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The purpose of this monograph is to provide technical detail on the data and methods the authors used to project California's General-Fund revenues and spending through 2005. The report begins with an overview that presents the policy-relevant results and implications of those projections. The results indicate that if current demographic and economic trends, tax policies, and mandated spending programs continue through the next decade, California faces a budget crisis. The long-term prospects for state support of some public service systems, including education, are consequently bleak. The bulk of the report is devoted to describing the data and methods used to estimate revenues and spending in the major budget categories. This information should be of interest to California legislators and budget analysts, as well as analysts in other research institutions and other state governments.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One

    An Overview of California's Fiscal Future

  • Chapter Two

    California's General Fund Revenue: Context and Projections

  • Chapter Three

    Projecting Health and Welfare Expenditures

  • Chapter Four

    Projecting Corrections Expenditures

  • Chapter Five

    Projecting K-14 Education Expenditures

  • Appendix

  • References

This report is part of the RAND Corporation Monograph report series. The monograph/report was a product of the RAND Corporation from 1993 to 2003. RAND monograph/reports presented major research findings that addressed the challenges facing the public and private sectors. They included executive summaries, technical documentation, and synthesis pieces.

The RAND Corporation is a nonprofit institution that helps improve policy and decisionmaking through research and analysis. RAND's publications do not necessarily reflect the opinions of its research clients and sponsors.