Bryan Frederick

Associate Director, Strategy and Doctrine Program, RAND Project AIR FORCE; Senior Political Scientist

Washington Office

Education

Ph.D. in international relations, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS); M.A. in international relations and international economics, Johns Hopkins University School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS); B.A. in philosophy, Williams College

One Page Bio

Overview

Bryan Frederick (he/him) is the associate director of the Strategy and Doctrine Program within RAND Project AIR FORCE, and a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. His research interests include strategic competition, interstate deterrence and escalation, conflict forecasting, military interventions, territorial disputes, international norms, the law of armed conflict, and regional security issues in Europe, East Asia, South Asia, and the Middle East. He has previously worked at the International Crisis Group, and the Issue Correlates of War Project. He completed his Ph.D. in International Relations at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies (SAIS) in 2012, his M.A. from Johns Hopkins SAIS in 2002, and his B.A. in Philosophy from Williams College in 1998.

Research Focus

Commentary

Military Force Planning

Better Defense Planning Could Use Statistics to Try to See into the Future
Statistical forecasting models that are grounded in empirical data can provide a valuable supplement to more-traditional methods. These tools allow for a more-structured and robust exploration of the future, its implications, and our assumptions about it.
Oct 19, 2022
The RAND Blog
Military Doctrine

Ukraine and the Death of Territorial Integrity
Russia's increasingly brazen violation of Ukraine's territorial integrity threatens to undermine the widely accepted principle that international borders are not subject to further revision, a principle that has contributed to a global decline in interstate war in recent decades.
Mar 5, 2014
The National Interest

Publications

Report
Managing Escalation While Competing Effectively in the Indo-Pacific
This report assesses how China may react to U.S. military activities in the Indo-Pacific. It provides a framework of factors likely to determine Chinese responses and advises how the characteristics of activities may affect the risk of escalation.
Nov 30, 2022
Report
Understanding a New Era of Strategic Competition
This report provides a broad-based understanding of the economic, geopolitical, and military dimensions of the ongoing U.S. competitions with China and Russia and identifies recommendations for strategic policy action and investment.
Nov 30, 2022
Report
Anticipating Chinese Reactions to U.S. Posture Enhancements
This report provides a framework of key factors to aid U.S. policymakers in assessing how China may react to shifting U.S. posture in the Indo-Pacific. The authors apply the framework to hypothetical posture enhancements to offer insights.
Oct 25, 2022
Report
Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO from the Ukraine War
The potential for Russia to escalate the ongoing war in Ukraine by attacking a U.S. or allied target is a significant concern. This Perspective identifies four potential escalation pathways and accompanying key considerations for U.S. policymakers.
Jul 26, 2022
Report
Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: Assessing Future Trends in Armed Conflict and U.S. Military Interventions
This report identifies potential future demands for U.S. ground forces under different scenarios, including size, location, and capabilities, to inform Army decisions regarding future force planning, posture, and investments.
Jul 6, 2022
Tool
Forecasting Demand for U.S. Ground Forces: An Interactive Tool
This interactive tool uses a dynamic forecasting model to project future demand for U.S. ground forces. The resulting forecasts can help inform U.S. military decisions regarding future force planning, posture, and investments.
Jul 6, 2022
Report
Competition and Restraint in Cyberspace: The Role of International Norms in Promoting U.S. Cybersecurity
The authors discuss the need and potential for norms constraining cyber aggression. They review the history of cyber norms and the current policies surrounding them and propose a renewed agenda for the United States to encourage their development.
Mar 4, 2022
Report
Assessing Trade-Offs in U.S. Military Intervention Decisions: Whether, When, and with What Size Force to Intervene
In this report, the authors create a framework that can be used to assess the trade-offs involved in U.S. military intervention decisions following the outbreak of a war or crisis to inform future debates about whether and when to intervene.
Dec 13, 2021
Report
Stabilizing Great-Power Rivalries
Leveraging theory and historical cases, the authors identify the factors that keep great-power rivalries stable and those that lead to conflictual outcomes and use that framework to assess the current U.S.-Russia and U.S.-China competitions.
Nov 29, 2021
Report
Anticipating Adversary Military Interventions
The authors explore where, how, and how often U.S. adversaries (specifically, Russia, China, and Iran) have intervened militarily since 1946 and identify why these adversaries initiated military interventions and why they might do so in the future.
Sep 27, 2021
Report
China's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts
China has undertaken two broad types of military interventions in its post-1949 history. The authors assess which one of two patterns is likely to predominate in China's future and on what factors the answer to this question is likely to depend.
Sep 27, 2021
Report
Iran's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts
In this report, the authors assess when, where, why, and how Iran conducts military interventions and identify key signposts of Iranian military interventions that can be used as early warning indicators for U.S. military planners.
Sep 27, 2021
Report
Russia's Military Interventions: Patterns, Drivers, and Signposts
Despite Russia's relatively small global economic footprint, it has engaged in more interventions than any other U.S. competitor since 1991. In this report, the authors assess when, where, and why Russia conducts military interventions.
Sep 27, 2021
Research Brief
Can the U.S. Military Strengthen Deterrence by Becoming More Operationally Unpredictable?
This brief assesses how the United States might deter adversaries from attacking U.S. allies by increasing adversary uncertainty about how the United States would fight.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
Operational Unpredictability and Deterrence: Evaluating Options for Complicating Adversary Decisionmaking
This report assesses whether and how the U.S. military might utilize unpredictability in force employment, posture, and operations to deter adversaries and identifies the possible risks and costs of such approaches.
Aug 11, 2021
Report
Understanding Influence in the Strategic Competition with China
This report examines China's ability to use various mechanisms of influence to shape the policies and behavior of 20 countries, as well as the lessons that these examples offer for the United States' strategic competition with China.
Jun 30, 2021
Report
The Future of Warfare Boxed Set
This series of reports examines the key geopolitical, economic, environmental, geographic, legal, informational, and military trends that will shape the contours of conflict between now and 2030.
Aug 26, 2020
Report
The Future of Warfare in 2030: Project Overview and Conclusions
This report is the overview in a series that seeks to answer questions about the future of warfare, including who might be the United States' adversaries and allies, where conflicts will be fought, and how and why they might occur.
May 11, 2020
Research Brief
Peering into the Crystal Ball: Holistically Assessing the Future of Warfare
This brief summarizes a series of reports about the geopolitical, economic, environmental, legal, informational, and military trends that are likely shape the contours of conflict through 2030.
May 11, 2020
Report
Restraint and the Future of Warfare: The Changing Global Environment and Its Implications for the U.S. Air Force
This volume of the Future of Warfare series examines trends in factors affecting the use of restraint in warfare that could affect U.S. national security, notably effectiveness of false accusations and public concern for civilian casualties.
May 11, 2020
Report
Understanding the Deterrent Impact of U.S. Overseas Forces
This report provides empirical evidence on the deterrent effects of U.S. overseas military forces. It also offers guidance about how the deterrent effects of forces may vary by their type, size, and location.
Feb 4, 2020
Report
Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground
As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report analyzes how the United States can compete to its own advantage and capitalize on Russia's weaknesses.
Apr 24, 2019
Research Brief
Overextending and Unbalancing Russia: Assessing the Impact of Cost-Imposing Options
This brief summarizes a report that comprehensively examines non-violent, cost-imposing options that could be pursued to overextend and unbalance the Russian regime.
Apr 24, 2019
Report
Characteristics of Successful U.S. Military Interventions
Using an original data set of 145 ground, air, and naval interventions from 1898 through 2016, this report identifies those factors that have made U.S. military interventions more or less successful at achieving their political objectives.
Apr 1, 2019
Report
What Deters and Why: Exploring Requirements for Effective Deterrence of Interstate Aggression
Deterrence of territorial aggression is taking on renewed importance, yet discussion has lagged in military and strategy circles. The authors provide a fresh look, reviewing established concepts and evaluating the strength of deterrent relationships.
Nov 20, 2018
Report
Limited Intervention: Evaluating the Effectiveness of Limited Stabilization, Limited Strike, and Containment Operations
The report analyzes the strategic effects of low-cost and small-footprint military options across a range of irregular warfare operations and in a range of operational environments.
Feb 22, 2018
Report
U.S. Presence and the Incidence of Conflict
Empirically assesses how U.S. military presence -- in particular, U.S. troop presence and military assistance -- is associated with the interstate and intrastate conflict behavior of states and nonstate actors.
Feb 15, 2018
Report
Religion, Conflict, and Stability in the Former Soviet Union
Religion has become increasingly important in the sociopolitical life of countries in the former Soviet Union. This volume of essays examines how religion affects conflict and stability in the region and provides recommendations to policymakers.
Jan 15, 2018
Report
Building Armies, Building Nations: Toward a New Approach to Security Force Assistance
This report proposes an alternative approach to Security Force Assistance (SFA) derived from an interpretation of nation-building and legitimacy formation grounded in history.
Oct 24, 2017
Report
The Past, Present, and Future of U.S. Ground Interventions: Identifying Trends, Characteristics, and Signposts
This report uses an original data set of U.S. ground interventions to identify factors that determine where and when the United States is most likely to intervene militarily.
Oct 12, 2017
Report
Assessing Russian Reactions to U.S. and NATO Posture Enhancements
RAND researchers develop a framework to assess likely Russian reactions to ongoing and proposed NATO posture enhancements in Europe in order to help policymakers determine the utility and advisability of different options.
Oct 10, 2017
Report
Conflict Trends and Conflict Drivers: An Empirical Assessment of Historical Conflict Patterns and Future Conflict Projections
Based on conflict projections through 2040, this report concludes that despite the generally declining incidence of armed conflict, the Army must prepare for conventional wars against other states as well as irregular warfare against nonstate actors.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
A More Peaceful World? Regional Conflict Trends and U.S. Defense Planning
This report analyzes trends in violent conflict and their implications for defense planning. It presents models estimating levels of conflict to 2040 under different scenarios and suggests early warning indicators of potential increases in conflict.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
Understanding Conflict Trends: A Review of the Social Science Literature on the Causes of Conflict
This report explores, through an extensive literature review, whether the extreme rarity of interstate war and reduced incidence of intrastate war represent permanent shifts in world politics or are a temporary aberration.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
What Are the Trends in Armed Conflicts, and What Do They Mean for U.S. Defense Policy?
This report assesses trends in armed conflict, the incidence of which has declined in recent decades. Key political, economic, and strategic factors, including the deterrent effect of the U.S. military, suggest this decline is likely to continue.
Sep 12, 2017
Report
NATO's Northeastern Flank: Emerging Opportunities for Engagement
This report examines the impact of renewed tension between NATO and Russia on key allies and partners in central and northeastern Europe to identify how changes in their interests, strategies, and capabilities affect U.S. partnering in the region.
Jun 20, 2017
Report
Security Sector Reform in Ukraine
The Maidan Revolution in Ukraine created an opportunity for change and reforms in a system that had resisted them for 25 years. This report provides an overview of recommendations for the reform of Ukraine's security and defense institutions.
Oct 5, 2016
Report
NATO's Northeastern Flank — Emerging Opportunities for Engagement: An Overview
This document is the executive summary of a report that explains the implications of the changing security relationship with Russia for U.S. Air Force and defense engagement with a group of key allies and partner states in northeastern Europe.
Jul 7, 2016
Report
The Continued Evolution of U.S. Law of Armed Conflict Implementation: Implications for the U.S. Military
RAND researchers examine potential strategic, technological, and normative trends that may affect the future evolution of U.S. policies that implement the Law of Armed Conflict, and assess the resulting implications for the U.S. military.
Nov 9, 2015
Research Brief
The Conflict in Syria: Understanding and Avoiding Regional Spillover Effects
Researchers examined the literature of armed conflict to determine the main factors that are likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency, then examined how they apply to Turkey, Lebanon, Iraq, and Jordan.
Aug 27, 2014
Report
Spillover from the Conflict in Syria: An Assessment of the Factors that Aid and Impede the Spread of Violence
This report examines the main factors likely to contribute to or impede the spread of violence from civil war and insurgency in Syria, and then examines how they apply to neighboring states.
Aug 27, 2014