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Military Equipment

Cost growth in the development and fielding of technologically advanced military equipment has become a major economic burden for many nations and is expected to be an enduring and prevalent problem. RAND research has provided cost analyses and recommendations to help policymakers and military leaders develop improved cost-estimating tools and formulate policies that mitigate cost growth in weapon system acquisition practices.

Report

Thinking Machines Will Change Future Warfare

Until now, deterrence has been about humans trying to dissuade other humans from doing something. But what if the thinking is done by AI and autonomous systems? A wargame explored what happens to deterrence when decisions can be made at machine speeds and when states can put fewer human lives at risk.

Jan 27, 2020
Commentary

Japan's North Korea Challenge in 2020

North Korea began 2020 by announcing a shift toward a more hard-line foreign policy approach. While this is bad news for all countries in the region, it is particularly unwelcome for Japan.

Jan 27, 2020
Report

Acquisition and Use of MANPADS Against Commercial Aviation: Risks, Proliferation, Mitigation, and Cost of an Attack

This report provides a summary of the risks, proliferation, costs of man-portable air defense system attacks against commercial aviation targets. It also presents mitigation options against such an attack.

Dec 30, 2019
Commentary

North Korea Holds Most of the Cards in Nuclear Negotiations

North Korea has been reminding the United States that the window to negotiate a nuclear deal is closing. Pyongyang will likely continue trying to force Washington's hand into a deal that allows North Korea to keep its weapons while still reaping economic and political concessions.

Dec 20, 2019
Report

How Well Is DoD Positioned for AI?

The U.S. Department of Defense has articulated an ambitious vision and strategy for artificial intelligence. But if it wants to get the maximum benefit from AI-enhanced systems, then it will need to improve its posture along multiple dimensions.

Dec 17, 2019
News Release

News Release

Pentagon's Ambitious Vision and Strategy for AI Not Yet Backed by Sufficient Visibility or Resources

The U.S. Department of Defense has articulated an ambitious vision and strategy for artificial intelligence (AI) with the Joint Artificial Intelligence Center as the focal point, but the DoD has yet to provide the JAIC with the visibility, authorities and resource commitments needed to scale AI and its impact across the department.

Dec 17, 2019
Commentary

AI for Peace

The United States should apply lessons from the 70-year history of governing nuclear technology by building a framework for governing AI military technology. An AI for Peace program should articulate the dangers of this new technology, principles to manage the dangers, and a structure to shape the incentives for other states.

Dec 13, 2019
Commentary

Can Anything Stop the Flow of Advanced Weapons into Libya?

Weapons proliferation has been a security concern for Libya and its neighbors since the revolution of 2011. If foreign arms transfers into Libya aren't reduced, the country's security situation will continue to deteriorate, giving militant groups a chance to increase their lethality and further destabilize the region.

Dec 13, 2019
Commentary

Return of Nuclear Doomsday

Elder statesmen are again warning of nuclear dangers. But have they risen? Maybe, but they remain only faint echoes of Cold War era risks, creating an opportunity to deliberately and carefully take steps to avoid future risks.

Dec 12, 2019
Commentary

Understanding Iran's Nuclear Escalation Strategy

Throughout 2019, Iran has gradually reduced its compliance with the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action. What are its goals in doing this? Why has it adopted this strategy? And perhaps most importantly, how far does Iran intend to go?

Dec 12, 2019
Commentary

B-21 Raider Stealth Bomber Is Handy, but It May Not Be the Perfect Fit

Some in the Australian security community have called for significant changes to the Australian Defence Force structure in response to changing global strategic conditions. Before Australia considers any new long-range strike capabilities, an analysis of alternatives that examines both cost and capability is essential.

Dec 2, 2019
Report

Managing Nuclear Modernization Challenges for the U.S. Air Force: A Mission-Centric Approach

This report identifies and describes means to allay significant challenges to the fielding of new Air Force nuclear weapon systems, with a focus on the integrated planning and preparation for mission success across programs.

Oct 29, 2019
Report

Exploring the Role Nuclear Weapons Could Play in Deterring Russian Threats to the Baltic States

This report examines what role nonstrategic nuclear weapons could play in deterring a Russian invasion of the Baltic states, where the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's current posture is weak.

Oct 24, 2019
Report

Could Autonomous Drones Make Blood Deliveries?

Blood must be transported and stored in a certain way, and it has a finite shelf life. Unmanned systems offer flexibility in chaotic or uncertain environments. Could autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles make the military's blood supply network more resilient?

Oct 18, 2019
Commentary

U.S. Economic War on China Weakens Nuclear North Korea, Too

An effective way to bend North Korea toward denuclearization may be exerting consistent and targeted pressure on China. Diminishing Beijing's relevance isn't a cure-all. But it could pierce Kim's illusion of invincibility and place him in a bind to make some concessions.

Oct 18, 2019
Report

Next-Generation Wargaming for the U.S. Marine Corps

The U.S. Marine Corps has an opportunity to adopt wargaming best practices, tools, and approaches from other sources and adapt them to suit its needs. What courses of action should the Marine Corps take toward building its next-generation wargaming concept?

Oct 16, 2019
Commentary

Nuclear Subs Idea Worth Floating

Whether Australia should operate and maintain nuclear-propelled attack submarines has been debated for years. While controversial to some, the option of nuclear subs in Australia's future fleet may be a useful alternative given trends in the country's security environment.

Oct 1, 2019
Multimedia

Extending Russia

What policies could the United States adopt to stress Russia’s military, its economy, or the regime’s political standing at home and abroad? In this congressional briefing summary, former Ambassador James Dobbins, Raphael Cohen, and Howard Shatz discuss Russia’s economic, political, and military vulnerabilities and anxieties; nonviolent, cost-imposing options that the United States and its allies could pursue to stress Russia; and the costs, benefits, and implications of those options.

Sep 5, 2019
Report

The tanKer Aerial Refueling Model for Analysis (KARMA)

This report describes the algorithms used in the tanKer Air Refueling Model for Analysis (KARMA) and explains how to use the model. KARMA simulates the extent to which a tanker force can aerially refuel combat aircraft in a denied environment.

Sep 4, 2019
Report

Report

Improving DoD's Weapon System Support Program: A Critical Readiness Driver Approach

The readiness and sustainability of weapon systems is a key factor in defense. The Weapon System Support Program prioritizes system parts, but performance is lacking. RAND examines program effectiveness and gives recommendations for the future.

Aug 29, 2019

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