Rail Demand Forecasting Estimation Study

Phase Reports

Published in: GOV.UK, Rail network, 21 April 2017

Posted on RAND.org on April 27, 2017

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This study is concerned with quantifying how variables outside of the control of the rail industry,commonly termed external factors, impact upon the demand for rail travel. These variables tend to be key drivers of rail demand, with employment and income recognised as being particularly important drivers of demand in the recommendations of the railway industry's Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook (PDFH). The review suggests a new forecasting methodology and set of recommended forecasting parameters. Government has decided to wait until the Passenger Demand Forecasting Council has produced the Passenger Demand Forecasting Handbook 6.0 forecasting guidance before including it in WebTAG guidance. This includes answering questions not currently covered in this report.

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