East Asia's Potential for Instability & Crisis

Implications for the United States and Korea

Edited by Jonathan D. Pollack, Hyun-Dong Kim


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Revised versions of papers first presented at a conference jointly sponsored by RAND's Center for Asia-Pacific Policy and the Sejong Institute in Santa Monica, California, in February 1995. The papers fall into five categories: China's future, regional military capabilities, future international economic arrangements and trends, the future of the U.S.-Korean alliance, and the future of U.S.-Japan relations. The papers find much cause for optimism, although the analyses highlight a wide spectrum of possibilities and contingencies that could develop in a broader process of political, economic, and security realignment. There are also some more negative scenarios.

Table of Contents

  • Section I

    China's Future

  • Chapter One

    Leadership Succession in China: Implications for Domestic and Regional Stability

    Michael D. Swaine

  • Chapter Two

    Post-Deng China and Northeast Asia: Invitation to Instability?

    Jae-Cheol Kim & Hong Pyo Lee

  • Section II

    Regional Military Capabilities

  • Chapter Three

    Military Technology Acquisition and Regional Stability in East Asia

    Ashley J. Tellis

  • Chapter Four

    Putting Muzzles on the "Dragons": Military Buildup and Regional Security in East Asia

    Taehyun Kim

  • Section III

    Future International Economic Arrangements and Trends

  • Chapter Five

    The World Trading System in Crisis: The United States, East Asia, and the 'No-Patsy' Principle

    Julia Lowell

  • Chapter Six

    The Eagle, The Goose, and the Dragon: Cagemates in the Asia-Pacific Trade Order?

    Jin-Young Chung

  • Section IV

    The Future of the U.S.-Korean Alliance

  • Chapter Seven

    Future Developments on the Korean Peninsula and the U.S.-ROK Alliance

    Norman D. Levin

  • Chapter Eight

    Future Developments on the Korean Peninsula: Implications for the United States and Korea

    Hyun-Dong Kim

  • Section V

    The Future of U.S.-Japan Relations

  • Chapter Nine

    The Future of Japan-U.S. Security Relations: The Challenge of Adversity to Alliance Durability

    Courtney Purrington

  • Chapter Ten

    Prospects for the U.S.-Japan Relationship in the Post-Cold War Era

    Myonwoo Lee

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