Population Displacement and Migration in Developing Countries

An Exploratory Study in the Development of an Early Warning Decision Support System

by Allan Auclair

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This RAND Corporation report identifies and explores a method of predicting the risk of large-scale displacements of human populations using a set of key environmental indicators. It characterizes worldwide trends in population displacement over the past three decades in view of illustrating the enormity of the problem in demonstrating why it poses a growing threat to international security and stability. A number of research and development initiatives are in progress that build on the findings in the study. This report should be of particular interest to agencies whose responsibilities include issues of US national security, the planning and conduct of complex humanitarian operations such as disaster relief and peacekeeping, and to those agencies whose tasks are to assess the risk and economic and societal collapse leading to failed states and regional conflict.

This report is part of the RAND Corporation monograph report series. The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.

This research in the public interest was supported by RAND, using discretionary funds made possible by the generosity of RAND's donors, the fees earned on client-funded research, and independent research and development (IR&D) funds provided by the Department of Defense.

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