not a matter of legislation. It is the ability to respond effectively to a new range of threats, and Congress can promote the development of the necessary instruments to combat terrorism.

Report

Heuristic Modeling Using Rule-Based Computer Systems

Discusses a recent effort to apply heuristic modeling techniques to the topic of international terrorism.

Report

Numbered Lives: Some Statistical Observations From 77 International Hostage Episodes

In the following pages we examine 77 international hostage incidents and make a number of observations that are pertinent to the formulation of policy and procedures for handling episodes.

Report

The Potential for Nuclear Terrorism

The possibility that criminals or political extremists might sabotage nuclear facilities, fabricate a nuclear explosive device, or disperse radioactive material has been the subject of numerous studies.

Report

U.S. Preparation for Future Low-Level Conflict

Reports a discussion of implications for U.S. security planning of small-scale crises and conflicts, held in October 1976 at RAND.

Report

Hostage Survival: Some Preliminary Observations

Describes observations on the experience of hostages held by terrorists, based on interviews with 40 former hostages, including American and foreign officials, businessmen kidnapped abroad, and private citizens kidnapped and held for ransom in the U.S.

Report

International Terrorism: A Chronology (1974 Supplement)

A chronological listing and description of incidents of international terrorism, prepared as a supplement to R-1597, International Terrorism: A Chronology, 1968-1974.

Report

Terrorism and the Nuclear Safeguards Issue

Terrorism for the most part is not mindless violence. Mass casualties do not serve the terrorists' goals and could alienate the population.

Report

High Technology Terrorism and Surrogate War: The Impact of New Technology on Low-Level Violence

While official war between nations seems increasingly impractical and unpopular, terrorism—violence for dramatic effect—is flourishing.

Report

Hostages and Their Captors: Friends and Lovers

Considers the question of why many hostages kidnapped by guerrillas and terrorists develop amiable relations and sometimes affection for the captors who may kill them.

Report

International Terrorism: A Chronology, 1968-1974

A chronology of incidents of international terrorism that took place between 1968 and 1974. Most of the material is based on press reports, although other sources were used.

Report

Will Terrorists Go Nuclear?

Testimony given before the California State Assembly Committee on Energy and Diminishing Materials regarding the possibility that terrorists might steal fissionable material or nuclear weapons, attack nuclear facilities, or create nuclear hoaxes.

Report

International Terrorism: A New Kind of Warfare

Terrorism is defined functionally as a campaign of violence designed to inspire fear, carried out by an organization, and devoted to political ends.

Report

Should Corporations Be Prevented from Paying Ransom?

Invited testimony for the California Assembly Judiciary and Criminal Justice committees on bills forbidding corporations and charitable trusts to pay ransom. Such bills are unlikely to accomplish their intended purpose of discouraging kidnappings.

Report

Soldiers Versus Gunmen: The Challenge of Urban Guerrilla Warfare

In the late 1960s, the world's revolutionaries moved from rural to urban guerrilla warfare. How have they fared in the first three years of the decade?

Report

Terrorism and Kidnapping

A discussion of the theory of terrorism, its utility and its effectiveness seen from the terrorists' point of view, the reason for terrorism's increase in the last few years, and some recent and possible future trends.

Report

Terrorism Works--Sometimes

What is terrorism? Who are the terrorists? What direction will terrorism take in the future? What will the consequences be? The author provides some insights into these four questions.

Report

After the War

Written as a report which might be filed from Saigon and Hanoi two years from now, a hypothetical scenario of what could happen in Vietnam between now and 1975. A political struggle continues after the ceasefire.

Report

''A Route for the Enemy To Escape,'' — Hanoi's View of the Ceasefire

Although Hanoi views American troop withdrawal as a

Report

Forecasting Vietnam's Future: The Next Stage in the War

How will the Vietnam war end — or not end? A clear-cut victory by either side seems unobtainable now.

Report

Giap and the Seventh Son

An essay written in April 1972 on General Giap and the North Vietnamese 1972 gamble for a telling victory.

Report

An Urban Strategy for Guerrillas and Governments

The author synthesizes a five-stage strategy by which urban guerrillas could take over a city, and suggests government countermeasures.

Report

Why the North Vietnamese Will Keep Fighting

Some factors explaining why the North Vietnamese will probably not abandon the war.

Report

The Five Stages of Urban Guerrilla Warfare: Challenge of the 1970s

Guerrilla strategy began in the country, but has moved to the city. To a degree, the urbanization of guerrilla warfare signals its failure in the countryside.

Report

A People's Army for South Vietnam: A Vietnamese Solution

A lack of men, money, and any firm guarantee that the U.S. Congress will continue, for very long, to provide funds to support South Vietnam's defense establishment at current levels makes it imperative for South Vietnam to reduce the economic...

Report

Structure and Strategy for Vietnam in the 1970's

Study views counterinsurgency in three levels of countertactics: police action; police protection from small squad and platoon-size guerrilla forces; and the containment, dispersal, and destruction of company and larger-size enemy units.

Report

The Unchangeable War

The Army's entire repertoire of warfare was designed for conventional war in Europe. In Vietnam, the Army simply performed its repertoire even though it was frequently irrelevant to the situation. This report explores these issues.

Report

Why the North Vietnamese Keep Fighting

The author concludes in this assessment of North Vietnamese war intentions that the arguments for continuing the struggle are too powerful to permit hopeful speculation over a North Vietnamese decision to quit the fight.