Bruce W. Bennett

North Korea's Satellite Launch: Part of a Bigger Problem for Kim Jong-un?

On November 21, North Korea made its third attempt of 2023 to launch a reconnaissance satellite despite this launch violating multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions and despite the urging of many other countries. It may well have been a desperate move by North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un.

Deterrence of North Korean Limited Nuclear Attacks

No single action is likely to deter North Korean nuclear weapon use. But a combination of efforts may convince Kim Jong-un that any use of nuclear weapons for coercion would be very dangerous to his future, and could be a powerful approach to deterring North Korea.

What North Korea Is Learning from the Hamas-Israel War

South Korea and the United States should rein in North Korean nuclear weapon production and prepare to respond to escalated North Korean coercion. While Kim Jong-un probably won't resort to a Hamas-style attack, he certainly shares Hamas' goal of cultivating U.S. reluctance to get involved militarily in the region.

Nuclear Weapons in the North Korean World View

As Kim Jong-un's actions become more threatening, the risks of a catastrophic accidental nuclear war become more likely. The United States needs to make North Korean denuclearization a long-term objective but focus in the immediate future on limiting the size and danger of the North Korean nuclear weapon force.

North Korea and China Aren't the Allies You Think They Are

China and North Korea have a history of friction, despite being seen as allies. As Russia, China, and North Korea move toward a closer trilateral partnership, the United States and its allies need to recognize that there are seams in the relationships that can be used to undermine it.

North Korea, Russia and China: The Developing Trilateral Imperialist Partnership

There are no easy ways for the United States and its allies to counter the developing Russia-China–North Korea partnership. But there are options to consider and steps to take. There are also fissures in their relationships to exploit.

A Trilateral Summit to Deal with Trilateral Threats

The leaders of Japan, South Korea, and the United States held a trilateral summit in August, focused on countering military threats in East Asia. Not surprisingly, China and North Korea were upset by the summit, designed as it was to respond to their military build-ups.

How Kim Jong-un's Fears Shape North Korea's Nuclear Weapons Agenda

North Korea has ramped up the frequency and intensity of its provocations, continuing its nuclear weapon–buildup while threatening attacks against South Korea and the United States. Why is Kim Jong-un making such excessive investments in North Korea's nuclear and weapons programs and showing off its capabilities?

North Korea Is Forcing U.S. Military Counters

If the U.S. military shoots down a North Korean ICBM fired in the direction of the United States and its territories, North Korea will regard it as an act of war. Even in the realm of North Korean rhetoric, this is extreme.

Why Is North Korea Showing Off Its ICBMs?

On February 8, North Korea held a military parade in Pyongyang to call attention to the strengths of the North's military weapons, including what appeared to be 11 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Can the United States and its allies afford to wait until North Korea has dozens of ICBMs and hundreds of nuclear weapons? Because that is the direction in which Kim says he is moving.

Standing Up to Kim Jong-un's Divide-and-Conquer Strategy

Kim Jong-un is frightened by even the current modest flow of information into the North. He may be prepared to reduce his provocations if those threats lead to the further spread of outside information in the North. At the very least, the ROK and the United States could try such efforts.

Japanese 'Counterstrike' May Be Good for ROK Security

Fully coordinated, the South Korean Kill Chain and Japanese counterstrike capability could be more effective in stopping North Korea from causing damage. And they could be more likely to deter Kim Jong-un, as Pyongyang recognizes that its efforts to militarily dominate the ROK are unlikely to succeed.

Could K-Pop Help Deter Kim Jong-un's Provocations?

The United States and Republic of Korea could be more specific and creative in seeking to deter Kim Jong-un. The global popularity of K-Pop could be part of the strategy.

Three Principles for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security

In his inaugural address in 1998, former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung defined three principles for Korean Peninsula peace and security. How might these principles be adjusted to manage today's changing North Korean threats and the Korean security environment?

Preserving the ROK-U.S. Alliance by Sustaining Military Exercises

The Republic of Korea (ROK)/U.S. military forces based in the ROK are in a constant state of training, which is required to maintain military effectiveness. North Korea seeks to stop this ROK/U.S. military training, but taking the North Korean complaints seriously could be a mistake.

Reducing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Could Make North Korea Happy

The threats emanating from North Korea pose a useful case study for the potential implications of reducing the role of U.S. nuclear weapons. Additional U.S. nuclear deterrence declaratory strategy, backed up by appropriate nuclear weapon capabilities and planning, may be needed.

North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China

Despite the current border closures between their two countries, China and North Korea remain resolutely pledged to a “blood-alliance.” But this partnership has vastly different implications depending on which side of the border you consider.

Trying to Manage North Korean Instability Risks

The regime in North Korea usually makes extreme efforts to prevent outsiders and even its own people from seeing instabilities there. But Kim Jong-un appears to be taking some risks trying to solidify his grip in the wake of events undermining his control.

COVID-19 Exacerbates North Korea's Bad Choices

Recently, Kim Jong-un admitted that North Korea is facing a dire situation. It was surprising that he would admit circumstances which at face value suggest major failures on his part. Why is Kim admitting that such circumstances are developing in the North now?

North Korea: Seeking Influence on President-Elect Biden

North Korea's past post-election provocation patterns suggest that the United States might have days to weeks before the North's first provocations. The Biden team might consider actions to convince Kim Jong-un that provocations will hurt him.

North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen

President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program, but it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?

In North Korea, The U.S. Could Take the Lead

North Korea is hurting: its economy is stagnant and it is having trouble feeding even its elites because of the UN/U.S. sanctions designed to pressure North Korean toward denuclearization. A combined carrot and stick approach may help overcome some of North Korea's reluctance to negotiate the future of its nuclear weapons program.

Will the Real Kim Yo Jong Stand Up?

It's difficult to get reliable information about North Korea's leadership. This is especially true of Kim Jong Un's younger sister, Kim Yo Jong. Nonetheless, Washington should strive to learn as much as possible about someone who could become the leader of a nuclear-armed North Korea.

Is North Korea Prepared to End the Korean War?

The end of the Korean War and peace on the peninsula are no more likely to occur as the result of a peace agreement than has North Korean denuclearization occurred as the result of multiple denuclearization agreements. Ultimately, North Korean objectives matter, and real peace does not appear to be part of those objectives.

North Korean Provocations, Not Denuclearization

Kim Jong-un's reappearance raises questions about the course of U.S.–North Korea relationships in the coming year. What should we expect? What can we learn from the past?

North Korea: Denying COVID-19

According to Pyongyang, North Korea has not yet suffered any cases of COVID-19. That would be surprising, since it is a neighbor and extensive trading partner of China. There are signs that this claim is yet another North Korean deception.

North Korea: Selling Political Deception

Why did Kim Jong-un substitute releasing the North Korean Workers' Party Plenary report instead of his traditional New Year's address? As with many things in North Korea, we do not know, forcing us to speculate.

Stability in Northeast Asia and the North Korean 'Christmas Present'

North Korea's extreme rhetoric is worrying people in Northeast Asia. Pyongyang is threatening a presumably violent “Christmas gift” to the United States at the same time that Washington's patience with Pyongyang has worn thin.

How Trump Reset U.S.–North Korea Relations

The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the DMZ may lead to follow-on talks. But the success of future negotiations depends on Kim actually taking action to denuclearize.

Where Do U.S.–North Korea Relations Go in the Aftermath of the Hanoi Summit?

If Kim Jong-un is sincere about denuclearization, it is time for him to match his words with actions. If North Korea's nuclearization continues, the U.S. government may eventually face some pressure to take military action to stop it.

Hard to Predict Outcome of Second Trump-Kim Summit

It's difficult to predict the outcome of the second summit between Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump. At the first, Kim offered to fully denuclearize during President Trump's first term. But he continued building nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. If Kim keeps stalling, serious tensions could follow.

Why North Korea Sanctions Relief Is Inappropriate at This Time

In early 2018, Kim Jong Un signaled that he was ready to negotiate abandoning North Korea's nuclear weapons with the United States. But since then, Pyongyang hasn't taken steps to denuclearize. The DPRK's actions speak louder than its words.

How America Can Test North Korea's True Intentions

While North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has suggested he may be prepared to abandon his nuclear ambitions, there has been no proof that he is serious. The United States could take steps to discover Kim's true intentions.

North Korean Actions Speak Louder Than Its Words

Kim Jong Un has regularly promised to denuclearize, but he's been all talk. And this year, North Korea has probably built five to nine more nuclear weapons. There are steps that could make a difference if taken before the North Korean nuclear weapon threat grows any further.

Beyond Strategic Patience with North Korea: What Comes Next?

North Korea says that nuclear weapons are essential to regime survival. The United States should figure out how to persuade the North Korean regime that it is less likely to survive by posing a nuclear threat than by cooperating with the international community.

Lowdown on Pyeongtaek Garrison

Camp Humphreys will become the major U.S. base in Korea. In terms of North Korean threats, the camp is roughly 100 kilometers from the Demilitarized Zone. Some North Korean ballistic missiles could cause damage at Camp Humphreys if it's targeted.

Why THAAD Is Needed in Korea

As the threat from North Korea has been developing over the last 30 years, the U.S. has responsibly deployed missile defenses in Korea to protect its forces and South Koreans. Today, North Korea's medium- and intermediate-range missiles require a defense able to handle higher missile re-entry speeds like the THAAD system.

A Surgical Strike Against North Korea? Not a Viable Option

North Korea's July 4 launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit American soil has renewed talk of military intervention. But an effective limited military strike with minimal collateral damage and no escalation simply won't work.

Is Moon Ready to Reunite Korea? Is Kim Jong Un?

President Moon Jae-in is focused on South Korean domestic issues and internal unification. But he needs to prepare for unification with North Korea. He will face challenges whether unification is brought on by peaceful coexistence or as the result of sudden change.

Five Dead-Ends — and One Risky Opportunity — When Trump and Xi Talk North Korea

Among President Trump's options, proposing a deal that gives the North Korean elite an alternative to its murderous and unstable leader could be the safest and most realistic way to sheath North Korean nuclear weapons and safeguard the American people.

Murder, Missiles, and Messages from North Korea

Pyongyang launched a ballistic missile on February 12 — one day before Kim Jong Nam, half brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, was murdered in Malaysia — and four more on March 6. What would lead North Korea to carry out these provocations?

Death by Nerve Gas: Two Arrests, Many Questions in Attack in Malaysia

Details about the murder of Kim Jong Un's half-brother are still being uncovered. If a firm connection to North Korea can be made, others in the region should react strongly. Otherwise, Kim may conclude that further provocations are worth it.

Trump Should Confront Kim Over ICBM Tests

Whether successful or not, an ICBM test by North Korea would be very much against U.S. interests and President-elect Trump should act to counter it as early as possible. A turn to the basics of deterrence would be the path most likely to succeed.

On Northeast Asia

China has been a major proponent of regional security for Northeast Asia but appears disinterested in Republic of Korea (ROK) security against North Korean missile and nuclear weapon threats.

What to Look for in North Korea's Fifth Nuclear Test

North Korea's fifth and biggest nuclear test could have implications for U.S. policy toward the North, China's role in the region, and the stability of the Kim regime.

Behind North Korea's Bid for a 'Peace Treaty'

By insisting on a peace treaty with America, North Korea is probably seeking war. Its leaders likely hope a treaty would lead to a withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea, setting the stage for an invasion by the North.

THAAD's Effect on South Korea's Neighbors

It is hard to determine how China or Russia will respond to THAAD deployment in South Korea. THAAD deployment could change the dynamic and terms of the debate, leading to greater Chinese pressure on North Korea to curb its nuclear and missile threats.

North Korea Rocket Launch: Why Did Kim Fire a Missile Now?

Kim Jong-un is probably seeking clear successes before his important Seventh Party Congress in May, when he wants to appear to be the all-powerful leader of North Korea.

Does North Korea Really Have an H-Bomb?

Kim Jong Un has claimed that North Korea has an H-bomb. Whether this claim is accurate, or an exaggeration, remains to be seen. But it does highlight how the country's leadership culture requires Kim to periodically demonstrate his power.

Why Kim Jong Un Fears South Korean Propaganda

While the latest confrontation between North and South Korea appears to be ending peacefully, it provides insight into future North Korean provocations. Words as weapons can work when they are aimed at North Korea's internal politics and backed up by a strong South Korean response supported by the U.S.

South Korea's Missile-Defense System Decision: Q&A with Bruce Bennett

What might it mean if the U.S. deploys the terminal high-altitude air defense missile system known as THAAD in South Korea? Chinese pressure on South Korea to not allow THAAD deployment has become a major regional security issue.

North Korean Charm Offensive: Peace for Our Time?

Is North Korea really sincere about wanting to negotiate improved relations with South Korea and the United States? Or is it seeking to undermine the strength and sovereignty of its neighbor, just as Germany did before World War II?

Is the North Korean Regime Out of Control?

Evidence points to North Korean involvement in the Sony hack. But it's impossible to know if top regime leaders sanctioned the attack or if it was carried out by another part of the government without their knowledge and consent. An unauthorized hack would only add to Kim Jong-un's worry over his regime's instability.

Did North Korea Hack Sony?

North Korea has tried pressuring Sony Pictures, the White House, and the UN to halt the release of a film that depicts Kim Jong-un in terms Kim would not want the world and especially his elites to see. After failing to stop the film diplomatically, North Korea may have been motivated to escalate its efforts.

N.K. WMDs Carry Catastrophic Potential

The failure of the United States and South Korea to prevent North Korea from gaining significant quantities of weapons of mass destruction saddles those governments with serious military responsibilities, should North Korea go to war or should its government collapse.

What Does North Korea Want?

Currently, three U.S. citizens are being detained in North Korea. It is likely that North Korea wants someone like a former U.S. president to come to North Korea instead of U.S. Ambassador Bob King, whose visits were cancelled.

Why Japan's Military Shift Is Necessary for South Korea

With its collective self-defense policy, Japan assumes its responsibilities to support the defense of South Korea and regional security in general, an appropriate action given the economic and other independencies of the regional countries.

North Korea's Latest Military Operations

Whatever form of chest thumping comes next from Kim, it is clear that his goal is to put forward the appearance of strength and power, when in reality he faces instability at home and scorn from the international community.

Bruce Bennett Discusses North Korea on Reddit.com

To shed some light on Kim Jong-un's possible motivations—and to discuss what might happen if the North Korean government suddenly collapsed the way East Germany's did—RAND's Bruce Bennett took part in a question and answer session on Reddit.com.

N. Korea Could Fall Faster Than We Think

The United States, South Korea and their allies would be well advised to factor in the possibility that North Korea could collapse in a fit of revolt and economic decay at any time, just as East Germany did, writes Bruce Bennett.

Enhancing Security Cooperation at the Korea-U.S. Summit

The U.S.-South Korean Extended Deterrence Policy Committee was setup to deter North Korean threats. The upcoming summit should ratify the progress of this effort, reassuring both the Korean and U.S. people that these threats are being managed.

North Korea's Third Nuclear Test: A Sign of Weakness, Not Strength

The ROK and the United States should take actions to deter subsequent North Korean provocations while punishing the country for its nuclear weapon test. Such actions could convince it that the ROK/U.S. are serious and able to impose high costs, writes Bruce Bennett.

North Korean 'Satellite' May Fall from Sky, but That Won't Deter Kim Jong-Un

Kim Jong-Un's regime has placed outsized import on its missile launches—despite the risk of alienating the international community—to offset the lack of success across a wide range of topics, writes Bruce Bennett.

North Korea's Just Getting Started

While many observers of North Korea have been surprised by the apparently peaceful ascension of Kim Jong-Un, there are reasons to believe that the situation in the North is not so stable, writes Bruce Bennett.

Syria's Chemical Weapons, and Beyond

Every possible effort toward peaceful resolution and proliferation avoidance, even to the extent of offering safe passage and immunity to reprehensible characters in order to buy the safe transfer and control of such materials, is worth consideration, write James T. Quinlivan and Bruce W. Bennett.

North Korean Defense Chief's Retirement Has Hallmarks of Purge

It is notable that North Korea's Politburo made the Ri announcement, suggesting a rise in power of the party relative to the military. The choice of Ri's successor is also curious, writes Bruce Bennett.

Anatomy of a War Game

War games are especially important as countries prepare to counter adversaries who use asymmetric strategies or weapons, forcing military planners to deal with unfamiliar threats, writes Bruce Bennett.

North Korea: Uncertain and Dangerous Times Ahead

With his father's support over the last year, Kim Jong-Un has tried to rapidly reshape the North Korean leadership structure, giving him many new subordinates who are untried and lacking experience. Some will clearly make mistakes, writes Bruce Bennett.

Alternative to Futile Negotiations with N.K.

Clearly, it's time for a new strategy, one that North Korea has been loathe to discuss: hasten Korean unification under South Korea's leadership, writes Bruce Bennett.

The Sinking of the Cheonan: Engage or Retaliate?

North Korea's apparent sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan marks a new low in the North's provocative behavior. While some would prefer to respond with carrots rather than sticks, it is time to take action that imposes political costs on Kim Jong-il, writes Bruce Bennett.

Managing Catastrophic North Korea Risks

In recent years, U.S. commanders of the ROK/U.S. Combined Forces Command have been unanimous in stating that CFC could defeat a North Korean invasion. Nevertheless, they have also expressed concern about the catastrophic damage that North Korea could do to the ROK before losing, writes Bruce Bennett.

Getting Value from the U.S.-ROK Summit

For months, North Korea has been trying to upstage the summit between South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and U.S. President Barack Obama that is scheduled for June 16. Almost all Americans I know have heard of these North Korean provocations. But few have heard anything about the U.S.-ROK summit, writes Bruce Bennett.

No Surprise in Failure to Deter N. Korea

North Korea's latest misbehavior highlights an uncomfortable truth: the failure of the United States and the international community to deter North Korean actions. In this case, it is pretty easy to see why North Korea has not been deterred, writes Bruce Bennett.

N.K. Provocation Suggests Regime in Trouble

North Korea spent weeks preparing to launch a ballistic missile that could reach the United States. It argued that the launch was intended to put a satellite into orbit. But a space launch vehicle is a ballistic missile used for a modestly different purpose, writes Bruce W. Bennett.

A New National Strategy for Korea: North Korea Threats Require Deterrence, Reconciliation

The new Korean government should fully recognize the North Korean military threats and respond by fielding military counters against dangerous North Korean military capabilities, writes Bruce Bennett.

Changes From Command Transfer

Published commentary by RAND staff: Changes From Command Transfer, in Korea Times.

N Korea Policy Options

Published commentary by RAND staff: N Korea Policy Options, in United Press International.

What's to Stop Kim Now?

Published commentary by RAND staff: What's to Stop Kim Now?, in International Herald Tribune.

On the Edge

Published commentary by RAND staff: On the Edge, in the Washington Times.

A Different Axis: Don't Try Regime Change in North Korea

Is it time for Operation Korean Freedom? The regime change in Iraq has prompted some to urge regime change in the other two members of the President George W. Bush's "axis of evil," North Korea and Iran.

Now, Back to the Real Threat? The One with Nukes

While the mop-up of the war in Iraq dominates the news today, North Korea remains an unresolved crisis that could mean nuclear war for the United States.

N. Korea's Threat to S. Korea

Published commentary by RAND staff.

Four Horrible Choices in North Korea

Every option the United States faces in resolving our nuclear dispute with North Korea is a horrible choice -- but some are more horrible than others, writes Bruce Bennett in an commentary.

North Korea -- Friend or Foe?

While the level of mistrust between the U.S. and North Korea is too high for very close cooperation now, North Korea has apparently offered to provide terrorist-related information to Washington. The U.S. should pursue such discussions.

Report

Options for Strengthening ROK Nuclear Assurance

Many in the Republic of Korea (ROK) are not feeling assured by the U.S. nuclear umbrella. The authors propose options for strengthening that assurance, including enhancing strategic clarity and committing U.S. nuclear weapons to support the ROK.

Report

Characterizing the Risks of North Korean Chemical and Biological Weapons, Electromagnetic Pulse, and Cyber Threats

The authors provide a comprehensive overview, based on open sources, of North Korean capabilities in terms of its weapons of mass destruction and cyber operations, assess the threats these pose, and suggest possible responses.

Journal Article

Nuclear-Use Cases for Contemplating Crisis and Conflict on the Korean Peninsula

The paper identifies possible cases/scenarios that would lead to first use of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.

Report

Engaging with North Korea: Lessons from Game Theory

In this report, the authors apply a game theoretic lens to the current confrontation between the United States and North Korea to provide insights and recommendations.

Commentary

Countering the Risks of North Korean Nuclear Weapons

The authors argue that the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK) should pursue firm deterrence of North Korean nuclear weapon use—which might soon pose a serious threat to the United States and the ROK—rather than relying primarily on negotiations.

Journal Article

South Korea: Capable Now, Questions for the Future

South Korea is a capable US military ally. It faces a substantial military threat from North Korea, especially North Korea's WMD. South Korea's demographics are shrinking its military, challenging South Korea's ability to defend itself in the future.

Tool

Four Problems on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea's Expanding Nuclear Capabilities Drive a Complex Set of Problems

This toolkit provides visualizations illuminating four Korea-related problems: North Korea's nuclear arsenal, North Korean artillery systems, evacuating South Korean population centers, and securing North Korean nuclear weapons and facilities.

Report

Alternative Paths to Korean Unification

In this report, the author describes challenges to any potential unification of Korea and outlines alternative paths to unification. He also recommends actions that South Korea and the United States could take to achieve a more favorable outcome.

Journal Article

After the Summit: Prospects for the Korean Peninsula

History suggests that the most probable consequence of the Singapore Summit will be difficult and lengthy negotiation followed by slow and inadequate compliance, quite possibly on both sides.

Report

Strengthening U.S.-ROK Relations in the New Administrations of the United States and South Korea: Findings from an October 2016 RAND Corporation Conference

This summary outlines presentations and discussions from an October 2016 conference on relations between the United States and the Republic of Korea, with a focus on strengthening regional security and economic relations.

Report

Preparing North Korean Elites for Unification

For years, the Republic of Korea (also known as South Korea) has pursued a policy of peaceful reunification with North Korea. This report examines what could be done to convince North Korean elites that unification would be good for them.

Testimony

Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse

Briefing presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on January 29, 2014.

Testimony

The Challenge of North Korean Biological Weapons

Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence, Emerging Threats and Capabilities on October 11, 2013.

Report

Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse

A North Korean government collapse would have serious consequences, including a potential humanitarian disaster and civil war. The Republic of Korea and its U.S. ally will almost certainly have to intervene, but are ill-prepared to do so.

Journal Article

The Sixty Years of the Korea-U.S. Security Alliance: Past, Present, and Future

Because North Korea is a failing state, the ROK and the United States must seek to deter, and, if necessary, defeat a range of North Korean challenges, from provocations to major war.

Journal Article

Deterring North Korea from Using WMD in Future Conflicts and Crises

The United States and its allies need an effective means to deter North Korea's use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

Journal Article

The Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and Requirements

In North Korea, the upcoming leadership transition in the Kim Jong-il regime will be a precarious time for the Kim family's hold on power.

Report

Early Observations on Possible Defenses by the Emerging Threat Agent Project

Gaps in defenses against chemical and biological weapon agents can pose a serious risk to U.S. military operations. This paper summarizes early expert observations about the threat and possible responses.

Report

Uncertainties in the North Korean Nuclear Threat

Examines the uncertainties in the North Korean nuclear weapon threat, including the number and nature of North Korean nuclear weapons, their potential delivery means, how they could be used, and what effects they might cause.

Report

A Brief Analysis of the Republic of Korea’s Defense Reform Plan

An analysis of the Republic of Korea's Defense Reform Plan.

Report

Flexible Combat Modeling

Flexible Combat Modeling

Report

New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

Addresses the new challenges for defense policy in a world transformed by the end of the Cold War and then the war on terrorism, and sketches new analytic techniques for framing particular defense issues.

Report

Metrics for the Quadrennial Defense Review’s Operational Goals

Takes a first cut at identifying metrics for evaluating, advancing, and monitoring progress toward attaining the six operational goals highlighted in the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review.

Report

The Implications of the September 11 Terrorist Attacks for California: A Collection of Issue Papers

This collection of issue papers illustrates that there is work to be done to improve our understanding of terrorism's longer-term effects.

Report

What Are Asymmetric Strategies?

What Are Asymmetric Strategies?

Report

Integrating Counterproliferation into Defense Planning

This document describes the implications of weapons of mass destruction proliferation on U.S. defense planning. The authors believe that, at the margin, improvements in passive defenses should be given priority over increases in firepower.

Report

Integrating Counterproliferation into Defense Planning

The United States has long sought to halt the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and has met with substantial success. However, the shadow of WMD is present in any crisis.

Report

The Demand for Military Health Care: Supporting Research for a Comprehensive Study of the Military Health Care System

In weighing the pros and cons of various alternatives, this report suggests that military beneficiaries might prefer civilian health plans, as long as there is no erosion of benefits in making such a shift.

Report

JICM 1.0 Summary

This report documents the Joint Contingency Model (JICM), a global war gaming and analysis system that focuses on conflict from major regional contingencies through strategic warfare.

Report

New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough

This book is a collection of essays by senior defense analysts at RAND, all of whom have been deeply involved in post-Cold War defense planning studies for the Department of Defense.

Report

Theater Analysis and Modeling in an Era of Uncertainty: The Present and Future of Warfare

This report presents the results of war gaming and analysis on the future of warfare.

Report

The New Map Graphics in RSAS 5.0

The RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) is a global warfare analysis system developed over the last decade for the Director of Net Assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

Report

RSAS 4.6 Summary

This Note summarizes the development status of RSAS 4.6, as released, describing each of its components and how they have been changed since RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) 4.0.

Report

Main Theater Warfare Modeling in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (3.0)

This Note provides an overview of the main theater warfare model developed as part of the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS, Release 3.0), in a game-structured simulation of global conflict.

Report

Reflecting Soviet Thinking in the Structure of Combat Models and Data

This paper provides an overview of the CAMPAIGN model being developed by the RAND Strategy Assessment Center (RSAC) for use in strategic and operational-level gaming and simulation.

Report

The Role of Automated War Gaming in Strategic Analysis

Experience with the prototype system has highlighted some very challenging issues in learning how to use humans and machines effectively in war gaming and analysis. This paper discusses some of those issues.

Report

Automated War Gaming as a Technique for Exploring Strategic Command and Control Issues

Describes a preliminary concept for including strategic command and control effects within the automated war gaming of RAND's Strategy Assessment Center.

Report

The Geographic Distribution of Physicians: Is the Conventional Wisdom Correct?

In this report, the authors show that a number of predictions of standard location theory are consistent with the data on physician location.

Report

How Have Location Patterns of Physicians Affected the Availability of Medical Services?

An analysis of the location of 17 categories of physicians in the years 1970 to 1979. As the supply of physicians grew during these years, smaller communities increasingly acquired various types of medical and surgical specialty services.

Journal Article

Where Have All the Doctors Gone?

As the supply of physicians grew during the 1970s, medical and surgical specialists diffused into smaller communities.

Report

Assessing the Capabilities of Strategic Nuclear Forces: The Limits of Current Methods

The purpose of this Note is to assess the nature and validity of the various procedures used in assessing strategic forces capabilities.

Report

The Changing Geographic Distribution of Board-Certified Physicians: Facts, Theory, and Implications

This is a study of the recent distribution of board-certified specialists among cities and towns of different sizes.

Report

How to Assess the Survivability of U.S. ICBMs: Appendixes

Technical appendixes providing substantive background supporting R-2577's development of a methodology for assessing ICBM survivability.

Report

How to Assess the Survivability of U.S. ICBMs

Develops complete survivability distributions for U.S. ICBMs under various conditions of Soviet attack and under three U.S. basing options: silos, trenches, and shelters.

Report

Fatality Uncertainties in Limited Nuclear War

Presents counterarguments to the article "Limited Nuclear War," by S. D. Drell and F. von Hippel, [Scientific American], November 1976.