Bryan Frederick

Overview

Commentary

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  Ukraine and the Death of Territorial Integrity

  Russia's increasingly brazen violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity threatens to undermine the widely accepted principle that international borders are not subject to further revision, a principle that has contributed to a global decline in interstate war in recent decades.

  Mar 5, 2014 The National Interest

Publications

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  Report

  Limited Intervention: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Limited Stabilization, Limited Strike, and Containment Operations

  The report analyzes the strategic effects of low-cost and small-footprint military options across a range of irregular warfare operations and in a range of operational environments.

  Feb 22, 2018

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  Report

  U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict

  Empirically assesses how U.S. military presence -- in particular, U.S. troop presence and military assistance -- is associated with the interstate and intrastate conflict behavior of states and nonstate actors.

  Feb 15, 2018

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  Report

  Religion, Conflict, and Stability in the Former Soviet Union

  Religion has become increasingly important in the sociopolitical life of countries in the former Soviet Union. This volume of essays examines how religion affects conflict and stability in the region and provides recommendations to policymakers.

  Jan 15, 2018

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  Report

  Building Armies, Building Nations: Toward a New Approach to Security Force Assistance

  This report proposes an alternative approach to Security Force Assistance (SFA) derived from an interpretation of nation-building and legitimacy formation grounded in history.

  Oct 24, 2017

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  Report

  The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions: Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts

  This report uses an original data set of U.S. ground interventions to identify factors that determine where and when the United States is most likely to intervene militarily.

  Oct 12, 2017

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  Report

  Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements

  RAND researchers develop a framework to assess likely Russian reactions to ongoing and proposed NATO posture enhancements in Europe in order to help policymakers determine the utility and advisability of different options.

  Oct 10, 2017

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  Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections

  Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.

  Sep 12, 2017

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  A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning

  This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.

  Sep 12, 2017

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  Understanding Conflict Trends: A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict

  This report explores, through an extensive literature review, whether the extreme rarity of interstate war and reduced incidence of intrastate war represent permanent shifts in world politics or are a temporary aberration.

  Sep 12, 2017

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  Report

  What Are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and What Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?

  This report assesses trends in armed conflict, the incidence of which has declined in recent decades. Key political, economic, and strategic factors, including the deterrent effect of the U.S. military, suggest this decline is likely to continue.

  Sep 12, 2017

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  Report

  NATO's Northeastern Flank: Emerging Opportunities for Engagement

  This report examines the impact of renewed tension between NATO and Russia on key allies and partners in central and northeastern Europe to identify how changes in their interests, strategies, and capabilities affect U.S. partnering in the region.

  Jun 20, 2017

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  Report

  Security Sector Reform in Ukraine

  The Maidan Revolution in Ukraine created an opportunity for change and reforms in a system that had resisted them for 25 years. This report provides an overview of recommendations for the reform of Ukraine's security and defense institutions.

  Oct 5, 2016

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  Report

  NATO's Northeastern Flank — Emerging Opportunities for Engagement: An Overview

  This document is the executive summary of a report that explains the implications of the changing security relationship with Russia for U.S. Air Force and defense engagement with a group of key allies and partner states in northeastern Europe.

  Jul 7, 2016

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  The Continued Evolution of U.S. Law of Armed Conflict Implementation: Implications for the U.S. Military

  RAND researchers examine potential strategic, technological, and normative trends that may affect the future evolution of U.S. policies that implement the Law of Armed Conflict, and assess the resulting implications for the U.S. military.

  Nov 9, 2015

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  Research Brief

  The Conflict in Syria: Understanding and Avoiding Regional Spillover Effects

  Researchers examined the literature of armed conflict to determine the main factors that are likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency, then examined how they apply to Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan.

  Aug 27, 2014

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  Report

  Spillover from the Conflict in Syria: An Assessment of the Factors that Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence

  This report examines the main factors likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency in Syria, and then examines how they apply to neighboring states.

  Aug 27, 2014