Nuclear Deterrence

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The range of nuclear deterrence strategies includes minimal or "limited" deterrence, massive retaliation with a force greater than that originally used by the aggressor, and mutual assured destruction ("MAD"). From RAND's Soviet-era work on game theory to today's current states of concern, such as North Korea and Iran, RAND has applied strategic analysis to international deterrence efforts, with particular focus on the roles of both diplomacy and missile defense systems in global and regional security.

Report
Graph Theoretic Algorithms for the Ground Based Strategic Deterrent Program
The Ground Based Strategic Deterrent is a complete replacement for an aging intercontinental ballistic missile system that is currently under development. What are quantitative methods that can be used to make the unified certification process for nuclear systems more rigorous and efficient?
Nov 8, 2021
Report
Weighing the Cost and Necessity of Nuclear Modernization
The United States has fielded a Triad of air-, sea-, and land-based nuclear delivery systems since the 1950s. Major components are nearing the end of their service lives, raising the question of whether to extend or replace them. Meanwhile, Russia and China continue to modernize, diversify, and expand their nuclear arsenals.
Jan 3, 2022

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Commentary
Japanese 'Counterstrike' May Be Good for ROK Security
Fully coordinated, the South Korean Kill Chain and Japanese counterstrike capability could be more effective in stopping North Korea from causing damage. And they could be more likely to deter Kim Jong-un, as Pyongyang recognizes that its efforts to militarily dominate the ROK are unlikely to succeed.
Dec 28, 2022
Report
Responding to a Russian Attack on NATO During the Ukraine War
The Ukraine war has created a unique set of circumstances that make a limited Russian attack against a NATO target plausible. If such an attack were to occur, how might the United States and NATO respond?
Dec 20, 2022
Commentary
North Korea's Version of 'Take Your Daughter to Work Day'
With the spotlight having long been fixed on the nuclear issue, the public debut of Kim Jong-un's “most beloved” child seems as though it could be an impeccably timed distraction to keep the international community from focusing on seeking an enduring solution to Pyongyang's rapidly advancing weapons systems.
Dec 12, 2022
Commentary
Why Putin's Nuclear Gambit Is a Huge Mistake
Russia is losing in Ukraine, and the rhetoric of Russian leaders has recently become ever more apocalyptic. The United States and its allies should be prepared in case Russia goes down the nuclear path, but fear should not drive the Western response to Russia's nuclear bluster.
Oct 19, 2022
Commentary
Could K-Pop Help Deter Kim Jong-un's Provocations?
The United States and Republic of Korea could be more specific and creative in seeking to deter Kim Jong-un. The global popularity of K-Pop could be part of the strategy.
Oct 11, 2022
Commentary
The Iran Nuclear Deal: Is the Juice Still Worth the Squeeze?
The talks to reinstate the Iran nuclear deal have been dragging on for 18 months. But the negotiations are not about very much; the general contours of the original agreement still hold. As the clock keeps ticking, though, it gets harder to revive it. At some point, the juice won't be worth the squeeze.
Oct 10, 2022
Commentary
A Moment of Strategic Clarity
With the Russian mobilization and declared annexation, whatever prospects there were for a negotiated peace seem to have all but vanished. Any result short of Ukrainian victory will be, in the long run, a worse outcome for the rules-based international order.
Oct 3, 2022
Blog
Veterans Health Care, Media Literacy, Sleep Retreats: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the challenges of VA community care, the importance of improving middle schoolers' media literacy skills, tips to improve sleep, and more.
Sep 9, 2022
Blog
Back to School, Vaccinating Kids, Space Security: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the well-being of America's educators, the effort to vaccinate kids and teens, security in outer space, and more.
Sep 2, 2022
Report
Potential Pathways to Russian Escalation Against NATO
A Russia-NATO war is far from an inevitable outcome of the current conflict in Ukraine. U.S. and allied policymakers should be concerned with specific pathways and potential triggers, but they need not operate under the assumption that every action will entail acute escalation risks.
Jul 26, 2022
Commentary
Three Principles for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security
In his inaugural address in 1998, former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung defined three principles for Korean Peninsula peace and security. How might these principles be adjusted to manage today's changing North Korean threats and the Korean security environment?
May 20, 2022
Journal Article
Nuclear-Use Cases for Contemplating Crisis and Conflict on the Korean Peninsula
The paper identifies possible cases/scenarios that would lead to first use of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.
Apr 5, 2022
Commentary
A Renewed Nuclear Deal With Iran: Turning Back the Clock?
Diplomats from Europe, the United States, Russia, China, and Iran are in Vienna trying to revive the Iran nuclear agreement of 2015. But even if negotiations succeed, the post-deal environment could be much more unstable than it was seven years ago.
Mar 4, 2022
Report
Instability in the U.S.-Russia Deterrence Relationship
U.S.-Russian strategic stability is based on mutual vulnerability to retaliation, which eliminates the incentive to strike first. But the United States has developed counterforce capabilities that Moscow fears could be used for a first strike. What could be done to address Russia's concerns and increase stability?
Feb 17, 2022
Blog
RAND Commentary Highlights of 2021
Vaccine rollouts, an attack on the U.S. Capitol, massive ransomware attacks, the withdrawal from Afghanistan, record numbers of job openings and people quitting, and more. RAND researchers weighed in on all these topics and more.
Dec 21, 2021
Commentary
North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal and Prospects for Regional Peace
Nuclear talks between the United States and North Korea have hovered at a standstill since 2019. With the door to diplomacy seemingly closed and North Korea marching forward on weapons development and making threatening statements, what are the prospects for Pyongyang's denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula?
Dec 16, 2021
Commentary
Nuclear Strategists Know How Dangerous the Debt Fight Is
Nuclear-war strategists' work offers a warning for Congress: The more times a game is played, the more treacherous it becomes, because when both sides believe catastrophe will always be averted in the end, each behaves more rashly. In the debt-ceiling dispute, the United States could end up defaulting precisely because each side keeps waiting for the other to blink.
Nov 29, 2021
Blog
North Korea, Sexual Violence in the U.S. Military, America's Labor Shortage: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on dealing with a nuclear North Korea, preventing sexual violence in the military, supporting immigrant children in U.S. schools, and more.
Nov 5, 2021

RAND Topic:
Nuclear Deterrence

Topic Synonyms:
Nuclear Strategy

Nuclear Deterrence

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