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North Korea, formerly designated a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, emerged as a nuclear-armed enigma under the dictatorship of Kim-Jong Il. RAND’s research on both deterrence and failed states includes expert analysis of the North Korean regime, opportunities for its modernization and democratization, and implications for post–Cold War geopolitics.

Report

How to Prepare North Korean Elites for Unification

Apr 27, 2017

North Korean propaganda suggests that unification led by the South would be a disaster for Northern elites. Unless the elites are convinced otherwise, peaceful unification may be impossible. What could South Korea do to help them feel better about, or at least less resistant to, unification?
Report

The Korean Peninsula: Three Dangerous Scenarios

May 30, 2018

An analysis of three potential security challenges on the Korean Peninsula points to rising threats that will pose significant demands on the U.S. Army. The United States needs to think in new ways about how it should deter North Korea and prepare for a possible conflict on the peninsula.

Explore North Korea

Commentary

North Korean Actions Speak Louder Than Its Words

Kim Jong Un has regularly promised to denuclearize, but he's been all talk. And this year, North Korea has probably built five to nine more nuclear weapons. There are steps that could make a difference if taken before the North Korean nuclear weapon threat grows any further.

Oct 11, 2018
Commentary

Making Sense of South Korea's Cautious Optimism on North Korea

South Korea is cautiously optimistic that North Korea will denuclearize, and it hopes that this will lead to the normalization of relations. The vast majority of U.S. observers believe that the North is bluffing. Seoul and Washington should continue to strive for transparency about the future of the peninsula.

Jul 24, 2018
Journal Article

Journal Article

After the Summit: Prospects for the Korean Peninsula

History suggests that the most probable consequence of the Singapore Summit will be difficult and lengthy negotiation followed by slow and inadequate compliance, quite possibly on both sides.

Jul 18, 2018
Multimedia

What's Next for Korea?

In this Call with the Experts, RAND's James Dobbins, Bruce Bennett, and Michael Mazarr discuss the historic summit between U.S. President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un.

Jul 10, 2018
Periodical

Periodical

RAND Review: July-August 2018

This issue spotlights RAND's Gun Policy in America initiative and RAND's evaluation of Housing for Health, a Los Angeles County program that has moved some of its most chronically homeless and vulnerable residents into permanent housing.

Jul 2, 2018
Commentary

Success with North Korea Still Needs Japan

Japan has stakes in the outcome of regional diplomacy involving North Korea. It could play a role far beyond simply writing checks for an agreement, but has not held any bilateral meetings with the other actors. Diplomats hoping to fit their approach to the realities of the geopolitical situation could benefit from Japan's active involvement.

Jun 27, 2018
Commentary

Why This Wasn't Kim's Father's—or Grandfather's—Summit

This is the third time the United States and North Korea have started down a path toward denuclearization and normalization of relations. The difference now is that Trump and Kim have committed themselves earlier on in the process and more publicly than their predecessors did.

Jun 13, 2018
Commentary

Difficulties Integrating North Korean Defectors Suggest Challenges in Reunifying Korea

Despite expansive government aid, North Korean defectors in South Korea remain a nation within a nation, co-existent yet separate. If South Korea cannot fully adopt and assimilate 30,805 North Korea defectors, how will South Korea ever embrace roughly 25 million North Koreans in the event of reunification?

Jun 11, 2018
Commentary

Kim-Trump Summit Rife with Opportunity for U.S.

The growing costs of planning for Korean military contingencies place a burden on U.S. defense resources. If Tuesday's summit becomes a step toward eventual guarantees against aggression, the U.S. could remove a major Korean conflict from the top rungs of its defense planning roster, freeing resources for other worries.

Jun 11, 2018
Report

Report

Lessons from Others for Future U.S. Army Operations in and Through the Information Environment

An examination of the evolution of both allied and adversary use of information power, alongside a comparative analysis of capability areas in which these others excel, can guide future U.S. Army force planning.

Jun 7, 2018
Report

Report

Lessons from Others for Future U.S. Army Operations in and Through the Information Environment: Case Studies

Twelve detailed case studies examine of the activities and strategic goals of allies, adversaries, and potential adversaries in and through the information environment, highlighting insights for U.S. Army planning.

Jun 7, 2018
Commentary

Six Lessons for Today from Past Summits

To prepare for possible meetings with his North Korean and Russian counterparts, President Trump can learn lessons from decades of high-profile summits between U.S. presidents and Kremlin leaders.

Jun 5, 2018
Commentary

North Korea Is Not Like Libya

The prospect of a U.S.-North Korea summit has led to analogies between the present case and that of Libya, which abandoned its longstanding quest to develop nuclear weapons in 2003. But a better precedent would be the 2015 deal that froze Iran's nuclear weapons program.

Jun 1, 2018
Commentary

Canceled Summit Doesn't Spell End to U.S.-North Korea Nuclear Diplomacy

President Trump canceled his June 12 meeting with Kim Jong-un but left the door open for a future one. Successful diplomacy will require tending and fostering U.S. relations with China, Japan, and South Korea while forging an entirely new relationship with North Korea.

May 25, 2018
Commentary

The Strategic Fallout of U.S. Withdrawal from the Iran Deal

President Trump withdrew from the Iran nuclear agreement. What will happen next? Friction between the United States and its European allies will likely increase, while Iran moves closer to China and Russia. Also, the resentment of a new generation of Iranians toward America is likely to grow.

May 10, 2018
Report

Report

Strengthening U.S.-ROK Relations in the New Administrations of the United States and South Korea: Findings from an October 2016 RAND Corporation Conference

This summary outlines presentations and discussions from an October 2016 conference on relations between the United States and the Republic of Korea, with a focus on strengthening regional security and economic relations.

Apr 27, 2018
Commentary

Are Chemical Weapons Becoming a Tacitly Accepted Weapon of War?

The international community should consider serious options to hold perpetrators of chemical attacks accountable and stop further attacks. These are not easy choices. But the alternative is accepting that long-held norms are crumbling, and the world is sliding back to a time when inhumane tools of war were common.

Apr 18, 2018
Blog

Preparing for U.S.-North Korea Talks

What are the chances that a meeting between North Korean leader Kim Jong-un and President Trump will lead to meaningful progress? And what should U.S. leaders be thinking about as they prepare? RAND's Bruce Bennett discusses.

Apr 5, 2018
Report

Options for Flying Contraband into North Korea

Activist groups in South Korea are seeking improvements in the balloons they use to carry political, religious, and humanitarian materials across the border into North Korea. Balloon delivery techniques have evolved and some have started using hexacopter drones. How effective are these methods?

Apr 2, 2018

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RAND Topic:
North Korea

Topic Synonyms:
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

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