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Missiles

Journal Article

Through the Looking Glass: Chinese Open Source Assessments of North Korea's Ballistic Missile Capabilities

This report examines Chinese assessments of North Korean ballistic missile capabilities between 1998 and 2017. Chinese analyses mirror Western conclusions that North Korea has a functional ICBM that can reach the U.S. with a nuclear weapon.

May 14, 2021
Commentary

Is Japan's Interest in Enemy Base Attack Capabilities a Good Idea?

In the span of a month, Tokyo has rapidly gone from canceling a ballistic missile defense system to considering strike capabilities against foreign adversaries. Is Japan on the precipice of dramatically changing the way it uses its military?

Jul 17, 2020
Commentary

Japan Is Canceling a U.S. Missile Defense System

In June, Japan canceled its planned deployment of two Aegis Ashore ballistic missile defense systems. This decision is understandable, but that doesn't negate the problems it could pose for Japanese security and Japan's relationship with the United States.

Jul 6, 2020
Commentary

Drone-Era Warfare Shows the Operational Limits of Air Defense Systems

External powers have intervened in the civil wars in Libya and Syria, supplying advanced conventional weapons that have intensified the conflicts. But not all of the weapons have performed as claimed.

Jul 2, 2020
Commentary

Russian S-400 Surface-to-Air Missile System: Is It Worth the Sticker Price?

Many countries do not fully appreciate that effective air defense requires a networked system and not just one missile system component. Getting the true defensive value out of the S-400 surface-to-air system requires additional components that add costs and complexities.

May 6, 2020
Report

Preservation of Tactical Air Combat Potential in Western Europe: Guided Missile Defense Potential

An investigation of surface-to-air guided missiles as a means of augmenting Allied tactical air bases in Western Europe from 1955 to 1958.

Apr 30, 2020
Commentary

Maximizing Bargaining Leverage with Beijing: Developing Missiles as Bargaining Chips

Arms negotiations may offer the only way to reduce the grave threat posed to the United States and allied security by China's missiles. U.S. owned and operated missiles could provide the best bargaining chips.

Apr 3, 2020
Commentary

Japan's North Korea Challenge in 2020

North Korea began 2020 by announcing a shift toward a more hard-line foreign policy approach. While this is bad news for all countries in the region, it is particularly unwelcome for Japan.

Jan 27, 2020
Report

Acquisition and Use of MANPADS Against Commercial Aviation: Risks, Proliferation, Mitigation, and Cost of an Attack

This report provides a summary of the risks, proliferation, costs of man-portable air defense system attacks against commercial aviation targets. It also presents mitigation options against such an attack.

Dec 30, 2019
Commentary

Downplaying North Korea's Missile Tests Carries Risks

North Korea test-fired short-range ballistic missiles for the first time in 18 months. President Trump is downplaying the tests, refusing to call them a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. But if North Korea starts testing longer-range missiles, it could become harder for Washington to return to talks, risking the end of diplomacy with Pyongyang altogether.

Jun 5, 2019
Tool

DPRK Sanctions: Countering DPRK Proliferation Activities

This tool provides an understanding of sanctions regimes currently in force against the Democratic People's Republic of Korea.

Apr 29, 2019
Journal Article

Of Bombs and Bureaucrats: Internal Drivers of Nuclear Force Building in China and the United States

This article examines the domestic influences on US and Chinese nuclear forces. While strategic factors largely drive each side's, underappreciated domestic and organizational factors also influence outcomes.

Feb 8, 2019
Report

U.S.-Japan Alliance Conference: Meeting the Challenge of Amphibious Operations

In March 2018, the RAND Corporation convened a conference to examine the establishment of an Amphibious Rapid Deployment Brigade within the Japan Ground Self-Defense Force.

Sep 27, 2018
Commentary

Japan's Aegis Ashore Defense System

For nearly 20 years, Japan has used the North Korea threat as a legitimate rationale to build its missile defense system and cooperate closely with the U.S. in its development. This argument remains as true today as it was before the flurry of regional diplomacy began earlier this year.

Aug 20, 2018
Blog

Preparing for U.S.-North Korea Talks

What are the chances that a meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and President Trump will lead to meaningful progress? And what should U.S. leaders be thinking about as they prepare? RAND's Bruce Bennett discusses.

Apr 5, 2018
Commentary

Hypersonic Missiles: A New Proliferation Challenge

Within 10 years, hypersonic missiles are likely to be deployed and offered on the international market. But there is time for action by states that do not want hypersonic missiles to flourish in their neighborhoods. It is time to move toward heading off this threat while it is still possible to do so.

Mar 29, 2018
Commentary

Red Glare: The Origin and Implications of Russia's 'New' Nuclear Weapons

Why would Russia, which has over 1,500 deployed strategic nuclear warheads that can be delivered from existing ballistic and cruise missiles, invest in new, exotic systems? The answer is deeply rooted in modern Russian and Soviet history.

Mar 26, 2018
Commentary

Location, Location, Location: Evaluating Risks to Submarines from Low-Yield Warhead and Submarine Missile Launch Detection

Experts can argue that a low-yield SLBM might not be worth deploying as it would put U.S. submarines at unacceptable risk. But the costs to adversaries to develop the capability to target U.S. submarines with nuclear weapons are substantial. In contrast, the costs to the United States are low, requiring only modification to an existing warhead.

Mar 12, 2018
Periodical

RAND Review: March-April 2018

This issue features a Q&A with Michael Rich, Soledad O'Brien, and Francis Fukuyama on the perils of truth decay, and a story on the trend toward unretirement among U.S. workers. The Voices column features Gulrez Shah Azhar on environmental refugees.

Mar 5, 2018
Commentary

Discrimination Details Matter: Clarifying an Argument About Low-Yield Nuclear Warheads

Nuclear forces and nuclear strategy are complex and the facts surrounding them are often shrouded in classification. But if the United States were to deploy a low-yield submarine-launched ballistic missile warhead in the future, an adversary would face the same problems as it does today in knowing what the missile contains

Feb 16, 2018

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