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North Korea, formerly designated a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, emerged as a nuclear-armed enigma under the dictatorship of Kim-Jong Il. RAND’s research on both deterrence and failed states includes expert analysis of the North Korean regime, opportunities for its modernization and democratization, and implications for post–Cold War geopolitics.

Report

Alternative Paths to Korean Unification

Oct 31, 2018

There are many ways in which Korean unification could occur or be attempted, and each holds vast uncertainties. What actions could South Korea and the United States take to set the conditions for stable reunification?
Tool

Four Problems on the Korean Peninsula

Jan 11, 2019

North Korean provocations and threats have created an unstable environment on the Korean Peninsula. The United States and its allies must attend to four interconnected problems. Failure to prepare will increase the chance of miscalculation and constrain options to reduce the likelihood or gravity of future conflicts.

Explore North Korea

Commentary

Is North Korea Prepared to End the Korean War?

The end of the Korean War and peace on the peninsula are no more likely to occur as the result of a peace agreement than has North Korean denuclearization occurred as the result of multiple denuclearization agreements. Ultimately, North Korean objectives matter, and real peace does not appear to be part of those objectives.

Jun 29, 2020
Commentary

For the U.S., South Korea, and Japan, It’s the North Korean Regime, Not Kim Jong Un Per Se, That Is the Threat

Would Kim Jong Un's death improve U.S., South Korean, and Japanese security? Maybe not. North Korea's advancing nuclear and other military capabilities are driving an expanded set of problems, and while Kim's sudden death might constitute a destabilizing factor for the regime, the available evidence suggests the regime itself is the problem.

Jun 8, 2020
Commentary

North Korea Post–Kim Jong Un Reappearance: Expect Business as Usual in the Hermit Kingdom

Kim Jong Un's return, while it leaves much to be desired in the way of explanation, should send one message to the international audience: North Korea's fate rests still in the hands of Kim Jong Un. And judging by appearances in recent days, Kim does not appear to intend to change the course of his strategy to reduce tensions with the United States.

May 19, 2020
Commentary

North Korean Provocations, Not Denuclearization

Kim Jong-un's reappearance raises questions about the course of U.S.–North Korea relationships in the coming year. What should we expect? What can we learn from the past?

May 8, 2020
Blog

A Proposed COVID-19 Cure, Economic Decline, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the unintended consequences of a proposed COVID-19 treatment, another wave of economic destruction, North Korea after Kim Jong Un, and more.

May 1, 2020
Multimedia

The Future of the North Korean Regime

Soo Kim, policy analyst with the RAND Corporation, discusses the future of the North Korean regime.

Apr 28, 2020
Commentary

North Korea After Kim Jong Un: 'How' Matters More Than 'Who'

With rumors swirling that Kim Jong Un has suffered a health crisis, some are already asking who might succeed him as leader of North Korea. But who is not the most important question. What will matter more is what the new regime does to establish its legitimacy and how the United States and its allies respond.

Apr 28, 2020
Commentary

Why We Really Don't Know What Happens If Kim Jong Un Dies

The potential changes in the North Korean regime pose more questions than they answer. How prepared are observers and keen watchers from the “outside world” for a North Korean contingency? Should there be a power vacuum in Pyongyang, will U.S. policy toward the DPRK remain largely as-is?

Apr 27, 2020
Blog

Medical Supply Shortfalls, Parenting Through the Pandemic, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on reducing medical supply shortfalls, understanding who's in charge during a pandemic, North Korea's nuclear blackmail, and more.

Apr 17, 2020
Commentary

The Coronavirus and North Korea: Is There a Cure for Kim's Nuclear Blackmail?

Despite the pandemic, North Korea's recent activities suggest that Kim Jong Un will likely stay the course in his ongoing campaign against the United States and the broader Northeast Asia region.

Apr 13, 2020
Commentary

North Korea: Denying COVID-19

According to Pyongyang, North Korea has not yet suffered any cases of COVID-19. That would be surprising, since it is a neighbor and extensive trading partner of China. There are signs that this claim is yet another North Korean deception.

Apr 2, 2020
Commentary

U.S.–South Korea OPCON Transition: The Element of Timing

As Washington and Seoul continue to examine the feasibility and conditions for wartime operational control transition, decisionmakers will likely face political pressure on timing. It may well be to the advantage of both allies that the determination of the transfer be driven by a hard, thorough diagnosis of military capabilities against emerging threats.

Apr 2, 2020
Commentary

Japan's North Korea Challenge in 2020

North Korea began 2020 by announcing a shift toward a more hard-line foreign policy approach. While this is bad news for all countries in the region, it is particularly unwelcome for Japan.

Jan 27, 2020
Blog

Preventing the Winter Blues, North Korea, Opioids: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on how to ward off the winter blues, Kim Jong Un's latest threat, how to spend opioid settlement funds, and more.

Jan 3, 2020
Commentary

North Korea: Selling Political Deception

Why did Kim Jong-un substitute releasing the North Korean Workers' Party Plenary report instead of his traditional New Year's address? As with many things in North Korea, we do not know, forcing us to speculate.

Jan 3, 2020
Commentary

Stability in Northeast Asia and the North Korean 'Christmas Present'

North Korea's extreme rhetoric is worrying people in Northeast Asia. Pyongyang is threatening a presumably violent “Christmas gift” to the United States at the same time that Washington's patience with Pyongyang has worn thin.

Dec 24, 2019
Commentary

North Korea Holds Most of the Cards in Nuclear Negotiations

North Korea has been reminding the United States that the window to negotiate a nuclear deal is closing. Pyongyang will likely continue trying to force Washington's hand into a deal that allows North Korea to keep its weapons while still reaping economic and political concessions.

Dec 20, 2019
Commentary

South Korea Should Consider Sticking with Intelligence-Sharing Pact with Japan

South Korea announced its intent to withdraw from an intelligence-sharing arrangement with Japan. There are four reasons that Seoul should strongly consider reversing course.

Nov 5, 2019
Blog

The Syria Withdrawal, Climate Policy, Drones: RAND Weekly Recap

This weekly recap focuses on the effects of the U.S. withdrawal from Syria, one expert's take on climate policy, how drones could help get blood to soldiers who need it, and more.

Oct 25, 2019
Commentary

U.S. Economic War on China Weakens Nuclear North Korea, Too

An effective way to bend North Korea toward denuclearization may be exerting consistent and targeted pressure on China. Diminishing Beijing's relevance isn't a cure-all. But it could pierce Kim's illusion of invincibility and place him in a bind to make some concessions.

Oct 18, 2019

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RAND Topic:
North Korea

Topic Synonyms:
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

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