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Terrorism

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The Munich Olympics. The Lockerbie bombing. Oklahoma City. 9/11. London, Madrid, Mumbai. Terrorism is by no means a localized or recent phenomenon. Similarly, efforts to both catalog and counter terrorism, both at home and around the world, have been a key focus of RAND research since the early 1970s.

Commentary

Where Will ISIS Seek to Establish Its Next Safe Haven?

Feb 19, 2018

Many of ISIS's surviving fighters will seek out new battlefields to continue waging jihad. By coordinating with its allies around the globe, the U.S. could work to help alleviate the conditions that lead states to fail, making them less appealing as sanctuaries where terrorists can rest, rearm, and recuperate.
Report

ISIL's Negative Economic Impacts on Iraq and Syria

Sep 13, 2017

The Islamic State reduced the GDP of cities under its control by 23 percent. The group was able to maintain stable conditions in parts of Mosul and Raqqah, but conditions elsewhere deteriorated under poor governance and an inability to defend its territory from military opposition.

Explore Terrorism

Content

One Night with RAND

One Night with RAND is a special dinner and program that honors individuals who have made significant contributions in support of RAND's mission. This year, we'll pay tribute to Brian Michael Jenkins, a renowned expert on terrorism. [Santa Monica, CA]

Nov 8, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Evaluation in an Emerging Field: Developing a Measurement Framework for the Field of Counter-Violent-Extremism

This report seeks lessons from the evidence-based healthcare movement, which has a track record of using evaluation to develop practice, to consider what it might take to develop evaluation capacity in the emerging field of counter-violent-extremism.

Oct 12, 2018
Commentary

ISIS's New Plans to Get Rich and Wreak Havoc

Although the Islamic State has lost nearly 98 percent of the territory it once controlled, it is ripe for a comeback in Sunni-majority areas of Iraq and Syria. The group has proven that it is capable of making money even without controlling large population centers.

Oct 10, 2018
Commentary

The Power of Affiliates: Which Islamic State Franchise Could Become the Most Capable?

With the Islamic State's caliphate in ruins, one of its affiliates could grow to become even more deadly and operationally capable than the core organization was during its peak in 2015. With ISIS franchise groups and affiliates across the globe, there is no shortage of contenders to supplant ISIS as the world's most dangerous terrorist group.

Oct 9, 2018
Report

Preparing for Cybersecurity Threats to the 2020 Olympics

The Olympic Games are an attractive target for hackers. An examination of Japan's cybersecurity threat landscape and lessons from past events can help planners reduce cybersecurity risks in advance of the 2020 Tokyo Games.

Oct 4, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

Adaptation by Intelligent Adversaries to Defensive Measures: Framing Adaptation Options and Demonstrating Assessment of Attacker Preferences Using Proxy Intelligence Data

Addressing adaptation by adversaries and its implications for security planning requires understanding the ways attackers can respond to new defensive measures. This paper demonstrates an analysis of such preferences using open source data.

Oct 2, 2018
Commentary

Achieving the Trump Administration's National Biodefense Strategy

The Trump administration recently published its National Biodefense Strategy, which says that managing the risk of biological threats is in the “vital interest” of the United States, however they might present. The document provides a solid foundation, but more may be required to fully realize its goals and objectives.

Oct 2, 2018
Commentary

Why We Should Measure the Economic Impact of Terrorism in the Middle East

Though physical impacts of terrorism in the Middle East should be the main focus of counterterrorism efforts, financial impacts should not be ignored. Officials could help mitigate devastating economic effects by identifying and protecting essential regional revenue streams like tourism and oil.

Sep 24, 2018
Report

Report

Homeland Security National Risk Characterization: Risk Assessment Methodology

Presents a risk assessment methodology that can be used to identify the greatest risks to homeland security and support prioritization of U.S. Department of Homeland Security mission elements as part of DHS planning processes.

Sep 19, 2018
Research Brief

How to Reform Security Sector Assistance in Africa

U.S.-provided security sector assistance (SSA) in Africa has largely failed to achieve its goals. Substantial changes are required if SSA is to have the impact the United States intends. These changes need to be made in strategies, programs, and evaluations.

Sep 13, 2018
Report

Effects of U.S. Security Sector Assistance in Africa

U.S.-provided security sector assistance in Africa has had a mixed record since the Cold War. But when implemented along with peacekeeping operations, U.S. assistance has had a positive impact on outcomes like the incidence of civil wars, terrorist attacks, and state repression.

Sep 13, 2018
Report

Report

A Developmental Approach to Building Sustainable Security-Sector Capacity in Africa

In this report, RAND researchers analyze options and recommend changes to improve the sustainability of security sector assistance in African partner nations, deriving insights from the development community.

Sep 13, 2018
Multimedia

An Overview of Current Trends in Terrorism and Illicit Finance

An overview of testimony by Colin P. Clarke presented before the House Financial Services Committee, Subcommittee on Terrorism and Illicit Finance on September 7, 2018.

Sep 7, 2018
Testimony

Current Trends in Terrorist Financing

How do terrorists generate income? And how might ISIS, the wealthiest group in history, seek to use its funds to make a comeback? Terrorist financing has evolved, making it difficult to counter. But these efforts must continue to keep ISIS isolated from external patrons and state sponsors.

Sep 7, 2018
Report

Blaming Sunni-Shi'a Split for Middle East Unrest Is Too Simplistic

Policy decisions are being made based on the assumption that the Middle East is riven by a purely dualistic sectarian war between Sunni and Shi'a Muslims. While sectarianism is relevant, geopolitical competition, local disputes, and political rivalries are the core drivers of conflict in countries like Iraq and Syria.

Aug 30, 2018
Multimedia

Making Victory Count: Stabilizing Mosul

RAND researchers Shelly Culbertson and Linda Robinson visited Iraq nine months after the Battle of Mosul to gauge the progress being made in rebuilding and stabilizing the region. In the aftermath of combat operations against ISIS, what are the critical requirements for achieving lasting stability and the resumption of city life in Mosul?

Aug 22, 2018
Commentary

Walking a Fine Line on Russian Sanctions

The United States and its allies are increasingly frustrated over malign activities by Russia. This week the U.S. unveiled new sanctions, and is expected to impose even more in the future. But choosing sanctions requires care. Their purpose should be to penalize Russia for misbehavior, but not to isolate Russians.

Aug 22, 2018
Commentary

Approaching a 'New Normal': What the Drone Attack in Venezuela Portends

The attempt to assassinate Venezuelan President Maduro showed that drones are easy to use and difficult to defend against. Commercial off-the-shelf technology is easy to acquire. It is imperative that counterterrorism specialists begin planning a robust response to the threat.

Aug 13, 2018
Commentary

Is Nuclear Terrorism Distracting Attention from More Realistic Threats?

A nuclear terrorist attack is currently not a realistic threat. It would require an unprecedented level of sophistication from terrorists. The majority of terrorist attacks are conducted with conventional explosives.

Jul 27, 2018
Testimony

Testimony

The Challenges and the Benefits for U.S. National Security of Providing Foreign Assistance to Afghanistan: Addendum: Responses to Post-Hearing Questions for the Record

Document submitted June 28, 2018, as an addendum to testimony before the Senate Homeland Security and Government Affairs Committee, Subcommittee on Federal Spending Oversight and Emergency Management, on May 9, 2018.

Jun 29, 2018

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