As the North Korean nuclear weapon threat has grown, many in the Republic of Korea (ROK) do not feel assured by the U.S. nuclear umbrella. They favor ROK development of nuclear weapons, a potential disaster for the ROK and the United States. The authors propose options for strengthening that assurance, including enhancing strategic clarity, coercing the North to freeze its nuclear weapons, and committing U.S. nuclear weapons to support the ROK.
Download
Download eBook for Free
Full Document
| Format | File Size | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| PDF file | 0.9 MB | Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. |
한국에 대한 핵보장 강화 방안
Korean language version
| Format | File Size | Notes |
|---|---|---|
| PDF file | 0.9 MB | Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience. |
Purchase
Purchase Print Copy
| Format | List Price | Price | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Add to Cart | Paperback156 pages | $26.00 | $20.80 20% Web Discount |
Research Questions
- What are the major nuclear weapon threats to ROK security?
- What policy and strategy options might strengthen ROK nuclear assurance?
- What nuclear employment planning and execution options might strengthen ROK nuclear assurance?
- What nuclear weapon force options might strengthen ROK nuclear assurance? How can they be designed to minimize political difficulties with the ROK and with ROK neighbors?
North Korea has been vastly increasing its nuclear weapon threat and plans to accelerate this process in the future. North Korea has also adopted an extremely hostile campaign of threatening the Republic of Korea (ROK) and the United States with nuclear attacks. China is also vastly increasing its nuclear weapon capabilities and is no longer trusted by most people in the ROK.
To counter these threats, the United States provides extended deterrence for the ROK and promises a nuclear umbrella to cover the ROK so that the ROK does not need its own nuclear weapons. The United States wants a nuclear weapon–free Korean Peninsula to avoid imperiling the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty, the foundation of U.S. nuclear nonproliferation policy. The United States has constructed its nuclear umbrella on a high degree of strategic ambiguity in the belief that this ambiguity will achieve the most-effective deterrence of North Korean aggression.
But this ambiguity, the growing North Korean threat, and U.S. withdrawal from other allied countries (e.g., Afghanistan) have caused many in the ROK to question the existing U.S. commitment and seek more-concrete assurance. Sensitive to this concern, President Joe Biden supported ROK President Suk Yeol Yoon with the Washington Declaration in April 2023. This report proposes options that the United States and the ROK could exercise to strengthen ROK nuclear assurance consistent with the Washington Declaration, including enhancing strategic clarity, coercing North Korea to freeze its nuclear weapons, and committing U.S. nuclear weapons to support the ROK.
Key Findings
- North Korea has a nuclear weapon force that may already pose an existential threat to the ROK and is on the verge of posing a serious threat to the United States. The North hopes to use its nuclear weapon threats to help break the ROK-U.S. alliance.
- China poses very serious nuclear weapon threats to the ROK and the United States.
- ROK assurance in the U.S. nuclear umbrella has faltered because of these growing threats and the ambiguity in the U.S. commitment to ROK security, leading to calls for ROK development of nuclear weapons.
- Because of these developments, the U.S. nuclear umbrella requires greater strategic clarity for both deterrence and ROK assurance.
- The Washington Declaration promises greater strategic clarity. However, it needs greater implementation details to increase ROK nuclear assurance.
- The United States could pursue strategic clarity akin to the efforts taken with the North Atlantic Treaty Organization in the 1960s.
- A ROK-U.S. coercive campaign to freeze North Korean nuclear weapon development could strengthen ROK nuclear assurance.
- The United States could commit U.S. nuclear weapons to establish some level of parity against the North Korean nuclear weapon threat to the ROK. Doing so might avoid a future decision by the ROK government to produce its own nuclear weapon force.
- ROK nuclear weapon production could lead to international sanctions on the ROK that would seriously damage the ROK economy, cause political controversy and instability, and increase global nuclear weapon proliferation.
Table of Contents
Chapter One
Introduction
Chapter Two
Why the ROK Needs Greater Nuclear Assurance
Chapter Three
Policy and Strategy Options
Chapter Four
Employment Planning and Execution Assurance Options
Chapter Five
Nuclear Weapon Force Assurance Options
Chapter Six
ROK Nuclear Assurance in Changing Conditions
Appendix
Nuclear Damage Assessment
Research conducted by
This research was sponsored by the Asan Institute for Policy Studies and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Division (NSRD).
This report is part of the RAND Corporation Research report series. RAND reports present research findings and objective analysis that address the challenges facing the public and private sectors. All RAND reports undergo rigorous peer review to ensure high standards for research quality and objectivity.
This document and trademark(s) contained herein are protected by law. This representation of RAND intellectual property is provided for noncommercial use only. Unauthorized posting of this publication online is prohibited; linking directly to this product page is encouraged. Permission is required from RAND to reproduce, or reuse in another form, any of its research documents for commercial purposes. For information on reprint and reuse permissions, please visit www.rand.org/pubs/permissions.
The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.