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Increased international trade, and the lowering of barriers to such trade, frequently results in improved international relations, but it can also lead to trade wars and tariff disputes. RAND research explores bilateral and multilateral economic relations; describes how they affect global alliances, globalization, and the economic health of nations; and recommends methods to develop, encourage, and maintain these relations among diverse nations and cultures.

Commentary

The U.S.-China Trade War: Different Messages

Jul 20, 2018

The trade war between the United States and China began with the notification of tariffs on $34 billion of traded goods on each side. Officials on both sides of the Pacific are using different messages to convey the dispute. What are the real impacts likely to be?
Report

Potential Impacts of Brexit on UK, EU, U.S. Economies

Dec 12, 2017

The UK economy is likely to suffer under the most probable post-Brexit trade scenarios. Leaving the EU with no deal would make the UK nearly 5 percent poorer in 2029 than if it had remained. The most beneficial scenario would be a trilateral UK-EU-U.S. agreement, but that is unlikely in the current political environment.

Explore International Economic Relations

Commentary

New Pakistan, Old Challenges

While the United States has been voicing concerns about the destabilizing potential of China's Belt and Road Initiative, Pakistan needs the economic stability that initiative could bring. As long as Pakistan remains a poor country, its democracy will be at risk.

Oct 17, 2018
Report

China's Engagement with the Developing World

Engaging with developing countries offers China economic growth and global influence. What are the consequences of Beijing's strategy toward the developing world for the United States?

Oct 16, 2018
News Release

Support for EEA-Style Brexit Has Increased

Support for a Brexit deal based on membership of the European Economic Area (EEA) has increased. EEA membership is now supported by 43 per cent of Britons, up from 38 per cent in 2017, making it the most popular Brexit option.

Oct 11, 2018
Commentary

We Asked the British Public What Kind of Brexit They Want—and a Norway-Like Deal Is the Clear Winner

The Brexit referendum outcome reveals very little about what people actually wanted. But a RAND Europe study of what people value about the EU finds that their priorities map most squarely onto a Norway-style model for future relations between the UK and the EU.

Oct 11, 2018
Report

Report

What sort of Brexit do the British people want? A longitudinal study examining the "trade-offs" people would be willing to make in reaching a Brexit deal — technical addendum

A study using stated preference discrete choice experiments to quantify the British people's preferences for their relationship with the European Union after Brexit.

Oct 10, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

What Sort of Brexit Do the British People Want? A Longitudinal Study Examining the 'Trade-Offs' People Would Be Willing to Make in Reaching a Brexit Deal

This study uses a technique known as 'stated preference discrete choice experiments' to understand what sort of Brexit the British people really want and what trade-offs they would be willing to make in negotiations for a deal with the EU.

Oct 10, 2018
Commentary

What Does China's Pursuit of a Global Coalition Mean for World Politics?

As disputes between Beijing and Washington over trade and other issues intensify, analysts have highlighted domestic factors as reasons why President Xi Jinping may resist compromise. However, China's pursuit of a greater international leadership role likely plays an overlooked, but increasingly important role.

Oct 8, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

The Impact of Trade Liberalization on Productivity: Evidence from India's Formal and Informal Manufacturing Sectors

This paper was first to consider the effects of India's tariff liberalization on the entire manufacturing industry, both small, informal firms and large, formal firms. The overall effect of the trade reforms is increased productivity in both sectors.

Sep 19, 2018
Commentary

The Implications of U.S.-China Trade Tensions for Japan

Washington and Beijing seem prepared to begin decoupling from one another economically, which puts Tokyo in a difficult position. Japan may have to devise new strategies not only for sustaining its growth, but also for insulating itself from the impact of deteriorating relations between the United States and China.

Sep 18, 2018
Commentary

The Global Order Will Outlast U.S. Leadership

Even if America bails on the international order there is plenty of evidence that Europe, China, Japan, and the rest of the developed world will maintain existing multilateral structures and build new ones. The order will survive but may become less liberal, less democratic, and perhaps less peaceful.

Aug 23, 2018
Commentary

Walking a Fine Line on Russian Sanctions

The United States and its allies are increasingly frustrated over malign activities by Russia. This week the U.S. unveiled new sanctions, and is expected to impose even more in the future. But choosing sanctions requires care. Their purpose should be to penalize Russia for misbehavior, but not to isolate Russians.

Aug 22, 2018
Research Brief

Research Brief

China Belt and Road Initiative: How revival of the silk road could impact world trade

By using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, this study found improving transportation multimodal connectivity has a positive impact on multilateral trade across countries and regions along China Belt and Road Initiative.

Aug 21, 2018
Report

Report

China Belt and Road Initiative: Measuring the impact of improving transportation connectivity on trade in the region

Using both qualitative and quantitative analysis, this study found improving transportation multimodal connectivity has a positive impact on multilateral trade across countries and regions along China Belt and Road Initiative.

Aug 21, 2018
Commentary

The Roots—and Purpose—of the Post-War Order

As the world enters an era of greater international competition, U.S. policymakers should take care not to underestimate the importance of the postwar system. The order is far from a myth; it is the United States' most important competitive advantage.

Aug 7, 2018
Commentary

Bringing Back Sanctions Will Hurt U.S. Allies and Iran, but Will It Help America?

What happens if leaving the Iran nuclear deal and applying “maximum pressure” doesn't lead Iran to change its behavior or the regime to collapse? The Trump administration may find that it's much easier to break a deal than to replace it with something better.

Aug 7, 2018
Commentary

The Security Risks of a Trade War with China

As U.S.-China trade tensions continue to rise, many observers are focused on the potential for a full-fledged trade war that could destabilize the world economy. But there are security concerns as well. A China less constrained by and invested in economic ties with the United States could pose a greater challenge to U.S. foreign policy.

Aug 6, 2018
Commentary

Is India the Weakest Link in the Quad?

India's sustained membership in the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue would fit with the goal of balancing against China to deter it from further militarizing the Indo-Pacific. But New Dehli may be getting cold feet.

Jul 23, 2018
Commentary

Cooperation in the Arctic Likely to Continue—For Now

Risks for serious tensions in the Arctic during the 2020s are likely to be overstated. Key players in the Arctic appear likely to continue working together to enhance the economic potential of the region and resolve conflicts before they emerge, as opportunities in the Arctic continue to grow.

Jul 12, 2018
Commentary

Trump and Putin Should Start Small at Helsinki Summit

Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin will hold their first formal summit on July 16. Their agenda will likely include the main sources of strain in relations, but they might find it easier to make concrete progress if they start with lower-profile issues as Mikhail Gorbachev and Ronald Reagan did at their first summit.

Jul 2, 2018

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RAND Topic:
International Economic Relations

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