David Powell

Senior Economist; Professor, Pardee RAND Graduate School

Off Site Office

Education

Ph.D. in economics, Massachusetts Institute of Technology; B.A. in applied mathematics, Harvard University

Overview

David Powell is a senior economist at the RAND Corporation and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. His areas of expertise include public finance, health economics, labor economics, and econometrics.

Powell's research examines shifts in the opioid crisis, the effects of tax policy on labor supply and health care decisions, and the role of health insurance benefit design. He has also developed methods to estimate quantile treatment effects and extended the use of synthetic control methods.

Powell earned his Ph.D. in economics from the Massachusetts Institute of Technology.

Research Focus

Selected Publications

David Powell and Seth Seabury, "Medical Care Spending and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Workers' Compensation Reforms," American Economic Review, 108(10), 2018

Abby Alpert, Bill Evans, Ethan Lieber, and David Powell, "Origins of the Opioid Crisis and Its Enduring Impacts," The Quarterly Journal of Economics, 137(2), 2022

David Powell, "Quantile Treatment Effects in the Presence of Covariates," Review of Economics and Statistics, 102(5), 2020

Nicole Maestas, Kathleen J. Mullen, and David Powell, "The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity," American Economic Journal: Macroeconomics, 2022 (forthcoming)

Abby Alpert, David Powell, and Rosalie Liccardo Pacula, "Supply-Side Drug Policy in the Presence of Substitutes: Evidence from the Introduction of Abuse-Deterrent Opioids," American Economic Journal: Economic Policy, 10(4), 2018

David Powell and Dana Goldman, "Disentangling Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection in Private Health Insurance," Journal of Econometrics, 222(1), 2021

David Powell, "Does Labor Supply Respond to Transitory Income? Evidence from the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008," Journal of Labor Economics, 38(1), 2020

David Powell, "Synthetic Control Estimation Beyond Comparative Case Studies: Does the Minimum Wage Reduce Employment?" Journal of Business & Economic Statistics, 2021

Commentary

Opioids

Opioids and a Crisis of Unintended Consequences
The pain medicine OxyContin was reformulated in 2010 to make it more difficult to crush or dissolve. But this had unintended consequences, including a rise in hepatitis C infections as drug abusers switched from taking OxyContin to injecting heroin.
Feb 20, 2019
The Hill

Publications

Journal Article
Trends in Out-of-Pocket Costs for Naloxone by Drug Brand and Payer in the US, 2010–2018
The findings suggest that the out-of-pocket cost of naloxone has been an increasingly substantial barrier to naloxone access for uninsured patients, a population that constitutes nearly one-fifth of adults with opioid use disorder.
Oct 27, 2022
Journal Article
Do Temporary Workers Experience Additional Employment and Earnings Risk After Workplace Injuries?
We find large and persistent earnings and employment losses after workplace injury for temporary workers over and above losses for direct-hire workers at the same job. Workers' compensation benefits reduce, but do not eliminate, this income loss.
Oct 19, 2022
Journal Article
Changes in Buprenorphine and Methadone Supplies in the US During the COVID-19 Pandemic
This cross-sectional study found that the per capita supply of methadone declined significantly in the second quarter of 2020 and had not returned to 2019 levels as of June 2021. The per capita supply of buprenorphine increased during the same period.
Sep 30, 2022
Journal Article
Care Preferences in Physician Orders for Life Sustaining Treatment in California Nursing Homes
Physician Orders for Life-Sustaining Treatment (POLST) facilitates documentation and transition of patients' life-sustaining treatment orders across care settings. We describe the orders within POLST among all nursing home residents in California from 2011 to 2016.
Mar 16, 2022
Journal Article
Moving Beyond the Classic Difference-In-Differences Model: A Simulation Study Comparing Statistical Methods for Estimating Effectiveness of State-Level Policies
Researchers conducted an extensive simulation study to compare the statistical performance of commonly used methods for evaluating state-level opioid policies, including popular difference-in-differences methods.
Dec 15, 2021
Draft
Understanding the Demographics of the Opioid Overdose Death Crisis
Examines overdose trends during the opioid crisis relative to historical disparities and evaluate the role of OxyContin's launch in explaining these trends.
Nov 1, 2021
Journal Article
Population-Based Estimates of Geographic Accessibility of Medication for Opioid Use Disorder by Substance Use Disorder Treatment Facilities from 2014 to 2020
This cross-sectional study of substance use disorder treatment facilities examined the national share of facilities that offer medication treatment for opioid use disorder (MOUD) and population-based measures of geographic accessibility of facilities offering MOUD.
Oct 22, 2021
Journal Article
Synthetic Control Estimation Beyond Comparative Case Studies: Does the Minimum Wage Reduce Employment?
A synthetic control estimator is generalized to estimate parameters associated with multiple discrete or continuous explanatory variables, which are then applied to study the disemployment effects of the minimum wage.
Oct 1, 2021
Draft
The Labor Supply Consequences of the Opioid Crisis
Uses the introduction of OxyContin and geographic variation in its launch to study the labor supply consequences of the opioid crisis.
Jul 9, 2021
Journal Article
Does Marijuana Legalization Affect Work Capacity? Evidence from Workers' Compensation Benefits
We study the effect of state recreational marijuana laws on workers' compensation benefit receipt among adults 40–62 years old.
Mar 23, 2021
Journal Article
The Evolving Consequences of OxyContin Reformulation on Drug Overdoses
In this paper, we find that over a longer time horizon, OxyContin reformulation stimulated illicit drug markets to grow and evolve.
Mar 17, 2021
Journal Article
Is the Rise in Illicit Opioids Affecting Labor Supply and Disability Claiming Rates?
Researchers examined how increased use of illicit opioids such as heroin and fentanyl affected labor market participation and claims for disability insurance.
Mar 10, 2021
Journal Article
Individual and Community Factors Associated with Naloxone Co-prescribing Among Long-term Opioid Patients: A Retrospective Analysis
This retrospective analysis examines naloxone co-prescribing in the general population and assess how co-prescribing varies by individual and community characteristics.
Feb 19, 2021
Journal Article
POLST Completion and Continuity in California Nursing Homes
We used MDS 2011–2016 linked to California Section S to describe POLST completion, cardiopulmonary resuscitation and do not resuscitate orders, invalid POLST documents, and switches in POLST content across the population of California NH residents.
2021
Journal Article
Disentangling Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection in Private Health Insurance
This study disentangled the effects of moral hazard from health plan selection. Our estimates imply that 53% of the additional medical spending observed in the most generous plan in our data relative to the least generous is due to adverse selection.
Sep 24, 2020
Journal Article
The State of the Science in Opioid Policy Research
The rigor of study design varies notably across policy categories, highlighting the need for broader adoption of rigorous methods in opioid policy research.
Jul 7, 2020
Journal Article
How Increasing Medical Access to Opioids Contributes to the Opioid Epidemic: Evidence from Medicare Part D
The national growth in opioid supply explains 75% of the national rise in opioid treatment admissions and the diversion component is a critical driver of the opioid epidemic.
Jun 26, 2020
Journal Article
When Is a Match Sufficient? A Score-based Balance Metric for the Synthetic Control Method
In this study, we present metrics to help analysts determine whether they have a good enough match to conduct causal inference using synthetic control method.
2020
Research Brief
The American Working Conditions Survey Finds That Nearly Half of Retirees Would Return to Work
According to the American Working Conditions Survey, more older workers report having meaningful work compared with their prime-age counterparts, and nearly half of retirees would return to work under the right conditions.
Nov 12, 2019
Journal Article
Association Between State Laws Facilitating Pharmacy Distribution of Naloxone and Risk of Fatal Overdose
Although many states have passed some type of law affecting naloxone availability, only laws allowing direct dispensing by pharmacists appear to be useful. Communities in which access to naloxone is improved should prepare for increases in nonfatal overdoses and link these individuals to effective treatment.
May 22, 2019
Journal Article
A Transitioning Epidemic: How The Opioid Crisis Is Driving The Rise In Hepatitis C
The 2010 reformulation of Oxycontin to prevent abuse of the drug (by making it crush-proof and therefore impossible to dissolve in liquid) had the unintended effect of driving some users to switch to heroin, which contributed to a dramatic rise in Hepatitis C.
Mar 13, 2019
Journal Article
Origins of the Opioid Crisis and Its Enduring Impacts
In this paper, we examine the role of the 1996 introduction and marketing of OxyContin as a potential leading cause of the opioid crisis.
2019
Draft
The Value of Working Conditions in the United States and Implications for the Structure of Wages
Documents variation in working conditions among workers in the United States, presents new estimates of how workers value these conditions, and assesses the impact of working conditions on estimates of the wage structure and inequality.
Dec 28, 2018
Journal Article
Supply-Side Drug Policy in the Presence of Substitutes: Evidence from the Introduction of Abuse-Deterrent Opioids
The recent increase in heroin deaths is primarily fueled by the reformulation of OxyContin.
Nov 1, 2018
Draft
Imperfect Synthetic Controls: Did the Massachusetts Health Care Reform Save Lives?
Recommends a two-step synthetic control method which allows for estimation of a specification with interactive fixed effects which nests more traditional additive fixed effects models.
May 16, 2018
Journal Article
Do Medical Marijuana Laws Reduce Addictions and Deaths Related to Pain Killers?
States that provide legal access to marijuana through dispensaries experience lower treatment admissions for addiction to pain medication.
Mar 1, 2018
Journal Article
A Supply-Side Perspective on the Opioid Crisis
In dealing with the opioid crisis, supply-side policies that consider the full market (both prescription opioids as well as heroin and fentanyl), if coupled with effective treatment, are likely to be the most effective.
Mar 1, 2018
Report
Comparing Ex-Servicemember and Civilian Use of Unemployment Insurance
Drawing from a data set with unemployment compensation for ex-service members and unemployment insurance claims from 2002 to 2012, this report provides a first portrait of the job search process of ex-service members relative to that for civilians.
Feb 8, 2018
Tool
Costs and Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Motor Vehicle–Related Injuries and Deaths: Supplement to Tool Documentation
This report documents the update of an online tool to help assess costs and effectiveness of implementing up to 14 interventions and select those most effective in reducing death and injury from motor vehicle crashes for a given budget.
Feb 2, 2018
Tool
Motor Vehicle Prioritizing Interventions and Cost Calculator for States (MV PICCS)
The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention's updated interactive Motor Vehicle Prioritizing Interventions and Cost Calculator for States can help state decisionmakers prioritize motor vehicle injury-prevention interventions.
Feb 2, 2018
Tool
The American Working Conditions Survey Data: Codebook and Data Description
This codebook describes the content and structure of the American Working Conditions Survey data (AWCS) which was fielded on the RAND American Life Panel (ALP) in 2015.
Aug 14, 2017
Research Brief
How Americans Perceive the Workplace: Results from the American Working Conditions Survey
Half of American workers say that they work in their free time to meet workplace demands, 63 percent feel that they are doing useful work, and 46 percent of retirees age 50 and older say that they would return to work if conditions were right.
Aug 14, 2017
Report
Working Conditions in the United States: Results of the 2015 American Working Conditions Survey
This report presents detailed findings from the 2015 American Working Conditions Survey about the prevalence and distribution of working conditions across the American workforce by age, gender, and education.
Aug 14, 2017
Draft
Inference with Correlated Clusters
Introduces a method which permits valid inference given a finite number of heterogeneous, correlated clusters.
Jun 6, 2017
Draft
The Effect of the 2009 Influenza Pandemic on Absence from Work
Using unique sick leave data from the Chilean private health insurance system, estimate the effect of the pandemic on missed days of work.
Jan 10, 2017
Journal Article
Supply-Side Drug Policy in the Presence of Substitutes: Evidence from the Introduction of Abuse-Deterrent Opioids
Results suggest that a substantial share of the dramatic increase in heroin deaths since 2010 can be attributed to the reformulation of OxyContin.
2017
Draft
The Effect of Population Aging on Economic Growth, the Labor Force and Productivity
Explores the magnitude of the effects of population aging on aggregate economic growth.
Aug 24, 2016
Tool
Costs and Effectiveness of Interventions to Reduce Motor Vehicle–Related Injuries and Deaths: Project Report and Online-Tool Documentation
This report documents production of an online tool to help assess costs and effectiveness of implementing up to 14 interventions and select those most effective in reducing death and injury from motor vehicle crashes for a given budget.
Dec 14, 2015
Research Brief
How to Get the Biggest Impact from an Increase in Spending on Traffic Safety
According to analysis with a free new tool, allocating increased federal traffic safety funding by cost-effectiveness ratios rather than equally among states would save more than double the number of lives and prevent almost five times the injuries.
Dec 14, 2015
Research Brief
A New Tool to Help Decisionmakers Select Interventions to Reduce Traffic Crash Deaths and Injuries
This brief describes an interactive tool that can help statedecisionmakers choose policies that are effective in reducing motor vehicle accidents in their states and appropriate to state budgets, saving lives and reducing economic and societal loss.
Dec 14, 2015
Research Brief
Should Traffic Crash Interventions Be Selected Nationally or State by State?
According to analysis using a new, free tool, a national allocation of funds for traffic crash prevention might cost less than allocating according to state-by-state needs, but it might save significantly fewer lives and reduce far fewer injuries.
Dec 14, 2015
Research Brief
Which Behavioral Interventions Are Most Cost-Effective in Reducing Drunk Driving?
Drunk driving is extremely dangerous, but not all drunk driving policies are equally cost-effective in all states. This brief describes a tool that can help decisionmakers choose policies that are appropriate for their states and state budgets.
Dec 14, 2015
Journal Article
Assessing the Effects of Medical Marijuana Laws on Marijuana Use: The Devil Is in the Details
This paper sheds light on previous inconsistencies identified in the literature regarding the relationship between medical marijuana laws (MMLs) and recreational marijuana use by closely examining the importance of policy and the timing of when particular policy dimensions are enacted.
2015
Draft
Estimating Intensive and Extensive Tax Responsiveness: Do Older Workers Respond to Income Taxes?
Studies the impact of income and payroll taxes on intensive and extensive labor supply decisions for workers ages 55-74 using the Health and Retirement Study.
Jun 18, 2014
Draft
Did the Economic Stimulus Payments of 2008 Reduce Labor Supply? Evidence from Quantile Panel Data Estimation
Explores whether the economic stimulus payments of 2008 had significant impacts on labor supply.
May 27, 2014
Draft
Moral Hazard and Adverse Selection in Private Health Insurance
Uses claims data from a large firm to study the independent roles of both moral hazard and adverse selection in private health insurance markets.
Mar 21, 2014
Journal Article
Medical Care Spending and Labor Market Outcomes: Evidence from Workers' Compensation Reforms
Following workers' compensation reforms in California, workers with low back injuries received less medical care, leading to an 8% drop in post-injury earnings relative to other injured workers. These results suggest that medical spending can impact health and that health affects labor outcomes.
2014
Draft
The Effect of Local Labor Demand Conditions on the Labor Supply Outcomes of Older Americans
Measures the effects of local labor demand conditions on a host of outcomes for older individuals including employment, retirement, Social Security claiming, wages, and job characteristics.
Nov 19, 2013
Draft
Optimal Health Insurance and the Distortionary Effects of the Tax Subsidy
Applies a model to understand how the income tax subsidy distorts optimal cost-sharing in health insurance.
Feb 7, 2013
Draft
A New Framework for Estimation of Quantile Treatment Effects: Nonseparable Disturbance in the Presence of Covariates
Introduces an unconditional quantile regression (UQR) estimator that can be used for exogenous or endogenous treatment variables.
Feb 7, 2013
Draft
The Exporter Productivity Premium along the Productivity Distribution: Evidence from Unconditional Quantile Regression with Firm Fixed Effects
Examines the productivity distribution of both exporting and non-exporting firms in German manufacturing industries while recognizing that it is potentially important to condition on firm fixed effects for estimation of this exporter premium.
Mar 10, 2011
Draft
Heterogeneity in Income Tax Incidence: Are the Wages of Dangerous Jobs More Responsive to Tax Changes than the Wages of Safe Jobs?
Compares the wage response of dangerous jobs to the wage response of safe jobs.
Jan 18, 2011
Draft
Income Taxes, Compensating Differentials, and Occupational Choice: How Taxes Distort the Wage-Amenity Decision
Introduces a two-step methodology which uses compensating differentials to characterize the tax elasticity of occupational choice.
Jan 12, 2011
Draft
Unconditional Quantile Treatment Effects in the Presence of Covariates
Discusses identification of unconditional quantile treatment effects when it is necessary or simply desirable to condition on covariates.
Dec 6, 2010