How Will Iran Respond to Soleimani's Killing—and Where Will the Escalation End?
Iranian Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani's death will reverberate in the Middle East region for a long time. The United States must know its end game and be able to respond to this changing landscape of its own making, without stumbling into another full-fledged conflict that the Trump administration itself, Congress, and the American people have said they do not want.
Jan 7, 2020 The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
Understanding Iran's Nuclear Escalation Strategy
Throughout 2019, Iran has gradually reduced its compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. What are its goals in doing this? Why has it adopted this strategy? And perhaps most importantly, how far does Iran intend to go?
Dec 12, 2019 War on the Rocks
Don't Expect a Thaw in Iran
Iran's recent protests could mark the beginning of a new chapter in Iran's domestic politics. Whatever happens inside the country, though, it will not likely change Iran's foreign policy.
Dec 11, 2019 Foreign Policy
Don't Overestimate the Power of Iraqi Protests
As protests in Iraq grow, a “good news” narrative seems to be developing that they are a significant blow to Iranian influence. But the bigger story is not who is up and who is down between Washington and Tehran; it is that yet another Arab public has taken to the streets demanding change.
Nov 14, 2019 Foreign Policy
Iran, the Unitary State
Current and future U.S. policy toward Iran must begin with the premise that the Islamic Republic is the sum of its parts and that to try to empower moderates or disempower hard-liners is naive. Rather, Washington should strive to deal with Iran as it is, not as Washington wishes it were.
Oct 18, 2019 Foreign Affairs
Iran's Proxies Are More Powerful Than Ever
The Trump administration has pursued a so-called maximum pressure strategy designed to alter the course of Iran's foreign and security policies, which relies heavily on sanctions to change Iranian behavior. Financial sanctions are an important part of any counterterrorism strategy. But they aren't enough.
Oct 16, 2019 Foreign Policy
Syria Changed the Iranian Way of War
To get a sense of the playbook that Tehran might consult in any future conflict with the United States, Washington should pay close attention to what the Iranians have learned in Syria.
Aug 16, 2019 Foreign Affairs
Iran's Cooperation with the Taliban Could Affect Talks on U.S. Withdrawal from Afghanistan
Iranian Foreign Minister Mohammad Javad Zarif has acknowledged that his country has some level of cooperation with the Taliban. How did Iran's relationship with the Taliban come about? And how might it affect the future of U.S.-Taliban talks?
Aug 9, 2019 The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
A Post-2020 U.S. Return to the Iran Nuclear Deal?
Now that the United States is out of the Iran nuclear deal, signing back on will not be as simple or as practical as some may hope. Too much has happened since it was first inked in 2015. With the political landscape in Tehran and Washington still taking shape, those who want to return to some kind of deal should start planning.
Jun 20, 2019 Foreign Policy
Iran's Network of Fighters in the Middle East Aren't Always Loyal to Iran
Iran's nonstate partners are emerging as central players in the escalating tensions between Washington and Tehran, and may be a driver of further escalation. But how involved is Iran with these proxy groups?
May 21, 2019 The Washington Post Monkey Cage Blog
The U.S. and Iran: Beyond the Rhetoric
Since the United States withdrew from the nuclear deal with Iran, tensions between the two countries have increased. Washington has stepped up pressure on Tehran in the hopes of reopening negotiations or ushering in the regime's collapse, while inside Iran, President Rouhani is facing pressure to retaliate.
May 17, 2019 Haaretz
Can Anyone Save the Iran Nuclear Deal Now?
Europe faces mounting pressure from both Tehran and Washington regarding the Iran nuclear deal. European countries could take steps to signal their commitment to upholding the deal, but doing so may alienate the United States.
May 10, 2019 New York Times
U.S., Iran Must Both Tread Lightly with Tensions Running So High
Tensions between the United States and Iran have increased, raising concerns that they may be headed for war. But conflict is not inevitable. The United States and Iran could seek to re-establish communications channels, as well as look for available off-ramps to de-escalate tensions and keep the slightest misstep from spiraling into an all-out conflict.
May 9, 2019 The Hill
The U.S. Designated the Revolutionary Guards as a Terrorist Group. What Happens Next?
The U.S. designation of Iran's Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps as a terrorist organization was meant to serve America's interests by isolating Iran. Instead, it may increase the likelihood of a tit-for-tat escalation that will require significant resources to avoid a broader regional conflagration.
Apr 11, 2019 Foreign Policy
Can the U.S. Attain Foreign Policy Goals with 'Maximum Pressure' Campaigns?
The Trump administration's record in two of today's most pressing nuclear nonproliferation challenges, North Korea and Iran, highlights the potential dangers of a “maximum pressure” strategy.
Mar 6, 2019 Foreign Policy
Behind the 'Surprise' Resignation of Iran's Foreign Minister
Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, announced his resignation after a nearly six-year tenure. His resignation has sparked as much controversy as his tenure, one dominated by overtures to the West and resulting tensions at home. Although his departure will likely be felt most acutely in Europe, it may have a deeper impact in Tehran.
Feb 26, 2019 Foreign Policy
The Islamic Republic's Foreign Policy at Forty
Forty years have passed since the Islamic Revolution. While Iran hasn't departed from its revolutionary roots, its foreign policy today is largely shaped by threat perceptions and interests, not ideology.
Feb 8, 2019 Atlantic Council
Withdrawing from Syria Leaves a Vacuum That Iran Will Fill
President Trump's decision to withdraw American troops from Syria may be unintentionally signaling that the United States is unwilling to compete in critical geopolitical hotspots. Such a message could embolden powerful states—including Iran—to expand their presence.
Jan 8, 2019 Foreign Affairs
Could America Use Its Leverage to Alter the Saudis' Behavior?
As the Saudis' chief political and military partner and the undisputed security guarantor in the Middle East, the United States has considerable influence it can wield over Saudi decisionmaking. The Trump administration could consider using its influence to encourage Saudi leadership to moderate its assertive and damaging policies abroad.
Nov 15, 2018 Newsweek
Is Major Realignment Taking Place in the Middle East?
The shifting alignments in the Middle East have intensified since the murder of the Saudi journalist Khashoggi in Istanbul. Turkey has drifted away from NATO and toward Iran and Russia. Like Tehran and Moscow, Ankara is now more anti-Western than at any point in recent memory. What does this mean for the United States?
Oct 31, 2018 Foreign Affairs
America's Indefinite Endgame in Syria
The Trump administration's position on the Syrian civil war has shifted from countering ISIS to containing Iran. America will remain in Syria as long as Iran does. But an unending timetable for the withdrawal of troops is far more problematic for Washington than it is for Tehran.
Oct 16, 2018 The Atlantic
Can U.S. Pressure Lead to a New Iran Nuclear Deal?
It could be a mistake for the United States to assume that more pressure will bring Iran closer to ending or reducing its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. When it comes to measures aimed at Iran's nuclear program, more pressure could worsen nuclear risks and further drive a wedge between the United States and its European allies.
Sep 18, 2018 Foreign Policy
Iran's Disinformation Campaigns
New reports suggest that the Kremlin may have company in its efforts to shape the United States' domestic information landscape: Iran. As Americans prepare to return to the voting booths this fall, Washington would be well advised to look into Iran's disinformation capabilities and intentions.
Aug 24, 2018 Foreign Affairs
