Andrew R. Morral

Photo of Andrew Morral
Senior Behavioral Scientist
Washington Office


Ph.D. in psychology, New School for Social Research

Media Resources

This researcher is available for interviews.

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Andrew R. Morral is a senior behavioral scientist at the RAND Corporation and leader of Gun Policy in America, a RAND initiative to understand the effects of gun policies. His research expertise includes program evaluation, modeling and simulation, survey research, and performance measurement. He has developed innovative techniques for examining drug use epidemiology and survey response accuracy, and causal modeling software that is now in wide distribution. In addition to his gun policy work, his recent research includes an evaluation of the prevalence and characteristics of sexual assault against members of the U.S. military, an evaluation of the Israel Police, an assessment of the validity of the primary aviation system terrorism risk model used by the U.S. Transportation Security Administration, and two studies of the deterrence benefits attributable to counterterrorism security systems. Morral has published dozens of peer-reviewed reports in leading scientific and policy journals, and has served as a science advisor to the National Institute of Occupational Safety and Health, to the Department of Homeland Security's (DHS) Center for Risk and Economic Analysis of Terrorist Events, and to the DHS Chemical Facility Anti-Terrorism Standards program. Morral received his Ph.D. in psychology from the New School for Social Research.

Recent Projects

  • Gun Policy in America: A RAND Initiative
  • Sexual assault and harassment in the US Armed Forces
  • Improving the performance of the Israel Police
  • Deterrence in counterterrorism security
  • Modeling terrorism risk to the air transportation system

Selected Publications

Ramchand, R., MacDonald, J, Haviland, A., and Morral, A.R., "A developmental approach for measuring the seriousness of crimes," Journal of Quantitative Criminology, 25, 2009

Ramchand R, Morral AR, Becker K., "Seven-year life outcomes of adolescent offenders in Los Angeles," American Journal of Public Health, 5, 99

Morral, Andrew R., Gore, Kristie L., Schell, Terry L., Sexual Assault and Sexual Harassment in the US Military, Volumes 1-4, RAND (RR-870), 2015

Jessica Saunders, Steven W. Popper, Andrew R. Morral, Robert C. Davis, Claude Berrebi, Kristin J. Leuschner, Shira Efron, Boaz Segalovitz, K. Jack Riley, Effective Policing for 21st-Century Israel, RAND (RR-287/1), 2014

Morral, Andrew "Can the benefits of counterterrorism security be estimated validly?" in Jackson, BA, LaTourrette T, Chan, EW, Lundberg, R, Morral, AR, Frelinger, DR, Efficient Aviation Security, RAND (MG-1220), 2012

Andrew R. Morral, Carter C. Price, David S. Ortiz, Bradley Wilson, Tom LaTourrette, Blake W. Mobley, Shawn McKay, Henry H. Willis, Modeling Terrorism Risk to the Air Transportation System: An Independent Assessment of TSA’s Risk Management Assessment Tool and Associated Methods., RAND (MG-1241-TSA), 2012

Andrew R. Morral, Henry H. Willis, Peter Brownell, Measuring Illegal Border Crossing Between Ports of Entry: An Assessment of Four Promising Approaches., RAND (OP-328-OSD), 2011

Honors & Awards

  • 2015 President's Award, Michael Rich, President and CEO of RAND


  • Sign that reads No Firearms Allowed on School Property

    How to Bring Facts into the Gun Policy Debate

    As debate continues to rage over the causes and prevention of gun violence, it's worth asking how science can help lawmakers and the public resolve longstanding disagreements that have stood in the way of solutions.

    Mar 9, 2018 USA Today

  • The first U.S. Customs and Border Protection unmanned aerial vehicle in 2004.

    Improving DHS Accountability for Acquisitions

    While management at the Department of Homeland Security progressed in many areas during the past decade, there is still plenty of room for growth and improvement, especially in the area of acquisition management.

    Apr 22, 2014 The RAND Blog

  • A Hellenic Air Force Canadair CL-415 drops water over a forest fire northeast of Athens in August 2009

    Investing in Firefighting

    While the U.S. Forest Service has not completely agreed with RAND's proposal to transition to a fleet dominated by water-dropping scooper aircraft for fighting fires, they have leased one CL-415 scooper aircraft. It might be more cost-effective for the USFS to simply purchase it outright.

    Dec 30, 2013 The Orange County Register

  • Migrant workers load cucumbers into a truck in Blackwater, Virginia

    Is Enforcement Key to Fixing America's Immigration System?

    The current debate regarding comprehensive immigration reform offers an opportunity to redesign the worksite immigration enforcement system to achieve more efficient enforcement with better intelligence on where undocumented workers are employed, say Andrew Morral and Peter Brownell.

    Feb 15, 2013 CNN

  • A Glock 22 pistol is displayed at the Rocky Mountain Guns and Ammo store in Parker, Colorado, July 24, 2012

    Firearms and Gun Control: Many Questions, Some Answers

    President Obama's task force on gun violence has raised the stakes in the policy debate on gun control and policy in the wake of the recent shootings in Colorado and Connecticut. Some of RAND's top researchers share what is, and what isn't, known about firearms and gun control.

    Jan 17, 2013 The RAND Blog

  • Focus on the Worst Ex-Cons and Boost Community-Based Rehab

    Focus on the Worst Ex-Cons and Boost Community-Based Rehab in Riverside Press-Enterprise

    May 27, 2007 Riverside Press-Enterprise