Report
Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions
Sep 27, 2021
In recent years, Iran has risen as one of the most significant regional challenges faced by the United States. In this report, the authors assess when, where, why, and how Iran conducts military interventions and identify key signposts of Iranian military interventions that can be used as early warning indicators for U.S. military planners and can guide decisions about the use of forces in the Middle East region.
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In recent years, Iran has risen as one of the most significant regional challenges faced by the United States, with Tehran's nuclear and ballistic missile programs, support for terrorist groups and militias, cyber activities and influence operations, and military interventions in the region.
In this report, the authors assess when, where, why, and how Iran conducts military interventions and identify key signposts of Iranian military interventions that can be used as early warning indicators for U.S. military planners and that can guide decisions about the use of forces in the Middle East region. They identify the factors that are most likely to shape Iran's military intervention decisions and analyze those factors as they relate to two detailed case studies: (1) Iran's involvement in the ongoing Syrian civil war and (2) Iran's post-2014 intervention in Iraq to counter the Islamic State in Iraq and Syria.
The future of great-power competition and how it plays out in the Middle East, coupled with the regional landscape, are important factors that will shape how Iran sees its military activities. Although a move away from a period of greater U.S. power in the region would seem to provide fewer threats and more opportunities for Iran, the relations among Beijing, Moscow, and Washington and how they affect Iranian perceptions of the regional balance of power bear careful monitoring.
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Identifying Possible Drivers of Iranian Military Interventions
Chapter Three
Patterns in Historical Iranian Military Interventions
Chapter Four
Case Study: Iranian Intervention in the Syrian Civil War (2011–Present)
Chapter Five
Case Study: Iranian Intervention to Counter the Rising ISIS Threat in Iraq (2014–Present)
Chapter Six
Conclusion
The research described in this report was sponsored by the Office of the Deputy Chief of Staff, G-3/5/7, U.S. Army and conducted within Strategy, Doctrine, and Resources Program within the RAND Arroyo Center.
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