Lessons from Bosnia

This report documents the August 5, 1993 proceedings of the first in a series of RAND seminars entitled "Lesser Regional Crises/Peace Enforcement." It includes four essays: "Turning Points in Bosnia and the West" by Jim Steinberg, examines whether a different reaction by the United States, the West, or the international community at large at different points in the Bosnia crisis might have produced preferable results. The author also assesses what we can learn from this crisis in dealing with future ones. "Turning Points in Bosnia and the Region," by Alan Fogelquist, describes the various stages in the evolution of the fighting in Bosnia and changes in the strategies of the protagonists. The author describes some ominous new scenarios that the crisis may still produce. Cheryl Benard, who has interviewed some 250 Bosnians in camps in Europe, analyzes the dynamics of ethnic cleansing. In "Bosnia: Was it Inevitable?" she raises questions about the degree of popular support for Serb expansionism, and asks whether current Western policy might be unwittingly encouraging ethnic nationalism. And in "Bosnia as Future," author Albert Wohlstetter outlines a strategy that the United States and the other democracies should follow now in dealing with the ongoing conflicts in Bosnia. In doing so, he argues that Bosnia is a test case for likely future conflicts across Europe, making it all the more important that the aggressors in Bosnia be defeated.