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Nuclear Disarmament

Nuclear disarmament refers to the act, by unilateral decision or international agreement, of reducing or eliminating the total number of nuclear weapons worldwide, with the end goal of a nuclear-free world. RAND research has provided policymakers with guidance and analysis on options for reduction or elimination of nuclear arsenals and the long-term enforcement of international nuclear disarmament.

Report

Is There a Better Way to Negotiate with North Korea?

The failure of recent efforts by the United States to engage North Korea in denuclearization talks calls for a different approach. A new method that addresses the reasons for past failures and reflects current realities offers promising ways forward.

Oct 26, 2020
Commentary

North Korea Has Agreed to Denuclearization. Trump Could Try to Make It Happen

President Trump came into office determined to rein in the North Korean nuclear weapons program. But it has become quite clear that North Korea has no intention of giving it up. How might the United States bring North Korea into compliance with its denuclearization commitments?

Sep 28, 2020
Commentary

In North Korea, The U.S. Could Take the Lead

North Korea is hurting: its economy is stagnant and it is having trouble feeding even its elites because of the UN/U.S. sanctions designed to pressure North Korean toward denuclearization. A combined carrot and stick approach may help overcome some of North Korea's reluctance to negotiate the future of its nuclear weapons program.

Aug 17, 2020
Commentary

Moon's North Korea Vision Up in Smoke? Not So Fast…

Even after North Korea's demolition of the inter-Korean liaison office, it appears that South Korean President Moon Jae-in will continue to prioritize improving inter-Korean relations. What are the implications of this strategy?

Jul 20, 2020
Commentary

Take the Bird in the Hand. Strike a Nuclear Weapons Deal with Russia

By extending New START, the Trump administration would preserve verifiable constraints on Russia's nuclear arsenal, buy time to negotiate a more comprehensive agreement, and pave the way for arms talks about intermediate-range missiles.

Jul 1, 2020
Commentary

North Korean Provocations, Not Denuclearization

Kim Jong-un's reappearance raises questions about the course of U.S.–North Korea relationships in the coming year. What should we expect? What can we learn from the past?

May 8, 2020
Commentary

The Coronavirus and North Korea: Is There a Cure for Kim's Nuclear Blackmail?

Despite the pandemic, North Korea's recent activities suggest that Kim Jong Un will likely stay the course in his ongoing campaign against the United States and the broader Northeast Asia region.

Apr 13, 2020
Commentary

New START Is Not NAFTA

The 2010 New START Treaty with Russia reduces long-range nuclear arms. President Trump may seek a different deal, however, as he did in renegotiating NAFTA. But NAFTA talks succeeded because America had predominant leverage and because Canada and Mexico are friends. Neither holds true with Russia.

Apr 8, 2020
Commentary

Maximizing Bargaining Leverage with Beijing: Developing Missiles as Bargaining Chips

Arms negotiations may offer the only way to reduce the grave threat posed to the United States and allied security by China's missiles. U.S. owned and operated missiles could provide the best bargaining chips.

Apr 3, 2020
Report

The Military Case for Extending New START

The most prudent course of action would be for Washington to extend the U.S.-Russia New START agreement before it expires in February 2021. This would constrain Russia's nuclear forces covered by the treaty for five more years. And it would buy time to pursue multilateral negotiations that also include China.

Feb 14, 2020
Commentary

North Korea: Selling Political Deception

Why did Kim Jong-un substitute releasing the North Korean Workers' Party Plenary report instead of his traditional New Year's address? As with many things in North Korea, we do not know, forcing us to speculate.

Jan 3, 2020
Commentary

Stability in Northeast Asia and the North Korean 'Christmas Present'

North Korea's extreme rhetoric is worrying people in Northeast Asia. Pyongyang is threatening a presumably violent “Christmas gift” to the United States at the same time that Washington's patience with Pyongyang has worn thin.

Dec 24, 2019
Commentary

North Korea Holds Most of the Cards in Nuclear Negotiations

North Korea has been reminding the United States that the window to negotiate a nuclear deal is closing. Pyongyang will likely continue trying to force Washington's hand into a deal that allows North Korea to keep its weapons while still reaping economic and political concessions.

Dec 20, 2019
Commentary

One Year After Singapore: The North Korea Problem Is Bigger Than Nukes

After two summits between the United States and North Korea, and little to show in the way of deliverables on dismantlement, hopes that a third summit may yield a denuclearization deal seem a bit unrealistic. Essentially, there has been no indication of intent on Kim's part to denuclearize. But the North Korea problem is much greater than nukes.

Jun 17, 2019
Commentary

Downplaying North Korea's Missile Tests Carries Risks

North Korea test-fired short-range ballistic missiles for the first time in 18 months. President Trump is downplaying the tests, refusing to call them a violation of U.N. Security Council resolutions. But if North Korea starts testing longer-range missiles, it could become harder for Washington to return to talks, risking the end of diplomacy with Pyongyang altogether.

Jun 5, 2019
Testimony

What the Demise of the INF Could Mean for Russia-China Relations

The U.S.-Russia impasse and effective collapse in recent months of the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces Treaty (INF) will likely affect Russia-China relations. The impact will depend on future U.S. and Russian decisions about INF missiles and on the broader dynamics in great-power relations.

Apr 10, 2019
Commentary

After the Hanoi Summit

The best-case scenario for future U.S.-North Korea relations is that President Trump and Kim Jong-un remain committed to diplomacy. In the worst case, both countries' frustrations could spiral out of control.

Mar 13, 2019
Commentary

Declaring an End to the Korean War

President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong Un might agree at their summit this week in Hanoi, Vietnam, to declare an end to the Korean War. Since this conflict stopped 66 years ago, what would be the practical impact of such declaration?

Feb 28, 2019
Commentary

Engagement with North Korea: Small Steps May Matter More Than Big Ones

Kim Jong-Un has said he wants North Korea to become a normal country. Agreeing to a series of short-term measures could reveal his truthfulness as much as large measures could. This could also pave the way to eventually achieving the larger goals.

Feb 21, 2019
Commentary

Hard to Predict Outcome of Second Trump-Kim Summit

It's difficult to predict the outcome of the second summit between Kim Jong-Un and Donald Trump. At the first, Kim offered to fully denuclearize during President Trump's first term. But he continued building nuclear weapons and ballistic missiles. If Kim keeps stalling, serious tensions could follow.

Feb 6, 2019

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