China is watching carefully as Russia and North Korea deepen their military ties. In this report, the authors argue that Beijing benefits indirectly from the partnership’s pressure on the United States but avoids overt involvement to protect China’s global standing and room for maneuver. The authors also outline implications for the U.S.–South Korea alliance; misreading China’s position could lead to strategic overreach or gaps in deterrence.

China’s Position on the Emerging Russia–North Korea Military Cooperation and Its Implications for the U.S.-ROK Alliance

Miyeon Oh, Mark Cozad

ResearchPublished Jul 30, 2026

China is watching carefully as Russia and North Korea deepen their military ties. In this report, the authors examine China’s evolving position regarding this partnership and assess its implications for the U.S.–Republic of Korea (ROK) alliance. Drawing on Chinese, Russian, and Western academic and policy sources, the authors find that Beijing’s primary objective is to preserve strategic flexibility amid intensifying great-power competition, and Beijing takes an official approach toward the Russia–North Korea partnership that combines strategic caution, reputational management, and deliberate ambivalence.

The authors also examine how Russian and Chinese narratives on the partnership diverge, sometimes sharply. Russian analysts tend to celebrate the partnership as a legitimate response to Western pressure, while Chinese analysts treat it as a regional variable to manage carefully. Interpreting this divergence could have significant strategic implications.

Finally, the authors argue that, for the U.S.-ROK alliance, understanding China’s ambivalence is essential to avoiding miscalculations. Overestimating Beijing’s alignment with Moscow and Pyongyang could lead to strategic overreach, but underestimating China’s influence could leave critical gaps in deterrence planning.

Key Takeaways

China is wary of ties between Russia and North Korea

  • China is concerned that deeper Russia–North Korea cooperation could increase regional instability, damage China’s global reputation, and reduce Beijing’s leverage over Pyongyang.
  • Both official and academic Chinese sources stress the limited appetite for deeper trilateral military alignment involving China.

Russia is more enthusiastic

  • Russian sources view closer ties with North Korea—and broader coordination with China—as strategically useful in confronting the West.
  • Russia is less focused on the risks of instability and more willing to support institutionalized cooperation with Pyongyang.

The Russia–North Korea partnership has implications for the U.S.-ROK alliance

  • Washington and Seoul should prepare for growing coordination among China, Russia, and North Korea without overstating the degree of strategic unity among them.
  • Exploiting divergences among Beijing, Moscow, and Pyongyang; strengthening U.S.-ROK-Japan coordination; and integrating military, economic, and diplomatic tools will be essential.

Recommendations

  • The United States and South Korea should exploit divergences among China, Russia, and North Korea where possible. Washington and Seoul should encourage Beijing to maintain its cautious stance by emphasizing areas of shared interest in nonproliferation and regional stability.
  • The United States and South Korea should leverage trilateral and multilateral frameworks. Washington and Seoul should strengthen U.S.-ROK-Japan trilateral cooperation as the most relevant mechanism for addressing Russia–North Korea military cooperation while using multilateral frameworks with regional partners—such as the trilateral security partnership between Australia, the United Kingdom, and the United States (known as AUKUS) and the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue among the United States, Australia, India, and Japan (known as the Quad)—to reinforce broader regional deterrence, defense innovation, and strategic flexibility.
  • The United States and South Korea should expand the alliance’s focus and flexibility. Policymakers in Washington and Seoul should adapt the U.S.-ROK alliance to the rapidly changing security environment created by the emerging Russia–North Korea partnership.
  • The U.S.-ROK alliance should integrate economic and diplomatic tools. Washington and Seoul should coordinate sanctions enforcement with selective engagement in ways that increase pressure on Russia–North Korea cooperation while preserving incentives for Chinese restraint.

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Oh, Miyeon and Mark Cozad, China’s Position on the Emerging Russia–North Korea Military Cooperation and Its Implications for the U.S.-ROK Alliance. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 2026. https://www.rand.org/pubs/research_reports/RRA5044-1.html.
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This research was sponsored by the Korea Foundation and conducted within the International Security and Defense Policy Program of the RAND National Security Research Division.

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