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Terrorism Threat Assessment

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In light of the global increase in the number and lethality of terrorist attacks, it has become imperative that nations, states, and private citizens become more involved in a strategic vision to recognize, prepare for, and—if possible—prevent such events. RAND research and analysis has provided policymakers with objective guidance and recommendations to improve preparedness, international collaboration, response, and recovery to this global threat.

Report
Map of Online Violent Extremist Rhetoric Can Inform Counter-Efforts
An analysis of White identity terrorism and racially or ethnically motivated violent extremism discourse on social media finds that this content is largely created and fueled by users in the United States. A national strategy to counter these threats is needed.
Jun 7, 2022
Report
Implications of the Pandemic for Terrorist Interest in Biological Weapons
Some policymakers and analysts have expressed concern that weaknesses in responses to the COVID-19 pandemic will motivate terrorists to seek biological weapons. While the prospect of the Islamic State and al-Qaeda pursuing biological weapons is not zero, it is unlikely, given the difficulties involved and the availability of simpler alternatives.
May 31, 2022

Explore Terrorism Threat Assessment

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Preventing Domestic Violent Extremism: Insights from RAND Research
RAND researchers Pauline Moore, Todd Helmus, and Alexandra Evans discuss the complex challenges of countering domestic violent extremism in the United States. Their research offers insights into trends, key actors in the extremist community, and factors that lead to joining or leaving extremist groups.
Nov 30, 2023
Commentary
The Israel-Hamas War Has Upended the Terrorist Threat Matrix
Today's terrorist threat matrix seems more like an abstract expressionist painting. To those accustomed to traditional landscapes, it is difficult to discern what it depicts. The fighting in Gaza may well provoke terrorist repercussions beyond the region, the magnitude and shape of which will depend on the course of the conflict.
Nov 22, 2023
Report
Industry and Government Collaboration on Security Guardrails for AI Systems: Summary of the AI Safety and Security Workshops
These conference proceedings capture the industry and government perspectives emerging from a series of workshops in 2023 to inform policymakers and the broader public discussion about artificial intelligence safety and security.
Oct 31, 2023
Commentary
The Drivers of and Outlook for Russian-Iranian Cooperation
Russia and Iran's recent cooperation regarding Ukraine has raised concerns that the once wary partners might be moving toward a more comprehensive, strategic alliance. Such a prospect could have significant consequences for the United States' ability to safeguard its interests in the Middle East.
Oct 4, 2023
Commentary
How to Put RAND Findings on Veteran Support for Extremism in Context
A RAND survey found that U.S. veterans appeared to support extremist groups at a rate lower than the general population. In contrast, a new University of Maryland study found that veteran status was the most prominent characteristic among extremists involved in terrorism attacks with four or more victims.
Sep 11, 2023
Commentary
The Promise—and Pitfalls—of Researching Extremism Online
How big of a problem is extremism in the United States and around the world? Is it getting worse? Are social media platforms responsible, or did the internet simply reveal existing trends? We have few answers because this research is easy to do poorly and hard to do well.
Jul 17, 2023
Report
How Violent Extremists Behave Online
Exploitation of the internet by violent extremists is as old as the technology itself. But ideologically motivated violent extremism (IMVE) actors generally, and especially in online spaces, have been adapting to and adopting the evolving technological landscape in more sophisticated ways.
Jun 28, 2023
Report
Terrorism Net Assessment
In this report, the authors offer a preliminary conception of how to determine the capabilities the United States needs to remain safe from international terrorism.
May 2, 2023
Report
Independent Review of the Homeland Security Grant Program Terrorism Risk Formula and Data
Researchers evaluated the Federal Emergency Management Agency's terrorism risk formula, which considers threat, vulnerability, and consequences of terrorist attacks for allocating resources to the Homeland Security Grant Program.
Apr 19, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: State Motivations and Future Trends
The authors used quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia to examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.
Mar 9, 2023
Report
Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Overarching Findings and Recommendations
This report synthesizes the findings and recommendations from two companion reports on intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.
Mar 9, 2023
Commentary
The Intelligence Community Doesn't Warn About All Attacks Against the U.S. Homeland. Why Not?
Targets for foreign threats against the United States increasingly include entities that are not part of the U.S. government or military. But too many of these potential victims are unaware of threats against them, are not warned with intelligence reporting about such threats, and lack information about options to protect themselves.
Oct 21, 2022
Commentary
Harnessing the Power of Science and Technology Communities for Crisis Response
In this Perspective, RAND researchers describe how the U.S. Department of Homeland Security could leverage science and technology communities to support the use of science, technology, innovation, and analytical capabilities during crisis response.
Sep 19, 2022
Research Brief
A U.S. National Strategy Is Needed to Counter Violent Extremism
Users in the United States are overwhelmingly responsible for racially and ethnically motivated violent extremism (REMVE) discourse online. Strategies that focus on organizations or individuals likely will not work to counter REMVE because the movement is diffuse and leaderless.
Aug 22, 2022
Commentary
After the al-Zawahiri Strike, the U.S. May Lack Capabilities in Afghanistan
The U.S. drone strike that killed al Qaida leader Ayman al-Zawahiri in Afghanistan took out one of the last remaining key figures behind the 9/11 terror attacks. But it also highlighted how little the United States got out of its 2020 bargain with the Taliban, and raised questions about the U.S. ability to adequately monitor the developing threat from this quarter going forward.
Aug 3, 2022
Tool
Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: An Interactive Tool
This interactive tool uses a dynamic forecasting model to project future demand for U.S. ground forces. The resulting forecasts can help inform U.S. military decisions regarding future force planning, posture, and investments.
Jul 6, 2022
Report
Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: Assessing Future Trends in Armed Conflict and U.S. Military Interventions
This report identifies potential future demands for U.S. ground forces under different scenarios, including size, location, and capabilities, to inform Army decisions regarding future force planning, posture, and investments.
Jul 6, 2022
Commentary
States Have Leading Role to Play in Preventing Mass Shootings
As the United States grapples with how to prevent mass shootings, state governments might be best positioned to take the lead on long-term, sustainable efforts that prevent targeted violence.
Jun 13, 2022

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