Mark Cozad

China's North Korean Challenge

China's North Korea policy seems to suffer from inertia and fear of upsetting the fragile status quo. The enduring goal is to defend Beijing's vital interests by all necessary means. These include preventing domestic insecurity and maintaining a stable buffer state at the gateway to China's political and economic heartland.

Report

Escalation in the War in Ukraine: Lessons Learned and Risks for the Future

This report evaluates the potential for further escalation in the war in Ukraine, including possible escalation to Russian nuclear use, to better inform U.S. and allied decisions and the public debate.

Research Brief

Understanding the Risk of Escalation in the War in Ukraine

This research brief describes analysis of escalation risks in the war in Ukraine, including what can be learned from the conflict to date and what escalation risks may be most acute going forward.

Report

Rethinking Jointness? The Strategic Value of Jointness in Major Power Competition and Conflict

This report examines whether the assumption that jointness is inherently valuable to the U.S. military is correct, and if so, in what ways. Understanding how and why jointness is most valuable can help the U.S. military compete more effectively.

Report

Preparing for Great Power Conflict: How Experience Shapes U.S. and Chinese Military Training

The authors examine how different direct and indirect experience has shaped the way the U.S. military and the People's Liberation Army approach training and whether these training approaches adequately prepare both militaries for great power conflict.

Report

Gaining Victory in Systems Warfare: China's Perspective on the U.S.-China Military Balance

The authors provide a detailed analysis of the factors and components associated with People's Republic of China leaders' assessments of the Chinese People's Liberation Army's strength and the implications for the U.S.-China military balance.

Testimony

Factors Shaping China's Use of Force Calculations Against Taiwan

Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on February 18, 2021.

Report

People's Liberation Army Operational Concepts

In this report, authors assess China's military theory, strategy, and guiding principles, in addition to doctrinal or operational concepts, to help U.S. strategists and planners formulate responses to China's evolving military strategy and doctrine.

Report

Russian Assessments and Applications of the Correlation of Forces and Means

The authors examine how Russia assesses and applies the correlation of forces and means -- the military balance between two opponents at the global, regional, and local levels -- and outline recent relevant developments in Russian military thought.

Report

Strategic Warning on NATO's Eastern Flank: Pitfalls, Prospects, and Limits

Russian military modernization raises concerns about the Intelligence Community's (IC's) ability to warn of Russian aggression, particularly on NATO's eastern flank. Using themes from past events, the report makes recommendations to improve warning.

Report

People's Liberation Army Air Force Operations over Water: Maintaining Relevance in China's Changing Security Environment

The report assesses notable developments in and implications of China's emerging aerospace expeditionary and power-projection capabilities, focusing particularly on the People's Liberation Army Air Force's operations over water.

Research Brief

Domestic Factors Could Accelerate the Evolution of China's Nuclear Posture

This brief discusses how domestic factors could influence China's evolving nuclear deterrent.

Testimony

Chinese Contingency Planning for Regional Hotspots

Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on April 13, 2017.

Report

China's Evolving Nuclear Deterrent: Major Drivers and Issues for the United States

This report analyzes international and domestic factors that will affect China's approach to nuclear deterrence, how those drivers may evolve over the next 15 years, and what impact they are likely to have.

Report

Assessing the Training and Operational Proficiency of China's Aerospace Forces: Selections from the Inaugural Conference of the China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI)

This volume contains revised versions of three presentations on Chinese aerospace training and operational competence issues from a June 2015 China Aerospace Studies Institute (CASI) conference.

Testimony

PLA Joint Training and Implications for Future Expeditionary Capabilities

Testimony presented before the U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission on January 21, 2016.