Analysis of US Energy Scenarios

Meta-Scenarios, Pathways, and Policy Implications

Published in: Technological Forecasting and Social Change, v. 70, no. 4, May 2003, p. 297-315

Posted on RAND.org on January 01, 2003

by Richard Silberglitt, Anders Hove, Peter Shulman

Read More

Access further information on this document at www.ingentaconnect.com

This article was published outside of RAND. The full text of the article can be found at the link above.

This manuscript reviews a collection of recent energy scenarios from a policy and planning perspective and compares these scenarios quantitatively with respect to US energy consumption, energy efficiency, and carbon content of the fuel mix in 2020. Carbon efficiency, a combined measure of the effects of energy efficiency and decarbonization, is defined and is shown to be proportional to the product of energy efficiency and the inverse of the carbon content of the fuel efficiency and the results used to define a set of stylized meta-scenarios that span a broad range of possible US energy futures. Pathways to these meta-scenarios and implications for US energy policy are discussed in comparison to past and present US energy experience.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation External publication series. Many RAND studies are published in peer-reviewed scholarly journals, as chapters in commercial books, or as documents published by other organizations.

Our mission to help improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis is enabled through our core values of quality and objectivity and our unwavering commitment to the highest level of integrity and ethical behavior. To help ensure our research and analysis are rigorous, objective, and nonpartisan, we subject our research publications to a robust and exacting quality-assurance process; avoid both the appearance and reality of financial and other conflicts of interest through staff training, project screening, and a policy of mandatory disclosure; and pursue transparency in our research engagements through our commitment to the open publication of our research findings and recommendations, disclosure of the source of funding of published research, and policies to ensure intellectual independence. For more information, visit www.rand.org/about/principles.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.