Can Adolescents Predict Significant Life Events?
Published in: Journal of Adolescent Health, v. 41, no. 2, Aug. 2007, p. 208-210
Posted on RAND.org on December 31, 2006
The authors examine whether adolescents' probability judgments for significant life events are predictive and accurate. We find significant correlations with actual experiences, reported on successive waves of a national survey. Mean probability judgments approximated observed outcome rates, or were optimistic, except that adolescents greatly overestimated their probability of dying prematurely.