Induced Travel Demand

An Evidence Review

Published in: gov.uk/Department for Transport (2018)

Posted on RAND.org on November 28, 2018

by Fay Dunkerley, James Fox, Andrew Daly, James Laird, Bryan Whittaker

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WSP and RAND Europe were commissioned by the Department for Transport (DfT) to undertake a literature review of the evidence on two key analytical questions that will inform the development of the second Road Investment Strategy 2 (RIS2) covering investment in the English strategic road network between 2020 and 2025.

  1. What does the evidence say on traffic growth trends? Will there be the demand for investment in new roads?
  2. What does the evidence say on induced demand? It was emphasised that the aim of this study is to review 'new' research/evidence and not to make recommendations about changes to modelling/appraisal methods. Further, the literature review should identify high quality literature and cover European and wider international evidence, as is relevant to the DfT.1.1.4.

The evidence from the literature review on induced demand is presented in this report. The implications of the evidence for economic appraisal of transport projects are also discussed. Evidence on traffic growth trends is presented in a separate report.

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