Winners of the RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge
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The RAND Forecasting Initiative is pleased to congratulate the winners of the RAND x Metaculus Policy Challenge, a student forecasting competition run in partnership with Metaculus.
Forecasters made predictions across 21 policy-relevant questions, including topics such as North Korea's nuclear testing, coup risk in Africa, and Russia's economic growth. The contest offered prizes for both forecasting accuracy and strong comments identifying Key Factors that could drive future outcomes.
Congratulations to the top finishers on the accuracy leaderboard!
- kenneth_c — $927
- BlakeDuvall — $785
- Hippopotamus_bartholomeus — $774
- kv_bhasin — $752
- cnilemc — $615
We're also pleased to recognize the winners of the Key Factor commentary prizes. These prizes were awarded for strong comments that identified important drivers of future outcomes and explained how those factors should affect forecasts.
| Username | Winning Comments | Prize |
|---|---|---|
| Bas_ | 13 | $1,600 |
| gabrielthomison | 6 | $1,200 |
| bmazze99 | 2 | $400 |
| david.choldin | 1 | $200 |
| kenneth_c | 1 | $200 |
| kv_bhasin | 1 | $200 |
Per the tournament rules, commentary prizes are limited to registered university students and capped at $1,600 per person.
Beyond the cash prizes awarded by Metaculus, RAND will reach out directly to selected participants about career-development opportunities connected to the RAND Forecasting Initiative, including potential RAND Pro Forecaster status, future blog features, and invitations to RAND-related events or networking opportunities.
Metaculus will contact prize winners with next steps for prize distribution.
Thanks to everyone who participated, and congratulations to the winners!