Bryan Frederick

The Global Movement Against China's Economic Coercion Is Accelerating

There is much the West can do to push back against Chinese economic pressure, and many reasons to do so. Doing so is a core interest of the United States, which now places itself in competition with China over the shape of the international order.

U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Q&A with Miranda Priebe and Bryan Frederick

Priebe and Frederick discuss the implications of the findings in their new report, Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach.

Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Miranda Priebe and Bryan Frederick in Conversation

Though not a great power war, Russia's invasion of Ukraine has caused many to wonder what a true great power war in Europe or the Indo-Pacific would look like, and especially what kind of world would emerge afterwards. Two RAND researchers discuss how their recent report sheds light on this issue.

Why U.S. Military Interventions Fail and What to Do About It

There will always be situations in which military intervention is the best or only option for the United States. But policymakers must also recognize that in many cases, the best response to a crisis or potential threat is to take no military action at all and rely instead on diplomacy or sanctions—or simply learn to live with an elevated threat.

One Year After Russia's Invasion of Ukraine: Experts React

We asked nearly 30 RAND experts to highlight takeaways from the first year of Russia's all-out war—and share what they're watching as the conflict in Ukraine grinds on. Here's what they said.

Better Defense Planning Could Use Statistics to Try to See into the Future

Statistical forecasting models that are grounded in empirical data can provide a valuable supplement to more-traditional methods. These tools allow for a more-structured and robust exploration of the future, its implications, and our assumptions about it.

Ukraine and the Death of Territorial Integrity

Russia's increasingly brazen violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity threatens to undermine the widely accepted principle that international borders are not subject to further revision, a principle that has contributed to a global decline in interstate war in recent decades.

Research Brief

Greater Conflict-Phase Access to Asia: U.S. Policies for Five Indo-Pacific Countries

This research brief addresses how U.S. allies and partners are likely to make decisions about granting approval for U.S. military access during a conflict and what U.S. policies in peacetime could affect those decisions.

Report

Improving Conflict-Phase Access: Identifying U.S. Policy Levers

This report explores how U.S. allies and partners in the Indo-Pacific are likely to respond to military access requests in the event of a conflict with China and what policy levers the United States might use in peacetime to affect those responses.

Report

Escalation in the War in Ukraine: Lessons Learned and Risks for the Future

This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the war in Ukraine, including possible escalation to Russian nuclear use, to better inform U.S. and allied decisions and the public debate.

Research Brief

Understanding the Risk of Escalation in the War in Ukraine

This research brief describes analysis of escalation risks in the war in Ukraine, including what can be learned from the conflict to date and what escalation risks may be most acute going forward.

Report

Future U.S. Peacetime Policy Toward Russia: Exploring the Benefits and Costs of a Less-Hardline Approach

Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.

Research Brief

What Should Future U.S. Policy Toward Russia Be in Peacetime? Evaluating Trade-Offs of a Less-Hardline Approach

Using four historical case studies, the authors found that limited less-hardline approaches can lead to durable but narrow gains. However, issues left unaddressed by these approaches may still undermine the relationship over the long term.

Research Brief

The Aftermath of a Great Power War

RAND researchers drew on historical great power wars to develop four scenarios illustrating how hypothetical wars between the United States and either China or Russia could produce unanticipated consequences — even for the state that is victorious.

Report

Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Volume 1, Scenarios, Findings, and Recommendations

RAND researchers generated four plausible near-term great power war scenarios and assessed how they could shape the postwar strategic environment.

Report

Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Overarching Findings and Recommendations

This report synthesizes the findings and recommendations from two companion reports on intrastate proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.

Report

Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: State Motivations and Future Trends

The authors used quantitative analysis and case studies of China, Iran, and Russia to examine the causes and likely future trends in proxy wars: civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state.

Report

Proxy Warfare in Strategic Competition: Military Implications

The authors examine the military implications of intrastate proxy wars (civil wars in which at least one local warring party receives material support from an external state) via a literature review and four case studies.

Research Brief

Managing the Escalation Risks of U.S. Military Activities in the Indo-Pacific

This brief describes how the United States can select and shape its military activities in the Indo-Pacific region to deter Chinese aggression against U.S. allies and partners while also limiting the risks of escalatory Chinese reactions.

Commentary

Responding to a Limited Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War

This Perspective outlines key considerations for U.S. policymakers charged with planning responses to a potential limited Russian attack on U.S. allies or U.S. forces in Europe.

Commentary

Countering Chinese Coercion: Multilateral Responses to PRC Economic Pressure Campaigns

China has made increasingly belligerent use of its economic leverage, while affected states have often been left to respond on their own. The authors propose that the United States organize a multilateral response and evaluate ways to do so.

Report

Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific

This report assesses how China may react to U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of factors likely to determine Chinese responses and advises how the characteristics of activities may affect the risk of escalation.

Report

Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition

This report provides a broad-based understanding of the economic, geopolitical, and military dimensions of the ongoing U.S. competitions with China and Russia and identifies recommendations for strategic policy action and investment.

Report

Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements

This report provides a framework of key factors to aid U.S. policymakers in assessing how China may react to shifting U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific. The authors apply the framework to hypothetical posture enhancements to offer insights.

Commentary

Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War

The potential for Russia to escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine by attacking a U.S. or allied target is a significant concern. This Perspective identifies four potential escalation pathways and accompanying key considerations for U.S. policymakers.

Report

Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: Assessing Future Trends in Armed Conflict and U.S. Military Interventions

This report identifies potential future demands for U.S. ground forces under different scenarios, including size, location, and capabilities, to inform Army decisions regarding future force planning, posture, and investments.

Tool

Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: An Interactive Tool

This interactive tool uses a dynamic forecasting model to project future demand for U.S. ground forces. The resulting forecasts can help inform U.S. military decisions regarding future force planning, posture, and investments.

Report

Competition and Restraint in Cyberspace: The Role of International Norms in Promoting U.S. Cybersecurity

The authors discuss the need and potential for norms constraining cyber aggression. They review the history of cyber norms and the current policies surrounding them and propose a renewed agenda for the United States to encourage their development.

Report

Assessing Trade-Offs in U.S. Military Intervention Decisions: Whether, When, and with What Size Force to Intervene

In this report, the authors create a framework that can be used to assess the trade-offs involved in U.S. military intervention decisions following the outbreak of a war or crisis to inform future debates about whether and when to intervene.

Report

Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries

Leveraging theory and historical cases, the authors identify the factors that keep great-power rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes and use that framework to assess the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.

Report

Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions

The authors explore where, how, and how often U.S. adversaries (specifically, Russia, China, and Iran) have intervened militarily since 1946 and identify why these adversaries initiated military interventions and why they might do so in the future.

Report

China's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

China has undertaken two broad types of military interventions in its post-1949 history. The authors assess which one of two patterns is likely to predominate in China's future and on what factors the answer to this question is likely to depend.

Report

Iran's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

In this report, the authors assess when, where, why, and how Iran conducts military interventions and identify key signposts of Iranian military interventions that can be used as early warning indicators for U.S. military planners.

Report

Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts

Despite Russia's relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other U.S. competitor since 1991. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia conducts military interventions.

Research Brief

Can the U.S. Military Strengthen Deterrence by Becoming More Operationally Unpredictable?

This brief assesses how the United States might deter adversaries from attacking U.S. allies by increasing adversary uncertainty about how the United States would fight.

Report

Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence: Evaluating Options for Complicating Adversary Decisionmaking

This report assesses whether and how the U.S. military might utilize unpredictability in force employment, posture, and operations to deter adversaries and identifies the possible risks and costs of such approaches.

Report

Understanding Influence in the Strategic Competition with China

This report examines China's ability to use various mechanisms of influence to shape the policies and behavior of 20 countries, as well as the lessons that these examples offer for the United States' strategic competition with China.

Report

The Future of Warfare Boxed Set

This series of reports examines the key geopolitical, economic, environmental, geographic, legal, informational, and military trends that will shape the contours of conflict between now and 2030.

Report

The Future of Warfare in 2030: Project Overview and Conclusions

This report is the overview in a series that seeks to answer questions about the future of warfare, including who might be the United States' adversaries and allies, where conflicts will be fought, and how and why they might occur.

Research Brief

Peering into the Crystal Ball: Holistically Assessing the Future of Warfare

This brief summarizes a series of reports about the geopolitical, economic, environmental, legal, informational, and military trends that are likely shape the contours of conflict through 2030.

Report

Restraint and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force

This volume of the Future of Warfare series examines trends in factors affecting the use of restraint in warfare that could affect U.S. national security, notably effectiveness of false accusations and public concern for civilian casualties.

Report

Understanding the Deterrent Impact of U.S. Overseas Forces

This report provides empirical evidence on the deterrent effects of U.S. overseas military forces. It also offers guidance about how the deterrent effects of forces may vary by their type, size, and location.

Report

Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground

As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report analyzes how the United States can compete to its own advantage and capitalize on Russia's weaknesses.

Research Brief

Overextending and Unbalancing Russia: Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options

This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines non-violent, cost-imposing options that could be pursued to overextend and unbalance the Russian regime.

Report

Characteristics of Successful U.S. Military Interventions

Using an original data set of 145 ground, air, and naval interventions from 1898 through 2016, this report identifies those factors that have made U.S. military interventions more or less successful at achieving their political objectives.

Report

What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression

Deterrence of territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion has lagged in military and strategy circles. The authors provide a fresh look, reviewing established concepts and evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships.

Report

Limited Intervention: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Limited Stabilization, Limited Strike, and Containment Operations

The report analyzes the strategic effects of low-cost and small-footprint military options across a range of irregular warfare operations and in a range of operational environments.

Report

U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict

Empirically assesses how U.S. military presence -- in particular, U.S. troop presence and military assistance -- is associated with the interstate and intrastate conflict behavior of states and nonstate actors.

Report

Religion, Conflict, and Stability in the Former Soviet Union

Religion has become increasingly important in the sociopolitical life of countries in the former Soviet Union. This volume of essays examines how religion affects conflict and stability in the region and provides recommendations to policymakers.

Report

Building Armies, Building Nations: Toward a New Approach to Security Force Assistance

This report proposes an alternative approach to Security Force Assistance (SFA) derived from an interpretation of nation-building and legitimacy formation grounded in history.

Report

The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions: Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts

This report uses an original data set of U.S. ground interventions to identify factors that determine where and when the United States is most likely to intervene militarily.

Report

Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements

RAND researchers develop a framework to assess likely Russian reactions to ongoing and proposed NATO posture enhancements in Europe in order to help policymakers determine the utility and advisability of different options.

Report

Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections

Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.

Report

A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning

This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.

Report

Understanding Conflict Trends: A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict

This report explores, through an extensive literature review, whether the extreme rarity of interstate war and reduced incidence of intrastate war represent permanent shifts in world politics or are a temporary aberration.

Report

What Are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and What Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?

This report assesses trends in armed conflict, the incidence of which has declined in recent decades. Key political, economic, and strategic factors, including the deterrent effect of the U.S. military, suggest this decline is likely to continue.

Report

NATO's Northeastern Flank: Emerging Opportunities for Engagement

This report examines the impact of renewed tension between NATO and Russia on key allies and partners in central and northeastern Europe to identify how changes in their interests, strategies, and capabilities affect U.S. partnering in the region.

Report

Security Sector Reform in Ukraine

The Maidan Revolution in Ukraine created an opportunity for change and reforms in a system that had resisted them for 25 years. This report provides an overview of recommendations for the reform of Ukraine's security and defense institutions.

Report

NATO's Northeastern Flank — Emerging Opportunities for Engagement: An Overview

This document is the executive summary of a report that explains the implications of the changing security relationship with Russia for U.S. Air Force and defense engagement with a group of key allies and partner states in northeastern Europe.

Report

The Continued Evolution of U.S. Law of Armed Conflict Implementation: Implications for the U.S. Military

RAND researchers examine potential strategic, technological, and normative trends that may affect the future evolution of U.S. policies that implement the Law of Armed Conflict, and assess the resulting implications for the U.S. military.

Research Brief

The Conflict in Syria: Understanding and Avoiding Regional Spillover Effects

Researchers examined the literature of armed conflict to determine the main factors that are likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency, then examined how they apply to Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan.

Report

Spillover from the Conflict in Syria: An Assessment of the Factors that Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence

This report examines the main factors likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency in Syria, and then examines how they apply to neighboring states.