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Nuclear Deterrence

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The range of nuclear deterrence strategies includes minimal or "limited" deterrence, massive retaliation with a force greater than that originally used by the aggressor, and mutual assured destruction ("MAD"). From RAND's Soviet-era work on game theory to today's current states of concern, such as North Korea and Iran, RAND has applied strategic analysis to international deterrence efforts, with particular focus on the roles of both diplomacy and missile defense systems in global and regional security.

Commentary

Where Do U.S.–North Korea Relations Go After the Hanoi Summit?

Mar 13, 2019

If Kim Jong-un is sincere about denuclearization, it is time for him to match his words with actions. If North Korea's nuclearization continues, the U.S. government may eventually face some pressure to take military action to stop it.
Commentary

Can Anyone Save the Iran Nuclear Deal Now?

May 10, 2019

Europe faces mounting pressure from both Tehran and Washington regarding the Iran nuclear deal. European countries could take steps to signal their commitment to upholding the deal, but doing so may alienate the United States.

Explore Nuclear Deterrence

Blog

New START, Trump's Middle East Peace Plan, New Tobacco Products: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on why the United States should extend the New START agreement, the Trump administration's Middle East peace plan, new tobacco products, and more.

Feb 21, 2020
Report

The Military Case for Extending New START

The most prudent course of action would be for Washington to extend the U.S.-Russia New START agreement before it expires in February 2021. This would constrain Russia's nuclear forces covered by the treaty for five more years. And it would buy time to pursue multilateral negotiations that also include China.

Feb 14, 2020
Commentary

Stabilizing the Nuclear Cold War

Russia and the United States are still locked in a nuclear cold war. Thousands of nuclear weapons are deployed, some on high alert. Although the United States prudently withdrew from several past arms control treaties with Russia, it could be in America's interest to extend New START.

Feb 13, 2020
Commentary

Jumpstarting Arms Control Talks with Russia: A Low-Risk Gambit

In 2019, Russia proposed a moratorium on missile deployments in Europe. If the United States does not accept, it could increase the threat to NATO allies and provide Moscow with more bargaining chips in future arms negotiations.

Feb 13, 2020
Report

What Provokes Putin's Russia?

Even with an understanding of what Russia considers to be redlines, predicting its reactions is challenging. An analysis of past instances of Russian escalation—and instances when redlines were crossed but Russia did not respond—offers guidance for U.S. and NATO deterrence efforts.

Jan 29, 2020
Commentary

North Korea Holds Most of the Cards in Nuclear Negotiations

North Korea has been reminding the United States that the window to negotiate a nuclear deal is closing. Pyongyang will likely continue trying to force Washington's hand into a deal that allows North Korea to keep its weapons while still reaping economic and political concessions.

Dec 20, 2019
Commentary

AI for Peace

The United States should apply lessons from the 70-year history of governing nuclear technology by building a framework for governing AI military technology. An AI for Peace program should articulate the dangers of this new technology, principles to manage the dangers, and a structure to shape the incentives for other states.

Dec 13, 2019
Commentary

Return of Nuclear Doomsday

Elder statesmen are again warning of nuclear dangers. But have they risen? Maybe, but they remain only faint echoes of Cold War era risks, creating an opportunity to deliberately and carefully take steps to avoid future risks.

Dec 12, 2019
Commentary

Understanding Iran's Nuclear Escalation Strategy

Throughout 2019, Iran has gradually reduced its compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. What are its goals in doing this? Why has it adopted this strategy? And perhaps most importantly, how far does Iran intend to go?

Dec 12, 2019
Report

Managing Nuclear Modernization Challenges for the U.S. Air Force: A Mission-Centric Approach

This report identifies and describes means to allay significant challenges to the fielding of new Air Force nuclear weapon systems, with a focus on the integrated planning and preparation for mission success across programs.

Oct 29, 2019
Report

Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States

This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's current posture is weak.

Oct 24, 2019
Commentary

U.S. Economic War on China Weakens Nuclear North Korea, Too

An effective way to bend North Korea toward denuclearization may be exerting consistent and targeted pressure on China. Diminishing Beijing's relevance isn't a cure-all. But it could pierce Kim's illusion of invincibility and place him in a bind to make some concessions.

Oct 18, 2019
Multimedia

Extending Russia

What policies could the United States adopt to stress Russia’s military, its economy, or the regime’s political standing at home and abroad? In this congressional briefing summary, former Ambassador James Dobbins, Raphael Cohen, and Howard Shatz discuss Russia’s economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties; nonviolent, cost-imposing options that the United States and its allies could pursue to stress Russia; and the costs, benefits, and implications of those options.

Sep 5, 2019
Blog

Youth Sports, Autonomous Vehicles, Mental Health: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on why low-income children aren't playing sports, who's liable when autonomous vehicles get hacked, supporting children with mental health issues, and more.

Jul 19, 2019
Commentary

Why U.S. Negotiators Face a Tough Task After the Trump-Kim DMZ Meeting

Denuclearization talks between the United States and North Korea may be under time constraints tied to America's next presidential election. This further complicates the task facing U.S. negotiators, who seek to reach a deal that endures beyond 2020.

Jul 15, 2019
Commentary

How Trump Reset U.S.–North Korea Relations

The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the DMZ may lead to follow-on talks. But the success of future negotiations depends on Kim actually taking action to denuclearize.

Jul 2, 2019
Blog

Iran, School Discipline, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the costs of U.S.–Iran confrontation, discipline reform in America's schools, why the North Korea problem is bigger than nukes, and more.

Jun 21, 2019
Commentary

A Post-2020 U.S. Return to the Iran Nuclear Deal?

Now that the United States is out of the Iran nuclear deal, signing back on will not be as simple or as practical as some may hope. Too much has happened since it was first inked in 2015. With the political landscape in Tehran and Washington still taking shape, those who want to return to some kind of deal should start planning.

Jun 20, 2019
Commentary

The Costs of Confrontation with Iran Are Mounting

Even if the United States and Iran avoid a direct military clash, recent escalation and the U.S. maximum pressure campaign are exacting long-term costs for U.S. interests and regional stability in ways that may be difficult if not impossible to reverse.

Jun 17, 2019
Commentary

One Year After Singapore: The North Korea Problem Is Bigger Than Nukes

After two summits between the United States and North Korea, and little to show in the way of deliverables on dismantlement, hopes that a third summit may yield a denuclearization deal seem a bit unrealistic. Essentially, there has been no indication of intent on Kim's part to denuclearize. But the North Korea problem is much greater than nukes.

Jun 17, 2019

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RAND Topic:
Nuclear Deterrence

Topic Synonyms:
Nuclear Strategy

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