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Nuclear Deterrence

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The range of nuclear deterrence strategies includes minimal or "limited" deterrence, massive retaliation with a force greater than that originally used by the aggressor, and mutual assured destruction ("MAD"). From RAND's Soviet-era work on game theory to today's current states of concern, such as North Korea and Iran, RAND has applied strategic analysis to international deterrence efforts, with particular focus on the roles of both diplomacy and missile defense systems in global and regional security.

Commentary

Biden's North Korea Policy Review Is Sparse on Details. Here's One Interpretation

May 6, 2021

The Biden administration recently completed its North Korea policy review. Details have been sparse, but based on prior U.S. dealings with the Kims, some informed guesses about Washington's approach towards Pyongyang under the new administration can be had. Here's one.
Commentary

Nuclear Ban Treaty Offers Rare Chance for Japan

Apr 30, 2021

As the only country to suffer the horrors of wartime atomic bombings, one would assume Japan would eagerly sign any treaty to ban such weapons. Why hasn't Japan signed the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons, which took effect in January 2021?

Explore Nuclear Deterrence

Commentary

Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?

The United States remains committed to the goal of denuclearization of North Korea. China is more interested in maintaining a delicate geopolitical balance to counter U.S. influence in the region and in expanding its own reach. Thus, prospects for productive U.S.-China cooperation on the North Korean nuclear threat seem faint at best.

Jul 14, 2021
Commentary

North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China

Despite the current border closures between their two countries, China and North Korea remain resolutely pledged to a “blood-alliance.” But this partnership has vastly different implications depending on which side of the border you consider.

Jul 13, 2021
Commentary

Why Iran May Be in No Hurry to Get Nuclear Weapons Even Without a Nuclear Deal

History shows that many countries with advanced nuclear technologies but without nuclear bombs opt to stay that way. There are reasons to believe that Iran, too, may choose to remain non-nuclear at least in the foreseeable future.

Jun 28, 2021
Report

How Would NATO Compete with Russia?

Western threat perceptions of Russia have risen sharply in recent years, bolstered by its acts of military aggression, political interference, and efforts to expand its global influence. What would be the strengths, weaknesses, and risks for the United States, NATO, and Russia in a large-scale war?

Jun 22, 2021
Journal Article

Bomber Strike Packages with Chinese Characteristics

This book chapter traces the development of China's bomber strike packages and assesses how these flights support operational training for Chinese air force wartime missions.

Jun 10, 2021
Report

Deciphering Chinese Deterrence Signalling in the New Era: An Analytic Framework and Seven Case Studies

The authors examine how China's approach to deterrence signalling is evolving along with its expanding objectives, growing military capabilities, and the availability of new communication channels—and how regional countries should respond.

May 27, 2021
Blog

COVID-19 Demographic Trends, Vaccinating 'High-Contact' People, the Iran Threat Network: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how the pandemic is shaping demographic trends, targeting vaccines to "high-contact" people, the Iran Threat Network, and more.

Apr 16, 2021
Commentary

The Biden Administration Will Find It Difficult to Contain Israel and Iran's Escalating Tensions

Iran is blaming Israel for a blackout at one of its nuclear research facilities. This attack is likely to complicate nuclear diplomacy and further erode trust between Tehran and Washington. Also, it may only incentivize Iran to advance its nuclear program.

Apr 14, 2021
Multimedia

The North Korean Nuclear Threat

In this Call with the Experts podcast, Jeffrey Hiday, director of Media Relations at RAND, is joined by Bruce Bennett, RAND adjunct international/defense researcher, Bruce Bechtol, professor of political science at Angelo State University, and Bruce Klingner, senior research fellow with the Heritage Foundation, for a discussion about the North Korean nuclear threat.

Apr 12, 2021
Report

Countering the Risks of North Korean Nuclear Weapons

There is a growing gap between North Korea's nuclear weapon threat and South Korean and U.S. capabilities to defeat it. Because these capabilities will take years to develop, attention should be focused on where the threat could be in the mid to late 2020s and strategy options that could be employed to counter it.

Apr 12, 2021
Report

The U.S.-Japan Alliance and Rapid Change on the Korean Peninsula: Proceedings from a Pair of Conferences

Few areas of the world are more geostrategically important to the United States and Japan than the Korean Peninsula. These conference proceedings explore how changes on the Korean Peninsula are seen by observers in Japan and the United States.

Mar 26, 2021
Multimedia

RAND Remote: A Disarming Mission, A RAND Conversation with William Perry and Tom Collina

In this RAND Remote conversation, former Secretary of Defense William Perry and Tom Collina, director of policy at Ploughshares Fund, discuss nuclear executive authority and topics covered in their book, The Button: The New Nuclear Arms Race and Presidential Power from Truman to Trump.

Mar 25, 2021
Commentary

Arms Control Held Hostage

President-elect Joe Biden and Russian President Vladimir Putin have wisely promised to extend the 2010 New START Treaty, which cuts long-range nuclear arms. The two leaders may also pursue a broader follow-on accord, but frigid U.S.-Russian relations could put this out of reach. Progress on arms control often comes when political winds are warmer.

Dec 28, 2020
Commentary

North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen

President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program. But it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?

Sep 28, 2020
Report

How Does North Korean Leadership Make Decisions?

With talks between the United States and North Korea at a standstill, U.S. policymakers must consider what the regime might do next and know what signs or decisions to look for. Will Kim open the DPRK economy? What if conventional deterrence fails on the Korean Peninsula? And what could lead to the use of nuclear weapons?

Aug 20, 2020
Blog

Summer Reading List for Congress

During the August recess Hill staff should have an opportunity to step back from the fast pace of votes and hearing preparation to examine priorities for the fall and beyond. This list of must-read research and commentary covers some policy issues they will likely be addressing after the break.

Aug 18, 2020
Commentary

In North Korea, The U.S. Could Take the Lead

North Korea is hurting: its economy is stagnant and it is having trouble feeding even its elites because of the UN/U.S. sanctions designed to pressure North Korean toward denuclearization. A combined carrot and stick approach may help overcome some of North Korea's reluctance to negotiate the future of its nuclear weapons program.

Aug 17, 2020
Commentary

Negotiating with Great Powers on Nuclear Arms

New START, the U.S.-Russia arms control treaty, expires in February 2021. Washington insists that any follow-on accord must include China. But overcoming Beijing's reticence to engage in nuclear talks will likely take deft diplomacy, time, and patience.

Aug 3, 2020

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RAND Topic:
Nuclear Deterrence

Topic Synonyms:
Nuclear Strategy

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