U.S. Options for Post–New START Arms Control with Russia

The New START Treaty (NST) is the last remaining major bilateral strategic arms control treaty between the United States and Russia. However, since Russia's invasion of Ukraine in February 2022 and suspension of treaty implementation in 2023, NST has essentially collapsed.

In light of the treaty's expiration in February 2026 and an unprecedentedly hostile bilateral relationship, the United States must carefully consider its options for what — if anything — should replace NST. In this paper, the authors outline the objectives the United States could seek to achieve in post-NST arrangements, the options it could pursue to do so, and more-ambitious alternatives should circumstances improve.

The paper explores how Russia's actions between now and NST's expiry could affect those options. Even in case of a Russian buildup beyond NST's central limits, considering certain unilateral measures would still be sensible, such as commitments not to develop and deploy destabilizing capabilities. And in the scenario of a continuation of the status quo of Russia's noncompliance with NST but de facto adherence to its central limits, bilateral agreements or political commitments would be possible, assuming creative diplomacy and political will on both sides. In any case, the United States has arms control options that could further core national security interests.