Raymond Kuo

@Kuorum1 on Twitter

Senior Political Scientist

Off Site Office

Education

Ph.D. in politics, Princeton University; M.S. in international relations, London School of Economics and Political Science; B.A. in college of social studies, Wesleyan University

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

To arrange an interview, contact the RAND Office of Media Relations at (310) 451-6913, or email media@rand.org.

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Overview

Raymond Kuo is the inaugural director of the RAND Corporation's Taiwan Policy Initiative and a senior political scientist at RAND. He is an expert in international security, international order, and East Asia.

He published two books in 2021: Following the Leader (Stanford University Press) on military alliances and Contests of Initiative (Westphalia-GMU Press) on China's maritime gray zone strategy. His other research has appeared in International Security, the Journal of Conflict Resolution, The National Interest, the Diplomat, and other outlets.

Kuo was a tenure-track professor at Fordham University and the University at Albany, SUNY. He previously worked for the United Nations, the National Democratic Institute, and the Democratic Progressive Party (Taiwan). He holds a Ph.D. in politics from Princeton University.

Research Focus

Previous Positions

Assistant Professor, Fordham University; Assistant Professor, University at Albany-SUNY; Program Officer, National Democratic Institute; Consultant, United Nations; Foreign Policy Analyst, Democratic Progressive Party (Taiwan)

Selected Publications

Raymond Kuo, Following the Leader: International Order, Alliance Strategies, and Emulation., Stanford University Press, 2021

Raymond Kuo, Contests of Initiative: Confronting China’s Gray Zone Maritime Strategy, George Mason University-Westphalia Press, 2021

Raymond Kuo, Brian Blankenship, "Deterrence and Restraint: Do Joint Military Exercises Escalate Conflict?" Journal of Conflict Resolution, 66(1), 2022

Raymond Kuo, "Secrecy among Friends: Covert Military Alliances and Portfolio Consistency," Journal of Conflict Resolution, 64(1), 2020

Raymond Kuo, "Communal Violence and Economic Migration in Pakistan," International Migration, 57(5), 2019

Raymond Kuo, "Evolution and Territorial Conflict," International Security, 39(3), 2014

Raymond Kuo, "Occupation and the Just War," International Relations, 22(3), 2008

Liza Steele, Raymond Kuo, "Terrorism in Xinjiang?" Ethnopolitics, 6(1), 2007

Languages

Mandarin; French; Arabic

Recent Media Appearances

Interviews: CBS News; The Diplomat; KPCC-FM AirTalk; KYMN; Sky News Australia; TaiwanPlus

Commentary

Taiwan

'Strategic Ambiguity' May Have U.S. and Taiwan Trapped in a Prisoner's Dilemma
For its proponents, the idea of strategic ambiguity seems to have become an end in itself that has not adapted, and logically cannot adapt to the disruptive growth in Beijing's military power. The conditions under which the policy worked seem to have evaporated with China's rise. Strategic clarity may offer a way out of this dilemma.
Jan 18, 2023
Foreign Policy
Russia

Should Ukraine Settle with Russia?
Should the United States humiliate Russia—and Russian President Vladimir Putin specifically—over the Russo-Ukrainian War? It could lead to escalation and new wars, but the United States and NATO may need to think twice before offering concessions.
Jun 22, 2022
RealClearDefense
Taiwan

The Counterintuitive Sensibility of Taiwan's New Defense Strategy
As the United States prepares to deter China from attacking Taiwan and defend it from an attack, are the Taiwanese themselves doing everything they can to defend their territory?
Dec 6, 2021
War on the Rocks

Publications

Report
Development as a Tool of Economic Statecraft: A Net Assessment of U.S. and Chinese Approaches
The authors conduct a net assessment of U.S. and Chinese approaches to development assistance and cooperation, using a data-driven comparison to reveal opportunities for the United States to better compete with China in the developing world.
Oct 23, 2023
Report
Simulating Chinese Gray Zone Coercion of Taiwan: Identifying Redlines and Escalation Pathways
This paper shares the results of an exercise hosted by the RAND Corporation to explore the risk of escalation from Chinese activities in the gray zone to conventional war. The results showed an overall low risk of Taiwanese escalation.
Jun 22, 2023
Report
Can the United States Deter Threats from Uncertain Origins? Examining the Cases of Havana Syndrome, SolarWinds, and the Chinese Mafia
This report examines how to deter a national security threat when the threat, the underlying method, and the actor behind the threat are not understood with certainty.
May 11, 2023
Report
Leveraging diversity for military effectiveness: Diversity, inclusion and belonging in the UK and US Armed Forces
This study examines opportunities for leveraging diversity to enhance military effectiveness. A framework is presented to help guide the UK and US Armed Forces in their assessments of how diversity may be better leveraged in future.
Aug 23, 2022

Quoted

[South Korea's] naval and air forces, in particular, could serve in a variety of non-combat roles, including intelligence, surveillance and reconnaissance; demonstrations of presence; and logistics and support. Overall, trilateral cooperation will bolster deterrence against China, not just in case of Taiwan, but more generally…Trilateral cooperation is therefore a key component of a wider U.S. strategy to solidify security and other networks in Asia.
Source: South China Morning Post
The more-supported and more–forward positioned U.S. forces are or can get, the greater the deterrent effect. And allies are crucial to both those efforts. Prepositioned stockpiles, established access and basing agreements, and surge-capable operational and logistics coordination—having all this in place and practiced before any conflict erupts will enhance the lethality and sustainability of all U.S. and partner military forces.
Source: South China Morning Post

A Toolkit for Community-Police Dialogue

Crime-Free Housing Policies Increase Evictions in Minority and Low-Income Neighborhoods, but Do Not Lead to Reductions in Crime

South Korea's Surprisingly Successful China Policy

Deterrence of North Korean Limited Nuclear Attacks

The Safety and Security of the U.S. Maritime Environment

The Policy Currents Podcast

Developing Strategies for Summer Learning

Improving Psychological Wellbeing and Work Outcomes in the UK

Planning for the Rising Costs of Dementia

Helping Coastal Communities Plan for Climate Change

Raymond Kuo

Education

Media Resources

Overview

Research Focus

Previous Positions

Selected Publications

Languages

Recent Media Appearances

Commentary

'Strategic Ambiguity' May Have U.S. and Taiwan Trapped in a Prisoner's Dilemma

Should Ukraine Settle with Russia?

The Counterintuitive Sensibility of Taiwan's New Defense Strategy

Publications

Development as a Tool of Economic Statecraft: A Net Assessment of U.S. and Chinese Approaches

Simulating Chinese Gray Zone Coercion of Taiwan: Identifying Redlines and Escalation Pathways

Can the United States Deter Threats from Uncertain Origins? Examining the Cases of Havana Syndrome, SolarWinds, and the Chinese Mafia

Leveraging diversity for military effectiveness: Diversity, inclusion and belonging in the UK and US Armed Forces

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