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China's recent reforms have led to unprecedented economic growth; if this continues, China will be able to turn its great potential power into actual power. The result could be, in the very long term, the rise of China as a rival to the United States as the world's predominant power; in the nearer term, China could become a significant rival in the East Asian region. In this context, the issue for U.S. policy is how to handle a rising power, a problem that predominant powers have faced many times throughout history. It is the contention of this report that the future Sino-U.S. context will illustrate many of the problems of deterrence theory that have been discussed in recent decades; deterrence theory will be, in general, more difficult to apply than it was in the U.S.-Soviet Cold War context. The key may be to seek nonmilitary means of deterrence, i.e., diplomatic ways to manipulate the tension to China's disadvantage.

Table of Contents

  • Preface PDF

  • Summary PDF

  • Acknowledgements

    Acknowledgments PDF

  • Abbreviations PDF

  • Chapter One

    Introduction PDF

  • Chapter Two

    The Role of Deterrence in U.S. China Policy PDF

  • Chapter Three

    The Historical Record PDF

  • Chapter Four

    Deterrence in the Context of Sino-U.S. Relations PDF

  • Chapter Five

    Deterrence and Its Discontents PDF

  • Chapter Six

    Deterring China in the Future PDF

  • Appendix

    Chinese "Deterrence Attempts: Failures and Successes PDF

  • Bibliography PDF

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