Timing of Child Replacement Effects on Fertility in Malaysia

by Constantijn (Stan) Panis, Lee A. Lillard

Download eBook for Free

FormatFile SizeNotes
PDF file 1.8 MB

Use Adobe Acrobat Reader version 10 or higher for the best experience.

This paper is concerned with marital fertility and focuses especially on the timing of responses triggered by experienced child mortality. The death of a child is immediately taken into account in the fertility decision process; it may have both instantaneous and lagged, semi-parametric effects on the hazard of a conception. The authors present a rigorous, new method to derive replacement rates from hazard model estimates. The analysis is applied to micro-data from Peninsular Malaysia over the period 1950-1988. Replacement rates ranged from near-zero to 0.5, depending on the child's sex, parity, age at death and ethnicity. Even though infant and child mortality rates have dropped dramatically over the period of this sample, child replacement has been only a minor contributing factor to the fertility decline. Women in the Chinese subpopulation exhibit son preference in their fertility behavior, whereas Malay women do not exhibit preference for a particular gender composition of their offspring.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation draft series. The unrestricted draft was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003 that represented preliminary or prepublication versions of other more formal RAND products for distribution to appropriate external audiences. The draft could be considered similar to an academic discussion paper. Although unrestricted drafts had been approved for circulation, they were not usually formally edited or peer reviewed.

Permission is given to duplicate this electronic document for personal use only, as long as it is unaltered and complete. Copies may not be duplicated for commercial purposes. Unauthorized posting of RAND PDFs to a non-RAND Web site is prohibited. RAND PDFs are protected under copyright law. For information on reprint and linking permissions, please visit the RAND Permissions page.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.