Decision Making Under Deep Uncertainty

Climate Change and Infrastructure Management

Published in: The Oxford Handbook of Planning for Climate Change Hazards (Sept 2018). doi: 10.1093/oxfordhb/9780190455811.013.50

by Kelly Klima, W. Tad Pfeffer, Joel B. Smith, Kristie L. Ebi

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Decision making under questions of deep uncertainty can be vague or specific, open-ended or fixed, easy or hard. This chapter very briefly addresses issues and approaches to decision making on adaptation to climate change. Depending on the research question, a complicated set of multiple approaches and tools may be needed. To highlight the types of approaches, this chapter discusses a variety of decisionmaking tools and relates them to a particular problem: a homeowner choosing whether to do nothing, buy insurance, or elevate their home. The chapter culminates in a table summarizing the pros and cons of a variety of approaches.

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