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North Korea

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North Korea, formerly designated a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, emerged as a nuclear-armed enigma under the dictatorship of Kim-Jong Il. RAND’s research on both deterrence and failed states includes expert analysis of the North Korean regime, opportunities for its modernization and democratization, and implications for post–Cold War geopolitics.

Report

Engaging with North Korea: Lessons from Game Theory

Aug 12, 2021

Applying game theory to the situation in North Korea may provide insights into how the United States can deal with Kim Jong-un and carry out negotiations on denuclearization.
Report

From Hermit Kingdom to Open for Business

May 25, 2021

When the situation in North Korea becomes conducive to foreign investment and development, what might it take to kick-start the country's economy?

Explore North Korea

Commentary

Japan's Potential Acquisition of Ground-Launched Land-Attack Missiles: Implications for the U.S.-Japanese Alliance

If Japan acquired ground-based strike capabilities, it would have significant consequences for the U.S.-Japanese alliance. American and Japanese policymakers may need to have a new and expanded set of conversations about how such capabilities would be used and how the alliance could adjust to incorporate them.

Sep 9, 2021
Blog

Insights on Afghanistan, Back to School, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the collapse in Afghanistan, what parents think about sending kids back to school, insights from game theory on North Korean denuclearization, and more.

Aug 20, 2021
Commentary

Can China Be a Real Partner in Bringing North Korea to the Nuclear Negotiating Table?

The United States remains committed to the goal of denuclearization of North Korea. China is more interested in maintaining a delicate geopolitical balance to counter U.S. influence in the region and in expanding its own reach. Thus, prospects for productive U.S.-China cooperation on the North Korean nuclear threat seem faint at best.

Jul 14, 2021
Commentary

North Korean Nuclear Weapons Pose an Existential Threat to China

Despite the current border closures between their two countries, China and North Korea remain resolutely pledged to a “blood-alliance.” But this partnership has vastly different implications depending on which side of the border you consider.

Jul 13, 2021
Blog

Equity in Research, North Korean Instability, Traffic Stops: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how RAND applies an equity lens to research, instability in North Korea, what police think about traffic stops, and more.

Jul 9, 2021
Commentary

Trying to Manage North Korean Instability Risks

The regime in North Korea usually makes extreme efforts to prevent outsiders and even its own people from seeing instabilities there. But Kim Jong-un appears to be taking some risks trying to solidify his grip in the wake of events undermining his control.

Jun 30, 2021
Commentary

Takeaways from the Biden-Moon Summit: Three Observations on China

North Korea was not the only elephant in the room during the recent U.S.–South Korea summit. In the broader context of U.S. foreign policy priorities and South Korea's geopolitical concerns, China was probably the larger presence.

Jun 7, 2021
Commentary

The Biden-Moon Meetings: Much Ado About Something?

The May summit meeting between U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in elicited a wide range of opinion about its value. With diplomacy-first progressives in power simultaneously in both nations for the first time in two decades, even subtle gains may be significant.

Jun 4, 2021
Commentary

An Economic Blueprint for North Korea

It would be simplistic to think that developing detailed blueprints for economic development in North Korea could on its own cut through decades of conflict and mistrust, triggering political and economic reform. But by expanding the terms of the debate it might move the needle on peace.

Jun 4, 2021
Commentary

U.S.-ROK Summit: Assessing Moon's Vaccine and Peace Promises

U.S. President Joe Biden and South Korean President Moon Jae-in held their first in-person summit in Washington in May. But beyond the formalities, how fruitful was this first sit-down, face-to-face, no-mask meeting for Moon?

Jun 3, 2021
Journal Article

Netizen Opinion and China's Foreign Policy: Interpreting Narratives About North Korea on Chinese Social Media

This article collects a novel dataset of thousands of Chinese-language social media posts on the leading microblog, Sina Weibo, in 2015. Analysis of this dataset reveals four multilayered popular Chinese narratives on North Korea.

May 18, 2021
Journal Article

Deciphering PLA Media Commentaries on North Korea: All Show or Real Talk?

Does Chinese military commentary represent accurate and authoritative views on policy toward North Korea? Are there certain military officials or publications that we should watch closely?

May 14, 2021
Journal Article

Through the Looking Glass: Chinese Open Source Assessments of North Korea's Ballistic Missile Capabilities

This report examines Chinese assessments of North Korean ballistic missile capabilities between 1998 and 2017. Chinese analyses mirror Western conclusions that North Korea has a functional ICBM that can reach the U.S. with a nuclear weapon.

May 14, 2021
Report

New Model Helps Predict Cyber Threats and Improve Resilience

Today's evolving cyber threats require a tailored and targeted approach to cybersecurity. Current defenses focus on managing threats after a network has been breached. RAND's Scalable Warning and Resilience Model (SWARM) can help defenders proactively protect their systems through early warning of cyber incidents before they occur.

May 11, 2021
Commentary

Biden's North Korea Policy Review Is Sparse on Details. Here's One Interpretation

The Biden administration recently completed its North Korea policy review. Details have been sparse, but based on prior U.S. dealings with the Kims, some informed guesses about Washington's approach towards Pyongyang under the new administration can be had. Here's one.

May 6, 2021
Blog

Summer Learning, America's Middle Class, Waking Up After the Pandemic: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how to make summer learning count, U.S. deterrence in the ‘gray zone,’ why so many Americans are stuck outside the middle class, and more.

Apr 23, 2021
Commentary

COVID-19 Exacerbates North Korea's Bad Choices

Recently, Kim Jong-un admitted that North Korea is facing a dire situation. It was surprising that he would admit circumstances which at face value suggest major failures on his part. Why is Kim admitting that such circumstances are developing in the North now?

Apr 20, 2021
Commentary

Think the Coronavirus Is Curbing Kim's Atomic Appetite? Think Again

Coronavirus or not, Kim Jong-un's appetite for nuclear and missile bargaining with the United States remains intact. This likely spells further weapons demonstrations from North Korea, with potentially longer-range missile demonstrations to test Washington's resolve in its nuclear negotiations with Pyongyang.

Apr 20, 2021

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RAND Topic:
North Korea

Topic Synonyms:
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

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