Nuclear Deterrence

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The range of nuclear deterrence strategies includes minimal or "limited" deterrence, massive retaliation with a force greater than that originally used by the aggressor, and mutual assured destruction ("MAD"). From RAND's Soviet-era work on game theory to today's current states of concern, such as North Korea and Iran, RAND has applied strategic analysis to international deterrence efforts, with particular focus on the roles of both diplomacy and missile defense systems in global and regional security.

Report
Graph Theoretic Algorithms for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent Program
The Ground Based Strategic Deterrent is a complete replacement for an aging intercontinental ballistic missile system that is currently under development. What are quantitative methods that can be used to make the unified certification process for nuclear systems more rigorous and efficient?
Nov 8, 2021
Report
Weighing the Cost and Necessity of Nuclear Modernization
The United States has fielded a Triad of air-, sea-, and land-based nuclear delivery systems since the 1950s. Major components are nearing the end of their service lives, raising the question of whether to extend or replace them. Meanwhile, Russia and China continue to modernize, diversify, and expand their nuclear arsenals.
Jan 3, 2022

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Commentary
A Moment of Strategic Clarity
With the Russian mobilization and declared annexation, whatever prospects there were for a negotiated peace seem to have all but vanished. Any result short of Ukrainian victory will be, in the long run, a worse outcome for the rules-based international order.
Oct 3, 2022
Blog
Veterans Health Care, Media Literacy, Sleep Retreats: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the challenges of VA community care, the importance of improving middle schoolers' media literacy skills, tips to improve sleep, and more.
Sep 9, 2022
Blog
Back to School, Vaccinating Kids, Space Security: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the well-being of America's educators, the effort to vaccinate kids and teens, security in outer space, and more.
Sep 2, 2022
Report
Potential Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO
A Russia-NATO war is far from an inevitable outcome of the current conflict in Ukraine. U.S. and allied policymakers should be concerned with specific pathways and potential triggers, but they need not operate under the assumption that every action will entail acute escalation risks.
Jul 26, 2022
Commentary
Three Principles for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security
In his inaugural address in 1998, former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung defined three principles for Korean Peninsula peace and security. How might these principles be adjusted to manage today's changing North Korean threats and the Korean security environment?
May 20, 2022
Journal Article
Nuclear-Use Cases for Contemplating Crisis and Conflict on the Korean Peninsula
The paper identifies possible cases/scenarios that would lead to first use of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.
Apr 5, 2022
Commentary
A Renewed Nuclear Deal With Iran: Turning Back the Clock?
Diplomats from Europe, the United States, Russia, China, and Iran are in Vienna trying to revive the Iran nuclear agreement of 2015. But even if negotiations succeed, the post-deal environment could be much more unstable than it was seven years ago.
Mar 4, 2022
Report
Instability in the U.S.-Russia Deterrence Relationship
U.S.-Russian strategic stability is based on mutual vulnerability to retaliation, which eliminates the incentive to strike first. But the United States has developed counterforce capabilities that Moscow fears could be used for a first strike. What could be done to address Russia's concerns and increase stability?
Feb 17, 2022
Blog
RAND Commentary Highlights of 2021
Vaccine rollouts, an attack on the U.S. Capitol, massive ransomware attacks, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, record numbers of job openings and people quitting, and more. RAND researchers weighed in on all these topics and more.
Dec 21, 2021
Commentary
North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal and Prospects for Regional Peace
Nuclear talks between the United States and North Korea have hovered at a standstill since 2019. With the door to diplomacy seemingly closed and North Korea marching forward on weapons development and making threatening statements, what are the prospects for Pyongyang's denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula?
Dec 16, 2021
Commentary
Nuclear Strategists Know How Dangerous the Debt Fight Is
Nuclear-war strategists' work offers a warning for Congress: The more times a game is played, the more treacherous it becomes, because when both sides believe catastrophe will always be averted in the end, each behaves more rashly. In the debt-ceiling dispute, the United States could end up defaulting precisely because each side keeps waiting for the other to blink.
Nov 29, 2021
Blog
North Korea, Sexual Violence in the U.S. Military, America's Labor Shortage: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on dealing with a nuclear North Korea, preventing sexual violence in the military, supporting immigrant children in U.S. schools, and more.
Nov 5, 2021
Report
A Realistic Approach for Dealing with North Korea's Nuclear Weapons
Pursuing the unachievable goal of convincing North Korea to surrender its nuclear weapons can only complicate the real challenge of managing a nuclear-armed North Korea. The United States and its allies should instead focus on deterrence and a series of negotiated agreements to control further development.
Nov 3, 2021
Blog
Nuclear Deterrence, COVID-19 and Infant Deaths, Criminal Justice Reform: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on why the United States doesn’t need more nuclear weapons, increased infant deaths during the pandemic, preventing veteran suicide, and more.
Oct 22, 2021
Commentary
Reducing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Could Make North Korea Happy
The threats emanating from North Korea pose a useful case study for the potential implications of reducing the role of U.S. nuclear weapons. Additional U.S. nuclear deterrence declaratory strategy, backed up by appropriate nuclear weapon capabilities and planning, may be needed.
Oct 20, 2021
Commentary
The U.S. Doesn't Need More Nuclear Weapons to Counter China's New Missile Silos
There's little reason for the United States to worry much about whatever the Chinese military is building in hundreds of new missile silos in China. America and its allies have ways to counter any threats these silo fields pose.
Oct 18, 2021
Report
Engaging with North Korea: Lessons from Game Theory
Applying game theory to the situation in North Korea may provide insights into how the United States can deal with Kim Jong-un and carry out negotiations on denuclearization.
Aug 12, 2021
Commentary
Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?
The United States remains committed to the goal of denuclearization of North Korea. China is more interested in maintaining a delicate geopolitical balance to counter U.S. influence in the region and in expanding its own reach. Thus, prospects for productive U.S.-China cooperation on the North Korean nuclear threat seem faint at best.
Jul 14, 2021

RAND Topic:
Nuclear Deterrence

Topic Synonyms:
Nuclear Strategy

Nuclear Deterrence

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