Meet the RFI Adjuncts

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The RAND Forecasting Initiative (RFI) has selected six Pro Forecasters as RFI Adjuncts within RAND's Defense and Political Science Department. As adjuncts, this team of experienced forecasters will be collaborating with researchers across RAND to build up the organization's internal forecasting capabilities.

Adjuncts will mentor teams of RAND staff, provide coaching on forecasting best practices on the RFI platform and collaborate on research efforts. While serving in this new capacity, adjuncts will also continue their contributions as members of the RFI Pro Forecaster community.

We are pleased to publicly introduce the six adjuncts as they get started in their new roles:

Scott Eastman: Based in Romania for 18 years, this 12-year forecasting veteran and Superforecaster^® brings deep insights into Ukraine, the Middle East, EU affairs, epidemiology, AI, and nuclear risks. Proficient in Romanian and French, with limited Russian, his proximity and involvement with Ukraine provides a unique perspective on regional dynamics. Originally trained in documentary production and fine art photography, Eastman brings both analytical precision and creative vision to his forecasting.

Karen Hagar: is a distinguished social scientist with 14 years of forecasting experience, earning recognition as the #2 forecaster in the 2011-13 IARPA Ace Competition and being designated a Superforecaster^® since 2014. Her expertise spans anthropology, archaeology, human behavior, and cultural analysis. A respected National Security scholar, she has extensive knowledge in emergency management and geopolitics. Hagar is also a licensed master of social work with a focus on policy. Proficient in French, Hebrew, Spanish, and Akimel O'odham (Pima Tribe), she brings a global perspective to the team. In addition to her academic achievements, she owns and manages multiple businesses, including a 501(c)(3) nonprofit and several LLCs.

Trent Hesslink: A retired submarine officer in the U.S. Navy, Hesslink draws on 30+ years of military leadership and expertise in nuclear weapons, geopolitical conflict, and policymaking. Hesslink's strong history in engineering management, leading teams, and as a technology executive lends a unique perspective to his forecasting. A former faculty member at the National War College, Hesslink developed and taught several graduate courses in international negotiations, nuclear deterrence, and forecasting and foresight in national security decision-making.

Marc Koehler: is a former Good Judgment executive and Superforecaster^® leveraging three decades of diplomatic experience, particularly in Chinese and Asian affairs. He boasts an array of forecasting accolades, including ranking #1 on a version of the U.S. Intelligence Community Prediction Market and designing and co-teaching several university courses related to forecasting. A former U.S. Diplomat, Koehler's expertise spans geopolitics, international security, and global public health, complemented by proficiency in Chinese, Swedish, Nepalese, and French. These days, Koehler also serves as a volunteer firefighter in his home county in Colorado.

Geoff Odlum: A former U.S. diplomat, Odlum brings nearly 30 years of Foreign Service experience in nuclear nonproliferation, counterterrorism, European and Middle East security, and emerging technologies. His background in WMD risk mitigation and international negotiations as well as proficiency in Persian, French, and German informs his research and forecasting. Some of his recent projects include serving as a Special Government Expert for the National Security Commission on Artificial Intelligence (NSCAI), building NATO member state capacity to protect critical & emerging technologies from adversarial exploitation, and managing DoD-funded accelerator programs for international dual-use technology startups.

Tamara Savage: With a Ph.D. in Engineering and Public Policy at Carnegie Mellon University, Savage specializes in emerging technologies. Her dissertation developed innovative methods for improving technology forecasting by including policy, economic, and social factors, with the ultimate goal to improve government decision-making. Her unique perspectives on emerging technologies, particularly in AI, climate, and energy are informed by experiences in State government and at the National Science Foundation. Savage was also a former RAND Summer Associate with the National Security Research Division.