Projecting Future Accessions to the Selected Reserve Components

William McNaught

Published 1981

The undermanning of Army Selected Reserve Units has been one of the problems encountered by the Defense Department in managing the all-volunteer force. This Note describes an initial attempt to monitor and project Reserve accessions and to determine the causes of changes in accession levels between 1973 and 1979. It was found that (1) national unemployment rates significantly affect the accession rates of nonprior-service personnel and (2) prior-service accession rates are less sensitive than nonprior-service to unemployment changes. Combining estimated unemployment elasticities with unemployment and population trends, the author predicts decreases in reserve enlistments through the 1980s.

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McNaught, William, Projecting Future Accessions to the Selected Reserve Components. Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, 1981. https://www.rand.org/pubs/notes/N1563.html.
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