Dec 31, 1993
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This report assesses Cuba's current political dynamics and economic prospects, and where Cuba is headed. It analyzes the regime's major civilian and military leaders and institutions, the civil society groups emerging outside the regime, and the respective roles of all these actors in the years ahead. It then evaluates how current U.S. policy, and the options of tightening or lifting the embargo, might hasten or hinder the transition toward a more democratic, market-oriented Cuba. Although it cautions that the final outcome of Cuba's current transition will be determined internally rather than by U.S. policy, the report concludes by proposing a new, bolder U.S. strategy to help accelerate the process of fundamental change on the island.
Part I: Cuba in Transition
Cuba: Heading for Safe or Perilous Waters?
Domestic Factors Affecting Cuban Outcomes
Regime Leaders, Tendencies, and Institutional Players
Civil Society Actors
Part II: U.S. Policy and Cuba
Present U.S. Policy and Its Options
U.S. Policy Options and Cuban Futures
A Proactive Policy for Cuba
Actors, Models, and Endgames