As far-fetched as it may seem to those in the West, the Kremlin's claim that the recent terrorist attack on a Moscow concert hall was orchestrated by Ukraine and Western powers may be convincing to many Russians.
Even as Russian President Vladimir Putin himself has acknowledged that the attack was carried out by Islamic militants, the Kremlin and Russian media have focused blame on Ukrainian nationalism and Western powers bent on destroying Russia. Russia's parliament this week opened an investigation of U.S. and other NATO countries' involvement in financing terror, following the March 22 attack that left at least 143 people dead and many more injured.
The reasons Russia is promoting such an unlikely narrative are simple. First, as Russian journalist Stanislav Kucher and others have pointed out, blaming the terror group ISIS-K was “inconvenient,” particularly given that Russian intelligence appeared to have ignored American warnings of an ISIS-K attack in Moscow. Suggesting the attack was fueled by a powerful Western-Ukrainian conspiracy could make it easier for the Kremlin to explain why it failed to prevent the deadliest terrorist attack on Russian soil in decades. The altered narrative is particularly important given that the attack came on the heels of Putin's reelection, which has been framed as increasing the stability and safety of Russia. It could also boost support for the war and additional mobilization efforts.…
The remainder of this commentary is available at thecipherbrief.com.
Ryan Bauer is a senior defense analyst at RAND, a nonprofit, nonpartisan research institution. His research primarily focuses on information warfare and information operations, disinformation and messaging, Russian security issues, and emergency preparedness.
