East Asia's Potential for Instability & Crisis
Implications for the United States and Korea
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Revised versions of papers first presented at a conference jointly sponsored by RAND's Center for Asia-Pacific Policy and the Sejong Institute in Santa Monica, California, in February 1995. The papers fall into five categories: China's future, regional military capabilities, future international economic arrangements and trends, the future of the U.S.-Korean alliance, and the future of U.S.-Japan relations. The papers find much cause for optimism, although the analyses highlight a wide spectrum of possibilities and contingencies that could develop in a broader process of political, economic, and security realignment. There are also some more negative scenarios.
Table of Contents
Section I
China's Future
Chapter One
Leadership Succession in China: Implications for Domestic and Regional Stability
Chapter Two
Post-Deng China and Northeast Asia: Invitation to Instability?
Section II
Regional Military Capabilities
Chapter Three
Military Technology Acquisition and Regional Stability in East Asia
Chapter Four
Putting Muzzles on the "Dragons": Military Buildup and Regional Security in East Asia
Section III
Future International Economic Arrangements and Trends
Chapter Five
The World Trading System in Crisis: The United States, East Asia, and the 'No-Patsy' Principle
Chapter Six
The Eagle, The Goose, and the Dragon: Cagemates in the Asia-Pacific Trade Order?
Section IV
The Future of the U.S.-Korean Alliance
Chapter Seven
Future Developments on the Korean Peninsula and the U.S.-ROK Alliance
Chapter Eight
Future Developments on the Korean Peninsula: Implications for the United States and Korea
Section V
The Future of U.S.-Japan Relations
Chapter Nine
The Future of Japan-U.S. Security Relations: The Challenge of Adversity to Alliance Durability
Chapter Ten
Prospects for the U.S.-Japan Relationship in the Post-Cold War Era
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