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Nuclear Deterrence

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The range of nuclear deterrence strategies includes minimal or "limited" deterrence, massive retaliation with a force greater than that originally used by the aggressor, and mutual assured destruction ("MAD"). From RAND's Soviet-era work on game theory to today's current states of concern, such as North Korea and Iran, RAND has applied strategic analysis to international deterrence efforts, with particular focus on the roles of both diplomacy and missile defense systems in global and regional security.

Commentary

The Iran Deal Will Survive, at Least for Now

Apr 4, 2018

A U.S. unilateral withdrawal from the Iran nuclear deal does not necessarily mean the deal will collapse. But a broader collapse of the agreement along with the imposition of harsh sanctions in the coming months could sharply escalate tensions with Iran.
Article

How Artificial Intelligence Could Increase the Risk of Nuclear War

Apr 24, 2018

Advances in AI have provoked a new kind of arms race among nuclear powers. This technology could challenge the basic rules of nuclear deterrence and lead to catastrophic miscalculations.

Explore Nuclear Deterrence

News Release

News Release

Nonviolent Ways the United States Could Exploit Russian Vulnerabilities

Russia's use of information warfare and its conventional military arsenal make it a formidable opponent, but the state also has significant weaknesses that could be exploited. A range of nonviolent measures could stress Russia's military, its economy, and the regime's political standing at home and abroad.

Apr 24, 2019
Report

Report

Extending Russia: Competing from Advantageous Ground

As the U.S. National Defense Strategy recognizes the United States is currently locked in a great-power competition with Russia. This report analyzes how the United States can compete to its own advantage and capitalize on Russia's weaknesses.

Apr 24, 2019
Research Brief

Ways the United States Could Overextend and Unbalance Russia

Despite its vulnerabilities and anxieties, Russia remains a formidable opponent in a few key domains. What non-violent, cost-imposing measures could the United States pursue to stress Russia's economy, its military, and the regime's political standing at home and abroad?

Apr 24, 2019
Commentary

After the Hanoi Summit

The best-case scenario for future U.S.-North Korea relations is that President Trump and Kim Jong-un remain committed to diplomacy. In the worst case, both countries' frustrations could spiral out of control.

Mar 13, 2019
Commentary

Where Do U.S.-North Korea Relations Go in the Aftermath of the Hanoi Summit?

If Kim Jong-un is sincere about denuclearization, it is time for him to match his words with actions. If North Korea's nuclearization continues, the U.S. government may eventually face some pressure to take military action to stop it.

Mar 13, 2019
Commentary

The Hidden Components of the North Korean Military Challenge

In an era of global competition in which U.S. military resources are stretched thin, the United States should consider looking for opportunities to scale back potential overcommitment. The current inter-Korean dialogue presents such an opportunity.

Mar 12, 2019
Commentary

Declaring an End to the Korean War

President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might agree at their summit this week in Hanoi, Vietnam, to declare an end to the Korean War. Since this conflict stopped 66 years ago, what would be the practical impact of such declaration?

Feb 28, 2019
Commentary

Behind the 'Surprise' Resignation of Iran's Foreign Minister

Mohammad Javad Zarif, Iran's foreign minister, announced his resignation after a nearly six-year tenure. His resignation has sparked as much controversy as his tenure, one dominated by overtures to the West and resulting tensions at home. Although his departure will likely be felt most acutely in Europe, it may have a deeper impact in Tehran.

Feb 26, 2019
Commentary

Engagement with North Korea: Small Steps May Matter More Than Big Ones

Kim Jong-Un has said he wants North Korea to become a normal country. Agreeing to a series of short-term measures could reveal his truthfulness as much as large measures could. This could also pave the way to eventually achieving the larger goals.

Feb 21, 2019
Journal Article

Of Bombs and Bureaucrats: Internal Drivers of Nuclear Force Building in China and the United States

This article examines the domestic influences on US and Chinese nuclear forces. While strategic factors largely drive each side's, underappreciated domestic and organizational factors also influence outcomes.

Feb 8, 2019
Commentary

Hard to Predict Outcome of Second Trump-Kim Summit

It's difficult to predict the outcome of the second summit between Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump. At the first, Kim offered to fully denuclearize during President Trump's first term. But he continued building nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. If Kim keeps stalling, serious tensions could follow.

Feb 6, 2019
Commentary

Why North Korea Sanctions Relief Is Inappropriate at This Time

In early 2018, Kim Jong Un signaled that he was ready to negotiate abandoning North Korea's nuclear weapons with the United States. But since then, Pyongyang hasn't taken steps to denuclearize. The DPRK's actions speak louder than its words.

Nov 26, 2018
Commentary

How America Can Test North Korea's True Intentions

While North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has suggested he may be prepared to abandon his nuclear ambitions, there has been no proof that he is serious. The United States could take steps to discover Kim's true intentions.

Nov 26, 2018
Commentary

North Korean Actions Speak Louder Than Its Words

Kim Jong Un has regularly promised to denuclearize, but he's been all talk. And this year, North Korea has probably built five to nine more nuclear weapons. There are steps that could make a difference if taken before the North Korean nuclear weapon threat grows any further.

Oct 11, 2018
Commentary

Can U.S. Pressure Lead to a New Iran Nuclear Deal?

It could be a mistake for the United States to assume that more pressure will bring Iran closer to ending or reducing its ballistic missile and nuclear programs. When it comes to measures aimed at Iran's nuclear program, more pressure could worsen nuclear risks and further drive a wedge between the United States and its European allies.

Sep 18, 2018
Commentary

Is Nuclear Terrorism Distracting Attention from More Realistic Threats?

A nuclear terrorist attack is currently not a realistic threat. It would require an unprecedented level of sophistication from terrorists. The majority of terrorist attacks are conducted with conventional explosives.

Jul 27, 2018
Commentary

Attempts to Order Geopolitics Have a Sobering History

Past efforts to introduce world order have resulted less from foresighted statecraft than from cataclysmic upheavals such as World War II. If the current international system erodes, what might have to happen for a new one to emerge?

Jul 25, 2018
Multimedia

What's Next for Korea?

In this Call with the Experts, RAND's James Dobbins, Bruce Bennett, and Michael Mazarr discuss the historic summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Jul 10, 2018
Report

Report

Comprehensive Deterrence Forum: Proceedings and Commissioned Papers

On October 30, 2015, U.S. Army Special Operations Command facilitated a forum to explore the concept of comprehensive deterrence. Part I of this report delivers a summary of the forum proceedings, and Part II includes papers examining the concept.

Jun 7, 2018
Commentary

North Korea Is Not Like Libya

The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Jun 1, 2018

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RAND Topic:
Nuclear Deterrence

Topic Synonyms:
Nuclear Strategy

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