Strategic Exposure

Proliferation Around the Mediterranean

by Ian O. Lesser, Ashley J. Tellis


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The proliferation of weapons of mass destruction — nuclear, chemical and biological — and the means for their delivery at ever longer ranges has emerged as a leading issue in the post-Cold War debate about international security and as a prominent concern of U.S. policymakers and Army planners. Nowhere are the effects of proliferation trends felt more keenly than around the Mediterranean, where the European and Middle Eastern security environments meet, and where NATO allies are increasingly exposed to the spillover effects of instability to the south. This analysis explores proliferation trends in North Africa and the Levant (the Eastern Mediterranean and its hinterlands), the motives of proliferators around the region, and the implications for European security and for U.S., NATO, and Army policy.

Table of Contents

  • Chapter One


  • Chapter Two

    Motives for Acquiring Weapons of Mass Destruction

  • Chapter Three

    Strategic Consequences of WMD Proliferation on Europe's Southern Periphery

  • Chapter Four


  • Appendix

  • Bibliography

    Selected Bibliography

Research conducted by

This report summarizes research on "Weapons of Mass Destruction in North Africa and the Levant: The Search for Strategic Weight and the Political-Military Implications for the United States," a project sponsored by the Deputy Chief of Staff for Intelligence, U.S. Army, and conducted in the Arroyo Center's Strategy and Doctrine Program.

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