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North Korea, formerly designated a state sponsor of terrorism by the United States, emerged as a nuclear-armed enigma under the dictatorship of Kim-Jong Il. RAND’s research on both deterrence and failed states includes expert analysis of the North Korean regime, opportunities for its modernization and democratization, and implications for post–Cold War geopolitics.

Commentary
North Korea, Russia and China: The Developing Trilateral Imperialist Partnership
There are no easy ways for the United States and its allies to counter the developing Russia-China–North Korea partnership. But there are options to consider and steps to take. There are also fissures in their relationships to exploit.
Sep 13, 2023
Commentary
A Nuke for a Nuke? Public Debate and Political Party Views on Nuclear Acquisition in South Korea
There is a high level of uncertainty and a lack of clarity surrounding the issue of South Korean nuclear acquisition. What political, security, and strategic factors are key to guiding this debate in Seoul?
Mar 2, 2023

Explore North Korea

Commentary
North Korea's Satellite Launch: Part of a Bigger Problem for Kim Jong-un?
On November 21, North Korea made its third attempt of 2023 to launch a reconnaissance satellite despite this launch violating multiple U.N. Security Council resolutions and despite the urging of many other countries. It may well have been a desperate move by North Korea's leader, Kim Jong-un.
Dec 4, 2023
Commentary
Deterrence of North Korean Limited Nuclear Attacks
No single action is likely to deter North Korean nuclear weapon use. But a combination of efforts may convince Kim Jong-un that any use of nuclear weapons for coercion would be very dangerous to his future, and could be a powerful approach to deterring North Korea.
Nov 27, 2023
Blog
'Israel's 9/11,' Promoting the 988 Hotline, the Future of Space: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on why the Oct. 7 attack wasn't Israel's 9/11, humanity's future approach to space, the pressing need to ensure more people know about the 988 Suicide & Crisis Lifeline, and more.
Nov 17, 2023
Blog
Disinformation Amid the Israel-Hamas War, U.S. Gun Policy, Cannabis: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on how the information war may play out between Israel and Hamas, what the evidence says (and doesn't say) about U.S. gun policy, supply models for recreational cannabis, and more.
Nov 3, 2023
Report
South Korea Needs Greater Nuclear Assurance
With growing nuclear threats from North Korea and China, there has been considerable interest in South Korea in developing its own nuclear weapons. But doing so could become a major disaster. The United States should bring greater strategic clarity to its nuclear umbrella commitment to South Korea.
Oct 29, 2023
Commentary
What North Korea Is Learning from the Hamas-Israel War
South Korea and the United States should rein in North Korean nuclear weapon production and prepare to respond to escalated North Korean coercion. While Kim Jong-un probably won't resort to a Hamas-style attack, he certainly shares Hamas' goal of cultivating U.S. reluctance to get involved militarily in the region.
Oct 24, 2023
Blog
Israel-Hamas War, Overdose Deaths, Striking Health Care Workers: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on historical context for the Israel-Hamas war, the link between education and fatal overdoses, why U.S. health care workers are striking, and more.
Oct 13, 2023
Commentary
Nuclear Weapons in the North Korean World View
As Kim Jong-un's actions become more threatening, the risks of a catastrophic accidental nuclear war become more likely. The United States needs to make North Korean denuclearization a long-term objective but focus in the immediate future on limiting the size and danger of the North Korean nuclear weapon force.
Oct 11, 2023
Commentary
How Much Is Enough for U.S. Nuclear Forces?
Deterrence is difficult because it's about perceptions and resolve rather than just pure numbers. Potential adversaries need to perceive that the United States has enough nuclear weapons to deter them, and also that U.S. officials believe the United States has enough that Washington's resolve will not falter in the face of provocation or coercion.
Sep 27, 2023
Commentary
North Korea and China Aren't the Allies You Think They Are
China and North Korea have a history of friction, despite being seen as allies. As Russia, China, and North Korea move toward a closer trilateral partnership, the United States and its allies need to recognize that there are seams in the relationships that can be used to undermine it.
Sep 27, 2023
Blog
Escalation in Ukraine, a Trilateral Imperialist Threat, Disaster Recovery: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the risk of escalation in Ukraine, the growing threat of a North-Korea-Russia-China partnership, the economics of disaster recovery, and more.
Sep 22, 2023
Commentary
Separate U.S. Alliances in East Asia Are Obsolete
Washington manages its alliances with Tokyo and Seoul separately. But growing South Korean and Japanese military capabilities make a conversation about more integration unavoidable.
Sep 14, 2023
Commentary
A Trilateral Summit to Deal with Trilateral Threats
The leaders of Japan, South Korea, and the United States held a trilateral summit in August, focused on countering military threats in East Asia. Not surprisingly, China and North Korea were upset by the summit, designed as it was to respond to their military build-ups.
Aug 29, 2023
Blog
Violence in Sudan, Alcohol Use, North Korea: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on the violence in Sudan, preventing alcohol-related deaths, the North Korean nuclear threat, and more.
Apr 28, 2023
Commentary
How Kim's Fears Shape North Korea's Nuclear Agenda
North Korea has ramped up the frequency and intensity of its provocations, continuing its nuclear weapon–buildup while threatening attacks against South Korea and the United States. Why is Kim Jong-un making such excessive investments in North Korea's nuclear and weapons programs and showing off its capabilities?
Apr 19, 2023
Blog
20 Years After the Iraq War, China-Russia Ties, Correctional Education: RAND Weekly Recap
This weekly recap focuses on reflecting on the Iraq War, the pandemic and prison education, North Korea’s latest threats, and more.
Mar 24, 2023
Commentary
North Korea Is Forcing U.S. Military Counters
If the U.S. military shoots down a North Korean ICBM fired in the direction of the United States and its territories, North Korea will regard it as an act of war. Even in the realm of North Korean rhetoric, this is extreme.
Mar 14, 2023
Commentary
Why Is North Korea Showing Off Its ICBMs?
On February 8, North Korea held a military parade in Pyongyang to call attention to the strengths of the North's military weapons, including what appeared to be 11 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs). Can the United States and its allies afford to wait until North Korea has dozens of ICBMs and hundreds of nuclear weapons? Because that is the direction in which Kim says he is moving.
Feb 15, 2023

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RAND Topic:
North Korea

Topic Synonyms:
Democratic Peoples Republic of Korea

Research conducted by

Researcher Spotlight

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga

Policy Researcher

Nathan Beauchamp-Mustafaga is a policy researcher at the RAND Corporation, where he focuses on Asian security issues. His research interests include Chinese foreign policy, Chinese military strategy, China-North Korea relations, China’s Belt and Road Initiative, the Korean Peninsula and…
Christian Curriden

Defense Analyst

Christian Curriden is a defense analyst at the RAND Corporation. His work at RAND has mostly focused on Chinese and Korean issues, especially PLA research and development, as well as artificial intelligence applications in the PLA. His research has also touched on proxy wars, the Chinese science…

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