An Examination of Migration in Afghanistan

Seasonal migration plays a critical role in stabilizing rural economies and sustaining the livelihoods of agricultural households. Violence and civil conflict have long been thought to disrupt these labor flows, but this hypothesis has historically been difficult to test due to the lack of reliable data on migration in conflict zones.

Xiao Hui Tai, an assistant professor in the Department of Statistics at University of California, Davis, will discuss her examination of this hypothesis. Focusing on Afghanistan during the eight-year period prior to the Taliban’s takeover in 2021, she demonstrates how satellite imagery can be used to infer the timing of the opium harvest, which employs a large number of seasonal workers in relatively well-paid jobs. Hui Tai and her team then utilized a dataset of nationwide mobile phone records to characterize the migration response to this harvest and examine whether and how violence and civil conflict disrupt this migration.

About the Speaker

Xiao Hui Tai is an assistant professor in the Department of Statistics at University of California, Davis. She is interested in using large-scale, granular sources of data, and statistical and machine learning methods, to measure and study human behavior. Her current research focuses on global public health and estimating the consequences of violent conflict.

Contact

Contact Cheryl Patalano with questions about the event.