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Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

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Nuclear weapons, the means of producing them, and their potential use play significant roles in international relations and homeland security. Throughout its history, RAND has provided detailed analyses and recommendations for defense planners and helped policymakers make informed national security decisions with regard to the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty and the nuclear activities of India, Pakistan, China, North Korea, Iran, and other nations.

Commentary
Weighing the Cost and Necessity of Nuclear Modernization
The United States has fielded a Triad of air-, sea-, and land-based nuclear delivery systems since the 1950s. Major components are nearing the end of their service lives, raising the question of whether to extend or replace them. Meanwhile, Russia and China continue to modernize, diversify, and expand their nuclear arsenals.
Jan 3, 2022
Commentary
North Korea's Nuclear Arsenal and Prospects for Regional Peace
Nuclear talks between the United States and North Korea have hovered at a standstill since 2019. With the door to diplomacy seemingly closed and North Korea marching forward on weapons development and making threatening statements, what are the prospects for Pyongyang's denuclearization and peace on the Korean Peninsula?
Dec 16, 2021

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Report
Designing A Strange Game: A Nuclear Wargame for the 21st Century
This report details the theoretical motivation and design of a wargame meant to address the lack of serious games that consider nuclear weapon employment and tools available to teach stakeholders about the challenges of nuclear weapon employment.
Nov 28, 2023
Commentary
Deterrence of North Korean Limited Nuclear Attacks
No single action is likely to deter North Korean nuclear weapon use. But a combination of efforts may convince Kim Jong-un that any use of nuclear weapons for coercion would be very dangerous to his future, and could be a powerful approach to deterring North Korea.
Nov 27, 2023
Blog
'Israel's 9/11,' Promoting the 988 Hotline, the Future of Space: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on why the Oct. 7 attack wasn't Israel's 9/11, humanity's future approach to space, the pressing need to ensure more people know about the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline, and more.
Nov 17, 2023
Report
South Korea Needs Greater Nuclear Assurance
With growing nuclear threats from North Korea and China, there has been considerable interest in South Korea in developing its own nuclear weapons. But doing so could become a major disaster. The United States should bring greater strategic clarity to its nuclear umbrella commitment to South Korea.
Oct 29, 2023
Commentary
What North Korea Is Learning from the Hamas-Israel War
South Korea and the United States should rein in North Korean nuclear weapon production and prepare to respond to escalated North Korean coercion. While Kim Jong-un probably won't resort to a Hamas-style attack, he certainly shares Hamas' goal of cultivating U.S. reluctance to get involved militarily in the region.
Oct 24, 2023
Blog
Israel-Hamas War, Overdose Deaths, Striking Health Care Workers: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on historical context for the Israel-Hamas war, the link between education and fatal overdoses, why U.S. health care workers are striking, and more.
Oct 13, 2023
Commentary
Nuclear Weapons in the North Korean World View
As Kim Jong-un's actions become more threatening, the risks of a catastrophic accidental nuclear war become more likely. The United States needs to make North Korean denuclearization a long-term objective but focus in the immediate future on limiting the size and danger of the North Korean nuclear weapon force.
Oct 11, 2023
Blog
Nuclear Deterrence, Russia and Iran, Deepfakes: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on how much is “enough” for U.S. nuclear forces, the budding Russia-Iran partnership, the challenge of detecting deepfakes, and more.
Oct 6, 2023
Report
What If Russia Crossed the Nuclear Threshold in Ukraine?
The dynamic between Ukrainian momentum and Russia's desperation has raised concerns that the Kremlin might resort to nuclear escalation to turn the tide of the war. How could the United States expand its options to respond to potentially produce better outcomes?
Oct 5, 2023
Commentary
North Korea and China Aren't the Allies You Think They Are
China and North Korea have a history of friction, despite being seen as allies. As Russia, China, and North Korea move toward a closer trilateral partnership, the United States and its allies need to recognize that there are seams in the relationships that can be used to undermine it.
Sep 27, 2023
Commentary
How Much Is Enough for U.S. Nuclear Forces?
Deterrence is difficult because it's about perceptions and resolve rather than just pure numbers. Potential adversaries need to perceive that the United States has enough nuclear weapons to deter them, and also that U.S. officials believe the United States has enough that Washington's resolve will not falter in the face of provocation or coercion.
Sep 27, 2023
Commentary
North Korea, Russia and China: The Developing Trilateral Imperialist Partnership
There are no easy ways for the United States and its allies to counter the developing Russia-China–North Korea partnership. But there are options to consider and steps to take. There are also fissures in their relationships to exploit.
Sep 13, 2023
Blog
The State of Public Education, the Opioid Crisis, Defending Taiwan: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the state of public education in America right now, a missing piece of the strategy for addressing the opioid crisis, emerging technology that could help defend Taiwan, and more.
Sep 1, 2023
Commentary
A Trilateral Summit to Deal with Trilateral Threats
The leaders of Japan, South Korea, and the United States held a trilateral summit in August, focused on countering military threats in East Asia. Not surprisingly, China and North Korea were upset by the summit, designed as it was to respond to their military build-ups.
Aug 29, 2023
Commentary
Hard Times for U.S.-Russian Nuclear Arms Control
New START is slated to expire in February 2026 and cannot be extended. The next chapter in U.S.-Russia nuclear arms control, if there is to be one, may not be written until rulers in Moscow ease repression at home, pull troops out of Ukraine, and recognize the mutual benefits of reducing, rather than stoking, nuclear tensions.
Aug 28, 2023
Report
Alternative Futures Following a Great Power War: Volume 1, Scenarios, Findings, and Recommendations
RAND researchers generated four plausible near-term great power war scenarios and assessed how they could shape the postwar strategic environment.
May 9, 2023
Research Brief
The Aftermath of a Great Power War
A review of historical great power wars shows that prewar predictions about who would fight, how long the war would last, and how the world would look afterward were often wrong. It's important to understand what the outcomes of different conflicts could look like and how to better prepare for them.
May 9, 2023
Blog
Violence in Sudan, Alcohol Use, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the violence in Sudan, preventing alcohol-related deaths, the North Korean nuclear threat, and more.
Apr 28, 2023
Commentary
Countering Russia's Nuclear Threat in Europe
President Vladimir Putin's announced plan to put nuclear arms in Belarus may pose risks to NATO's nuclear posture. Three decades after the Soviet collapse, some allies might be uneasy about reenergizing NATO's nuclear mission. But others might argue that not responding to Russia's plans could cause the Kremlin to doubt NATO's nuclear credibility.
Apr 20, 2023
Commentary
How Kim's Fears Shape North Korea's Nuclear Agenda
North Korea has ramped up the frequency and intensity of its provocations, continuing its nuclear weapon–buildup while threatening attacks against South Korea and the United States. Why is Kim Jong-un making such excessive investments in North Korea's nuclear and weapons programs and showing off its capabilities?
Apr 19, 2023

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RAND Topic:
Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

John V. Parachini

Senior International and Defense Researcher, former Director of RAND National Defense Research Institute's Intelligence Policy Center

John Parachini (he, him, his) is a senior international and defense researcher, former director of the RAND Intelligence Policy Center, and a member of the Pardee RAND Graduate School faculty. His primary areas of research include intelligence, counterterrorism, weapons proliferation, and…
Karl P. Mueller

Senior Political Scientist

Karl P. Mueller is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation. He specializes in research related to military and national security strategy, particularly coercion, deterrence, and escalation.

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