NATO Enlargement, 2000-2015

Determinants and Implications for Defense Planning and Shaping

by Thomas S. Szayna


Free Electronic Option

Note: Many electronic documents posted prior to 2003 are available as chapter PDFs or HTML files linked from the Contents.


Purchase Print Copy

 FormatList Price Price
Add to Cart Paperback186 pages $15.00 $12.00 20% Web Discount

In the 1990s, NATO began a course of enlargement and transformation to remain relevant in Europe's post-Cold War security environment. As part of its commitment to enlargement, it admitted three new members — Poland, Hungary, and the Czech Republic — in 1999 and has plans to admit more countries in the future. NATO's enlargement has profound military implications for the United States and its allies in terms of future planning and shaping strategies. Its enlargement and its transformation, from an organization for the collective defense of its members to one whose mission includes conflict prevention and conflict management throughout Europe (including beyond its treaty area), have both been driven primarily by political imperatives; i.e., not by a sense of direct threat, but by an environment-shaping agenda of democratization and integration. This report develops and applies an analytical framework for thinking about the determinants of future NATO enlargement, the specific defense challenges they pose, and shaping policies that might aid in addressing these challenges. The approximately twelve countries that could conceivably join NATO in the next 10 to 15 years are evaluated according to political, strategic, and military (particularly airpower) criteria to determine where they stand in relation to NATO's established pre-conditions for membership consideration and NATO's strategic rationale for issuing invitations to join. The result is a rating of each potential member's relative readiness for and likelihood of acceding to NATO.

Table of Contents

  • Preface PDF

  • Figures PDF

  • Tables PDF

  • Summary PDF

  • Acknowledgements

    Acknowledgments PDF

  • Chapter 1

    Introduction PDF

  • Chapter 2

    The Planning Context PDF

  • Chapter 3

    Patterns in the Enlargement Process PDF

  • Chapter 4

    Assessing Candidates for Future Accession to NATO PDF

  • Chapter 5

    Shaping the Forces of Aspiring Members PDF

  • Chapter 6

    Conclusions PDF

  • Appendix

    Inventory of Aircraft and Helicopters in the MAP States PDF

  • References PDF

Research conducted by

This research was conducted within RAND's Project AIR FORCE.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation monograph report series. The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.