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Terrorism

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The Munich Olympics. The Lockerbie bombing. Oklahoma City. 9/11. London, Madrid, Mumbai. Terrorism is by no means a localized or recent phenomenon. Similarly, efforts to both catalog and counter terrorism, both at home and around the world, have been a key focus of RAND research since the early 1970s.

Commentary

Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?

Feb 19, 2018

Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.
Report

ISIL's Negative Economic Impacts on Iraq and Syria

Sep 13, 2017

The Islamic State reduced the GDP of cities under its control by 23 percent. The group was able to maintain stable conditions in parts of Mosul and Raqqah, but conditions elsewhere deteriorated under poor governance and an inability to defend its territory from military opposition.

Explore Terrorism

Commentary

The U.S. Designated the Revolutionary Guards as a Terrorist Group. What Happens Next?

The U.S. designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization was meant to serve America's interests by isolating Iran. Instead, it may increase the likelihood of a tit-for-tat escalation that will require significant resources to avoid a broader regional conflagration.

Apr 11, 2019
News Release

News Release

Countering Violent Extremism Programs May Gain Insights from Each Other

As countries around the world develop countering violent extremism (CVE) programs to prevent homegrown terrorism, there is a dearth of understanding about what types of such programs exist and which approaches are most effective. A new RAND Corporation report aims to help CVE program directors and policymakers in Australia place their efforts in context and identify promising approaches domestically and internationally.

Apr 4, 2019
Report

Countering Violent Extremism Programs May Gain Insights from Each Other

As countries around the world develop CVE programs to prevent homegrown terrorism, there is a dearth of understanding about what types of such programs exist and which approaches are most effective. Mapping CVE programs against goals and activity types could facilitate information exchange across countries.

Apr 4, 2019
Report

Terrorist Use of Cryptocurrencies

Counterterrorism finance strategies have reduced terrorist access to official currencies. Will terrorist groups therefore increase their use of digital cryptocurrencies? New ones have emerged, including some that claim to be more private and secure than Bitcoin, but they also have limitations that make them less viable.

Mar 27, 2019
Commentary

The Christchurch Massacre Was Another Internet-Enabled Atrocity

Terrorism has become an internet-enabled abuse—incited, propagated, and sometimes organized and concealed by online activity. Who should be held accountable for abusive content, the author or the publisher? And what role should the government play in regulating it?

Mar 20, 2019
Commentary

How Terrorist Groups Learn: Implications for al Qaeda

With the Islamic State losing the last of its territory, the global jihadist movement is now entering a new phase. The question on the minds of many is whether al Qaeda will be able to capitalize upon the moment and reclaim the dominant position as the most capable Sunni jihadist terrorist organization.

Mar 14, 2019
Commentary

Trump's Latest Move on Afghanistan Is a Repeat of Obama's

So far, both Presidents Obama and Trump have chosen “not to lose” in Afghanistan. As time goes on and the American public's patience grows shorter, this choice becomes more difficult.

Mar 11, 2019
Multimedia

Strategic Rethink: America's Security Deficit

The global security landscape is shifting dramatically. How can the United States protect itself in today's tumultuous world? This video provides an overview of findings from the second volume in RAND's Strategic Rethink series, which recommends a suite of options that could help policymakers ensure that resources remain aligned with strategic demands.

Mar 7, 2019
Commentary

Leaving ISIS Detainees in the Desert Doesn't Serve U.S. Interests

Leaving ISIS detainees in the desert may sound like an apt punishment, but it's dangerous. Repatriation and prosecution could help ensure ISIS volunteers don't scatter to other jihadist fronts.

Mar 5, 2019
Commentary

To Ensure Deradicalisation Programmes Are Effective, Better Evaluation Practices Must First Be Implemented

Given the increasing number of ISIS foreign fighters seeking re-entry into the UK, a better understanding of deradicalisation programs is essential. More robust and transparent evaluation processes for intervention programmes should be implemented before confidence in their effectiveness can be established.

Mar 4, 2019
Commentary

Don't Rush Into Afghan Peace

The Trump administration has reportedly offered to withdraw forces from Afghanistan if the Taliban stops fighting and opens negotiations with the government. If the Taliban agrees to a cease-fire and wider negotiations, it will be an accomplishment to celebrate. But it will be only the first step on a long and difficult road to peace.

Mar 1, 2019
Commentary

The U.S. Withdrawal from Syria Is an Opportunity for China

The U.S. withdrawal from Syria could allow Beijing to further assert its role as a key international partner in Syria and, by extension, further its interests in the Middle East. The extent of Sino-Syrian cooperation remains ambiguous but it has reportedly deepened, with China supplying intelligence personnel, strategic advisors, and special forces.

Feb 15, 2019
Commentary

A New Framework for Evaluating Counter Violent Extremism Projects

Gathering evidence in the area of counter violent extremism (CVE) is vital, given the increasing role for CVE interventions in the political and security environment. Evaluations of these interventions can play a role in growing this knowledge, by helping the CVE field itself to develop.

Feb 15, 2019
News Release

News Release

Terrorism Prevention Programs Need Strengthening If They Are to Be Effective

National capabilities for terrorism prevention, which refers to options other than traditional law-enforcement action to respond to the risk of individual radicalization to violence, are relatively limited. Most rely on local or non-government efforts, and only a subset receive federal support.

Feb 14, 2019
Research Brief

How to Strengthen Terrorism Prevention Efforts

Shortfalls in national terrorism prevention efforts have come not only from limited programmatic focus and resource investment, but also from critics seeking to constrain or halt such efforts. The most effective path for the U.S. government would be to support state, local, nongovernmental, and private terrorism prevention efforts rather than building capabilities itself.

Feb 14, 2019
Report

Report

Practical Terrorism Prevention: Reexamining U.S. National Approaches to Addressing the Threat of Ideologically Motivated Violence

Researchers examined past U.S. countering violent extremism and terrorism prevention efforts and explored options to strengthen them. They found that current capabilities are relatively limited and that future efforts must build trust to succeed.

Feb 14, 2019
Report

Report

Practical Terrorism Prevention: Executive Summary

Researchers examined past U.S. countering violent extremism and terrorism prevention efforts and explored options to strengthen them. This document summarizes findings from the main report.

Feb 14, 2019
Commentary

Terrorists on the Border and Government Secrecy

Detailed information on how many would-be terrorists may have sought to cross the southern border is being withheld on the grounds that it is sensitive. The refusal of officials to offer a fuller explanation of the numbers illustrates how the continued expansion of secrecy in government is damaging the ability of the public to assess the risk and evaluate the response.

Feb 13, 2019
Commentary

Hezbollah Is in Venezuela to Stay

Whatever the benefits of replacing the current Venezuelan regime with Washington's preferred alternative, Juan Guaidó, there's reason to doubt that it would change the country's problematic relationship with Hezbollah. Hezbollah is well-entrenched in Venezuela, where it has established a vast infrastructure for its criminal activities.

Feb 11, 2019
Commentary

Helping Lebanon Succeed Is More Than About Countering Iran

As tensions increase on the Israeli-Lebanese border the possibility is growing that a confrontation with Iran may move from Syria to Lebanon. For the United States, turning its back on this small but strategically critical country and conflating U.S. interests in Lebanon solely with countering Iran could be short-sighted, and a missed opportunity at a time when the region has few.

Jan 16, 2019

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