Bruce W. Bennett

Overview

Commentary

• 
  North Korea

  North Korea Is Forcing U.S. Military Counters

  If the U.S. military shoots down a North Korean ICBM fired in the direction of the United States and its territories, North Korea will regard it as an act of war. Even in the realm of North Korean rhetoric, this is extreme.

  Mar 14, 2023

  1945

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  North Korea

  Why Is North Korea Showing Off Its ICBMs?

  On February 8, North Korea held a military parade in Pyongyang to call attention to the strengths of the North's military weapons, including what appeared to be 11 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Can the United States and its allies afford to wait until North Korea has dozens of ICBMs and hundreds of nuclear weapons? Because that is the direction in which Kim says he is moving.

  Feb 15, 2023

  1945

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  North Korea

  Standing Up to Kim Jong-un's Divide-and-Conquer Strategy

  Kim Jong-un is frightened by even the current modest flow of information into the North. He may be prepared to reduce his provocations if those threats lead to the further spread of outside information in the North. At the very least, the ROK and the United States could try such efforts.

  Jan 6, 2023

  1945

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  Nuclear Deterrence

  Japanese 'Counterstrike' May Be Good for ROK Security

  Fully coordinated, the South Korean Kill Chain and Japanese counterstrike capability could be more effective in stopping North Korea from causing damage. And they could be more likely to deter Kim Jong-un, as Pyongyang recognizes that its efforts to militarily dominate the ROK are unlikely to succeed.

  Dec 28, 2022

  NK News

• 
  Nuclear Deterrence

  Could K-Pop Help Deter Kim Jong-un's Provocations?

  The United States and Republic of Korea could be more specific and creative in seeking to deter Kim Jong-un. The global popularity of K-Pop could be part of the strategy.

  Oct 11, 2022

  1945

• 
  South Korea

  Three Principles for Korean Peninsula Peace and Security

  In his inaugural address in 1998, former South Korean President Kim Dae-jung defined three principles for Korean Peninsula peace and security. How might these principles be adjusted to manage today's changing North Korean threats and the Korean security environment?

  May 20, 2022

  The Korea Times

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  Joint Operations

  Preserving the ROK-U.S. Alliance by Sustaining Military Exercises

  The Republic of Korea (ROK)/U.S. military forces based in the ROK are in a constant state of training, which is required to maintain military effectiveness. North Korea seeks to stop this ROK/U.S. military training, but taking the North Korean complaints seriously could be a mistake.

  Nov 30, 2021

  Korea on Point

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  Nuclear Deterrence

  Reducing the Role of U.S. Nuclear Weapons Could Make North Korea Happy

  The threats emanating from North Korea pose a useful case study for the potential implications of reducing the role of U.S. nuclear weapons. Additional U.S. nuclear deterrence declaratory strategy, backed up by appropriate nuclear weapon capabilities and planning, may be needed.

  Oct 20, 2021

  The National Interest

• 
  Nuclear Deterrence

  North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China

  Despite the current border closures between their two countries, China and North Korea remain resolutely pledged to a “blood-alliance.” But this partnership has vastly different implications depending on which side of the border you consider.

  Jul 13, 2021

  The National Interest

• 
  North Korea

  Trying to Manage North Korean Instability Risks

  The regime in North Korea usually makes extreme efforts to prevent outsiders and even its own people from seeing instabilities there. But Kim Jong-un appears to be taking some risks trying to solidify his grip in the wake of events undermining his control.

  Jun 30, 2021

  The National Interest

• 
  North Korea

  COVID-19 Exacerbates North Korea's Bad Choices

  Recently, Kim Jong-un admitted that North Korea is facing a dire situation. It was surprising that he would admit circumstances which at face value suggest major failures on his part. Why is Kim admitting that such circumstances are developing in the North now?

  Apr 20, 2021

  The National Interest

• 
  North Korea

  North Korea: Seeking Influence on President-Elect Biden

  North Korea's past post-election provocation patterns suggest that the United States might have days to weeks before the North's first provocations. The Biden team might consider actions to convince Kim Jong-un that provocations will hurt him.

  Nov 17, 2020

  The National Interest

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  Nuclear Disarmament

  North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen

  President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program, but it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?

  Sep 28, 2020

  The National Interest

• 
  North Korea

  In North Korea, The U.S. Could Take the Lead

  North Korea is hurting: its economy is stagnant and it is having trouble feeding even its elites because of the UN/U.S. sanctions designed to pressure North Korean toward denuclearization. A combined carrot and stick approach may help overcome some of North Korea's reluctance to negotiate the future of its nuclear weapons program.

  Aug 17, 2020

  The National Interest

• 
  North Korea

  Will the Real Kim Yo Jong Stand Up?

  It's difficult to get reliable information about North Korea's leadership. This is especially true of Kim Jong Un's younger sister, Kim Yo Jong. Nonetheless, Washington should strive to learn as much as possible about someone who could become the leader of a nuclear-armed North Korea.

  Jul 6, 2020

  The Hill

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  North Korea

  Is North Korea Prepared to End the Korean War?

  The end of the Korean War and peace on the peninsula are no more likely to occur as the result of a peace agreement than has North Korean denuclearization occurred as the result of multiple denuclearization agreements. Ultimately, North Korean objectives matter, and real peace does not appear to be part of those objectives.

  Jun 29, 2020

  The National Interest

• 
  North Korea

  North Korean Provocations, Not Denuclearization

  Kim Jong-un's reappearance raises questions about the course of U.S.–North Korea relationships in the coming year. What should we expect? What can we learn from the past?

  May 8, 2020

  The National Interest

• 
  North Korea

  North Korea: Denying COVID-19

  According to Pyongyang, North Korea has not yet suffered any cases of COVID-19. That would be surprising, since it is a neighbor and extensive trading partner of China. There are signs that this claim is yet another North Korean deception.

  Apr 2, 2020

  The National Interest

• 
  North Korea

  North Korea: Selling Political Deception

  Why did Kim Jong-un substitute releasing the North Korean Workers' Party Plenary report instead of his traditional New Year's address? As with many things in North Korea, we do not know, forcing us to speculate.

  Jan 3, 2020

  The National Interest

• 
  North Korea

  Stability in Northeast Asia and the North Korean 'Christmas Present'

  North Korea's extreme rhetoric is worrying people in Northeast Asia. Pyongyang is threatening a presumably violent “Christmas gift” to the United States at the same time that Washington's patience with Pyongyang has worn thin.

  Dec 24, 2019

  CGTN

• 
  North Korea

  How Trump Reset U.S.–North Korea Relations

  The meeting between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un at the DMZ may lead to follow-on talks. But the success of future negotiations depends on Kim actually taking action to denuclearize.

  Jul 2, 2019

  The Hill

• 
  Arms Proliferation and Control

  Where Do U.S.–North Korea Relations Go in the Aftermath of the Hanoi Summit?

  If Kim Jong-un is sincere about denuclearization, it is time for him to match his words with actions. If North Korea's nuclearization continues, the U.S. government may eventually face some pressure to take military action to stop it.

  Mar 13, 2019

  The National Interest

• 
  Nuclear Disarmament

  Hard to Predict Outcome of Second Trump-Kim Summit

  It's difficult to predict the outcome of the second summit between Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump. At the first, Kim offered to fully denuclearize during President Trump's first term. But he continued building nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. If Kim keeps stalling, serious tensions could follow.

  Feb 6, 2019

  The National Interest

• 
  North Korea

  Why North Korea Sanctions Relief Is Inappropriate at This Time

  In early 2018, Kim Jong Un signaled that he was ready to negotiate abandoning North Korea's nuclear weapons with the United States. But since then, Pyongyang hasn't taken steps to denuclearize. The DPRK's actions speak louder than its words.

  Nov 26, 2018

  NK News

• 
  North Korea

  How America Can Test North Korea's True Intentions

  While North Korean leader Kim Jong Un has suggested he may be prepared to abandon his nuclear ambitions, there has been no proof that he is serious. The United States could take steps to discover Kim's true intentions.

  Nov 26, 2018

  The National Interest

• 
  Nuclear Disarmament

  North Korean Actions Speak Louder Than Its Words

  Kim Jong Un has regularly promised to denuclearize, but he's been all talk. And this year, North Korea has probably built five to nine more nuclear weapons. There are steps that could make a difference if taken before the North Korean nuclear weapon threat grows any further.

  Oct 11, 2018

  Newsweek

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  Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

  Beyond Strategic Patience with North Korea: What Comes Next?

  North Korea says that nuclear weapons are essential to regime survival. The United States should figure out how to persuade the North Korean regime that it is less likely to survive by posing a nuclear threat than by cooperating with the international community.

  Sep 8, 2017

  The Ripon Forum

• 
  Security Cooperation

  Lowdown on Pyeongtaek Garrison

  Camp Humphreys will become the major U.S. base in Korea. In terms of North Korean threats, the camp is roughly 100 kilometers from the Demilitarized Zone. Some North Korean ballistic missiles could cause damage at Camp Humphreys if it's targeted.

  Aug 8, 2017

  The Korea Times

• 
  Missile Defense

  Why THAAD Is Needed in Korea

  As the threat from North Korea has been developing over the last 30 years, the U.S. has responsibly deployed missile defenses in Korea to protect its forces and South Koreans. Today, North Korea's medium- and intermediate-range missiles require a defense able to handle higher missile re-entry speeds like the THAAD system.

  Aug 7, 2017

  The Korea Times

• 
  Ballistic Missiles

  A Surgical Strike Against North Korea? Not a Viable Option

  North Korea's July 4 launch of an intercontinental ballistic missile that could hit American soil has renewed talk of military intervention. But an effective limited military strike with minimal collateral damage and no escalation simply won't work.

  Jul 14, 2017

  Fox News Channel

• 

  Is Moon Ready to Reunite Korea? Is Kim Jong Un?

  President Moon Jae-in is focused on South Korean domestic issues and internal unification. But he needs to prepare for unification with North Korea. He will face challenges whether unification is brought on by peaceful coexistence or as the result of sudden change.

  Jun 2, 2017

  Newsweek

• 
  Security Cooperation

  Five Dead-Ends — and One Risky Opportunity — When Trump and Xi Talk North Korea

  Among President Trump's options, proposing a deal that gives the North Korean elite an alternative to its murderous and unstable leader could be the safest and most realistic way to sheath North Korean nuclear weapons and safeguard the American people.

  Apr 10, 2017

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  North Korea

  Murder, Missiles, and Messages from North Korea

  Pyongyang launched a ballistic missile on February 12 — one day before Kim Jong Nam, half brother of North Korean leader Kim Jong Un, was murdered in Malaysia — and four more on March 6. What would lead North Korea to carry out these provocations?

  Mar 24, 2017

  RealClearWorld

• 
  Chemical Terrorism

  Death by Nerve Gas: Two Arrests, Many Questions in Attack in Malaysia

  Details about the murder of Kim Jong Un's half-brother are still being uncovered. If a firm connection to North Korea can be made, others in the region should react strongly. Otherwise, Kim may conclude that further provocations are worth it.

  Mar 7, 2017

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  Nuclear Deterrence

  Trump Should Confront Kim Over ICBM Tests

  Whether successful or not, an ICBM test by North Korea would be very much against U.S. interests and President-elect Trump should act to counter it as early as possible. A turn to the basics of deterrence would be the path most likely to succeed.

  Jan 6, 2017

  USA Today

• 
  Security Cooperation

  On Northeast Asia

  China has been a major proponent of regional security for Northeast Asia but appears disinterested in Republic of Korea (ROK) security against North Korean missile and nuclear weapon threats.

  Sep 23, 2016

  The Korea Times

• 
  North Korea

  What to Look for in North Korea's Fifth Nuclear Test

  North Korea's fifth and biggest nuclear test could have implications for U.S. policy toward the North, China's role in the region, and the stability of the Kim regime.

  Sep 9, 2016

  BBC

• 
  North Korea

  Behind North Korea's Bid for a 'Peace Treaty'

  By insisting on a peace treaty with America, North Korea is probably seeking war. Its leaders likely hope a treaty would lead to a withdrawal of U.S. forces from South Korea, setting the stage for an invasion by the North.

  May 18, 2016

  The National Interest

• 
  Missile Defense

  THAAD's Effect on South Korea's Neighbors

  It is hard to determine how China or Russia will respond to THAAD deployment in South Korea. THAAD deployment could change the dynamic and terms of the debate, leading to greater Chinese pressure on North Korea to curb its nuclear and missile threats.

  Apr 5, 2016

  The Cipher Brief

• 
  North Korea

  North Korea Rocket Launch: Why Did Kim Fire a Missile Now?

  Kim Jong-un is probably seeking clear successes before his important Seventh Party Congress in May, when he wants to appear to be the all-powerful leader of North Korea.

  Feb 8, 2016

  BBC

• 
  North Korea

  Does North Korea Really Have an H-Bomb?

  Kim Jong Un has claimed that North Korea has an H-bomb. Whether this claim is accurate, or an exaggeration, remains to be seen. But it does highlight how the country's leadership culture requires Kim to periodically demonstrate his power.

  Dec 16, 2015

  CNN

• 
  North Korea

  Why Kim Jong Un Fears South Korean Propaganda

  While the latest confrontation between North and South Korea appears to be ending peacefully, it provides insight into future North Korean provocations. Words as weapons can work when they are aimed at North Korea's internal politics and backed up by a strong South Korean response supported by the U.S.

  Aug 28, 2015

  U.S. News & World Report

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  Missile Defense

  South Korea's Missile-Defense System Decision: Q&A with Bruce Bennett

  What might it mean if the U.S. deploys the terminal high-altitude air defense missile system known as THAAD in South Korea? Chinese pressure on South Korea to not allow THAAD deployment has become a major regional security issue.

  Apr 3, 2015

• 
  North Korea

  North Korean Charm Offensive: Peace for Our Time?

  Is North Korea really sincere about wanting to negotiate improved relations with South Korea and the United States? Or is it seeking to undermine the strength and sovereignty of its neighbor, just as Germany did before World War II?

  Feb 3, 2015

  The Korea Herald

• 
  North Korea

  Is the North Korean Regime Out of Control?

  Evidence points to North Korean involvement in the Sony hack. But it's impossible to know if top regime leaders sanctioned the attack or if it was carried out by another part of the government without their knowledge and consent. An unauthorized hack would only add to Kim Jong-un's worry over his regime's instability.

  Dec 23, 2014

  Newsweek

• 
  Cybercrime

  Did North Korea Hack Sony?

  North Korea has tried pressuring Sony Pictures, the White House, and the UN to halt the release of a film that depicts Kim Jong-un in terms Kim would not want the world and especially his elites to see. After failing to stop the film diplomatically, North Korea may have been motivated to escalate its efforts.

  Dec 11, 2014

  Newsweek

• 
  Weapons of Mass Destruction

  N.K. WMDs Carry Catastrophic Potential

  The failure of the United States and South Korea to prevent North Korea from gaining significant quantities of weapons of mass destruction saddles those governments with serious military responsibilities, should North Korea go to war or should its government collapse.

  Nov 19, 2014

  The Korea Herald

• 
  International Diplomacy

  What Does North Korea Want?

  Currently, three U.S. citizens are being detained in North Korea. It is likely that North Korea wants someone like a former U.S. president to come to North Korea instead of U.S. Ambassador Bob King, whose visits were cancelled.

  Sep 18, 2014

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Japan

  Why Japan's Military Shift Is Necessary for South Korea

  With its collective self-defense policy, Japan assumes its responsibilities to support the defense of South Korea and regional security in general, an appropriate action given the economic and other independencies of the regional countries.

  Jul 7, 2014

  The Wall Street Journal

• 
  North Korea

  North Korea's Latest Military Operations

  Whatever form of chest thumping comes next from Kim, it is clear that his goal is to put forward the appearance of strength and power, when in reality he faces instability at home and scorn from the international community.

  Apr 8, 2014

  The RAND Blog

• 
  North Korea

  N. Korea Could Fall Faster Than We Think

  The United States, South Korea and their allies would be well advised to factor in the possibility that North Korea could collapse in a fit of revolt and economic decay at any time, just as East Germany did, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Jun 3, 2013

  The Korea Herald

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  Security Cooperation

  Enhancing Security Cooperation at the Korea-U.S. Summit

  The U.S.-South Korean Extended Deterrence Policy Committee was setup to deter North Korean threats. The upcoming summit should ratify the progress of this effort, reassuring both the Korean and U.S. people that these threats are being managed.

  May 7, 2013

  The Korea Herald

• 
  North Korea

  North Korea's Third Nuclear Test: A Sign of Weakness, Not Strength

  The ROK and the United States should take actions to deter subsequent North Korean provocations while punishing the country for its nuclear weapon test. Such actions could convince it that the ROK/U.S. are serious and able to impose high costs, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Feb 15, 2013

  The RAND Blog

• 
  North Korea

  North Korean 'Satellite' May Fall from Sky, but That Won't Deter Kim Jong-Un

  Kim Jong-Un's regime has placed outsized import on its missile launches—despite the risk of alienating the international community—to offset the lack of success across a wide range of topics, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Dec 21, 2012

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Global Security

  North Korea's Just Getting Started

  While many observers of North Korea have been surprised by the apparently peaceful ascension of Kim Jong-Un, there are reasons to believe that the situation in the North is not so stable, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Dec 12, 2012

  U.S. News & World Report

• 
  Chemical Weapons and Warfare

  Syria's Chemical Weapons, and Beyond

  Every possible effort toward peaceful resolution and proliferation avoidance, even to the extent of offering safe passage and immunity to reprehensible characters in order to buy the safe transfer and control of such materials, is worth consideration, write James T. Quinlivan and Bruce W. Bennett.

  Jul 26, 2012

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

• 

  North Korean Defense Chief's Retirement Has Hallmarks of Purge

  It is notable that North Korea's Politburo made the Ri announcement, suggesting a rise in power of the party relative to the military. The choice of Ri's successor is also curious, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Jul 17, 2012

  The RAND Blog and GlobalSecurity.org

• 
  Military Strategy

  Anatomy of a War Game

  War games are especially important as countries prepare to counter adversaries who use asymmetric strategies or weapons, forcing military planners to deal with unfamiliar threats, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Jun 12, 2012

  World Policy Blog

• 
  Global Security

  North Korea: Uncertain and Dangerous Times Ahead

  With his father's support over the last year, Kim Jong-Un has tried to rapidly reshape the North Korean leadership structure, giving him many new subordinates who are untried and lacking experience. Some will clearly make mistakes, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Dec 21, 2011

  The RAND Blog

• 
  Nuclear Disarmament

  Alternative to Futile Negotiations with N.K.

  Clearly, it's time for a new strategy, one that North Korea has been loathe to discuss: hasten Korean unification under South Korea's leadership, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Nov 23, 2010

  The Korea Herald

• 

  The Sinking of the Cheonan: Engage or Retaliate?

  North Korea's apparent sinking of the South Korean warship Cheonan marks a new low in the North's provocative behavior. While some would prefer to respond with carrots rather than sticks, it is time to take action that imposes political costs on Kim Jong-il, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Jun 30, 2010

  Global Asia, A Journal of the East Asia Foundation

• 
  South Korea

  Managing Catastrophic North Korea Risks

  In recent years, U.S. commanders of the ROK/U.S. Combined Forces Command have been unanimous in stating that CFC could defeat a North Korean invasion. Nevertheless, they have also expressed concern about the catastrophic damage that North Korea could do to the ROK before losing, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Jan 21, 2010

  The Korea Herald

• 
  Security Cooperation

  Getting Value from the U.S.-ROK Summit

  For months, North Korea has been trying to upstage the summit between South Korean President Lee Myung-bak and U.S. President Barack Obama that is scheduled for June 16. Almost all Americans I know have heard of these North Korean provocations. But few have heard anything about the U.S.-ROK summit, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Jun 15, 2009

  The Korea Herald

• 
  Nuclear Deterrence

  No Surprise in Failure to Deter N. Korea

  North Korea's latest misbehavior highlights an uncomfortable truth: the failure of the United States and the international community to deter North Korean actions. In this case, it is pretty easy to see why North Korea has not been deterred, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Jun 2, 2009

  Chicago Tribune

• 
  North Korea

  N.K. Provocation Suggests Regime in Trouble

  North Korea spent weeks preparing to launch a ballistic missile that could reach the United States. It argued that the launch was intended to put a satellite into orbit. But a space launch vehicle is a ballistic missile used for a modestly different purpose, writes Bruce W. Bennett.

  Apr 9, 2009

  The Korea Herald

• 
  Nuclear Weapons and Warfare

  A New National Strategy for Korea: North Korea Threats Require Deterrence, Reconciliation

  The new Korean government should fully recognize the North Korean military threats and respond by fielding military counters against dangerous North Korean military capabilities, writes Bruce Bennett.

  Mar 13, 2008

  The Korea Herald

• 

  Changes From Command Transfer

  Published commentary by RAND staff: Changes From Command Transfer, in Korea Times.

  Dec 6, 2006

  Korea Times

• 

  N Korea Policy Options

  Published commentary by RAND staff: N Korea Policy Options, in United Press International.

  Nov 28, 2006

  United Press International

• 

  What's to Stop Kim Now?

  Published commentary by RAND staff: What's to Stop Kim Now?, in International Herald Tribune.

  Oct 17, 2006

  International Herald Tribune

• 

  On the Edge

  Published commentary by RAND staff: On the Edge, in the Washington Times.

  Oct 15, 2006

  Washington Times

• 

  A Different Axis: Don't Try Regime Change in North Korea

  Is it time for Operation Korean Freedom? The regime change in Iraq has prompted some to urge regime change in the other two members of the President George W. Bush's "axis of evil," North Korea and Iran.

  Jan 31, 2004

  International Herald Tribune

• 

  Now, Back to the Real Threat? The One with Nukes

  While the mop-up of the war in Iraq dominates the news today, North Korea remains an unresolved crisis that could mean nuclear war for the United States.

  Apr 13, 2003

  Orange County Register

• 

  N. Korea's Threat to S. Korea

  Published commentary by RAND staff.

  Mar 7, 2003

  United Press International

• 

  Four Horrible Choices in North Korea

  Every option the United States faces in resolving our nuclear dispute with North Korea is a horrible choice -- but some are more horrible than others, writes Bruce Bennett in an commentary.

  Jan 14, 2003

  San Diego Union-Tribune

• 

  North Korea -- Friend or Foe?

  While the level of mistrust between the U.S. and North Korea is too high for very close cooperation now, North Korea has apparently offered to provide terrorist-related information to Washington. The U.S. should pursue such discussions.

  Dec 2, 2001

  Los Angeles Times

Publications

• 

  Report

  Characterizing the Risks of North Korean Chemical and Biological Weapons, Electromagnetic Pulse, and Cyber Threats

  The authors provide a comprehensive overview, based on open sources, of North Korean capabilities in terms of its weapons of mass destruction and cyber operations, assess the threats these pose, and suggest possible responses.

  Aug 29, 2022

• 

  Journal Article

  Nuclear-Use Cases for Contemplating Crisis and Conflict on the Korean Peninsula

  The paper identifies possible cases/scenarios that would lead to first use of nuclear weapons on the Korean Peninsula.

  Apr 5, 2022

• 

  Report

  Engaging with North Korea: Lessons from Game Theory

  In this report, the authors apply a game theoretic lens to the current confrontation between the United States and North Korea to provide insights and recommendations.

  Aug 12, 2021

• 

  Report

  Countering the Risks of North Korean Nuclear Weapons

  The authors argue that the United States and the Republic of Korea (ROK) should pursue firm deterrence of North Korean nuclear weapon use—which might soon pose a serious threat to the United States and the ROK—rather than relying primarily on negotiations.

  Apr 12, 2021

• 

  Journal Article

  South Korea: Capable Now, Questions for the Future

  South Korea is a capable US military ally. It faces a substantial military threat from North Korea, especially North Korea's WMD. South Korea's demographics are shrinking its military, challenging South Korea's ability to defend itself in the future.

  Nov 3, 2020

• 

  Tool

  Four Problems on the Korean Peninsula: North Korea's Expanding Nuclear Capabilities Drive a Complex Set of Problems

  This toolkit provides visualizations illuminating four Korea-related problems: North Korea's nuclear arsenal, North Korean artillery systems, evacuating South Korean population centers, and securing North Korean nuclear weapons and facilities.

  Jan 11, 2019

• 

  Report

  Alternative Paths to Korean Unification

  In this report, the author describes challenges to any potential unification of Korea and outlines alternative paths to unification. He also recommends actions that South Korea and the United States could take to achieve a more favorable outcome.

  Oct 31, 2018

• 

  Journal Article

  After the Summit: Prospects for the Korean Peninsula

  History suggests that the most probable consequence of the Singapore Summit will be difficult and lengthy negotiation followed by slow and inadequate compliance, quite possibly on both sides.

  Jul 18, 2018

• 

  Report

  Strengthening U.S.-ROK Relations in the New Administrations of the United States and South Korea: Findings from an October 2016 RAND Corporation Conference

  This summary outlines presentations and discussions from an October 2016 conference on relations between the United States and the Republic of Korea, with a focus on strengthening regional security and economic relations.

  Apr 27, 2018

• 

  Report

  Preparing North Korean Elites for Unification

  For years, the Republic of Korea (also known as South Korea) has pursued a policy of peaceful reunification with North Korea. This report examines what could be done to convince North Korean elites that unification would be good for them.

  Apr 27, 2017

• 

  Multimedia

  U.S.–Japan Alliance Conference Series Proceedings

  In a series of conferences, U.S. and Japanese experts explored the challenges for the U.S.-Japan alliance associated with China's military modernization drive and increasing foreign policy assertiveness.

  Jan 21, 2015

• 

  Testimony

  Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse

  Briefing presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on January 29, 2014.

  Jan 29, 2014

• 

  Testimony

  The Challenge of North Korean Biological Weapons

  Testimony presented before the House Armed Services Subcommittee on Intelligence, Emerging Threats and Capabilities on October 11, 2013.

  Oct 11, 2013

• 

  Report

  Preparing for the Possibility of a North Korean Collapse

  A North Korean government collapse would have serious consequences, including a potential humanitarian disaster and civil war. The Republic of Korea and its U.S. ally will almost certainly have to intervene, but are ill-prepared to do so.

  Sep 19, 2013

• 

  Journal Article

  The Sixty Years of the Korea-U.S. Security Alliance: Past, Present, and Future

  Because North Korea is a failing state, the ROK and the United States must seek to deter, and, if necessary, defeat a range of North Korean challenges, from provocations to major war.

  2013

• 

  Journal Article

  Deterring North Korea from Using WMD in Future Conflicts and Crises

  The United States and its allies need an effective means to deter North Korea's use of weapons of mass destruction (WMD).

  2012

• 

  Journal Article

  The Collapse of North Korea: Military Missions and Requirements

  In North Korea, the upcoming leadership transition in the Kim Jong-il regime will be a precarious time for the Kim family's hold on power.

  Oct 1, 2011

• 

  Report

  Early Observations on Possible Defenses by the Emerging Threat Agent Project

  Gaps in defenses against chemical and biological weapon agents can pose a serious risk to U.S. military operations. This paper summarizes early expert observations about the threat and possible responses.

  Jan 19, 2011

• 

  Report

  Uncertainties in the North Korean Nuclear Threat

  Examines the uncertainties in the North Korean nuclear weapon threat, including the number and nature of North Korean nuclear weapons, their potential delivery means, how they could be used, and what effects they might cause.

  May 24, 2010

• 

  Report

  A Brief Analysis of the Republic of Korea’s Defense Reform Plan

  An analysis of the Republic of Korea's Defense Reform Plan.

  Jun 12, 2006

• 

  Report

  Flexible Combat Modeling

  Flexible Combat Modeling

  2004

• 

  Report

  New Challenges, New Tools for Defense Decisionmaking

  Addresses the new challenges for defense policy in a world transformed by the end of the Cold War and then the war on terrorism, and sketches new analytic techniques for framing particular defense issues.

  2003

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  Report

  Metrics for the Quadrennial Defense Review’s Operational Goals

  Takes a first cut at identifying metrics for evaluating, advancing, and monitoring progress toward attaining the six operational goals highlighted in the 2001 Quadrennial Defense Review.

  2003

• 

  Report

  The Implications of the September 11 Terrorist Attacks for California: A Collection of Issue Papers

  This collection of issue papers illustrates that there is work to be done to improve our understanding of terrorism's longer-term effects.

  2002

• 

  Report

  What Are Asymmetric Strategies?

  What Are Asymmetric Strategies?

  1999

• 

  Report

  Integrating Counterproliferation into Defense Planning

  This document describes the implications of weapons of mass destruction proliferation on U.S. defense planning. The authors believe that, at the margin, improvements in passive defenses should be given priority over increases in firepower.

  1997

• 

  Report

  Integrating Counterproliferation into Defense Planning

  The United States has long sought to halt the spread of weapons of mass destruction (WMD) and has met with substantial success. However, the shadow of WMD is present in any crisis.

  1997

• 

  Report

  The Demand for Military Health Care: Supporting Research for a Comprehensive Study of the Military Health Care System

  In weighing the pros and cons of various alternatives, this report suggests that military beneficiaries might prefer civilian health plans, as long as there is no erosion of benefits in making such a shift.

  1995

• 

  Report

  JICM 1.0 Summary

  This report documents the Joint Contingency Model (JICM), a global war gaming and analysis system that focuses on conflict from major regional contingencies through strategic warfare.

  1994

• 

  Report

  New Challenges for Defense Planning: Rethinking How Much Is Enough

  This book is a collection of essays by senior defense analysts at RAND, all of whom have been deeply involved in post-Cold War defense planning studies for the Department of Defense.

  1994

• 

  Report

  Theater Analysis and Modeling in an Era of Uncertainty: The Present and Future of Warfare

  This report presents the results of war gaming and analysis on the future of warfare.

  1994

• 

  Report

  The New Map Graphics in RSAS 5.0

  The RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) is a global warfare analysis system developed over the last decade for the Director of Net Assessment in the Office of the Secretary of Defense.

  1993

• 

  Report

  RSAS 4.6 Summary

  This Note summarizes the development status of RSAS 4.6, as released, describing each of its components and how they have been changed since RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS) 4.0.

  1992

• 

  Report

  Main Theater Warfare Modeling in the RAND Strategy Assessment System (3.0)

  This Note provides an overview of the main theater warfare model developed as part of the RAND Strategy Assessment System (RSAS, Release 3.0), in a game-structured simulation of global conflict.

  1988

• 

  Report

  Reflecting Soviet Thinking in the Structure of Combat Models and Data

  This paper provides an overview of the CAMPAIGN model being developed by the RAND Strategy Assessment Center (RSAC) for use in strategic and operational-level gaming and simulation.

  1985

• 

  Report

  The Role of Automated War Gaming in Strategic Analysis

  Experience with the prototype system has highlighted some very challenging issues in learning how to use humans and machines effectively in war gaming and analysis. This paper discusses some of those issues.

  1984

• 

  Report

  Automated War Gaming as a Technique for Exploring Strategic Command and Control Issues

  Describes a preliminary concept for including strategic command and control effects within the automated war gaming of RAND's Strategy Assessment Center.

  1983

• 

  Report

  The Geographic Distribution of Physicians: Is the Conventional Wisdom Correct?

  In this report, the authors show that a number of predictions of standard location theory are consistent with the data on physician location.

  1982

• 

  Report

  How Have Location Patterns of Physicians Affected the Availability of Medical Services?

  An analysis of the location of 17 categories of physicians in the years 1970 to 1979. As the supply of physicians grew during these years, smaller communities increasingly acquired various types of medical and surgical specialty services.

  1982

• 

  Journal Article

  Where Have All the Doctors Gone?

  As the supply of physicians grew during the 1970s, medical and surgical specialists diffused into smaller communities.

  1982

• 

  Report

  Assessing the Capabilities of Strategic Nuclear Forces: The Limits of Current Methods

  The purpose of this Note is to assess the nature and validity of the various procedures used in assessing strategic forces capabilities.

  1980

• 

  Report

  The Changing Geographic Distribution of Board-Certified Physicians: Facts, Theory, and Implications

  This is a study of the recent distribution of board-certified specialists among cities and towns of different sizes.

  1980

• 

  Report

  How to Assess the Survivability of U.S. ICBMs: Appendixes

  Technical appendixes providing substantive background supporting R-2577's development of a methodology for assessing ICBM survivability.

  1980

• 

  Report

  How to Assess the Survivability of U.S. ICBMs

  Develops complete survivability distributions for U.S. ICBMs under various conditions of Soviet attack and under three U.S. basing options: silos, trenches, and shelters.

  1980

• 

  Report

  Fatality Uncertainties in Limited Nuclear War

  Presents counterarguments to the article "Limited Nuclear War," by S. D. Drell and F. von Hippel, [Scientific American], November 1976.

  1977

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